It appears that trying to "game" oil -- by buying the "dips" -- is the best showing of what trying to catch a falling knife looks like. The oil patch is just awash in losses and hemorrhaging. Yesterday Conoco Phillips (COP) cut it's dividend - the first time in 25 YEARS.... which, of course, will cut it's share price. OUCH. This is similar to Kinder Morgan (KMI) which cut it's dividend...

It's just way too early in this MESS to try to figure it all out. Best to just hold if you already have the losses... and WAIT until the oil price gets back to whatever "normal" is. As long as the Saudi's want to continue to kill the market - you don't want to stand in the way of that.

Thanx Greg. It makes it more clear (for a cloudy brain)... Between Bryan's and yours i've got a basic understanding of something thats not basic. Cheers.

U going to t-hill in Feb or May? Hows the house coming along?

I'll be there running with NorCal Shelby end of April.

Greg, if it wasn't for you saying "the stock will drop after buying" I would be crying right now.

All I keep thinking is "It can't always be like this". Being a NOOB I am just going back and forth between anxiety and complacency. I am certainly getting a crash course in just about every aspect of the market with the volatility so far this year.


I noticed that The existing CFO of ETE had resigned. The CFO of ETP got moved to CFO of ETE and both of their (and related partners) stocks just tanked. I hadn't bought any yet but I had been watching it.

http://247wallst.com/energy-business...tock-plummets/

I know many of you are also AT&T holders. I found this article a little unsettling. I'll be watching this one closely.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...mpaign=article

-J

Absolutely guaranteed!!!!


And worse.... it will go up 5 minutes after you sell.








This is a market that is looking for ANY reason to hit the sell button. These happen all the time - usually with ferocity... and they can be vicious. I don't care how long you're in the market - you'll never get used to them. The only thing that will ever help you make sense of it all - is when you don't sell (thereby NOT locking in losses) and the stocks rebound, and you're not only made "whole" you get a gain too.

I had a post earlier that stated that I didn't think sinking oil prices were good for everyone = as the talking heads were all saying the consumer was going to really benefit and spend the excess cash etc. I knew that was BS - because I will guarantee you that I spend more every two months than most people make a year - and the price of gasoline is hardly a big deal. What is a big deal is the billions of losses that INVESTORS have seen - and the companies and towns etc that all depend on this industry.

Here's the thing that I've seen many many times over the years - just as you didn't see any of this coming - you won't be ready for the snap back either... because everyone gets so certain that the market rising is just a sucker hole - so you wait and wait and wait for certainty - and by then - the market has run 20%.... LOL

So I went to Chipotle tonight to get a burrito, same one I almost always go to on Monday night, same time, and there's a line and several people inside eating. There hasn't been either of those in there for weeks, and then they gave me my food for free. The CEO had a tele-conference with ALL the employees today, all the stores were closed until around 3 PM. Hmm, coincidence? I doubt it, I"m betting they're going to bring this company back.

Just a reminder for all you investors out there..... As the share price falls - the dividend percentage paid rises.

Don't overlook the opportunity to get higher returns when this stuff all goes on sale.

This is a market that is throwing everything to the wolves. But never forget what a market is. For every seller running with their tail between their legs - there's someone on the other side of that trade putting up real cash to buy. Those 'sold' shares are not just sitting on a shelf somewhere waiting for someone to walk by. They only change hands when someone buys.

Stocks like Exxon Mobile (XOM) are now paying 3.69%... and there's many out there paying 10% just due to the share price decline. Stocks like Facebook (FB) are on sale... Apple (AAPL) is off 21%... their sales are tremendous and that price has them paying a 2.2% dividend yield.

I'm not saying you rush in and spend every nickel you have.... I'm saying you should have your radar up and you should be picking away - either averaging down a little here and there - or picking up solid top notch companies at "reasonable" prices. In other words - if you where buying Apple at $130... why would you be afraid to buy some more at $94? I'll tell you why - because like everyone else - you only want to buy HIGH. Get your heads on right and start to look at the market as being opportunistic. Take your best shots when they're dealt. You'd love it if FAST put their EFI unit on sale 30 or 40% off... You wouldn't be afraid to buy then would you. 'Nuff said.

I heard a great quote last week. "I make all my money when the market and people are most pessimistic."

People "HEAR" buy low, sell high... but they really don't understand it.

For example BP = 7.88%, assuming they do not cut the dividend! That is the risk, eh. Their stock took a beat down after the Gulf oil spill, but they have done good since then.

Read this outlook regarding their dividend.

http://bidnessetcnews.tumblr.com/pos...idend-imminent

The question is, how much of this is factored into the current price?

Thanks always for the help and insight from our group here. I ready nearly daily, even if I don't comment.

