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So many of the companies we own nowadays are already "international". So I don't go looking for a pure international play. 20 years ago you needed to own some foreign company stocks -- but the big best of breed guys are almost all doing business in other countries. Frankly I can't think of many countries where I'd want to own their stocks. Europe is a welfare entity... Spain? Japan hasn't had a good economy for 20 years.... If you want China - buy McDonalds - Coke - Apple... and I don't want to own anything I can't pronounce. Germany is just now slipping into a possible recession... The other way I think is about stuff like KMI/KMP/KMR.... they own the Pipes...Everyone needs to get their stuff from point A to point B... so I don't try to pick the one guy that's going to win that battle -- when they ALL have use KMP pipes... Ditto oil --- I'd prefer to own the infrastructure plays (the pipes/storage). Versus the guys that have to drill - risk capital to find more - or have to play the pricing game. THEY ALL have to use the pipes so I invest in pipes. :>) Again -- this is just something more to think about rather than BUY THIS or DON'T BUY that.... which isn't the way I like to do this thread. |
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I have tankers ---- KMI owns Oil Tankers (under the KMP umbrella which is being converted to KMI shares).... and I own Dry Goods ships via Navios Marine Partners LP (NMM). They own 33 dry goods ships. I like to mix the high dividend payers in with the steady eddies and frankly my holdings allow me to do this and still sleep at night. However - I keep the percentage invested in the high div payers to a far lower amount. For instance I own just shy of half a million dollars each worth of NMM (25,000 shares) and NLY (40,000 shares).... versus 1.5 to 2MM in my more "normal" names like an AT&T or a MO or BPT etc. Although I recently halved my holdings in BPT it's still a large holding. I usually refrain from mentioning too many of my holdings because I don't want people to think - well WELD has that so I should too! That would be the completely 100% opposite of what I would like to see from this thread. Don't own what I own and why I own it.... own what YOU want to own and what YOU understand. I mention when I don't own something because I don't understand it. There is NOTHING wrong with admitting you don't understand something therefore you avoid investing in "it". That's as it should be! |
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I did read that and it very well could play out. Personally, I like the decision.
Thanks for the input Greg. |
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Michael.... the whole thread is about a WAY TO THINK -- not about who has what. I throw in my real life stuff because it's the only way to separate what "I" do to use as an example - versus the way I want people to look at their own accounts. I'm not brilliant and I'm not a brilliant writer. I can use real life stuff - keeping it honest and real - and let people take the information and use it for how it fits for them. Investing - and writing about it on here (the only place I do) - is to help my friends. The problems with investing in general is that nobody wants to talk about it. You ever remember your Dad sitting you down and saying -- hey Son! I make 5,000 a month and I'm saving 500 a month for my retirement and 350 a month for your college... and here's where it is and how my returns are going. The reason I mention real numbers in here - is one - for full disclosure - and two - because I want to show real actual relativity. There are people on this forum that have to save for a set of tires - and there's guys on here with 30 collector cars... and everything in-between. Earnings power and savings and the price of a guys house or his car - is really totally not relevant here - because many of us have been on here for years. We all know each other. Many of us are friends well beyond this forum etc. What you will find out here is that we're all here for each other. Whether that's borrowing a tool or meeting for coffee - or lending ideas - expertise - or just giving each other crap. If I can help my friends with their retirement... then that's what I'm going to do. It's been very rewarding for me personally to see and hear the stories of success. Nobody is a minnow.... because if you're in here reading and discussing - then you're a somebody in my book. The people that are in this thread give a **** about their future and the future of their family... and they're doing the very best they can. You don't have to own a AA/FC to go and participate in the drag races... If you're there - then you're a drag racer and the people around you will welcome you. Ditto here. Quote:
For investing 102 -- I'll toss this in. Your point is a good one -- EXCEPT -- this move was well telegraphed. The "market" - which is really controlled by the large institutional players.. would have already "priced this in". I think cigs are a very low margin business and the actual cost of handling them - accounting for all the taxes - keeping them "safe" in the retail space as well as at the warehouse... has costs not associated with normal merchandise. My guess is - if they were killing it (is that a pun?) with cigs - they'd have a far different view. Money - in business - trumps just about everything. And the CFO etc and the BOD (Board of Directors) I'm sure has looked at the effect to the bottom line for months before the decision was made. Having said all of that.... it remains to be seen if they loose customers to WalMart or some other competitor. A guy might stop for smokes and buy a lighter -- or shampoo - or his cough medicine (LOL). So your statement is very valid in that the real affect is yet to be known. As such - I agree with you - I'd avoid it for at least 2 full quarters. Why stand on the tracks just to see if a train is really going to come or not.... when you can stand to the side and have no worries? |
Now -- Since I'm on a roll this morning...
