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SSLance 06-13-2014 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 555652)
I'd be all over it. But keep it real. Only money you can truly afford to play with.


In 2004 I invested in a start up. That $385,000 returned $20M in 2010. So it's okay to take on risk if the rest of your life is good to go.

Well, my brokerage house doesn't have access to the pre-IPO shares, so it looks like I'll have to open an account with Level3 to get any of the pre release shares or just buy it on the open if I want.

I still haven't decided what to do...

GregWeld 06-13-2014 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 555871)
Well, my brokerage house doesn't have access to the pre-IPO shares, so it looks like I'll have to open an account with Level3 to get any of the pre release shares or just buy it on the open if I want.

I still haven't decided what to do...

Typically, in order for any brokerage to offer IPO's you have to be a pretty big customer. Perks like that usually start when your account is 10MM plus.

GregWeld 06-23-2014 07:14 AM

Home sales info just came out this morning and they're UP smartly.... even though there is some "moderation" in housing price RISES... and that's because the inventory is up.

I put this house up for sale the middle of May and it sold in TWO HOURS for almost full price... and the only item I had to fix on the inspection was to have the A/C serviced. The buyer is all cash - no contingencies. This seems to be the "norm" according to my two buddies that are agents. I only mention this because of the real estate connection.

So what?

Well... to me - it sends up the old interest rate balloon. When people are borrowing - then interest rates TEND to rise with demand. Yet - we still have the federal government pledging to keep rates low.. We'll see how that plays out because nobody really knows.

In the meantime the "market" seems to be just going up day after day. Yipppeeee. BUT -- I'll remind everyone -- the market doesn't go straight up day after day forever. So remember these fantastic days when the market turns against us.

Personally I'm all in.... I have the lowest cash positions that I've had in a number of years actually. And for now - that's worked out really well. There's an age old saying - "don't fight the fed". Everyone I talk to says their business is MUCH better... that they learned A LOT about business and managing their overhead etc during the downturn - and that they intend to keep their fixed costs in check and increase their profit. But more importantly - they learned the value of having low debt. That has to be good for the country in general.

GregWeld 06-23-2014 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 555871)
Well, my brokerage house doesn't have access to the pre-IPO shares, so it looks like I'll have to open an account with Level3 to get any of the pre release shares or just buy it on the open if I want.

I still haven't decided what to do...




GO PRO is selling a million cameras PER QUARTER....

Here's where I'd be concerned regardless of who or what company we are talking about... doesn't make any difference if it's an IPO or a big company like APPLE.

Every QUARTER a company reports it's earnings... that's every three months guys! And every three months - they have to meet or beat the street. Sales - profits - unit sales - and on and on... have to be growing. IF not - the stock gets crushed. Never forget this key metric. The entire market is all about growth and growth gets rewarded - misses get clobbered.


So regardless of whether or not a company is selling cameras or cell phones or bread... Your investment needs to be based on the future - and what the market thinks they'll be able to do going forward. End of story.

CamaroMike 06-23-2014 08:23 AM

I recently started an account for long term growth. Can you guys give me some input on if its a good idea and if I am diverse enough?

Im currently at 4 companies $1k basis in each company. I plan on adding at $1k increments until I hit 15-20 companies and reinvest all my dividends. Of course if there are any opportunites within I will add/subtract accordingly to how I feel about how that company is doing.

Currently with Ford, KMP, Att, Home Depot. Am I on the right path with diversity and my slow way of getting this account rolling for some big long term gains?

GregWeld 06-23-2014 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamaroMike (Post 557132)
I recently started an account for long term growth. Can you guys give me some input on if its a good idea and if I am diverse enough?

Im currently at 4 companies $1k basis in each company. I plan on adding at $1k increments until I hit 15-20 companies and reinvest all my dividends. Of course if there are any opportunites within I will add/subtract accordingly to how I feel about how that company is doing.

Currently with Ford, KMP, Att, Home Depot. Am I on the right path with diversity and my slow way of getting this account rolling for some big long term gains?




You are doing quite well! Congrats!!



Remember that your "big long term gains" are going to come with long time lines... Money doubles about every 7 to 10 years. That's IF you stay invested and you reinvest the dividends. It's all about COMPOUNDING.... 2 becomes 4 - 4 becomes 8 - 8 becomes 16 - 16 becomes 32 - 32 becomes 64....

Note how the last "doubling" is also the biggest?!?!?! 64 becomes 128

That's how ordinary earners become wealthy retirees. It's not rocket science. It's common thinking - Saving first versus pissing away every dime... and avoiding debt on high interest rate stuff like 20% credit cards.

