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gearheads78 01-07-2015 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dhutton (Post 588614)
I tell folks that I get my investing advice on a car forum and they think I am crazy. Crazy like a fox as they say.... :cheers:

Thanks Greg,
Don

LOL I get crazy looks when I tell people too

chichirone 01-07-2015 10:59 PM

It is a fun conversation with others when we start talking lat-g investing 102 thread. Their faces always crack me up when the topic of dividend reinvesting comes up and the valuable information shared here. Most commonly we receive blank stares and deer in headlights looks.

Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

Thanks to all for the sharing and willingness to educate! It's opened up another world to generating income, wealth, and the ability to pass it forward to family and friends.

GregWeld 01-08-2015 08:51 AM

I appreciate all the positive feedback! I really do! I pour my personal info out here in an effort to stir people to action. I fully understand that investing - in anything - comes with a certain amount of gut wrenching. Even buying something as simple as a rental house... we always second guess ourselves. It's a big deal. I get it.

I wasn't really asking for posts about feelings -- it was really a rhetorical question. But I'm glad to hear these reports of success! I like the interaction because that gets me thinking about what "newbs" need to know - or think about. Just like the recent MLP question.

So RE: Investing 102

Here's the takeaway I want you guys to get from the action in the market like this week.

These big "drops" don't always come with big rebounds. Put a couple of the names you hold in your charting - via Google Finance or Yahoo Finance - and take a look at the TEN YEAR chart. Notice the LONG VALLEY beginning after the peak mid to late 2007.... there's about a 3 year "DIP" there. You have to be mentally ready for that kind of long dip. The last couple years you've been QUICKLY rewarded buying on dip (on sale!) events. But there will be a time when you buy the dip - and then the market drips lower - you buy some more - and the market goes lower and so on.

So now stretch your chart out from 10 year to "ALL".... Look at how many "valleys" are in that chart!! Many of them look violent - some are just flat spots - some are longer.... BUT THE LINE WILL BE LOWER ON THE LEFT SIDE AND HIGHER ON THE RIGHT SIDE. I'm yelling that (really just emphasis) in order to fortify your resolve to STAY INVESTED. You have to trust that you will be rewarded for holding. When the market turns around - you'll look brilliant! And you'll be richer than the asswipe that tried to time the market sold low and buys high.

Timing the market will have you OUT of the market when it's on sale - and all those quarterly dividends WON'T be buying shares that have gone on sale (and come with a higher yield!!).... adding to your pile at lower prices. Then the market will turn up and you'll be out -- and then you'll get back in at higher prices and own fewer shares.

Getting rich takes time... resolve... intestinal fortitude. The guys that are laughing all the way to the bank right now are the ones that bought houses when you couldn't give one away. Ditto the INVESTORS in the market. They HELD and bought - they didn't sell and hide... They know TIME and history is on their side.

GregWeld 01-08-2015 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainofiron (Post 588641)
oil stuff and ATT has me feeling uneasy, but the others arent too bad. I guess that means I picked well

Unfortunately I lost my job right before Christmas, so no more investing for the time being.

I did get my 401k rolled over and bought some Conoco to bring down my cost basis on that one, actually its the first time I have used the limit function. I put it like 1.50 less than it was trading in the morning and amazingly (or not) it filled later in the day.




So awesome! Here's the deal about using limit orders... over the long run - given the amount of shares to be bought or sold the actual total amount doesn't really make much of a difference. Where the difference comes into play is that you FEEL good about it. And that's very very important for people. Never underestimate the power of feeling "successful" regardless of the size or dollars. Even scoring $20 on a bet can be a far more powerful feeling than being on the losing side of that $20.

Beware of the pitfalls though of using limit orders when they DON'T get filled - and then RISE and you can end up paying more. So they can swing both ways on you and they do so quickly. You also have to stay on top of these kinds of orders... you can't just push BUY and then forget about them. If you're trying to capture the next dividend - you can miss out on something like that if you get too cute.

captainofiron 01-08-2015 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 588754)
So awesome! Here's the deal about using limit orders... over the long run - given the amount of shares to be bought or sold the actual total amount doesn't really make much of a difference. Where the difference comes into play is that you FEEL good about it. And that's very very important for people. Never underestimate the power of feeling "successful" regardless of the size or dollars. Even scoring $20 on a bet can be a far more powerful feeling than being on the losing side of that $20.

