That is what I was thinking. I did not want to own 20 stocks with $33,000 in the market just to get to the 5% goal. Time to max out my wife and Is Roths for the year. Thanks Fellas

A very common dilemma!!! Most tend to want to pile into the winners... and loathe putting more money into "bad" investments (the losers). What I want to do is what feels right at the time.... and what my thinking is about how long the losers are going to maybe be losers... and whether or not they're going to be down long enough for me to put money in later rather than be "early" and have 'em sit and be sad sacks.

Right now the market is just a disaster - which is a good opportunity to buy some things at LOWER PRICES than they've been at. Lower prices does NOT mean they're at their lows... they're just lower than where they were or have been.

So -- do what you feel right about... and give some thought to what your time frame is for when you think the losers might begin some recovery. If they're oil related - my sense is you have a year or so maybe less... So there's plenty of time to wait on the side until you have confirmation these are coming back. If they're just market losers because the whole market is down - then those should come back when the market turns back.

You also may want to look at this in another way -- i.e., look at what percentage each name is down -- and then see which name(s) could be invested in to average your yield up and your cost down.... so maybe it's only 2 or 3 names that are down just a few percentage points - and buying more shares of them would raise your yield half or more points.

Without divulging how much you have to invest -- remember that you don't need to buy an entire position all at once... and you don't need to invest 100% of the funds you have all at once. If you have $4,000 ---- try to identify what it is you want to buy - and how many shares total - and then just invest $1,000 and wait - see where we're going - up or down - and put some more to work. Or if you want to own 20 shares of X -- just buy 10 now - and wait and so on.

Like you've said before....."Scale in" ........

That actually brings up a question. The law says I have until Tax day 2016 for the 2015 IRA investment year. Do the funds just have to be placed into the account before Tax day to count for 2015? Or do I have to actually invest said funds before Tax day?

Yeah, that's what I started working on today...checking and calculating the yields out. That makes good sense. BTW, the freaking ETP yield is 14% right now... :EmoteClueless: :topic: I also looked at which of my stocks are paying dividends soon...

You just have to have the funds into the account... It can sit there in cash all it wants too...

Just funded. Nothing says you can't hold cash in an account. So you're good to go.

Thats why I love to stash in KO.... that stock just sits flat no matter what is going on with the market. And its a divi stock. win win

All accounts NEED "steady Eddies". People get upset when the market is going up and their steady eddies just kinda plod along. They think they're "losing out" on all the big gains. But man are they happy owning them when the market is crappy and the old steady eddy is holding up their entire account.

That's the thing about investing - and everything we've discussed for the last half a zillion pages....

Don't get greedy
own some steady eddies
own dividend stocks - so you're earning while things are flat or down
own the best of the best - so you feel good about what you own
be patient
buy when things are "on sale"
don't load the boat with too much of any one thing - the 5% rule
scale in
scale out
watch for fundamental changes - they can go either way

GoPro (GPRO)
 

Boy is this market poopie....

I remember discussing many of the Wall Street darlings - IPO's of late - late being within the last couple years.... since there were so many big ones that came to market.

Just noticed GoPro (GPRO) which many of us use to capture our track events etc.... has just absolutely tanked since hitting it's euphoric high of $65... They just announced layoffs (they coat it in PC speak of realigning with the needs of the company. LOL)... and it's now trading at $14.61

JUST OUCH -- even if you managed to buy on the first day.

I have some "oil and related" that are just as bad. Not picking on GoPro.... just saying - sometimes these IPO's don't pan out with the hype they come on the market with.

Biggest down slide I've seen since I started this a bit over 2 years ago. It's only a mud puddle in the road of prosperity and financial freedom.:relax:

Ok, I'll play the optimist, I remember 1999 and 2008, this one is nothing but a buying opportunity compared to those.

I'm getting a large chunk of cash from the sale of a house that'll I'll have to put to work. I always figured that would be easier than taking the losses I did in those past drops but now that I'm here, it really isn't. There is that fear of making the same mistakes again.

Thats what im saying...I made a killing with AIG and SAH back then. Couple friends did real well, im talking retired at 45 good. its only research.

Sorry - this was a confusing post to me. I can't tell if what you're saying is - that in the past you sold low?? And therefore this time around you plan to buy low? Having learned NOT to sell low. Or that you're afraid this time around too?

Thank gawd some folks are LEARNING!!! Buy low -- painful? Yep. Harder to do than when the stocks are flying higher? Yep. Smarter by a margin of 10,000? Yep.

It's actually kinda interesting. One of the first investments I made was in a mutual fund called PBHG Technology and Communications, probably in the early to mid 90's. I noticed the technology revolution fairly early on and nothing more than a little common sense told that it should continue and grow quite rapidly, which it did.

