I read with interest a couple days ago that BOEING (BA) was going to lay off 8,000 workers.... I thought (immediately) OH OH! I don't own the stock - it's generally (in my mind) a boom or bust industry - although less so now that there's really only the two players.

So just because I was reminded of it by another article - I looked up Boeing. Just as I had thought might be the case - the stock is down Year to Date - and for the "year" (last 12 months). So - as I usually do -- I stretched that chart out to 5 years -- WOW! Up 70+ %.... so down 8% this year now doesn't look so bad.... so out to 10 years I went -- WOW! Up 60+ %...... and it pays a real decent dividend....so out I went to "ALL" -- it's ONLY up 7000+%


LOL


Just using this as another example of what you "think" and what you "KNOW". Usually a big difference. No I'm not buying BA or even recommending it - what I am saying is that a little actual research goes a long way....

I'm still around too! LOL.

I check the thread every day or two for new posts, but don't have much to offer in added value on top of what we got. Unless some new players come in and start asking questions.

Overall, I'm very happy with what I've learned and put in place from here. It's done well, and I'm continuing to grow that nest egg!

I did drop in a few new names in the bucket in Feb. We'll see how they play out. Was in some industries I wasn't in yet. :)

Tesla (TSLA)
 

Interesting discussion on Tesla (TSLA) this morning on CNBC. They just had LINES to put down money on their newest offering! That was when I first bought Apple (AAPL) way back when (long since sold) because the stores had lines out the door! Always a good sign right? I mean - WTF - People standing in line to buy your stuff should spell big $$$ and profits.

However.... As the talking heads pointed out. There is a big difference between loving a product, or business.... and loving THE STOCK. This particular stock is priced at a point that values every car they build at 1 million dollars! Holy WOW!

However... there are MORE BUYERS than sellers for the shares! As this morning they're up quite nicely simply based on the lines out the door. They LOOSE money on every car they build (now). So what people are buying is the future. The future is unknown, but apparently people feel that eventually the stock will be worth more than they paid. Will that play out well? Who knows. It has to fall in the gambling category in my humble opinion. So did FaceBook - Amazon - Microsoft (back in the day) and even Apple was a big gamble when they first roared back to life from the dead.

It's so interesting. What to do? Play a little? Or just watch? Danged if I know! Some times investing is just emotional - we don't want to be the only guy that didn't make money on something.... damn the torpedos! I always find that owning something like this is so gut wrenching - because its moves are usually violent. One days news has it soaring - the next day it drops like a rock. It's 52 week range? $141 to $286 !! That is a serious rollercoaster! Can you stomach $50 drops? It's such an interesting problem isn't it? Personally? I think it's the future. What worries me as an investor is, is there some other larger company that comes out with a Tesla beater... or do they just stand by and let them build the market? Think about Amazon and Microsoft in their infancy. Amazon was virtually unimpeded in building out it retail store crusher! Now all the big box stores are so far behind they can't possibly catch up. We all buy stuff on Amazon! IBM gave up on personal computers and handed that whole technology to Microsoft... and the rest is history. So is this what Tesla is doing?

Tesla (TSLA)
 

I found this article after that last post.... Interesting information in it.


http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireS...-test-38080836

Article I found interesting on stock brokers, financial advisors, etc.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/finan...-heres-robbins

Great article.... and I have discussed this many times in the past. That people THINK their mutual fund has no fees or that some broker has their best interest in mind. Poppycock!

There's nobody that is inhaling and exhaling - that can't do quite well doing all of this on their own. The key is nothing more than a basic understanding.

Bottom line, people are looking for the path of least resistance, the easy way out. This is one of the worst times to put your head in the sand. Do you research, take responsibility, work on your debt aggressively, which will allow you to allocate more for investment.

I think debt is an under utilized topic in this thread. The more money you piss down the hole, the less you have to create your future. 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

My goal is to be debt free by Fall. Owe NOTHING on the house, land, cars, boat, credit cards, student loans, NOTHING. It's looking promising.

This creates freedom to spend time with your family and pursuing new interests, it also creates the opportunity to INVEST LIKE CRAZY. That will turn into wealth that will engender a legacy for you family and allow you to GIVE to those in need.