Let's not forget what the STOCK MARKET really is. It's a MARKET. PERIOD. At the end of the day -- for a stock to rise - more people must want to own it than want to sell it. End of story. There are "popular stocks" -- no different than the popular girl in high school... everyone wanted to (use your imagination)... She had no problems finding a date. Stocks are the same way. The ones everyone wants to own are the easy ones. In the end however -- it's about people and people are fickle.... and we're lemmings... if housing is hot - we all want to be in housing. If gold is hot we all want gold. When these things go "cold" (like when the hot chick shows up with a cold sore)... then "nobody" wants them and the price drops. Some times - if you're lucky - the fact that you hit on the cold sore chick - and the sore goes away - she loves you for life and you're rewarded. Some times that cold sore is just the beginning of a far "lower" (get it) problem that isn't readily visible. Let's call this -- trying to catch a falling knife. If you're lucky you get the handle... if not - you get sliced and diced. I prefer not to play that game. It's gut wrenching - it's gambling - it works and you're a hero - it doesn't work and you're a zero. Alibaba is on everyones target.... This is not only THE HOT CHICK - This is the hot chick that puts out! And it seems that people want in and don't want to get out. i.e, people want to hold it. That means the price SHOULD go up. I'm hearing on CNBC that most of the shares offered are going to institutional investors rather than retail customers ala (get it?) FaceBook (FB). People EXPECTED FB to double or triple on the first day and their plans were to get in and get out. A one night stand. The difference that I'm sensing is that people want to marry Alibaba for a far longer term and that can only be good for the shares. ME? I'll wait and see.... but you young guys... this may be something that goes viral and It wouldn't hurt you to put $500 or $1000 into play. IF you do that -- be prepared for "whatever". Understand your expectations and your reactions if your expectations aren't met. |
I would also suggest that you look at some real estate companies..... not only do they spin off decent dividends - it adds to your diversity. I personally own NNN - but have also owned O... and I'm not recommending either of them -- I'm just saying I think you need more diversity and some better dividends.
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Greg please send me a PM with your Paypal address, amazon wishlist or something so I can send a present to you for all your help here. Be it with beer, ONE racing glove, something! I have been reading here since I posted back then about MNKD. I have learned a lot.
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What?!?!?! You finally learn about chicks with cold sores?? LOL |
LMAO. Some great discussions here the past couple days. I love it. I could read, talk, learn, BS about this stuff ALL day. hahaha.