Beware of the pitfalls though of using limit orders when they DON'T get filled - and then RISE and you can end up paying more. So they can swing both ways on you and they do so quickly. You also have to stay on top of these kinds of orders... you can't just push BUY and then forget about them. If you're trying to capture the next dividend - you can miss out on something like that if you get too cute.

Yea I wasnt trying to get too cute or too smart for my own good

Well I set aside some cash to invest in oil while its down, call it a gamble if you will. But I used half one day with the limit order and it dropped about 0.50 less than what I got it for, so the next day I did the same thing, but it dropped again, today its up, so I definitely feel good about it, I was down like 10% with all the oil price drops on my energy sector, but after I used that limit stop, its only like 7%
Feels like a winning move to me, haha

thanks again

GregWeld 01-08-2015 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainofiron (Post 588775)
Yea I wasnt trying to get too cute or too smart for my own good

Well I set aside some cash to invest in oil while its down, call it a gamble if you will. But I used half one day with the limit order and it dropped about 0.50 less than what I got it for, so the next day I did the same thing, but it dropped again, today its up, so I definitely feel good about it, I was down like 10% with all the oil price drops on my energy sector, but after I used that limit stop, its only like 7%
Feels like a winning move to me, haha

thanks again


Good moves! Glad this worked out for you. Wasn't singling you out -- when I respond I need to respond in a way that everyone learns something or gets some info to think about.

Half the game is MENTAL --- the other half is just doing. Many get paralysis by analysis... or "wait fever" and never can pull the trigger because they just know they're going save a nickel tomorrow.... tomorrow never comes and the waiting turns into wasting time.

chichirone 01-08-2015 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 588123)
Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's) "dividend" is actually structured as a "return of capital" rather than a dividend or interest. Therefore the taxes on the "dividend" which is really a return of your capital is treated differently ---- UNTIL YOU SELL!! Of course this is over simplified...

90% of the income of an MLP by definition must be derived from REAL ESTATE - or NATURAL RESOURCES or COMMODITIES. Thus there is no "bank" MLP etc.


The two you mentioned are not themselves MLP's but rather ETF's (exchange traded funds) that INVEST in MLPS to drive their own income and thus declare a dividend to the shareholders.


Of the two mentioned - I'd personally invest in KYN (Kayne Anderson) over Alerian (neither of these are actually MLP's - they derive their income from MLP's).

[B]It's important to note AND UNDERSTAND an MLP (where you are not a shareholder but rather - you are a PARTNER) versus being a STOCKHOLDER in a publicly traded company... So I'd direct anyone interested in these (MLP'S) to go here and make sure you "get it".[/B


http://www.naptp.org/PTP101/Print/Ba...Principles.pdf


Thanks for the insight Greg. Very helpful. The link helps provide greater detail to the topic.

captainofiron 01-09-2015 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 588839)
Good moves! Glad this worked out for you. Wasn't singling you out -- when I respond I need to respond in a way that everyone learns something or gets some info to think about.

Half the game is MENTAL --- the other half is just doing. Many get paralysis by analysis... or "wait fever" and never can pull the trigger because they just know they're going save a nickel tomorrow.... tomorrow never comes and the waiting turns into wasting time.

no worries, didnt take it personal, haha you have made me money, how could I get mad at you, hahaha

GregWeld 01-11-2015 08:07 AM

Here's a very boring - but interesting if read correctly - article on dividends. It's comparing the dividend "growth" and payouts of AT&T (T) and a couple other familiar names.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2810...at-and-t?ifp=0


I wish I'd know you'd all read it - and then we'd come back and dissect it before I make this next statement.

When you're reading this article - he stated that he was NOT considering the dividend reinvestment. To me - that ignores a FAR FAR larger "key" to growing your retirement funds. Reinvesting the dividend is where the snowball affect comes into play. The dividends buy more shares every quarter - paying more dividends buying more shares and so on. So here's my takeaway on the article. If AT&T pays TWICE what PEPSI (PEP) does per quarter... without doing any math - I would think that long term you'd be buying more shares of T thus growing that investment at a faster rate.

