Investing 102

[glassman]

Well said you guys.
Todd, I'm seeing the same thing here in the Bay Area, my main market being the East Bay (read, mostly middle management/engineer types, not the mega wealthy of the peninsula). Certain zip codes around here didn't go down proportionately to the average going down of other areas (read, mid to lower middle class) and those area continue to be strong in the real estate market. But i've only got a "bottom feeder" read on the real estate market (my glass company does a great deal of escrow transactions and i'm now doing glass/window inspections for people willing to pay for my reports).

Personally, i do not think this type of market (real estate) is sustainable, i can't see the masses and number of well paying jobs growing at the same rate as consumerism., But, thats just my opinion, i'm probably off 180*.

Like you said Greg, slow and steady investing is what "wins the race"...

Isn't investing, buy what you know? and since i know alot about housing, location, maintence, building, litigation etc, i should be focusing on buying REIT's or a duplex or fourplex or commercial property...But I don't, primarily cause i dont have the large capitol required in this market area., .in the mean time, i continue to save, maximize my pension contributions, moniter my Schwab accounts (minor stock investion) and buy down my mortage (fixed @ 2.75%, 10 years left)....

[LuxurySportCoupe]

It's kind of scary looking at my generation in the future (I'm 26). Everyone my age just spends and spends without thinking about their future at all. Everyone has to have the latest and greatest phone, etc. When it comes to housing, no-down payment loans have become the norm, and I get funny looks when I tell people that I got a 15 year term on my house. When it comes to cars or anything else, if the money isn't there, well, let's just take out another loan! Most my age only see a monthly payment, with no real understanding of what things cost, or even the value of a dollar. A few of my friends get it, but when I bring up investing to most, the response I get is "that sounds like some real wolf of wall street stuff." Here in Michigan, the average wage is low too, so it's not like everyone is going to sock away enough cash to retire on without investing. Anyway, the housing market around here has plenty of buyers or want to be buyers, but not much inventory. I just bought a house last year, and when I was looking, it seemed like there was no middle ground for pricing, there were either small houses that needed alot of work in the 40-50k range, or houses that are 150k+ (I know that sounds cheap to alot of you, but like I said, the average wage is low around here. I'm at $20/hr and my friends think I'm rolling in piles of cash, lmao).

[Vegas69]

I made my post sound kind of doom and gloom. I don't believe that is the case. Our median price is still 95k below when the balloon popped and we have a low median at $220,000. Affordability is still good.

The construction industry, consumer spending, and stagnant median price with a shortage of inventory makes me think we are getting closer to the next cycle.

I do think the short term is solid. My real point, start preparing NOW to take advantage of the next Winter. They always come!

[ironworks]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

I made my post sound kind of doom and gloom. I don't believe that is the case. Our median price is still 95k below when the balloon popped and we have a low median at $220,000. Affordability is still good.

The construction industry, consumer spending, and stagnant median price with a shortage of inventory makes me think we are getting closer to the next cycle.

I do think the short term is solid. My real point, start preparing NOW to take advantage of the next Winter. They always come!

If I had to guess I would say the economy is better in Las Vegas then alot of places. Cars are selling, I know that. Its a much different deal in my area with the price of oil. It will be interesting to see what happens with this next election.

[GregWeld]

So once again the FED leaves the rate unchanged.... and that tells you the economy is just "okay". Globally we know various countries are loaded with debt and economies that aren't great.... China's "customers" (everyone else in the world) are not buying what they were - but let's not forget China is "slowing" to "only" 7% growth. The USA hasn't seen 7% growth in like "forever"!! OMG what we wouldn't give to just have 5% growth!!

We know that oil can be a big contributor to "inflation" - and obviously it's not inflating anything... This is good and bad. Good for "us" with cheaper gasoline and heating oil... but if you're in oil (me) - it sucks!

And WOW! If you were in Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) you're getting murdered! Was this a "priced for perfection" stock?? You always have to be on guard if you're in stocks that have that type of share price!

[96z28ss]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

. But here's something that might be contributing...... I used to get a new phone whenever my "2 years" was up - because it was a cheap upgrade by just extending my phone contract. NOW!?!?! They want me to pay full price for the new toy.... to which I say - Heck no! My current phone is just fine.

So is that having an affect on sales all across the board? No new phone - no reason to go into the store - therefore no "extra" sales because of a lack of interest/traffic??

I don't know - but it's certainly interesting! Is there a fundamental change in the wind --- or are we just seeing a weak consumer or both??

I was thinking the same thing. I just recently got a new phone and was shocked to learn I had to buy the phone. Even if you go for the 2 year payment plan on the purchase of the phone. Your cell bill went up that much.
I think this will hurt sales of the phone for a couple years till everyone is conditioned to it.
Will it effect Att and verison stock also? If people keep phones longer they can't lock people to 2 year contracts anymore. Makes it easier for people to jump to another carrier.
Prices for good used phones must be going up also.

[glassman]

Todd, fyi, i didn't see your post as negative at all. I saw it as "it is what it is", mine may have seemed to "negative nancy".....I would have to say i'm neither an optimist or pessimist, i'm a realist.

[Vegas69]

Originally Posted by ironworks

If I had to guess I would say the economy is better in Las Vegas then alot of places. Cars are selling, I know that. Its a much different deal in my area with the price of oil. It will be interesting to see what happens with this next election.

That's a good point, it comes down to what dictates your life. Local influence or continental. For me it's both. With a majority being local at this point with my business and real estate holdings.

I do have to wonder how many are judging the current economy by the unrealistic trends last decade? Everybody was making money and flush. It was EASY. That's not how it's supposed to be. It does take hard work and faith to be successful with any sticking power.

Bottom line, pay attention, analyze the market and try not to get caught with your short around your ankles.

I still go back to the fact that the stock market has been strong. Look at the 5 year charts. Our local real estate market has been strong for nearly 5 years. The national market has done well too. For me, it's been a huge Spring. I'm ready take advantage of those gains and prepare for the next wave. Maybe I've just worked my ass off, but I'm not taking any chances.

[JKnight]

Here in Phoenix, in my micro-economy (neighborhood), we had a nice real estate run through September-ish 2015, it seems as though things have cooled significantly since then. Not a decline, just not the substantial growth seen in the prior 4 years. Given the run up though, I think it's more sustainable than the prior bubble. I'm expecting a pull-back, but not necessarily a collapse. Housing wise anyway...

[GregWeld]

We should have all bought a million bucks worth of AMAZON (AMZN) this morning!

Just WOW! What a beat! The polar opposite of Apple (AAPL).

I don't know about you guys - and I don't own the stock - but I buy EVERYTHING on Amazon Prime and I mean EVERYTHING. Some days we get two boxes a day from them. I even bought my load leveling hitch for the new truck and trailer from them. And the new compressor for the trailer etc.

I only wish it paid a dividend - but you guys are different - you're not living in retirement (yet). If you'd have owned Amazon last week - maybe you'd be retiring early!! LOL

While you're looking.... check out the 485 P/E..... versus Apple (AAPL) 10.55 P/E --- Talk about being "priced for perfection"!! WOW!!