A $2500 investment in that fund peaked at just over $200k. Somewhere around there I was talking to my father about selling it all because even though I was a complete newb it just didn't make sense to me that it could go up that fast and stay there ("irrational exuberance" maybe? Hmm). Well my dad had a friend who personally knew the manager of another big super successful technology fund, Firsthand Technology Value, and got it straight from him that things were solid and not to worry. Still didn't compute to me but I figured he was a big successful fund manager and what did my totally novice common sense have over all that experience, so I just stayed invested and watched it go back down.

Each time I checked it my thoughts were something like "well hell, it's gone down that far already, can't go down that much more so might as well just ride it out now". This was also the first time, but not the only, that I hesitated in doing something due to the big tax bill it would create (never mind the huge profit I would have realized, that was nowhere near as important apparently).

Well I did eventually get out of it, but not until after most of those gains had vaporized and well after the original PBHG top brass had gotten in trouble or possibly even indicted for wrongdoings and the fund was taken over by another fund company.

In 2008 I wasn't really invested all that much as we had burned through all our cash on fertility treatments trying to have another kid. One thing stands out in my mind at that time though. I distinctly remember Jim Cramer asking viewers if they were ready for Dow 7000 and I remember thinking WHAT???, no way that could happen. Well that was at about Dow 10,000 mid 2008 and we all know where it went from there.

What do I know but this time around, right now, looks more like a normal, healthy correction fueled by what's happened in China as well as an irrational fear of rising interest rates (which are still historically extremely low).

Think 2008 can't happen again? Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, read about "bespoke tranche opportunities". Here is one good one I found that sort of explains it:

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/201...d-now-america/

Is that why its called "paying" attention?

Holey Crap!

http://thesource.com/2016/01/15/chip...res-for-a-day/

CHIPOTLE WILL BE CLOSING ALL OF ITS STORES FOR A DAY

ROCKO RATHON JANUARY 15, 2016
Unfortunately for all lovers of Chipotle, they will have to go without the popular franchise on February 8, 2016 as all of the chains will be closed that day. The move comes after quite a few of their locations were forced to shut down permanently when an E.coli outbreak in 2015 and a norovirus outbreak infected 141 people in Boston, MA, which was one of the worst in history.

All of this of course was a public relations nightmare and CEO Steve Ellis took full responsibility in a open letter and ensured customers that this will never happen again. The nation wide close on the 8th of next month will be for a company-wide meeting where food safety will be the main topic of discussion. To make it all up to customers, Chipotle will be doubling up on the amount of free food given upon their return.

The market is poopie no doubt.... but here's what I want you to focus on. Your guts. Are you full of fear when you look at your account? Do you see this sell off as the end of your investing and you're telling yourself you should have never ever gotten in the market because it's doing exactly what you feared? Or do you look at this as a set up for buying lower, so you can kill it when the market rebounds?

You need to pay attention to these feelings - because investing is about emotions many times. Emotions can override your brain and make you do things that aren't good for you.

I reminded people many times to "take stock" so to speak when the market was going up every day.... and to remember how that felt - so you could recall that when the market SUCKS. Well.... now it sucks.... and I want you to remember how you feel about it. Because if you're going to be a true investor - there will be MANY highs and lows over many years. Days when you're just crushing it - and days when you wonder what the hell are you doing.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Lance mentions Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) -- it's been a tremendous stock for quite a while now.... huge gains -- and also some huge dips. I've personally bought and sold it many times. It's not a core holding for me because it's expensive - and it doesn't pay a dividend... BUT ---- if a guy was patient and bought near the 400ish low this last week... he's picked up $75 a share in just the last 4 days of so. If you're a longer term player and you bought this stock back in 2006 or 07 or 08 or 09 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13..... you have a gain even with the selloff. If you bought recently - you're feeling used and abused.

The company has had some issues - no question about that!! Will it regain it's luster? Who knows? My personal guess is - it will learn from this bad experience and institute some controls so this doesn't happen again. I wish there was one around me because I loved the food and the concept. I'd like one here because it would give me a read on traffic and whether or not the customer abandoned them or are they coming back and creating lines again. Without that read - I can't make an investment. I need that sense of how it's going.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Oil and related:

I continuously hear the talking heads on TV telling me how lower oil prices are good for the consumer. I'm calling this nothing but talking head bullcrap. The damage this is doing to the COUNTRIES that produce - our STATES that produce - The suppliers that feed this industry pipe and pumps and trucks and anything else they use -- they HAVE to be feeling this big time. California is a producer - Alaska - The Dakotas - Texas.... Oil is important to these regions. So I ask myself -- is it important that I'm saving (pocketing) $30 a week when I fill up the Jeep -- or is it more important that Caterpillar (CAT) sells a $400K tractor... I personally feel these low prices are HURTING the economy not helping it. Where it goes is anybodies guess. We'll just have to wait and see where this goes.