It would take me hours to calculate a hypothetical 10,000 investment - then factor in if the stock stayed at the same price year after year - how many shares you'd buy each quarter and so on... to be able to factually work this all out. But it's really really good food for thought when you're COMPARING various investments. It's just another tool in your box to think about.

I think - again - without doing the math here... that the TOTAL RETURN of an investment over the same period of time (we only can see historically what this is) is telling us the historical advantage or disadvantage each investment has.

100% return over 5 years doubles your money in 5 years! Regardless of the dividend percentage you still did a double. If the comparable company is less, then you didn't do as well.

So to use this articles names:

PEPSI (PEP) 5 year TR = 61.4% Pays 2.71%

AT&T (T) 5 year TR = 61.6% Pays 5.6%

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TXN) 5 year TR = 128.3% Pays 2.54%

VERIZON (VZ) 5 year TR = 108% Pays 4.7%


So here's my "thoughts" -- and in full disclosure I own 20,000 shares of AT&T...
When we are looking at the TR we're only looking HISTORICALLY -- we then MUST make some kind of wild ass guess about what the company is going to do going forward. History is nothing but the past - it doesn't guarantee the future. You still must live day to day with your choices and those choices are for reasons only you can detail. I say this because numbers are numbers - they help us and can guide us - but if you buy PEP based on just the numbers -- but you don't like PEPSI and actually buy and drink Coke (KO) products... then what happens to your mind when PEPSI goes down or does something you think is stupid? Ditto this argument on Verizon vs AT&T. I used to own both - I might have made more money holding both... but I like and use AT&T so that's the one I've kept.

What I'm saying here in too many words is -- you still must know and like the companies you invest in. Return numbers are important - don't discount them! 100% is far better than 40%... make no mistake about that. But in DOWN MARKETS you have to be comfortable in your own skin. You can't get to 100% if you sell the first time you freak out.

glassman 01-11-2015 09:17 AM

Great points again Greg. I had forgotten "compounding dividend vs stock growth" (either are important when comparing your ROI vs TR) and refreshing our memories about this is an important (cause its mentioned a few hundred pages back).

On another note, AT&T bought Directv some time back and I missed this transaction on the news. I'm a huge Directv fan and also just found out they launched some "gigatron spaceship" satelite for better band width as video and on demand will become bigger "players".

I see them A- merging (still pending FTC approval) for better market diversification and B- Directv i'm sure sees the programming side "not growing as much" (with the competitors changing how we can prescribe our own programming) so i believe their positioning themselves into a much more wholesaler role. Does this make sense?

Sorry i know this is a "how to buy" thread, not "what to buy" but i'm hoping my third paragraph is more related to thinking theory.....

GregWeld 01-11-2015 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glassman (Post 589173)
Great points again Greg. I had forgotten "compounding dividend vs stock growth" (either are important when comparing your ROI vs TR) and refreshing our memories about this is an important (cause its mentioned a few hundred pages back).

On another note, AT&T bought Directv some time back and I missed this transaction on the news. I'm a huge Directv fan and also just found out they launched some "gigatron spaceship" satelite for better band width as video and on demand will become bigger "players".

I see them A- merging (still pending FTC approval) for better market diversification and B- Directv i'm sure sees the programming side "not growing as much" (with the competitors changing how we can prescribe our own programming) so i believe their positioning themselves into a much more wholesaler role. Does this make sense?
Sorry i know this is a "how to buy" thread, not "what to buy" but i'm hoping my third paragraph is more related to thinking theory.....







First rule of investing.... don't buy anything based on what could or might happen. Buy based on what is at the time. Anything from then on is considered being lucky and is a gift.

What happens is you buy based on some proposed merger or acquisition.... then the government steps in and doesn't allow it or a competitor steps up and makes a competing offer.... and on and on. Sometimes the brains that are much larger than ours - and they have more money (remember that we're always just along for the ride) step in and sell their shares because the purchasing company is acquiring too much debt in the deal... OH BUDDY --- I've seen all these scenarios. I'd refer to this as "being cute". The minute you do that - you get your ass handed to you.