I was discussing retirement and spending with a retired buddy yesterday. This guy never made 50K a year in his life -- and he's a millionaire just in stocks - not counting his house. They're thinking about selling the current house (paid 49K - selling for 850K and has been paid off for at least 10 years) and moving to a lower cost - less stressful area. The house they're looking at is twice as nice and half the cost. So their lifestyle will improve and they'll pocket some cash which will create even more retirement income. His biggest worry.... where they're going to take their Airstream next.

His biggest mistake -- investing in 10 year treasury bonds instead of stocks. He made the switch to stocks with my help about 15 years ago. He'd have 3 times the net worth now - if he'd have bought stocks 40 years ago instead of bonds... but regardless of that "mistake" the point is that he's pretty well set.

CamaroMike 06-23-2014 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 557138)
You are doing quite well! Congrats!!



Remember that your "big long term gains" are going to come with long time lines... Money doubles about every 7 to 10 years. That's IF you stay invested and you reinvest the dividends. It's all about COMPOUNDING.... 2 becomes 4 - 4 becomes 8 - 8 becomes 16 - 16 becomes 32 - 32 becomes 64....

Note how the last "doubling" is also the biggest?!?!?! 64 becomes 128

That's how ordinary earners become wealthy retirees. It's not rocket science. It's common thinking - Saving first versus pissing away every dime... and avoiding debt on high interest rate stuff like 20% credit cards.

I was discussing retirement and spending with a retired buddy yesterday. This guy never made 50K a year in his life -- and he's a millionaire just in stocks - not counting his house. They're thinking about selling the current house (paid 49K - selling for 850K and has been paid off for at least 10 years) and moving to a lower cost - less stressful area. The house they're looking at is twice as nice and half the cost. So their lifestyle will improve and they'll pocket some cash which will create even more retirement income. His biggest worry.... where they're going to take their Airstream next.

His biggest mistake -- investing in 10 year treasury bonds instead of stocks. He made the switch to stocks with my help about 15 years ago. He'd have 3 times the net worth now - if he'd have bought stocks 40 years ago instead of bonds... but regardless of that "mistake" the point is that he's pretty well set.

Thanks! Thats very inspiring considering I have time on my side :P. Compunding is awesome when it works in your own favor! Im not a big spender either so that helps quite a bit.

My next question is when interest rates rise where do I put my new investment money? Do I keep going into stocks or diversify a little more with CD's or something since they should be paying with higher interest rates?

GregWeld 06-23-2014 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamaroMike (Post 557142)
Thanks! Thats very inspiring considering I have time on my side :P. Compunding is awesome when it works in your own favor! Im not a big spender either so that helps quite a bit.

My next question is when interest rates rise where do I put my new investment money? Do I keep going into stocks or diversify a little more with CD's or something since they should be paying with higher interest rates?



Don't try to play that game. You'll be in the wrong side of that trade every time. It's nearly impossible to "time" the market - which includes Bonds.

Historical data will show you that the stock market is the best money maker/compounder over every other investment. Bonds only have capital growth when rates are going DOWN and your interest rate is higher. The problem with that strategy is that you've lost the compounding affect of dividend reinvestment. If you go back thru the thread -- you'll read about dividend reinvesting and why it works. You get the dividend every three months... and every three months you buy shares at whatever price they happen to be that day. What happens with that is they buy MORE shares at lower prices and fewer when they price is high... the more shares you own the more dividend is paid buying ever more shares which pay more and more dividend.

A bond pays a flat rate of return and is only going to give you your capital back dollar for dollar - there is no reinvestment option. So while you hide behind the 'safety' of knowing you'll get back your initial investment.... you've lost out on the capital growth.

Many companies RAISE their dividend payouts. When that happens - the stock you bought for $10 that paid 4% -- is now getting 6%.... and the $10 is now trading for $13.

This is how Warren Buffet gets his entire initial investment in Coke (KO) back in dividend EVERY YEAR.

You have Home Depot (HD).... in 2004 they paid 8.5 cents per share per quarter and the stock price was $37.... today the share price is $80 and they're paying .47 cents per quarter. Compare that to a 10 year bond where you got 4% per year and got your money back after 10 years.... UGH.

Just keep putting money in the market - good market or bad market... reinvest the dividends.... stay with being diversified. Keep it real simple... and when you get scared... refer to a 10 year chart - ignore the little ups and downs (the squiggles in the line) and see that the chart is lower on your left and higher on your right despite all the little steps along the way.