Americans need to learn a very important adage:


"You can not spend your way to wealth"

I tried explaining this at my last shop steward meeting when a couple knuckleheads wanted to put ANOTHER .20 in one of our pensions. I was told that most members weren't as savvy with their money as me :confused59: and that I needed to think of the group as a whole.....that's more than Poppycock! The meeting ended with me suggesting that people were either ignorant or lazy if they didn't at least look into what their money is NOT doing for them.

The bad, .20 went to the pension:lostmarbles:
The good, discussions have started about a financial course for 2nd year apprentices explaining the three pensions and other ways of investing. :thumbsup:

I don't say much in this thread but I'm reading and rereading it constantly....thank you.

I'm trying to get my employees (coworkers really) to do a Roth IRA, their companies pension, SSI, and individual savings. Cant spend more than what you make, related to that, my dad always said "its not what you make, (at work), its what you keep". I partially agree with that,but its hard to keep anything when the cost of living (bare essentials) is more than you make . Either move or get a better job or better education or work more!!!

Bottom line, dont work too much, dont work too little, but PAY ATTENTION (my #1 problem lol)

I've only made a few post in this thread due to a lack of knowledge, but I check in every few days to read anything new that's been posted.

I started investing last May before understanding the 5% rule, or about scaling in and out of positions. I opened a large (for me) position in RDS.B and a smaller position in KMI among others. Just about a month ago I was in the green for the first time thanks to the other positions. In Jan. I opened a small position in Ford, and then added to it in Feb. Other than watching and collecting dividends that's the only change to my portfolio recently.

I have shared this thread with one friend that has opened an account and started investing, and tried but failed to motivate a few others.

I sincerely appreciate the efforts of Greg and everyone else that's contributing.

The 5% "rule" has been discussed a zillion times in this thread - and like most "rules" has some flexibility to it. Pretty hard to get started with 2 or 3 positions and make the rule work. It's really more a rule when you get 20 or more thousand.


Glad you enjoy the learning and doing!

Tesla (TSLA)
 

I'm writing this in the vane of "WHAT TO THINK ABOUT" --- not a discussion on whether or not to buy or sell a particular name etc.



I'm sure you guys are all following Tesla (TSLA) - even if you don't own it - and it's relevant here because we're a car forum.

I see this morning that people have plunked down $1,000 per to simply "reserve" a car... a car that's not even in production yet -- and there were near 300,000 "reservations"! ELEVEN BILLION in future sales if all those folks take the cars. That's a big number.... and in anyones eyes - would be considered a huge success. We'll see if they can produce - and produce at a PROFIT. After all - making money is what drives any business.

So to me... what is this saying to the other manufacturers? Shouldn't they be waking up this morning and asking themselves where they are in this market? 300,000 people plunking cash down and waiting a year and a half for something they're not even sure will be produced! If I was an auto manufacturer - I'd be having a board meeting this morning and I'd be pounding the table for getting on this bandwagon! That's what worries me on TSLA.... while they're the known leader. What happens to the stock IF - big IF - someone else comes up with a winning design - or that goes further on a charge etc. That's the gamble. In the meantime - Tesla is killin' it. Are they the Apple of the auto industry?

It will never happen with the Big 5 automakers. It works for Tesla just like it did for Apple. They were the underdog and they came out with something out of the box, and tons on innovation, that the Big Guys won't do cause they are to blinded by their size.

Tesla is the only electric vehicle manufacturer of scale to actually make an electric car we would want to drive. The big automakers must be convinced that the buyers of electric cars want something ugly. How else can you possibly explain the Leaf?

Not to stray too far off topic but...I watched the Preston Tucker movie the other night and I've got to wonder if the big 3 or 5 aren't trying to backdoor Tesla. I know early on lawsuits were filed against Tesla because of the way they were selling their cars, without dealerships. Do the giant manufactures strangle Tesla with lawsuits or do they buy them out?

Tesla are everywhere here in the NW.....everywhere! I've done work in one of their buildings in downtown Seattle and it's definatly a complete buying experience. Small, full access to the cars, display model chassis's with the drive components...a different way of doing things for sure.

I agree with both these thoughts. ALL of the other hybrids and electrics are just flat ass ugly or boring to the max. The big 3 or 5 think the market is just the ultra tree hugger crowd.... and not at all about the "driver experience" - whereas TESLA continues to make cars that DRIVERS actually want to be seen in and experience.