This "being cute" (not saying you did this or that anyone is doing this - remember just responding to "everyone" reading) is called ARBITRAGE on wall street. You're trying to place a bet based on what you think will be the outcome... you can bet on the company being acquired... by buying their shares thinking the board will reject the first offer and the acquirer will raise their bid... or you can buy a competitor thinking that if this deal goes thru for the higher price (usually buyouts come with premium price paid) that it will raise the P/E for the "others".... There's a hundred scenarios to be played. I used to do this all the time. Most of the time it never worked out the way I thought. When it did - I was a hero in my own mind.

If you're young - and smart - and want to game this stuff... and have 10K you're willing to play with... it's fun as hell and can be very profitable. Nothing wrong with it. It's only "wrong" when you bet and it goes against you. Then you sell - and the next week - there's different news and your bet would have paid off.... it's just the way these kind of bets go. Then it's more about knowing what you're doing and knowing yourself and how strong or weak your hand is.

GregWeld 01-12-2015 08:19 AM

Sitting here this morning and the talking heads on CNBC mentioned "Comcast" (CMCSA). Comcast has three classes of stock... but I don't want to talk about "a" stock... and this isn't about Comcast. I don't own it - never looked at it - hate the service when I had it in my house. Here's what I noticed when I looked at the 5 year chart and what I wanted to post about:


Think about if you were retired in 2010... and you owned Comcast "A" shares... and they paid you .09 per quarter. FOUR YEARS later - they're paying you .23 cents per quarter (did you ever get a 100% raise in four short years while working??) - and as a bonus the price of the shares is up 230%

With that kind of a number you could then sell HALF your holdings in this name - and buy something(s) else - and still get the same income you'd counted on 4 years earlier - and use the gain to diversify some more. The shares you held would be considered "playing with the house's money" as they would essentially be "free money" (the gain on the shares).

THAT IS WHY I LOVE DIVIDEND INVESTING -- which, by the way, is not the only way to invest! It's just one way to look at stocks. I like it because it works for me in good times and bad.

GregWeld 01-13-2015 06:18 PM

Today -- actually the last few days -- have been real "interesting". These kinds of swings used to freak me out -- I'd be all in on one day and the next afternoon the sky was falling, and I'd sell all. Then I'm sitting with a pile of cash - and things would flatten out or rise a bit and I'd be all in again. I look back 20 years and think that had I stayed put what my net worth would be today. I bought STARBUCKS IPO at $14.50 a share (1000 shares).... flipped them out the following Friday for a gain of $500 and thought what a score I'd just made. IDIOT! LOL


So let's talk about MOMENTUM.... Momentum is when a stock trades up (or down) just because.... there's no real fundamentals... the earnings (P/E) couldn't possibly enter into the equation because it's so far out of whack... but everybody you know is into "it". And the talking heads on CNBC/Bloomberg discuss "it" every half an hour. These kinds of names work magic.... while they're working. That's the hard part. Nobody can know when they're going to quit working and the UP momentum turns south. All the people that were in it to win it -- suddenly don't want to touch "it", and sell out as fast as they can.

Let's use the action in GoPRO (GPRO) today as nothing more than an example... Pull up a chart and stretch it out to "all". What I want you to look at this time is the VOLUME hashes along the bottom of the chart. Notice the SPIKES UP in volume and follow that spike in volume straight up to the PRICE action in the line representing the price. Notice it DIPS (drops) at almost every spike in share "volume" (meaning shares exchanged hands). That's people selling -- and of course others have to buy or you wouldn't have a transaction. My guess is people are trying to buy on the dips... That can turn into trying to catch a falling knife -- or can work well if the momentum continues in the name. Hard to know which way it will go.

Note that there's also a couple spikes where the shares go UP as well. They seem to be EARLY ON in the life of this stock. Since then the spikes have all been selling pressure.

I don't care if you own GoPro - what I'm showing you here is just some more "fodder" to look at when you're thinking about jumping into or out of a name. Remember that the rule of any market is that prices RISE when there's more buyers than sellers - and the reverse is true when there's more sellers than buyers.

In this example -- had you gotten in early enough - you'd still have a very nice gain (60%)... but if you got in later -- after you kept hearing that this was the next free rocket ship to wealth -- well then, you might not be so happy with it right now (a decline of 21% YTD). This is when you start to question your intentions. Not a bad thing. It happens. You never question yourself when the stuff is shooting to the moon! You only start to question your holdings when they're going down or go underwater. Was this an INVESTMENT? Or did you think/hope it would just go up 10 or 20 bucks a share and you'd scoop the gain and be gone? Now what to do. Maybe now you're underwater for 10 instead of up 10....