CamaroMike 06-23-2014 09:47 AM

Wow, thats really simple!!! LOL! I always make things more complicated than they really are. Thanks again Greg!

rocketrod 06-23-2014 11:52 AM

Here is a simple example NOT a recommendation to buy.

I bought MO (now called Altria) in Jan 2008. Shortly afterwards they spun off PM (Phillip Morris) with a special dividend so for each share of MO I owned, I received a share of PM.

MO stock price has since appreciated 80%, and in addition I receive a dividend, which has increased from 5.27% to 8.72% on an annual basis.

PM stock price has since appreciated 90%, and in addition I receive a dividend, which has increased from 4.17% to 7.61% on an annual basis.

The investment, with dividends, has more than doubled in 6.5 years.

In hindsight, my only regret is not reinvesting my dividends from the beginning as my returns would have been even better. I have since started re-investing my dividends.

GregWeld 06-23-2014 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketrod (Post 557169)
Here is a simple example NOT a recommendation to buy.

I bought MO (now called Altria) in Jan 2008. Shortly afterwards they spun off PM (Phillip Morris) with a special dividend so for each share of MO I owned, I received a share of PM.

MO stock price has since appreciated 80%, and in addition I receive a dividend, which has increased from 5.27% to 8.72% on an annual basis.

PM stock price has since appreciated 90%, and in addition I receive a dividend, which has increased from 4.17% to 7.61% on an annual basis.

The investment, with dividends, has more than doubled in 6.5 years.

In hindsight, my only regret is not reinvesting my dividends from the beginning as my returns would have been even better. I have since started re-investing my dividends.




And it truly is just that Fn simple. It's when people try to get cute that it goes all wrong.

Simple ='s Great companies, a little diversity, reinvest the dividend, don't try to get all excited about the CURRENT value... You must trust Father Time. That all works when you stick to basics. When you start to loose your ass is when you try to game the IPO market -- or buy the "next hot stock" the traders on TV are talking about.... or you buy companies you know absolutely nothing about.

The other thing that works over time - is real estate that is RENTAL... not your own house (that is NOT an investment nor is it the piggy bank!). Having someone else make a mortgage payment for you --- so they're paying your loan down -- and the house or apartments go up in value at the same time over a LONG period of time. That's a winning strategy.

Getting into some cockamamy scheme your buddy just got into.... that's how you end up having nothing to show for your years of labor. You'll never find rich people that invest that way. EVER. You'll find SALESMAN on TV trying to get rich selling you their book about how they got rich (if they're rich... why are they on TV trying to sell you something?).

rocketrod 06-23-2014 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 557173)
.......
You'll find SALESMAN on TV trying to get rich selling you their book about how they got rich (if they're rich... why are they on TV trying to sell you something?).

Exactly....

WSSix 06-23-2014 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 557118)
Every QUARTER a company reports it's earnings... that's every three months guys! And every three months - they have to meet or beat the street. Sales - profits - unit sales - and on and on... have to be growing. IF not - the stock gets crushed. Never forget this key metric. The entire market is all about growth and growth gets rewarded - misses get clobbered.


So regardless of whether or not a company is selling cameras or cell phones or bread... Your investment needs to be based on the future - and what the market thinks they'll be able to do going forward. End of story.

This is what happened to Whole Foods. You can even pull up the chart and see the very day this occurred. I feel it's a result of the traders not liking what they saw versus a fundamental change in the business. I'm confident that they will rebound and learn to better compete against the new companies that are slowly expanding and becoming more of a competitor to them. I'm in this for the long haul so I'm not worried. Now, if they don't turn it around and continue to lose out, I'll reevaluate my position. For now though, I'll hold tight and see.

GregWeld 06-23-2014 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WSSix (Post 557222)
This is what happened to Whole Foods. You can even pull up the chart and see the very day this occurred. I feel it's a result of the traders not liking what they saw versus a fundamental change in the business. I'm confident that they will rebound and learn to better compete against the new companies that are slowly expanding and becoming more of a competitor to them. I'm in this for the long haul so I'm not worried. Now, if they don't turn it around and continue to lose out, I'll reevaluate my position. For now though, I'll hold tight and see.



Tough call there Trey! Whole Foods (WFM) is in a very competitive space and margins for grocery stores are tighter than a frogs ass (water tight!). I think what is happening with this phenomena is that the other markets are waking up to the concept of better quality and organic... and then the margins WFM was able to make are going to be squeezed. At the end of the day -- while consumers will win -- the market only wants to see profits and growth.