Having said all of that - and being in complete agreement..... You MUST ask yourself how long a company can continue losing huge money every quarter - while still trying to build new models etc. Of course - a large part of their losses are because they are "investing" in new plant and equipment etc. So perhaps like AMAZON (AMZN) losing money - it's not really losses as much as it is supporting growth and expansion. I'm not that smart - and don't care to pour thru their financial statements to figure it all out!


Again - not discussing this with a you should or shouldn't own "X" -- but more - it's an interesting CASE STUDY.... of investing in "growth" or gambling on the future in hopes (because that's all you've got to hang your hat on) they grow in to the stock price.

They have a decent gross profit per model, just not producing the volume they need to outrun the spending on development and growth. They are selling their powerwall home battery systems faster than they can produce them, and they have 276,000+ pre orders for the car they are releasing next year. Now 2016 Q1 they delivered 14,820 cars. They fell short of their Q1 estimate because of parts shortages. The logistics of expanding from 5,000 cars per month to 50,000 cars per month is staggering. The $276,000,000 their customers fronted them will not do it. They need real cash and logistics experts. Someone like a big 3, or maybe a company like Boeing that is accustomed to large scale short timeline projects. The way Tesla has run the company from the beginning I have always had the impression they were fishing for a buyer.

I'm sorry, I dont "tweet". I had heard a fewdays back that Mr. Musk had tweeted "hmmm, might have to rethink production"....wtf, 300k deposits ?????

Great product imo, but can they deliver? that is the 25000 question....

Now, if somebody could come out with a light duty pick up hybrid...not sure if it would sell, but i'd be in....

not sure if i'm in to buy the stock or not, just not sure.....

Since we're all tool and car guys - I think some of you own Snap-On (SNA). It's been a little poopie for the last several months. Year to date it's down 8.58%... and it's not a huge dividend payer to begin with...

So while I was just poking around - as usual I stretched the chart out just for a look see.

Only reason I'm writing this post....


Think about where you were in 1986..... and think if you'd just have put $1,000 in to Snap-On stock..... that was 30 years ago. What would you have today had you never put another dime into this??



You'd have a 916% GAIN..... Yep.... your math is right... you'd have damn near a million bucks to retire on.

I was a working kid in college in 1986, a thousand dollars to me back then would have felt like a million dollars!!

Great example though Greg.

LOL -- RIGHT!!!


I just thought it was a great example of kind of a "ho hum" stock pick.. Which - when "charted" - was kind of an eye opener. The whole post was more about - HEY!! Think how simple something like this is - and look at the result. What made the result was, TIME.

In 1986 Microsoft had just gone public. Gwen was one of three or four people in Human Resources there. She got 750 shares of stock as an "option". At the time - the shares traded at around the $30 level - and the option price was $32.50 ---- what would those 750 shares be worth today? The "cost" of the option is $24,375.00 ---- and the growth since inception is 54,582 PERCENT.

I just did "head math" - taking the 750 shares - and doing all the SPLITS - quickly - the 750 shares grew into 288,000 shares - at todays price - your 24 grand would be worth over 15 MILLION. Just barely enough to retire on. LOL

Today I decided to check my list of stocks that I follow on Google Finance because I am interested in adding a position to one of my ("Gambling") accounts. I call it that because this is an account I use for money I would otherwise blow on BS like eating out, car parts, money I would otherwise spend without any expected return etc etc. Not that I want to lose money investing but if I were to make a bad pick (like my GoPro shares I'm hanging on to), going to zero won't hurt my retirement account and anything positive is a plus.

Back to my point. Nothing on my list really stands out to me as something I should look into for a possible purchase. They are all what I consider good or decent stocks but for whatever reason nothing has caught my eye. Without making a stock recommendation, what do some of you do to get the juices flowing again after some idle down time? Do you just watch the market to see whats moving? Listen to the talking heads to hear what they are saying?

My gamble stocks are so minor I don't even think they qualify as gambles. With that said, Zoes Kitchen(ZOES), Valspar(VAL), Mid Con Energy(MCEP), and California Resources(CRC) are what I consider my gamble stocks.

CRC was "given" to me because I owned OXY who split them off. I know very little about the stock. I consider it a gamble because it's oil related and the only reason I added to my position was because it was about $1.40 per share. I said what's another $100. Seriously, that was it, lol. It's oil related so maybe it will climb in a few years.