THIS IS WHAT PEOPLE HATE ABOUT INVESTING!!

It's EASY when everything is going your way.... it's damn hard when it isn't. That is what I'm always talking about when I say - I like to own stuff I can sleep with. A couple bad names in the portfolio can kill the performance of the good ones. Not sure why that is - but they always seem to fall harder and faster than they went up. They tend to creep up - a buck here - 50 cents there... but when they suck - they suck in a day or two!

I don't care about this name (GoPro)... I'm discussing the market... how you see the market... and learning from it. That's the key - we want to be better next time... we want to understand BEFORE we go into something what the pitfalls are. It's hard to make and KEEP money - it's really way easier to lose it. Whether you're into this kind of stuff or not - you should be watching it. Learning from it. Many times we get clobbered by something we'd never have guessed. That's life. It happens. Oil is a great example. Anything to do with oil is just getting hammered right now. Unforeseen! Who the hell would have guessed that! Not me! There is always "market risk". I build that in when I look at the dividend percentage. I think - if this sucks - am I okay with the dividend? It helps. It doesn't cover the sin - but it helps take some of the sting out. It's another lesson I've learned along the way. Another one is the 5% rule. If you can try to stick with that rule the losers don't hurt as much. Load the boat up (get greedy?!?) and one bad period can ruin your performance temporarily (or longer!).

GregWeld 01-13-2015 06:57 PM

Warren Buffett once famously said, "If you don't feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don't own it for 10 minutes."



That's pretty good thinking right there.....

GregWeld 01-14-2015 09:13 AM

By the way... to be certain of what I'm discussing above is NOT that nobody should buy these types of stocks - The GoPro's / Tesla's / Alibaba's etc.... there "can be" huge money made in these kinds of stocks! What I'm talking about is if you're a relative newb to investing - you're trying to build some retirement - you have "limited" funds (say less than 100 grand already saved and invested)... BEWARE the gut wrenching drops stocks like these can take. You won't know if you're ready to stomach that until it's actually your hard earned money. It's not hard to take if you're just watching them do this. It's far far harder when it's real money.


Another one today is Tesla (TSLA).... down $13 ish today and $100 off it's high. This was a market darling - and plenty of people have made a nice gain on the shares... but many bought it $100 "ago". OUCH.

SSLance 01-14-2015 09:58 AM

I sold out of MCD several months ago at about what I paid for it. It wasn't until just the other day when I noticed their new ad campaign on TV that I went back to look at their chart since I sold it. Still glad I sold it. :)

And I'm happy with the rest of what I kept, plenty happy enough to own them for 10 years.

The DOW chart the last 5 days has been CRAZY.

On a side note, commodities... I know it's not talked about on here much, but I have some grain (corn and soybeans) from the 2014 harvest that I've stored until 2015 to delay the income tax on the sale. Watching the grain prices go up and down is VERY much like watching just the DOW...and just about as frustrating. The commodity traders are just like the damn equity day traders, for the most part they drive the price of grains up and\or down, only instead of earnings, news bumps, rumors, etc to spike or drop the prices, it's yield counts, cargo sales overseas and fund buying making spikes and dips for the traders to make money on.

GregWeld 01-21-2015 07:38 AM

All I can say is ---- I sure hope some of you own NetFlix (NFLX)! Just WOW!

WSSix 01-21-2015 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 590872)
All I can say is ---- I sure hope some of you own NetFlix (NFLX)! Just WOW!

Nope, but I did snatch up some JNJ yesterday. So far, my waiting a little bit to fund my roth this year is paying off. Normally, I would have had JNJ funded by now and taken the hit instead of getting it on sale.

A few more of my positions are set to report q4 2014 earnings soon. I may wait to fund them after their reports come in.

glassman 01-21-2015 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 590872)
All I can say is ---- I sure hope some of you own NetFlix (NFLX)! Just WOW!

Just heard that. I woulda put money on them "going down", meanwhile, my dumass is watching everybody and their brothers buying this product. I really should start paying attention....