Couple of things come to mind here:


NEVER be afraid to take a profit (gain).

Nobody ever went broke taking a gain.

When your gain hit big time -- I'd have been scaling it back.... paying the taxes and reinvesting it in other things. THEY ALL might have taken a huge hit in '08 etc --- but the hit would have been to "free money (the gains)".... and as long as you were ahead of the original $2500... that's what counts.

It's okay to go with your gut feeling! What else is there?!?

None of us will ever get it exactly right. For every gut feeling that had us take a gain or loss.... there will be plenty that hit you broadside -- or that keep running after you take some off the top. I've never gotten it perfect. Never will.

All excellent points, and lessons I learned the hard way.

Big fat yes to this. ^^^ Everyone I talk to is excited at the prospect of very low gas prices.... it's not a good thing I tell them. They don't get it.

Once the drillers, frackers etc... start throwing in the towel, the high yield credit market will be decimated along with pain felt in many other areas of our economy. Hopefully wise decisions are made and we roll through this.

Apparently the International Monetary Fund agrees with my "cheap oil" assessment!! LOL


http://www.financialexpress.com/arti...conomy/198333/

Days like today make me think I need to have money sitting as cash in my brokerage account ready to pounce instead of be delayed 3 days or more waiting on the money to transfer.

Crazy times.

There's no hurry Trey. If you're a "trader" - then penny's make a difference.... but if you're buying shares to hold for 2 or 3 years (or way longer) - then try not to get to caught up in the daily swings. You - like all of us - just hates to miss a dollar move, but it's only really a "feel good" thing because in the end it won't affect your performance over the long run.

Apparently Mr Market enjoyed KMI's earnings call yesterday. :thankyou:

KMI has been a hard one to own for sure! I'm in it 25,000 shares -- and it's down huge (66% one year)... and the 75% cut in the dividend certainly didn't help -- although will help the company long term (which I'm okay with). An almost 20% bounce up today just shows you how fast things can go "the other way" if there's favorable news (thus the reason I won't sell and guarantee myself the loss!). It's a good - well run entity - that is collateral damage in the Saudi oil "war".

CNBC had a lady on today that owned a "hardware store" in the oil patch somewhere in Texas (sorry - didn't pay any attention to the details)... and she said that business was off 90% - and that they can't continue much longer at that rate. This is the kind of thing that I look at (bigger picture) which lead me to post the "low oil might not be so hot" sentiment. It'll take a lot of consumerism to make up for entire business's going out of business!

The cut in dividend on KMI alone - chopped my dividend from $50K a year to $12,500 ---- not a personal "biggie" for me --- but that dividend is paid to lots and lots of people - and it might be a biggie for many. Cuts like that far surpass the little bit their saving on a tank of gas!

I've been lurking for a while on this forum and this is my first post. I've been trying to read as much as I can on this thread but admittedly haven't gotten through it all so I hope I am not repeating a question that has already been answered...

I follow the automotive industry pretty closely and am seeing EV cars and autonomous driving making some big strides lately. So, I have been searching to find the suppliers that will be growing along with this market. For example, every EV needs a battery pack and autonomous cars use a ton of cameras... Am i one the right track here?

I am just a beginner and will continue reading so I can better understand what a "good" company looks like. I am getting a little bit overwhelmed however with trying to find the suppliers for each company and model (Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, etc.) so any tips on how to go about a search like this would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks to everyone who has shared advice so far... I hope I can return the favor someday.

Welcome MB. Take your time and keep researching the avenues you're interested in. I know nothing about what you're interested in so I can't help other than to say be patient, balance your risks, and don't get emotional.

Agree 100% Greg. I added to a position today and it's only 1% higher than yesterday. It's long term stuff of course so it doesn't matter really. I just hate missing an opportunity to average down my cost basis.

So, before the rapid expansion of fracking and the Eagle Ford field exploration and $100 per barrel oil what was the business model of the "hardware store"? Texas has gone through wild swings since oil was first drilled here. One year they are millionaires driving around in overalls in 1 ton pickups trying to figure out how to spend all the money the next year they are all broke and telling the hard luck stories. Meanwhile the rest of us here just work our regular boring jobs and somehow get by. Fortunately since the big bust of the 80s Texas has diversified and the oil lows do not hammer the whole state. When I was interviewing when I went to college the first time (BSME), I avoided the oil companies for that reason. And again, 8 years later, when I went back again (MSME) I was actively aggressively recruited by a few oil companies and oil tool manufacturers and did not interview with a single one.