MCEP when I bought into it was doing well, inexpensive, and paid a great dividend ~10%. So I said sure why not. I was actually doing work for them while at Halliburton so I knew their business model and thought it was a decent way to turn a small profit for them. Then the oil market crashed. So, this time around, I can only add once a year since it's in my Roth, it was a little over $1 per share and I said, what's another $100? again. I see a pattern developing. I've lost 90% on this pick already. It may recover or not. I figured maybe this $100 will hep minimize my losses. It certainly won't hurt any more.

VAL. I simply was looking to diversify when I pulled them up. Both them and PPG have very strong charts, pay a dividend, and have broad coverage in different markets. I looked to them to be a steady performer. I also just wanted to sit back and let it go. Maybe I'd add to it or not. I didn't see the Sherwin Williams buy out coming at all. That caused it to jump big time. Since it was a gamble and hadn't really done anything to show me it was going to grow, I only made my small initial purchase. Kind of wish I knew the Sherwin buyout was coming ahead of time.

ZOES. Good food and people seem to pack the place out at lunch time. Thought I might be able to get in early on a future winner. I think the fast casual segment is going to continue to grow and be attractive to consumers. I spent $42 on a "fancy" meal last weekend that was only part of a NY strip steak and I left hungry. %^&$ that bs! It wasn't $40 tasty. I'm not the only person who's starting to seriously question these food places that don't offer food that matches the sticker price. It's food damn it. It for sustenance. If I wanted an experience, I'd eat street food in a foreign country or go to a dinner theater. Make it taste good or stop wasting my time. Sorry. Rant over. I'm not losing so far but I haven't added anything to it either.

That's about it. Nothing special honestly. I'm not much of a gambler. I'm ok with ho hum in this department really.

Oh, I forgot to mention, once/if CRC and MCEP recover, I'll most likely dump them in order to move onto something more stable. We'll see what happens between now and then but that's the plan as of now.

VAL I'm not sure what to do with assuming the Sherwin Williams deal doesn't fall through. Sherwin has a good chart and good numbers. I may just let it ride like I was planning to do with VAL. I'm fairly certain the worst that will happen with this pick is it doesn't go anywhere or do more than collect the small dividend. I have no intention of adding to this position as of now.

ZOES we'll see. I may just get tired of owning it and move on. Then again, I remember people that got tired of Chipotle not going anywhere and sold for a loss when it was still around $50 a share. Unless, it starts showing signs of steady increase, I have no intentions of adding to my position.

Not to scare you but, The company I work for is the largest buyer of Sherwin Williams automotive paint in the PNW. We just announced the plant is closing and moving to GA. They won't be painting in GA. Thats millions of dollars a year they just lost.
They might not feel it, but i'd thought I put out this warning since you mentioned it.

So that means you're out of a job now? Or are you moving to GA? It's nice down here. I'm biased.

Yes I will be unemployed on May 27th. They made me a good offer. I had to decline at this time. My brother lives in Decatur. I've visited a few times, and been to corporate a few times.

LOL --- Their CEO made $12,488,000 in compensation last year.... and they just bought Valspar for 11.5 BILLION.... They can afford to loose an account here and there.

Sorry to hear that. I hope you are able to get back on your feet quickly.

Philip Morris (PM)
 

Once again - I'm going to use just one name to make an example of how the market can work for you...

When this thread started (12/2011) Philip Morris (PM) was paying a dividend of 77 cents per share and their share price was around $75.... while we played and talked and learned -- this unexciting boring "sin stock" kept working and is now paying $1.02 per share and is trading at $100.

If you bought at $75 -- your percentage being collected on it is now 5.44% and you've had a very nice long term capital gain.

I can remember - at the time - discussions about the prices being too high or overvalued.... LOL


My guess is -- not many around here have gotten a 30% pay raise in the same timeframe.

Keep on preaching the word Greg... :)

Just noticed that my XOM is almost back to the green side vs cost basis (including dividends reinvested). If I look at just dollars invested and value now, I'm in the green again.

Now I just need KMI and ETP to follow suit.

Note I colored those two in RED!!! LOL


Trust me on the KMI and ETP - Those two are just PAINFUL!!

I own 25,000 shares of KMI @ $36.34 or in other words a paper LOSS of $446,000 and a cut in dividend income from over $60K per year to $12,500

I own 15,000 shares of ETP @ $56.67 for a nice paper loss of $344,000 but at least for now it's still paying the dividend ($63,300 per year).