My wife shops there... but I won't because I feel like I'm paying way too much when I shell out $300 for 3 bags of food.... and I'm just not the fussy and don't care about "organic" or not. That's a personal issue for sure.... but I think you have to have a pretty healthy budget (is that an oxymoron?) to shop there. This was a stock I owned early on -- but sold when I realized that I wasn't shopping there because of the above and thought -- WTF!?! If I feel that way - maybe others do to!

I still LOVE their stores! Clean - great vegetables - nice displays... but I also have to understand "Wall Street" and what it is they reward, or not.

In this case -- WALL STREET can get it real wrong -- and a great buying opportunity can present itself when others fear and doubt cause selling --- and then the company (any company) comes roaring back and proves the street wrong! I hope for your sake this is the case at WFM. The honeymoon period ended and now they have to show they can maintain sales growth and margins.

We're not trying to discuss the individual merits of each and every investment - but I felt this is worth discussing for 102 because it involves EXPECTATIONS and What the Street wants -- vs -- what we'd like because we like a particular company.

Now -- this is also called a "reset" on The Street.... where expectations are reset. This is where P/E comes into play... a metric that I typically discount because it doesn't mean much a lot of times -------- and then just as you say that ---- it does mean a lot. People will pay it forward (raising the P/E) when they think the growth is there... and then the shares becoming a shrinking violet when this doesn't prove out and growth slows or stalls. THEN the P/E becomes real important because now it's too high!

Part of becoming a savvy investor is to have some patience in these cases. No need to go running in to catch a falling knife at the first price drop (trying to average down etc). Sometimes a guy can just sit back and watch and wait - keeping a sharper eye on the ball and then try to be ahead of the game either dumping the shares or buying more at better prices just ahead of the nice upside surprise. The problem with that kind of investing is it takes TIME - and it takes some kind of inside track to the industry as a whole - and the economy - etc. Unless you have plenty of extra money - then that's usually just not worth the extra effort. Sometimes it's just time to hold and hope -- or sell and move on to a better investment that doesn't have to deal with the issue. This is when it becomes tough to be an investor. The age old "what to do"?

WSSix 06-24-2014 07:24 PM

I read a few articles on what happened since it caught me by surprise honestly. What I was able to find out, and why I say the traders simply didn't like it, was that they, WFM, simply didn't meet their goals. They still made a good profit but not what they expected. So they've adjusted their outlook going forward. I think they'll adjust to the new competition and be fine but it may not be what the traders want. I'm not a trader so I'm ok with that. The reasons I'm invested in them are still there so I'm good for now anyway.

It's funny though. I'm like you in that I don't care about organic etc. I actually only shop at Whole Foods when I'm near one, which isn't often, and it's usually their bulk trail mixes and bakery items I'm after. That's about it really.

GregWeld 06-24-2014 08:04 PM

The key is -- you've learned patience -- not to just freak out and sell indiscriminately... and you did your work by reading up and trying to understand the "cause". THAT IS GOOD INVESTING!!


Now you keep your nose to the ground and a keen eye on the company to make sure they're DOING what they say they can do. If it's all good - then you stay in... But you ALWAYS QUESTION and pay attention. That's one of the reasons I don't like to see people in too many investments -- they can't even tell you what they own after awhile.

barrrf 06-25-2014 05:44 AM

May or may not affect WFM in the long term - but they've been ordered to pay $800k for over charging. This was local to CA - it may or may not spread.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/...tomers-n140311

SSLance 06-25-2014 06:29 AM

Well, today is the day...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2284...-set-to-launch

I didn't buy any before the open... should be interesting to watch though.

GregWeld 06-25-2014 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 557425)
Well, today is the day...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2284...-set-to-launch

I didn't buy any before the open... should be interesting to watch though.



They set the price at $24 which was at the high end of the original quoted.

What that means is high demand for the shares - so expect a nice pop at the open.

Here's where I'm at -- who cares where it opens - or where it ends the first day. I care about where it is a YEAR from now.... Cause it's easy to get all jacked up on this stuff only to have it fade into the sunset.... OR they are really kickin' it and it's a double or a triple. Ya just never know when they're IPO's.


GoPro - Be a Hero.... LOL

GregWeld 06-26-2014 05:51 AM

So this might be really interesting for Investing 102 to watch the whole GoPro IPO...

We watched the Facebook IPO - ultimately it was kind of a flop vs expectations of everyone that bought 2 shares was going to be an instant millionaire (LOL but close to the truth)

I was watching the interview with Nick Woodman, the CEO of GoPro, on CNBC this morning. He was asked a very simple question:

Going forward what's to stop competitors from jumping in and making a better camera - or getting into the business?