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Question from us "Young guys" (I still consider myself young. LOL)
If we were to "gamble" on something like Alibaba, or GoPro, etc. Which account would be best to do this in? A Personal Brokerage account or within a ROTH IRA? I'm guessing a PB account. If it fizzles out it could be counted as a loss. But then again, if it goes to the moon, it wont be taxed in the ROTH, but then its also tied up for another 30 years... heh. I'm not sure that even a question we can really answer.. But maybe just discuss and we'll have to weigh our own options individually. |
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Thanks Greg, Don |
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wow Greg, I learned more from this post then my own broker tells me. My issue is I don't trust the brokers. I always feel they have a hidden agenda. Thanks for sharing :thumbsup: :thumbsup: |
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Per Greg's suggestion to look for higher yields, I have been looking at healthcare specific REITs such as Healthcare REIT (HCN), Ventas (VTR) as an alternative to the drug dealers and manufacturers. The baby boomers you mention will have to go someplace as they age and assisted living, nursing homes, SNIF's, and senior care facilities will be a key component of elderly care over the next 20 years. Medical offices are popping up all over the place. ER clinics, CareNows and minute clinics are popping up in every neighborhood their is even the slightest level of population density. Look at HCN and VTR's chart. 10 yr gains of 80% and 120% growth, plus at or around 5% dividend yield. It's not the growth scale of CVS, and the buy in is close to peak, even tho they are somewhat depressed the past year, but one thing is for sure...we are not getting any younger. The demands on healthcare will continue to be a need as long as humans are on this planet. And, they are looking to expand across the ponds. India and China are target rich environments for these companies. 3 to 5 times the population in the US with massive demand for infrastructure. Not saying its the right strategy, but an alternative to consider. CVS is more of a steady eddie performer with lower yield, and the REITs diversify without having to physically buy a building. Greg and Todd, thanks for the guidance to look for closer to 5% yields and think about my "comfort zone" a little differently. It was your nudge Greg, that made me research my strategy a bit differently the past couple days versus going in with all "sleep well at night" stocks I proposed on my list. Now tell me if I'm crazy or if this type of diversification is more aligned to your guidance from previous responses! |
Nobody can have the right answer for this question because it all depends.
As you pointed out - if it goes to the moon and makes you a millionaire -- then inside the ROTH would be the best place! But some people don't have ROTH IRA's --- and some don't have self directed 401's etc. FORGET ABOUT TAXES... they don't count. Making money counts. If you make some - you pay taxes - be happy about that. Dead serious here. I don't do ANYTHING because it might have a possible taxable event. I do things to just make as much money as humanly possible. They get a small percentage -- I keep the rest! Quote:
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Dumbass! Now you only have 450 more pages to read!! You'll then fire your sorry ass broker... and make yourself some money without him/her.
Love ya buddy! See ya at SEMA???? Quote:
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Healthcare/Med Devices is what I know. Thinking back to your other posts, look at what you eat, where you shop, what you buy, and what you consume. I can't remember the last time I went to Sears so I don't own it. I drink Coke products which is why we like KO vs Pepsi and own it. You have made me realize I need to take the blinders off and look beyond what I work on and expand the horizon to research and identify alternative ways to generate wealth, demonstrated by T, low growth, well run and good payer. MCO should have been MCD. Good ASSumption. Like Sears, I cannot recall the last time I stepped foot in a McD's. No wonder I sort of missed on that one, especially when we eat at Chipotle with more frequency than I care to admit. Just reinforces your point to reflect on your consumption behaviors. This is a really good learning point if one is just starting out. What's your opinion of chasing 2-3 high growth stocks, not a fad stock, but one that has a shorter growth chart, is a little less mature like GPRO than the likes of T or COP as a part of a start up portfolio? Reason I ask, would a little higher risk tolerance on growth make sense to balance the "sleep well at night" buys? I believe I know the answer but am not 100% sure so that is the reason for the question. |
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Looks like BABA is going to be set at $68 I believe. Lets do some gambling without going to vegas! lol