Yeah, it's nice seeing the oil stocks starting to recover or at least not continue to drop. I hope this trend continues. I'd like to be green in those again.

I didnt go the PM route back then... but went the MO route. Purchased at $30. it's since doubled, and my Yield on Cost is 6.3% (i made an additional purchase in the middle in there at $40/share). One of my best yet. :D :D :D Based on my calculations, my Total Return is 123%. Yay! :G-Dub:

MSFT looks good after a 7% drop.:superhack:

So here's where there may be some "interest".... Apple (AAPL) posted very disappointing earnings after the close of the market today.... Nasty earnings really - with almost every segment of their business down and down pretty hard.... 12 and 15%

What's my point? We always need to be aware of FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES....What those look like are hugely variable! Some fundamental changes are good! Look at McDonalds (MCD) when they added a new CEO - who then promptly changed the menu (adding breakfast all day) and BAM! The stock took off big time.

Is the disappointing Apple sales number (top line) a fundamental change in the market place? What does it say? Does it say the consumer is weak? Or has the Apple product hit it's peak? Has something else come out that's better? If so, I'm not aware of it. But here's something that might be contributing...... I used to get a new phone whenever my "2 years" was up - because it was a cheap upgrade by just extending my phone contract. NOW!?!?! They want me to pay full price for the new toy.... to which I say - Heck no! My current phone is just fine.

So is that having an affect on sales all across the board? No new phone - no reason to go into the store - therefore no "extra" sales because of a lack of interest/traffic??

I don't know - but it's certainly interesting! Is there a fundamental change in the wind --- or are we just seeing a weak consumer or both??

I'm starting to see many similarities locally that I saw just over a decade ago. While I don't see the indicators there for the same type of meltdown, I do know that things cycle and I think Spring is over and we are well into Summer, maybe even approaching Fall in the cycle.

Housing is up over 40% in less than 4 years
People are spending, spending, spending on non essentials.
The construction industry is BOOMING driving construction costs up substantially. I met with a local architect that is a real player. He said it's curtailing the commercial segment.
Low to no down payment programs are back for housing
Sloppy and new professionals are coming back into my industry
A recent Inman poll showed a majority of Americans are moderately optimistic to optimistic about the real estate market. That's a stark contrast from a short time ago.
I have a listing appointment tomorrow where the value is ABOVE the price they paid in 2005!

We are coming up on 5 years into our housing recovery. The median price of a home has stayed stagnant for 9 months with a shortage of inventory. The stock market is up there...look at its growth in the same period.

I do feel the foundation is much stronger this time around. I just think the next cycle is coming on in 1-3 years. I want to be cash heavy and debt free this time around.

What's your local economy or industry feel like?

If you're building a NEW house here - you might have to just get in line. Prices are way up - labor is not only tight - it's short. This is a SECOND or third home market and the projects being done are multimillion dollars (one house is 12,000 square feet). BUT....

If you have an existing CONDO (many here were built in the '70's) then the market is soft and prices have NOT gone up and in many cases have gone down. My realtor publishes a newsletter every Friday showing all the statistics and most are down or negative from a year ago comps. This is contradictory when compared to the NEW Town homes being built by the Sun Valley Corp and the foot of our street... they're larger than the older Condos - have single car garages - and are selling like they're giving them away (mind you - there are only 36 units). They're 1.3MM and up. So there seems to be a group of people that can afford "better" that are buying yet the "normal" second home market is suffering. Is this because of the financial strength of the buyer? The 1.7 guy can get (or doesn't need) financing? Where the $750K guy is fighting trying to get a mortgage? IDK.


http://www.whitecloudsresidences.com/townhomes.html


Note how many have the "Sold" red dot on them! And remember that these are SECOND or VACATION homes! So the money is being spent - just not on the middle of the market.

The local "Spring homes tour" is going on right now and they have made note that there are more new homes included in the tour now than since 2007. I see more construction rigs on the highway and at QuickTrip every morning than I have in years. My friends that still dabble in new home construction (mostly starter homes done on a part time basis) are selling everything they build before they are finished.

I guess that all points toward a healthy real estate market at least in these parts anyway.

The no down payment loan option being available again freaks me out just a bit though, will we never learn?