Frankly - he fumbled the response - which means he has no answer... He launched into a spiel about the "experience" and "sharing the human experience" blah blah blah - but he didn't have an answer for the actual question.

I think it's the best - most simple question..... if you're an INVESTOR... What does this (or any company) have that others don't - and what do they have going forward to continue making money and growing their business? It will be very interesting to see what GoPro has going forward. Right now they have the brand name! So did Walkman... So did BlackBerry.... I can think of many companies that OWNED their markets at some point. But then what happened to them?

Now - I think GoPro has an outstanding quality camera as far as video quality - I also (and I own a couple) think they suck to run... and I also have other video cameras that are just as good - and are easier to operate - but they're also more expensive and they're certainly not as "handy". So the big question is - can someone come along and make a better mousetrap? That remains to be seen. Apple iPod killed the Walkman... and when was the last time you bought anything with the SONY brand name?

I'm using this as a THOUGHT PROCESS -- not to discuss GoPro and whether or not they're going to have a huge IPO etc. But it will be interesting going forward I think and we can maybe revisit this 5 years from now.

SSLance 06-26-2014 07:14 AM

I've enjoyed reading comments from both sides of the GPRO camp, and there are two distinct different sides for sure. :peepwall:

I like the product and think they have the best thing out there...right now, but Greg is right in thinking that someone else may come along and make a better product eventually. To me this is about the difference between getting paid back for prior success vs continuing to create new success. None of us have any idea exactly how GPRO is going to be going forward...that is the gamble.

Now, there is also another factor in this...and this has been my bugaboo with the stock market as a whole for a long time now. Success as a company is one thing, success in keeping the company's share price high is completely different. If the naysayers of GPRO are eventually successful, Mr Market can tank the stock regardless of whether the company can stand on it's own two feet or not. This is where the CEO has to stop working in the company and start working "On" the company. He has to make the rounds both on the air and in private and keep on convincing the institutions that GPRO is a worthwhile investment. So far, I'm not sure he has been successful at this, maybe he can learn on the fly though.

toy71camaro 06-27-2014 05:54 AM

All good points about GPRO. Honestly, I was already in the thought process where Greg was when I heard about them going public... My first thought was "someone hasn't challenged them and made something better by now?"

I dont own one. I know a few people that do. Im a techie so I do hear a lot about them. But really, I never understood the hype. They're a small video camera with a whole bunch of different mounts. Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

CamaroMike 06-27-2014 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 557688)
Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

Hmmm maybe I will!

SSLance 06-27-2014 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 557688)
All good points about GPRO. Honestly, I was already in the thought process where Greg was when I heard about them going public... My first thought was "someone hasn't challenged them and made something better by now?"

I dont own one. I know a few people that do. Im a techie so I do hear a lot about them. But really, I never understood the hype. They're a small video camera with a whole bunch of different mounts. Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

I learned something yesterday I was unaware of...

Quote:

While making money off content may be a logical next step, thus far GoPro has been successful because it sells novel hardware. Much of what has made the company successful is the technology inside its cameras. GoPro makes light mountable cameras which feature high quality components from Sony (SNE), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Ambarella (AMBA). Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies like Intel (INTC) and Micron Technology (MU) have been on fire lately.

Ambarella has largely been flying under the financial media's radar, despite the company's meteoric rise. Ambarella makes the internal memory chip which allows GoPro to record HD video. Ambarella's chips can also be found in DropCamera products. DropCamera was acquired by Google's (GOOG) (GOOGL) Nest Labs a few days ago for $555 million. Shares of Ambarella have experienced heavy volatility since January, but the company has beaten every earnings consensus and the stock has climbed 169% since the start of 2013. In GoPro's S-1 filing the action camcorder company basically admitted that it had no alternative to using Ambarella's chips.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2287...-ought-to-know

I've seen videos from just about all of the other cameras currently in the market and none of them can hold a candle to GoPro's video quality (as of yet). Their small size, virtual indestructibility, and mounting versatility are also above and beyond the rest. That's why they have the market's interest and the aftermarket as well (other companies making accessories for GoPros).

It'll be fun to watch what they do from here, I'll be watching from the sidelines though.

Sieg 06-27-2014 07:09 AM

GoPro is interesting. I've owned every one of their models and had some very negative experiences due to performance shortcomings associated with product engineering. As for warranty support, they're quite evasive.

GoPro is as much marketing company as it is a video camera company. Their marketing is better than the camera even though the images the camera can capture are sometimes spectacular. That works with today's consumer.

I don't know actual numbers but I'd speculate that GoPro's market share is greater than Apple's iPhone. GoPro's market penetration is pretty impressive as is their client list.