What does this have to do with "102". Be careful pursuing the latest hot trend, there is almost always a correction looming on the horizon. Many of my peers that went into that field are now doing something else in a different field.

In my industry (semiconductor) the environment of the past few years has been surprisingly hot and the vendors are struggling to keep pace. But, they have been burned so badly in the past that they are wary about increasing capacity and cost. I know - I used to work at one of the capitol equipment manufacturers and our plant was shut down in 2003. In a way I think it is a good thing that they limit their growth. They are artificially throttling the growth and thus reduce the swings. Now semiconductor has its swings also, but it is a bit more stable and forgiving.

I've been going through this thread, but at 500+ pages, it may take a while...

I do have a question that may have been answered before. I currently have investments in a company 401k and a personal account invested in dividend stocks working toward compound interest. The question is, Is there ever a time when you should just liquidate everything to turn it into cash? The last downturn did a number on my investments, so I'm wondering if there is a threshold on this.

Again, sorry if this has been asked before.

-Mark

I went through the oil industry from 10-14 mainly in the Granite Wash which is Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. There are a lot of people hurting right now. Those parts of the country don't have a lot to offer by way of careers. People did whatever they could to make ends meet and take advantage of the boom. A lot of people moved to the area to work. Unemployment in the area was very low. Plenty of money was made by all involved but it's not a life time career in my opinion. Then again, I got out for a reason.

Not if you want to continued to be called fearless :D

Seriously though, I'd have to say it's way too personal of a decision to give a general answer to. What I can tell you is a lot of people like Greg and others that have been doing this a long time said they held on for the ride and made out well in the end because they didn't sell when it got rough. I think it's going to depend on what company you're invested in and just how well their business will survive whatever obstacle its facing. This is why you diversify. To me, this is also why you invest in very solid, read boring, companies that aren't going to make you rich overnight.

I've been on all sides of this decision, started investing in the late 90s and have seen 3 major market busts during that time. I've been all in, done real well at times...and went to 100% cash back in 2011...completely fed up with the market.

With the help of this thread, I've been tip toeing back into the market since early 2014...only this time in a different way than ever before. I'm still less than 50% invested and still averaging in, but I will say this downturn has felt completely different for me than any other. I'm still sleeping soundly at night and waiting for chances to trickle more back into my core holdings.

Nobody can tell you what to do, you have to pick your comfort level yourself. Being an informed investor and understanding the companies you own helps tremendously with the comfort levels. Good luck...

Well said Lance.

Welcome! Personally I think this is still very speculative as far as investing goes but they are definitely coming. How well they are received by the driving public remains to be seen I think. It will undoubtedly take some time for people to get used to.

I'm not recommending any of these companies per say but aside from Google, Apple, and any of the automakers working on this (basically all of them) you can research NXPI / FSL (merging), HAR and MBLY for starters and please share what you come up with.

Excellent question --- one I personally have no answer for as far as what companies to look at. I've not looked into that angle of the car industry.

Many people "reverse engineer" Apple products looking for what's inside so they can invest in those suppliers -- basically the exact same thing you're asking about....

I could write a book about the pitfalls of this style of investing... basically gambling - on which "technology" is going to be adopted. When things are in their infancy - new companies can spring up basically overnight, with the latest greatest advance. I'm not saying NOT to invest this way though. Generally it is going to work out better for an investor if they have some kind of inside track (deep knowledge) of who, what, and where these types of technology are headed. Many times these companies are private -- and funded via VC and Angel money.

I'd be very interested in any info you dig up - as this IS a car website/forum - and it's an interesting investing angle as well.

Totally agree with this Trey.... it's like investing in the "home builders" -- that entire industry lives in a boom/bust cycle. This is why I've chosen to invest in the transport/storage/supply pipes etc (such as KMI and ETP) -- but that certainly has only been a "proxy" for what's gone on in the oil patch. I didn't expect it to get hit so hard and be so linked (as no matter the price of the oil/gas - you still need to move it somewhere...).

I'm not sure who your using but Schwab has treated me great. As long as they see a money transfer from my bank account(3 days) I have been able to put my order in. The trades have been in the hundreds of dollars. They did mention that larger sums have different expectations. So just do the money transfer from your funding source when you want to buy and put your order in. Yes your accounts show weird marks for a couple days but you get your price and they get their money.
You are correct crazy times.

I have fidelity for that account, Jacob. I might have to ask them about that because it's not huge sums of money I'm talking about. Just a few hundred dollars as well. Thanks