Watching this market, wondering where I put a little bit of sidelined cash to work. :)

Its hard to recommend specific stocks to individuals because everybodies finances and stomach are different. There have been great stocks talked about in the thread and even more not talked about. I picked up some AIZ yesterday based on several things.
They missed what analysists thought they would do and had their biggesst drop in 5 years 12%. It pays a dividend. It has a good chart other then this year which is from what i can tell is across the board. I had a cell phone claim and they were easy to deal with. They have all the major cell phone companies insurance. Fortune 500 company. Plus I've been a customer for years with the hopes of never using it. They have good debt levels and billions in assests and many services which people feel and are told they should have but hope they never use. Then after all that it still could be a bust lol. From what ive taken in following along is pick something you understand and pays a dividend and hang on. Good luck deciding!

Oh yes. We don't really do stock recommendations in this thread. I've been a part of it for a few years now. ;)

I was more generally speaking. sorry for the confusion!

It is just too hard to recommend stocks or frankly - any investment. Everyone is so different. And none of us gets it right all the time - or even half the time. I've said before, many times, the worst thing a guy can do is to buy an investment he doesn't really understand. He just buys it because someone else said to. First time it goes to **** - he's a seller and a loser... A guy has to really believe in the company - so that when the market goes like it is now - he has the fortitude to hold or buy more... or UNDERSTAND WHY he's selling. Sometimes we just invest in stuff that was a bad bet.

These markets where EVERYTHING is going south -- these are the markets that if you have the patience - and the guts - you can make money. They're just not as instantly rewarding as buying in an up market and having the shares go green and stay there.

I got a check today - $24+K which is the 6 month "dividend" payment on an apartment investment I'd made 3 or so years ago - when apartments weren't a very hot investment. Today the value of my investment has doubled... and I get a check in the mail. I deposit it, and say "thanks"! LOL Now, I wished I'd have put twice the amount in!

That's a head space that takes "time" in the market to get to.

Best statement I've heard on TV (CNBC) EVER....



Dogs chase cars.... and people chase stocks.


In other words - the behavior of only buying stocks when they're rising.

So... Hope everyone has been enjoying the past few days. :hello: :trophy-1302:

I have 4 names that have been absolutely hammered..... APU - KMI - ETP - BXMT. Combined these 4 were in the red $1.4M a few days ago. Yesterday they were "only" down $900,000. Think about that "swing" in just 4 short days. HUGE.

They also (regardless of them being in a big deep hole) provide $160,000 in annual income. If I don't sell them - then I don't have a "loss". And in a different environment - they can, and most likely will - continue to recover OVER TIME. And in the meantime - they continue to provide income.

Times like we're in now - are why I continue to invest in DIVIDEND paying stocks.

Warren Buffett
 

In the recent market environment, Buffett has aggressively been adding to stakes in key sectors of the economy. Energy is one of those. One of Buffett’s more famous proverbs is to “be greedy when others are fearful.” He did just that at the depths of the financial crisis, buying bank stocks. And recently he’s been taking advantage of the beaten down energy sector to load up on premium stocks at distressed valuations. Another great observation from Buffett, that should give everyone perspective when stocks are in periods of decline and people are hand wringing about a variety of risks, he says: “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”



The key is -- WHICH stock. Warren does his research... he's not just buying anything and everything.

More from Warren Buffett
 

Don’t be short on cash when you need it most: "We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers… We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity." (2010)




Don’t wager against the U.S. and its economic potential: “Who has ever benefited during the past 238 years by betting against America? If you compare our country’s present condition to that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder… We will regularly grumble about our government. But, most assuredly, America’s best days lie ahead.” (2015)

There's not much more to cover in this thread that hasn't already been discussed add-infinitum.... but just to use a SHORT SALE issue that I just heard them discussing on CNBC

SEADRILL (SDRL)


The shorts were HEAVY in this name ---- and just when they thought they'd killed it - the Billionaire that controls a lot of the company - announced that he'd raised half a billion in cash by selling his other assets in order to prepare for a big deal involving SDRL.... BAM!! Up 109% in the last FIVE DAYS... UP 60% just today!


That my friends - is how you get KILLED.

Yep! I won't ever short anything, lol.

It's been fun watching oil stocks bounce all over. I've got two names that have jumped 50 and 70% recently. Wish I could say I'm rolling in the dough. All they did was go from $1 to $1.70 :D Still, a gains a gain.

Short Squeeze!....................not Fun!

It's a HUGE gain -- and just think if you had 50 or 100 grand in them!! Then it really isn't small potatoes at all!!!


And yes -- Investing - in anything - should be all about the PERCENTAGE of gain. 5% is 5% and 70% is -- 70% !! Regardless if it's measured in pennies or 1,000 dollar bills.

Luckily SDRL doesn't pay a hefty dividend. If it did and those shorts held shares on the ex-date then they would also have to pay those dividends to whoever they sold the shares to.

I sure hope many of you were buying some shares of your favorite picks a few weeks ago. Even better is if you have your dividends automatically reinvested. Then it takes your fear and loathing (of buying stocks when they're down) out of the equation.