Many think the iPhone is the ultimate, but to myself they have numerous performance shortcomings and are extremely over priced compared to their competition yet they sell like hotcakes and every up and coming consumer wants one. I imagine similar can be said for GoPro. Both companies have substantial global recognition.

It will be interesting to watch the stock performance.....so far it's a flatliner. Considering the market conditions since IPO flat isn't that bad........IMO. :EmoteClueless:

GregWeld 06-27-2014 07:40 AM

GoPro (GPRO) is running like the IPO's of 1998/99.... and it's interesting that the "market" is so hot on what (on the surface) is a one trick pony. I'm saying that because basically they just have ONE camera. At this point we don't know if it's just the latest "trader" darling - or if there's real intrinsic value that is yet to be discovered.

Here's the 102 version of this:


MANY IPO's come out and all the TV talking heads can do is discuss it -- and the stock flies -- for awhile.... then the next big IPO comes out - and the old one stalls out and the new one is all they can talk about.

Make CERTAIN that if you choose to invest in these IPO's - that it's play money. And make certain you're investing in the COMPANY and not just your personal love for a product. There's a difference... and in order to hold long term - you must understand the company and whether or not they can make money. In the longer run - the market will only reward "making money" because their love of the hype is pretty short lived.

Obviously there's many more people that want to own this company right now and it's painful to watch it run and not be in it. It's what people wanted out of Twitter and FaceBook.... it's fun when they go straight up.

What happens is that you missed this one -- so the next one you're NOT MISSING IT NO MATTER WHAT.... and that's the trap. The mind screams at you that you missed a double on "X" and by god you're not going to do that again. Be careful of that thinking

If a STOCK (not a company) is going to double and triple.... while you might not have gotten in at the bottom -- there's still plenty of time to watch and learn and get in and make 30% or 40% somewhere along the line. Sometimes that's far better than LOSING 30% when the air comes out.

SSLance 06-27-2014 07:45 AM

or 60%... or worse...

Good advice as always Greg...

GregWeld 06-27-2014 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 557715)
or 60%... or worse...

Good advice as always Greg...



Lot's of times I'm dead wrong Lance.... it's just a discussion -- and my view is nothing more than "think about this".... rather than a Do this or do that. It's just an old dog that's been at it awhile trying to have others avoid some of the stuff that can bite them in the ass. My point of view is neither right nor wrong -- it based on just trying to give guys stuff to think about.

I can think of at least half a zillion companies that I should have invested a million bucks in and I'd have my own Jet now.... and I missed them - or sold them or whatever before they went to the moon....

I can think of a least another half a zillion that never ever did what I thought they'd do. Whether that was go up or tank.

I was an early investor in Amazon - Starbucks - Costco - Dell - Cisco - Intel.... if I held the original investments in them I'd buy everyone on here a Rolls Royce.... Starbucks was bought on the IPO at the IPO price and flipped within a couple days for a whopping $500 gain..... I'd bought 1000 shares. At the time - I thought -- how many cups of coffee can these bozos sell.... Well -- Apparently they can sell quite a few!!!

Amazon was an internet book seller.... big whoop... when they couldn't make a profit - I bailed.

Costco was a CLUB only at the time -- and made 10 or 11% markup... How were they going to survive in a downturn? Obviously - quite well.

So when you're looking at a stock like GoPro --- who the hell knows. I don't and we won't know until it plays out.

What I do know is that there was plenty of time to get back into any one of the above names and there was plenty of room to run. A guy didn't have to buy it the first day to get it right.

That's all.

Vegas69 06-27-2014 06:08 PM

Greg, Thanks for the humility buddy. :captain:

GregWeld 06-27-2014 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas69 (Post 557775)
Greg, Thanks for the humility buddy. :captain:



Welcome! Just don't get used to it! LOL

GregWeld 06-29-2014 07:14 AM

Many people ask me "when should I sell"? Good question... and maybe a harder one to answer than "when should I buy"? So this mornings coffee and reading - while the sun comes up (it's truly glorious here in the valley).... I came across an article on Seeking Alpha. The author is attempting to set up a strategy for buying on the dips and for when to sell. In a nutshell he's selling 25% of his stake if the shares rise 50% and he's selling 50% of his stake if they double.

Here's my problem with a strategy to sell WINNERS..... They're usually winners for very good reason(s). They're doing things right and making money and investors want to own them. So my question would be - why would you sell? Just to take profits? You pay taxes on profits - either long term capital gains - or if you're not careful - short term capital gains. You pay ZERO taxes on gains that are paper.