GregWeld 01-22-2015 08:25 AM

This thread was started December 2011.... Thought I'd take a look at a few of the names that have been used in this thread for examples, for no other reason than to see where a guy would be if he'd put some money in the market at that time.


This is purely a price comparison - no dividends included or re-invested etc.

AT&T - Up 15.65%

Con ED - Up - 23.32%

Coke - Up - 33.77%

Pepsi - Up - 55.91%

McDonalds - DOWN - 2.16%

Altria - UP - 99.01%

Philip Morse - Up - 18.76%



An even better eyeopener would be what dividend (in dollars) they were paying and what they're paying now.

These numbers are PER QUARTER.... so annually the increases need to be multiplied by FOUR.


AT&T - then .44 - NOW .47

Con ED - then .61 - NOW .63

Coke - then .24 - NOW .31

Pepsi - then .52 - NOW .66

McDonalds - then .70 - NOW .85

Altria - then .41 - NOW .52

Philip Morse - Then .77 - NOW 1.00

captainofiron 01-24-2015 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glassman (Post 590896)
Just heard that. I woulda put money on them "going down", meanwhile, my dumass is watching everybody and their brothers buying this product. I really should start paying attention....

Im in the same boat, only thing that keeps me from buying is that I think it will inevitably go down as some other tech/service comes out that becomes hot and makes Netflix obsolete

captainofiron 01-26-2015 04:52 PM

Seagate (STX) took a dump on me today, I was looking at it and my other big performer and was thinking about selling what I had made on them to buy something else, then the rug got pulled out from under STX this morning

GregWeld 01-27-2015 08:27 AM

There are so many "things" happening around the world that it makes a guy have mixed feelings about what picture we should have going forward. Europe in recession... Russia in recession... China growth slowing... Terrorism around the globe.

Falling oil prices are supposed to be a "gift" to everyone's pocketbook. Even I notice the difference when I fill up. Yet - there is little doubt that people in the oil patch will suffer as layoffs occur and drillers etc slow their buying of whatever it is that they need to operate.

HO HUM! The same news with different headlines has been going on since the beginning of time. Just put a different name on a country with problems... or a "monetary" crisis somewhere... and I can't ever remember when there wasn't a war somewhere in the world.

Here's what I have noticed lately that may be a little different. If a company misses their numbers - they get HAMMERED. Not often have I seen companies sell off 10% in minutes after they've reported a miss. What this signals to me is that people want an excuse to sell something. Anything. To me that means people have grown "skittish". Something in the air is making people nervous or unsure. When you're unsure or nervous - you sell.... sellers deflate the price.

The biggest gainers usually deflate the fastest. But remember, if you've been in the market awhile - and the stock has run 30% - and drops 10%.. you still have a gain.

Don't forget that you're the best human intelligence around. How's your company doing. Business good? Are your friends businesses good? Or? Be aware of what's going on around you. Houses sitting or are they sold in a month or so... The restaurant you go to frequently busy or just plugging along... Doesn't mean you need to react in your accounts - it's just another thing in investing to learn. Be heads up and pay attention to your own sense of wellbeing.

captainofiron 01-29-2015 10:55 AM

my Conoco has been hit pretty hard the past week.

My dad works for Halliburton and works alot in the Eagle Ford, and he says they are slashing costs left and right

I hadnt seen gasoline this cheap in a long long time

its definitely unnerving, but like you said Greg, you dont lose money until you sell

Vince@Meanstreets 01-29-2015 12:01 PM

Buy buy buy! well soon.

Vince@Meanstreets 01-29-2015 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 591898)
There are so many "things" happening around the world that it makes a guy have mixed feelings about what picture we should have going forward. Europe in recession... Russia in recession... China growth slowing... Terrorism around the globe.

Falling oil prices are supposed to be a "gift" to everyone's pocketbook. Even I notice the difference when I fill up. Yet - there is little doubt that people in the oil patch will suffer as layoffs occur and drillers etc slow their buying of whatever it is that they need to operate.

HO HUM! The same news with different headlines has been going on since the beginning of time. Just put a different name on a country with problems... or a "monetary" crisis somewhere... and I can't ever remember when there wasn't a war somewhere in the world.