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Single entities always assume more risk. Then you're really investing with the management -- which is fine if you know them and their history of bringing successful developments to market. I've been investing with a guy in apartment buildings for 20+ years and every one of them has a been a total score. My biggest fear is if he dies... Then what? I really have never asked him.. and maybe I should. Smaller money --- more LIQUID --- as in way way way more liquid is a publicly traded REIT such as the ones I mentioned earlier "O" and "NNN" as well as many others. You can sell with a click of the mouse. Not so in LLC's where you're a minor partner and really have ZERO control as an investor. If you have tons of money -- don't have any need for it (as in see it go to zero) and have no immediate (5 to 10 years) need for the cash for "other stuff" -- then LLC's have some nice tax benefits such as depreciation etc that work pretty well... and if there's cash flow (interest)... and the upside of a sale and return of principal down the road - they can be real corkers! I was in a 344 unit class A apartment complex in Tucson that was dead money for 4 years - until it was sold to convert to condos - and returned 117%. I'll take a double in 4 years every day if I could get it. But for 4 years before then I was kicking myself for having ever looked at the deal. So the criteria for these two commercial real estate investments is: Do you want liquidity and relative safety with a dividend but no tax benefit or Do you tie up your money (Illiquid) and increase risk (single entity) with a tax benefit... and a possibility much larger total return out to an unknown date. I own both types... but I have no liquidity issues either... 20 years ago I knew I was gambling (I was 40 and not 60+) - and it worked out well. I've since invested with the same guy in several apartment complexes but I would NOT invest like this with anyone else if he should quit business or whatever. In my mind - I'm not investing in an apartment... I'm investing in him with and I get his considerable skills. Good question by the way. |
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ALABAMA FOR ALIBABA!! You go girl!! LOL |
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I went to make a "gamble" purchase (had a couple items in mind. Baba was one)... :confused59:
But, I just couldn't pull the trigger.:shakehead: Knowing full well on how many other choices I have that wouldn't be a "gamble" and still go up. lol. Edit... i went ahead and gambled. Its a very small % of my retirement. and part of it came from some employees that werent performing anyway. :) |
Set my trigger at $89 at 7 am and went to work. I guess my money is safe for a few days.
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If nothing else, at least its a little excitement in the midst of all the steady eddies just working away like clockwork. :)
More excitement than throwing it all down on red! lol |
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I've warned here many times - that when interest rates rise - stocks die. Of course this is over simplification... but it's very very interrelated and must be given some measure of attention. However... if you went in and out of stocks over every interest rate move - you'd just be losing time and again so that's really a dumb strategy. The better strategy is that NEW MONEY would go into a higher yielding "whatever". Let's say tax free bond rates hit 6%... then that's where you'd put some new money to work. The problem with bonds is that they don't come with the compounded growth that stocks do over time... and generally -- if it's s dividend paying stock - the price action (taking the share price lower) is supported by the dividend -- so when you buy new shares at lower prices - your yield (dividend percentage) has risen... so you get a new blended rate of yield. This is when things can get complicated --- but that's also usually easily explained = normally foreseen - and discussed when these thing occur. |
I wish I didn't have to start a post with these kinds of statements - but here it goes again. I'm only using this stock as an EXAMPLE. I'm not saying anyone should buy / sell / or hold it. It's just a current example for Investing 102.
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in a company - or bad news about a company - affects it's SHARE PRICE. You must pay attention to this kind of stuff -- and if possible - try to be "EARLY" in your decision making process. You don't want to be the last guy stampeding to the door when someone yells FIRE... McDonalds (MCD) HAS BEEN a fantastic money maker for investors for many years. It's had steady growth - it pays a nice dividend - it's a name that everyone loved and trusted. In other words - it was a stellar investment you could count on. History can help GUIDE us in making investing decisions. What else do we have to go on? Your gut feelings - your basic knowledge - and a little research for historical facts and figures... there really isn't