Once again - if you've been paying ANY attention to "the market" - these last few weeks have been a great test of your resolve. I hope you've all made personal "note" of how you felt about seeing your gains erased - and the green turn to red. Buying when everything is all green is so easy. Buying when it's red or putting more money to work in things you show a loss in... that's hard. It's also the way you'll make the most money. STAYING in the game is how you win.

Seems to me that there's a decided lack of interest in "investing 102" since the market turned a bit south for a few months... I seem to be the only one posting - and then not getting much - if any - responses.

Funny though - that the lessons discussed over the time this thread started, have played out. The teachings pro-offered here - "buy when the market is down" - Buy best of the best - don't gamble - buy dividend payers.... should have helped everyone weather the downturn - and hopefully helped you all STAY in the market when the sun turned to darkness.

Just look at AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) -- up HUGE and here they are thought of as boring blue haired old lady stocks. Ditto Philip Morris (PM) and Altria (MO)... I'm not going to bother to post all the stats. If you're interested enough, it's easy enough to look at them. Again - I'm not recommending these - I'm just using them a prime examples of why being in certain types of stocks pays off big time vs being in the high beta names that everyone THINKS are the places to be.

I've just been sitting back and smiling Greg...nothing really to talk about. :)

BTW, my account balances hit an all time high Monday and I haven't added funds to them in many years. And I'm still only about 50% invested. I know I know, I should have bought some more while they were on sale...but I'm sleeping well at night and did all the way through this last dip.

I hope you guys continue to post as this forum has been a great place to learn.

I'm still buying every single month with no concern about market changes.:)

Thanks again for all the efforts that have been, and I am sure will continue to be put into this awesome thread. Some of the info is on repeat, but that really helps etch the principles into a persons mind(like the common mistake of naturally wanting to sell low instead of buying more shares at a discount). I have referred this thread to at least six coworkers and family/friends, and the few that really listened to it, are being reworded(and thankful).:thumbsup:

I haven't had any available funds to purchase any new shares but everything is moving in the right direction after being in the red for some time. ATT (T) has finally hit its stride after sitting idle to +16%, KMI is now only -40% after being as low as -55% and everything else is slowly chugging along. On another note, I watched The Big Short the other night. Does that count as doing some investing research lol.

What is just my luck is 2or 3 months ago I had to sell this portion my mom had left for my sister and I ten years ago. I wanted to sell the stock and move it over to one account that was not thru the mail and not completely separate of my schwab account. Well that of course took like 45 or more days to get handled. And of course it gains nearly 20% while I had to go thru all the channels. HAHA figures.

But my Racecar money has done well. Thanks Greg.

I'm roughly 400 pages through this thread, lol. It has inspired me to take control and have a better understanding of my own finances. I had started a Roth IRA a few years back, but the broker I was with only offered mutual funds, so the performance was lackluster to say the least. The paperwork is being processed right now to transfer that Roth over to Schwab, so I can at least control what I'm invested in.

Also, I was browsing google finance and found this article. http://www.seattletimes.com/business...ch-10-percent/
Not trying to say buy or don't buy, but it's a good example to think about, is their stock going on sale, or is this a fundamental change?

Greg,

I want to thank you for your effort in this thread. Because of you, and your advice, this month we will have paid off all of our credit cards, approx. $15,000 in about 2 years, and started saving more money per month. On top of our retirement account getting better. It has been tuff at times, and no car parts until we can pay cash for them, but we are on our way. Thank you again.

Just like Lance and Todd, I'm sitting back and watching things progress. I'm in pretty much all the stocks I care to be in at this point I think. For me, it's just a matter of continuing to add to current positions and keeping an eye on them to an extent. I only have a few gambles that I watch more earnestly than others.

I'm certainly glad other people have benefited from this as much as I have. Thank you all that have been a part of that.

I'm so happy for each of you! Investing IS NOT easy.... it takes a lot of patience, and research, and soul searching. If I've helped one person change their view of their world - then we've all won! I'm glad so many of you are still participating! I thought maybe everyone had given up at the first "dip"! Thank god you have not!!

Cheers everybody, just chilling, working, having fun, and putting some away....

I'm always reading anything anybody posts on this thead. I'm sorry i'm not more experienced to help out more...this thread is the cat's meow though...i've learned alot.....

Nice to see most of my positions in green lately (Charles Schwab), but didn't sell anything while the chips were down a few months back....

I am in the same boat as most the others, sitting on the stocks I currently have and building up a little nest egg to add onto them when the time is right.

About a year back I had invested in a little known stock out of some word of mouth around the water cooler. I did not invest a significant amount into it as this was just a gamble. Well this gamble failed and the stocks sank.

Ever since then, I have been putting more into my main portfolio. Number one focus is to have a more diversified portfolio as well as equal distribution between each of these stocks.


So far to date (about a year and a half) my Schwab account shows 8.13% in the green.

Regardless if it's business or investing, I believe systems must be in place to stay consistent and win. All my retirement stuff at Northwestern Mutual is on auto pay. I also have a set amount transferred to Scottrade every month so I'm reminded to buy stocks. I like the philosophy of giving and investing, then spending what's left.