Here's my other problem with selling winners.... now what do you do with the money? You want to keep invested... so if you're not selling because you need money to buy a house or apartment building or something like that... you're just selling because you have a profit. So now you have to come up with another winner. That's usually harder to do than you think.

We've been in a market where the saying is "a rising tide floats all boats". Pretty much everything is going up - mostly because the market has nowhere else to put their money and make anything on it. Remember a market goes up when there is more buyers than sellers. It's really just that f'n simple. Right now - nobody wants to put their money in a 1% bank account or a 2% bond. But here's the thing to remember. If you've gone up 40% -- and the market takes a downturn (who knows for what reason and it doesn't really matter)... and it goes down 15%... it's down 15% but you had a 40% increase - so it's really still up HUGE.

People love to sell when the market is "down"... but if you keep your head on straight - and really look at the numbers - you've made a pretty nice gain even when it's down. That's usually when I'm a buyer not a seller. And I almost never sell my winners.

Look at a chart -- stretch it to 10 years -- if you'd have bought 10 years ago - how many doubles would you have now in that name (whatever you choose to look at)? If you sold at the first double - where would you be? And that's my point for this morning. Sell for a good reason - not just because you enjoyed a superior gain.

glassman 06-29-2014 10:38 AM

This might be a dumb question, as sometimes i'm rather slow.

Where can i find or what sectors are there? in other words, from this list , what am i missing?

Manufacturing
Technology
Bio tech
Transportation
Food (and entertainment?)
Communications
Global stocks?
Energy (types? differences between say Chevron and KMP)
Property stocks (REITS?)

Im trying to build a well diversified dividend portfolio if you will...So as i research and grow. I am slow to the game in building all this.

Im averaging in every month...and currently only have Food and Energy stocks so far (besides my Roths, 401k and biz and property).

Were trying to build a pension for the company (us and our few employees) and what a pain in the a$$) so many different opinions and bs, everybody keeps pointing me in different directions....Any advice out there while doing this?

GregWeld 06-29-2014 06:00 PM

Mike,

You've asked a really loaded question with a whole bunch of answers.

There's MANY MANY ways to "diversify" your investments without trying to own each category in the S&P...

#1 -- It's not about just owning something in every category. There's sub categories... such as large cap or small cap - or even micro cap... within each category.

#2 -- I firmly believe too much diversification only leads to poor performance

#3 -- To be really diversified only means that you don't have all your eggs in one basket. That could also be defined as everything in stocks!

#4 -- Diversification depends on how much money you have. A guy with 10 grand can be somewhat diversified by just owning 5 different investments. He could own a bank - oil - drugs - retailer - and a food stock. For 10K I'd call that about as diversified as he/she should get.

#5 -- That wouldn't be nearly enough diversification for a guy with 100K or 1MM


#6 -- Just pay attention to QUALITY over trying to spread out "just because".

+++++++++++++++++++++++


RE: Pension


Only discuss this with a qualified Pension pro. There's so much to know and understand about pensions. And remember -- once you're involving other people - such as your employees... now you're taking on a fiduciary responsibility and you put yourself / company at risk if you don't do things right.

Personally -- in today's litigious environment - I'd never involve myself taking on that responsibility unless I had a really large company. I used to have to deal with this when I owned a company in NYC -- and also as a Board Director
at Seattle Yacht Club... it's a nightmare. No thanks!

glassman 06-29-2014 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 557989)
Mike,

You've asked a really loaded question with a whole bunch of answers.

There's MANY MANY ways to "diversify" your investments without trying to own each category in the S&P...

#1 -- It's not about just owning something in every category. There's sub categories... such as large cap or small cap - or even micro cap... within each category.

#2 -- I firmly believe too much diversification only leads to poor performance

#3 -- To be really diversified only means that you don't have all your eggs in one basket. That could also be defined as everything in stocks!

#4 -- Diversification depends on how much money you have. A guy with 10 grand can be somewhat diversified by just owning 5 different investments. He could own a bank - oil - drugs - retailer - and a food stock. For 10K I'd call that about as diversified as he/she should get.

#5 -- That wouldn't be nearly enough diversification for a guy with 100K or 1MM


#6 -- Just pay attention to QUALITY or trying to spread out "just because".

+++++++++++++++++++++++


RE: Pension


Only discuss this with a qualified Pension pro. There's so much to know and understand about pensions. And remember -- once you're involving other people - such as your employees... now you're taking on a fiduciary responsibility and you put yourself / company at risk if you don't do things right.

Personally -- in today's litigious environment - I'd never involve myself taking on that responsibility unless I had a really large company. I used to have to deal with this when I owned a company in NYC -- and also as a Board Director
at Seattle Yacht Club... it's a nightmare. No thanks!