Here's what I have noticed lately that may be a little different. If a company misses their numbers - they get HAMMERED. Not often have I seen companies sell off 10% in minutes after they've reported a miss. What this signals to me is that people want an excuse to sell something. Anything. To me that means people have grown "skittish". Something in the air is making people nervous or unsure. When you're unsure or nervous - you sell.... sellers deflate the price.

The biggest gainers usually deflate the fastest. But remember, if you've been in the market awhile - and the stock has run 30% - and drops 10%.. you still have a gain.

Don't forget that you're the best human intelligence around. How's your company doing. Business good? Are your friends businesses good? Or? Be aware of what's going on around you. Houses sitting or are they sold in a month or so... The restaurant you go to frequently busy or just plugging along... Doesn't mean you need to react in your accounts - it's just another thing in investing to learn. Be heads up and pay attention to your own sense of wellbeing.

Plus the airlines must be getting killed right now. They hedge fuel and they might be stuck with 2014 pricing for a while.
Mark my words, this oil drop is going to start WWIII or conflict XXVVIIM

GregWeld 01-29-2015 05:23 PM

The oil price drop is definitely a "disruptor"..... Good in so many ways -- terrible in so many ways... We can't even imagine all the ways good and bad. If you're buying oil to make a product etc -- you're a happy guy! If you're a driller - or in that "supply" side of things -- we've yet to see all the fallout. For me -- I'm just holding what I have... KMI -- ETP -- BPT.... These three in the oil "space". They pay me good dividends --- and that's the take away here. They pay me to wait and see. I'll only get killed if it's so disruptive that they cut or suspend the dividend.

My "oil / pipes / infrastructure" dividends at risk are 124K per year.... so there's some risk there.


Now --- Per my earlier discussion about maniac (ma nye ick) swings in prices.... WOW --- AMAZON reports and the shares jump $40 in aftermarket trading... Alibaba (BABA) doesn't make as good of a growth number as people expect and it drops 8 or 9 bucks...


It's so fun to be on the sidelines and watch this stuff.... and man I wished I owned AMZN and got that $40 pop!! But it's those pops and drops that just cut a guy to pieces! For every POP up you get --- if you're into these kinds of high fliers -- they CUT just as easily on the way down. That's the old "risk / reward" of the market.

GregWeld 02-04-2015 07:30 AM

Interesting how much of a difference being in the "right" stock makes...


I saw that Chipotle Mexican Grille (CMG) was going to be down "pre market" about $46 bucks a share. So of course I had to go see what that was all about (I don't own it)... Seems they only grew their net income 52% for the quarter. What bums!! (being factious here).


Being the stock investigator I am... it's a habit... I always learn something snooping around. I decided to pull up their chart. Bumpy?!?!? OMG.... so real roller coaster ups and downs there to be sure... but remember the big goal? Lower on the left and higher on the right! It's UP 600% in five years. HUGE.

So I overlay McDonalds (MCD) over the chart ---- it's UP 50% in five years. Not horrible. Not the 100% in that time that many stocks are - but it always was a good steady grower. Older bigger companies don't grow as fast as smaller new companies (generally). But 50% vs 600% ----- WOW. So the point is down 50 bucks today isn't a big deal if you've owned the shares for more than about 6 months. LOL

SSLance 02-04-2015 08:10 AM

Anyone following the refinery workers strike (and it's effects on other parts of the oil market)?

My brother is in the non-destructive testing field of work, they do a ton of work for refineries. They have enacted contingency plans as a large portion of their business just stopped or is getting ready to stop completely...until this gets straightened out.

GregWeld 02-10-2015 11:27 AM

As I sit here on the balcony of my room overlooking the Pacific Ocean... and listening to the relentless pounding of the surf... Reading the latest "market news" I saw a news line about Coke (KO) raising prices - which lead to a quarterly earnings beat. Of course I had to go read this and check the price action out. A nice move today on a $42 stock. Nothing earth shaking - no doubling.. just a move in the way the surf does... a little up and little down -- the surf struck me as the way the market works. Sometimes storms make bigger moves - some days are strikingly calm... but it's always moving.