anything else. We certainly don't have crystal balls.... or do we?? Hmmmmmmmm...... You've read me preaching about buying companies you understand - the ones that perhaps make products you use... or where you buy gas - or lumber - or tires... whatever. Remember - this is BASIC INVESTING.... so if you're a beginner with "X" amount of dollars to invest. Might as well start out with a name or couple of names you know. McDonalds fits this bill perfectly. That's a good way to begin - or even add to your portfolio. BUT this is only the beginning - it does not let you off the hook for being DILIGENT about your money. IF you're not diligent about your investments... who do you think is going to be? Me? Hell no! Not my job to write daily about what I think <even though I do sometimes>. It's YOUR JOB to pay attention. So with that in mind here's why I write today. A few months back - maybe even a year or so ago -- I wrote that I was considering selling my McDonalds stake. I don't eat there any more - and when I did / do - it was very disappointing. The food was cold - or not prepared well... the stores seemed to be dirtier than they used to be... Many times I could not understand the employee taking my order (I F'n HATE THAT - this is AMERICA where we speak ENGLISH).... I cut them some slack because historically this was a good company and we had "history" together and it was a base holding of mine. However - I tend to run around the country a bit... and it didn't seem to matter where I was - the stores had the very same slow service - dirty floors or tables - poor food quality. THIS IS A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE... and I needed to listen to what my guts were telling me. CUT AND RUN. I wrote here that I was selling my stake. I'd had enough --- and more importantly maybe I WAS LOOKING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL. My brain seems to function just fine (relatively)... and if I'm not a happy customer - perhaps other customers are feeling the same way. Eventually this will affect the sales - which affects the share price!! DOH!! Not rocket science. Sure enough -- we begin to get reports of same store sales declines... This info only serves to reinforce my crystal ball prediction. That doesn't make me smart - that just tells me what I thought might happen - is happening. If you always go to Lowe's (LOW) and you suddenly think - WTF this store has turned to crap I can't find what I want - and you get in your car and drive to Home Depot (HD) and you're suddenly happy.... and you own LOW... maybe you better switch it up. Maybe it's your cellphone provider... Verizon (VZ) vs AT&T (T). There's a zillion examples I could drag out here.... Are you an Apple (AAPL) fanboi? Suddenly you find yourself buying a Microsoft (MSFT) laptop instead and loving it. Better pay attention to that if you own APPL shares. So today I wake up to find this article.... which prompted this post. Now news organizations are writing about "my" feelings. That can't be good. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...part/15908697/ THE ONLY POINT HERE IS THAT YOU SHOULD BE A PRETTY DECENT JUDGE FOR WHAT'S GOING ON.... and this works particularly well if you're buying companies you know and understand and use. If you used to shop on eBay daily and you find you haven't shopped their in months -- stop and listen to that!! It's telling you something you should be aware of - particularly if you own the shares!! USE THIS TO YOUR ADVANTAGE don't toss this valuable info aside. Use your guts and your brains to help you! We're not always right - but sometimes we can sorta be right - and sometimes we're dead wrong - but it's the only thing we have going for us. In investing - we only need to be right a little more than half the time. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Okay then -- that brings up another opportunity. Buying the turnaround. This really isn't INVESTING 102... but I'm adding the info anyway. Let's say you were so brilliant that you sold your McDonalds (MCD) - I have to chuckle at myself here... and you've been out for awhile. Now let's begin to continue to pay attention to the share prices and the news. There may be a buying opportunity when they get low enough and the management starts to right the ship!! Then you'd want to be "early" and try to dribble back in to the shares as they begin to find their footing again. Nobody knows when a company is going to teeter --- or if they can save it --- how long that takes -- what that looks like.... but it's my job to manage my money (employees) and I've got to be constantly on the lookout for opportunity. Sometimes I get it wrong.... and that's why I don't go whole hog into anything. I SCALE IN or even scale out if you're unsure. I've usually lost the most money when I was 100% positive I was so right I couldn't possibly be wrong.... <Buzzer> |
So true, so true. i'm optimistacally long on MCD, (its "sentimental" to my wife, her first job and a lot of quality relationships came out of it). But its a very small part of my/our portfolio.