THanx Greg, its very important to me as an employer to take care of the people and spread around the wealth a little, and yes wat a clusterfuc. And thats what my accountant keeps saying "fiduciary responsibility/liability", so yeah, things need to be done right. We used a good pension company, have a good accountant, and attorney. So I'll just keep doing my homework and sell as much glass and aluminum and service as I can.....and keep digging away.....:thumbsup:

Anyways, thanx for your input. I really respect your opinion, even if you are just full of sh$t lol....

JKnight 06-30-2014 09:43 AM

Mike,

Are you guys going down the path of a pension plan, as in defined benefit, or something like a profit sharing plan (defined contribution)? The defined contribution plan might be quite a bit easier from an administration standpoint, but everything Greg said above would still apply. Just clarifying terms as it might be important to make the distinction in your conversations with the pros.

GregWeld 06-30-2014 11:27 AM

To me -- the issue with pension plans etc - is that once started - they're no longer optional. So they're fine as long as you're making money hand over fist - but if something happens to change that -- now you're stuck funding the SOB.... and or it can become a liability if you wanted to sell the business at some point.

Just make sure you really understand what you're getting into as business -- 'cause it's like getting married -- it's great as long as things are fine -- but being married sucks when it's not so fine - and worse if you want to get a divorce!

GregWeld 06-30-2014 11:35 AM

Mike ---


Let's touch on that statement "fiduciary responsibility" --- particularly if you're also going to benefit from this pension plan.


What that statement really boils down to is SAFE - BORING - Low returns due to low risk.


You might be better off with some kind of plan -- unofficial by the way -- of paying bonuses -- or doing some kind of savings matching... That way you escape all the paperwork and accounting expenses as well as the OBLIGATION... I hate that word by the way.... Because an OBLIGATION is no big deal when it's easy -- it's a huge word when it's not so easy.

glassman 06-30-2014 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 558071)
Mike ---


Let's touch on that statement "fiduciary responsibility" --- particularly if you're also going to benefit from this pension plan.


What that statement really boils down to is SAFE - BORING - Low returns due to low risk.


You might be better off with some kind of plan -- unofficial by the way -- of paying bonuses -- or doing some kind of savings matching... That way you escape all the paperwork and accounting expenses as well as the OBLIGATION... I hate that word by the way.... Because an OBLIGATION is no big deal when it's easy -- it's a huge word when it's not so easy.

Yeah, spot on with the word "Obligation"/marriage. I hadn't thought about that, i was figuring if we get "slow", the contributions "slow" down, which i'm ok with, as long as were profitable. I have a hard time putting into a "retirement" account if were bleeding money (which as most of you know you dont make money EVERY day in biz, hopefully just most).

glassman 06-30-2014 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKnight (Post 558061)
Mike,

Are you guys going down the path of a pension plan, as in defined benefit, or something like a profit sharing plan (defined contribution)? The defined contribution plan might be quite a bit easier from an administration standpoint, but everything Greg said above would still apply. Just clarifying terms as it might be important to make the distinction in your conversations with the pros.

Jeff, i'm not sure which path we're going down. I knew at some point, but the process of starting this thing up is going on 22 months. Were only starting with like 40k and apparently thats not enough for somebody to make a decent commission on, not sure.

So as we "begin" this, (again) i will clear things up in terms of what i can understand. Like my accountant, he speaks to me in "accountantease" and i speak English. But when i "get it" i really "get it", just takes a while.

He explained to us three different plans, and i forget which one we chose. Pam will know, as her and I are in this (well that part) together and fortuneately for me i married a smart cookie...

GregWeld 07-01-2014 06:59 AM

Once again I'll try to use a company as an EXAMPLE.... not actually discussing whether or not the actual company is good bad or indifferent...

TWITTER (TWTR) was a highly anticipated IPO... frankly since the IPO it's not been a good buy. If you were lucky to get some at the actual IPO price (the issuance price) you'd be down around 9%.

Regardless of the above ---- I always talk about FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES... and I found this info to be of the TYPE of fundamental change that as an investor - you should take notice of. IT will affect your money! Not saying it is good news or bad news - as sometimes changes at the top are good but the REASONS behind the change are really what matters.


The changes come three weeks after Ali Rowghani resigned as Twitter’s chief operating officer after a power struggle over responsibilities, according to people familiar with the matter. The social-media company has experienced decelerating user growth and has struggled to boost people’s engagement with the service. Chief Executive Officer Dick Costolo is reshaping management as he seeks to increase members.


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