Going to KO chart -- It's UP over 60% in five years - shows a 2 for one split - pays over 3% dividend. 60% over five years is a very nice steady surf like growth in your money. What's more important is that you most likely won't wake up one morning to find half of your money gone in an instant. Very comforting... owning it won't get you bragging rights at the office water cooler... but you might retire quite nicely one day and join me on the beach. Fat and happy. LOL


Just for fun I overlayed the latest market darling.... GoPro (GPRO). No question about it -- had you bought at the IPO price... you'd have a nice QUICK gain of 38% in about a 6 month time frame.... no dividend payment... you must rely on it to continue to expand it's already lofty P/E.... If it can grow the earnings - your price will MAYBE expand. In the meantime you've been on a huge roller coaster. Nothing wrong with the roller coaster ride IF you can stomach it. That is for you and you only to know. Your time line - your confidence - your stockpile. I am not advocating either stock or either way of investing... and the best bet would be to perhaps own a little of each once you're in the comfortable position of feeling secure in your base holdings.


To be sure - my statements about what I'm doing - or my personal positions are to GOAD you all into raising your game. It is NOT bragging - nor is it meant to stick my tongue out at you. Think of it more as a build you're watching - If you're watching Stielow build his cars - you should want to emulate and learn from what he's doing. Money is the same way - or should be... but nobody ever talks about "that"! Investing is like building your skills and building a car... you learn from others - you aspire to be like that guy... or have a car like that.

WSSix 02-11-2015 09:31 AM

Good post, Greg.

GregWeld 02-12-2015 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WSSix (Post 594141)
Good post, Greg.




Thanks Trey! I'm always wondering if anyone is still reading.


Still trying to keep this "102".... and just help people to look and think about "the market" as the thoughts come into my head. What I really hope is that people that have followed along for awhile have come to view the market differently... instead of scary... it's more of an understanding of the ups and downs....

The part that still gets to me is that this whole time - the market has been the BULL (meaning going up). WE WILL eventually change to a BEAR market... and that's when I really hope people have learned not to panic sell and change their strategy. When it's all going up it's so f'n easy. It gets real hard to pile in fresh money when it's not all roses. But that is when the big money is made.

ironworks 02-12-2015 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 594352)
Thanks Trey! I'm always wondering if anyone is still reading.



HUH.... What did you say?

WSSix 02-12-2015 12:54 PM

I read everyday. I'm just sitting back and watching my stocks at this point. I've made almost all my purchases for 2015 for my Roth. I left a little behind in case my oil stocks drop even lower. Then I can get an even better deal. I'll only give it a little more time though as I don't want to miss a dividend payment.

I'm still very torn on my MCD stock though. A big part of me says to sell but the other part says be patient. The two stocks I'm considering as replacements are capital driven instead of dividend plays. So I'm just not sure yet what I'll do.

My one oil gamble stock has gone down so much I was able to buy 50% more shares for only $100. I figure for such a little amount, I could take the risk. Sure, it may be $100 more, which is minor overall, that I lose but the reward could be so much better. I expect it to be rocky for some time but ultimately work out in the end. I may, however, sale it as soon as it goes green just to be done with it, lol. Time will tell.

Oh and the little man behind the curtain screwed me. I bought SO two hours before it crapped itself. I even waited for the Q4 2014 earnings report to see how they were doing, which was good. Then they announced the delay on the nuke plant down here and it dropped. Oh well, I own enough, and at lower prices, that the dividend makes up for the current loses from the new shares I just bought.

Thanks again, Greg

Payton King 02-12-2015 01:18 PM

One of the first places I read when I get on Lat-G

glassman 02-12-2015 02:01 PM

:popcorn2: yep, same here. When "EF Hutton talks, people listen", btw, what ever happened to them?

GregWeld 02-12-2015 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glassman (Post 594378)
:popcorn2: yep, same here. When "EF Hutton talks, people listen", btw, what ever happened to them?

It's part of smith Barney now...

captainofiron 02-13-2015 05:36 PM

I still read everything you post Greg, just dont have any moolah to throw around at stocks right now, haha

PaulHarrell 02-15-2015 02:16 AM

RECOVERY ROOM, Thanks for your suggestion.

Sieg 02-15-2015 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainofiron (Post 594583)
I still read everything you post Greg, just dont have any moolah to throw around at stocks right now, haha

Good for you, when you do.......you won't throw it down a dark hole. :thumbsup:


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