#5 of that ariticle was spot on (well they all were) when "whats next" for the company? what to do? Little pressure for the CEO Its easy for us to understand MCD, but the more complex stocks like tech and biotech i'm effin lost. Can't even go with a gut on those. But like you (Greg) said "BE DILIGENT" and watch, some things can happen like a theif in the night. on a side note, speakin of English, why do they print the DMV booklets (here in commufornia) in eight languages but the roadsigns in one? :topic: |
I found this to be interesting and worth reading and making note of what's being said.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfi...mas-alibubble/ I made a killing during the dot.com era.... I'd buy half a million of Microsoft/Dell/Intel/Cisco/Juniper.... in the morning - before noon I was playing golf after flipping them out up .50 or a buck a share... The only thing that bailed me out was paying cash for a house built in 1923 and gutting it and doing a year long remodel... using the cash that I was flipping over and over. So I was busy doing the remodel and quit trading during the end of that period. Otherwise - my guess is I'd have lost half or more in a manor of weeks. It all seemed so easy! Every day - every thing went up... but people weren't buying companies - they were just buying hype... and there were more buyers than sellers. Ultimately the above names became real companies and have made money -- but I can give you a list of fly by night dot.coms that were nothing - made nothing - and only counted "eyeballs". POOF! They're gone. I don't think Alibaba is a nothing.... and I'm not choosing a side here - don't own it - probably won't for no other reason than I prefer income over a "maybe" --- in the meantime - a maybe can make millions --- we'll see how it all plays out. |
We got lucky like that back then as well Greg. We had a defined benefit pension plan through our company (2 officers, 3 employees total at the time) and were very aggressive with the contributions and investments during the boom. We made so much money inside the plan that our actuary told us that any more money made in the plan would all go to Uncle Sam, so we sold everything and went into bonds, right before the bottom fell out.
Sometimes it IS better to be lucky than good. |
My favorite saying! "Better lucky, than smart!"
Lots of people are extremely smart and never lucky... and some really smart folks are just unlucky. We all should do our best to put ourselves in a position to GET LUCKY. If you don't ever try - then you're doomed to fail. A buddy of mine is ultra conservative -- always in bonds for 35 years... an ardent, serious saver. While he's done very conservatively well for himself... He COULD HAVE put that bond money into dividend paying stocks - even half of what he saved - and he'd be living the life. He's smart and diligent but he's never been smart enough to do the work required to see that his investments weren't always in his best interest. A tax free return of 3 and 4% but zero growth in his capital always cost him total return. He WOULD HAVE BEEN REALLY LUCKY had he put himself into the Coke's and McDonalds and Mercks of the world years ago... He's always telling me how lucky I am... and I ask him - did I put myself in a position to get lucky? Is it really luck at all? Must be 'cause I'm not real smart. |
When I began reading this Investing 102 thread, I started doing research on dividends to better understand the investment tool.
Here is a link that explains the basics of dividend stocks. I wanted to share. It may be helpful to someone else looking to get started. http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/072304.asp All the talk about "luck" reminded me of a saying, "99% of luck is preparation." |
Okay -- So here we go.... Alibaba (BABA) is down today rather than continuing to go up...
My point here is not to discuss any particular stock - but to use 'em for examples. So if you were a buyer (at any price) of BABA.... and this morning it's headed south... how are your guts when you look at your account? Do you REALLY know anything about the company? Do you really understand the price/value... or is this a pure speculative buy based on nothing more than the hype? The answers are easy when it's going up... they're not so easily answered when you're losing value/money. YES -- this is only one day.... and that's not my point. My point is -- are you truly ready mentally and financially to "gamble".... That's something nobody can answer until they're doing it. Some love it - most people I know don't. Pay attention to your response to yourself... and if nothing else - learn from it. |
Door #1 - Alibaba
Door #2 - Alibooboo Door #3 - Aliboomboom :popcorn2: |
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Well that's a prediction I wouldn't presume to know. And the reason I say that is because if you were an IPO buyer of Microsoft (MSFT) in 1986 -- the chart will show you an UNDERWATER stock for a couple years!! So the reason for my post was more about teaching/questioning as an investor --- ARE YOU WILLING TO SUFFER?? How much?? How LONG? Can you really stand the heat?? You may be rewarded or you may not. Nobody knows. If a person is willing to buy these types of "investments" -- they NEED to know themselves and whether or not they can handle the stress that comes with them. That was my point. Nothing more - nothing less. |
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