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Whoa, Tonto. I didn't say you didn't. I just didn't think it was a great idea to take big risks at your stage.
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Oh -- I think people are interested in it.... but there's a zillion websites out there pumping and dumping and hyping all their tricks to make millions..... |
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The problem is that regardless of the strategy the market makes bigger moves off hype and emotion than it does off reality. I did not understand it well enough to want to take the risks. I look at it like legalized gambling. The difference is that in gambling you can directly calculate the odds and know the risks. |
There are LOTS of people and lots of banks and insurance companies etc that have TRADING DESKS.... And there is lots of money to be made if you are a successful trader. But like guy seeking gold and diamonds.... some are successful and most are not.
I made millions trading. I paid HUGE taxes (ordinary income tax rates of 40% or so) and I lost millions trading. Overall I was successful at it. But was "I" successful or was it just the market period I was trading in? I think it was the market that made me look good. It was easy. I've made WAY MORE investing than I did trading. It just doesn't seem like it. |
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I'm sorry I haven't added much here lately. As many of you know already - I'm dealing with some nasty health issues... and that's taking my energy right now.
Having said that.... I just had a great call with a good friend regarding his investments. He's done really well and seems to have a decent (not total) grasp of the challenges. But it's what he said to me that prodded this post.... to wit: "I've been buying some stuff that's really out of favor (or something along these lines) and it's really paying off right now!". DOH!! Anyone ever hear of buying low and selling high? LOL With that in mind - I've had my ass handed to me in some big oil related stuff - KMI - ETP are the two biggest losers.... and KMI hurt because of the dividend cut! I owned 25,000 shares of it down about 50%..... so I just bought 5,000 more shares.... yeah.... that's right... I bought MORE of it. I also just added some Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) because it is another HUGE loser.... and cut it's dividend to ZERO... it's also down at $12... and for $100K I'll take that flier. |
Thanks to you and this thread my kids will have a nice chunk to deal with when they are of age. Great dividend reinvestment strategy and diverse portfolio is the key!! :captain1: Thanks Greg!
One thing I have learned is don't worry about the ups and downs. With dividend reinvestment if you are down you just get more bang for the buck and if you are up, you are up. Win Win if you ask me. |
I've been long silent as well here. But I still stop in each morning to check for any new comments.
Greg, hope your health issues are quick to recover. Let us know if there is anything we can do to help. Vince, I agree with that last sentence. Man I love seeing those dividends keep on working for me. Now, I've got some things to ponder. We close sale of our house Tuesday, and start our purchase for our new house. We're downsizing for now, and will be able to drop up to 40% of the purchase price on the new house. Thanks to the gains from the old. But i think we're gonna do 20% and then use some of that cash to do some remodels and even increase the investments some. Cross our fingers it all goes well! |
Good for you, Albert and Vince. Glad to hear the success stories.
Stay strong, Greg. My oil stocks are starting to pay off with the rebound. I'm still deeply red with OXY and KMI. However, my purchases from earlier this year are doing great. So I'm steadily marching back to green. I had an OXY spin off called CRC that split 10:1 earlier this year which was very nice to see as well since it was sort of given to me. My steady eddies are doing what I bought them to do. In short, patience is working well for me. Just wish I had bought more of everything when it was down, lol. Hindsight's always 20/20. |
Right now I would be careful with new positions in stocks other than drip into positions, at the current valuation of this market I personally am profit taking some of the bigger winners and will watch for a pullback that appears to be coming in the near future just based on past experience...
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Donnie..... We've discussed "trying to time" the market for a couple years here now in this thread. A couple of things come to mind when I read statements such as yours. #1 - Lets examine the origin of statements such as "wait for a pullback". Doing this is smart if a guy is trading 10's of 1000's of dollars - and is on top of his game daily or weekly etc. But what does this say to a guy that is going to save up $1,000 and buy 30 shares of GM. If the shares "pull back" $1.50 he'd save $45.... but he might forget the cash is sitting there and loose out on the next move up. #2 - This throws out every thought process which says you're an "INVESTOR" and believe in the long term viability of the market(s) - because that "mentality" is training someone to try to catch a bargain - vs - just invest for the long haul and forget about trying to bend over to pick up pennies. Now --- I'm not slamming your statement. Nor am I slamming what you are feeling as stated etc. I'm just trying to put in to perspective - statements such as this. For ME personally -- when I'm buying $100 - $500 or 1MM in a name.... yeah - I try to pick off the buys on down days - but that's just a game really isn't it. Because I'm really not after trying to make .50 a share..... I'm trying to make 100% over the next FIVE years... That's where my focus is. |
Greg, I am an investor, but I want good value for a stock I am purchasing or holding and when that stock becomes overvalued, it is ridiculous to say that taking some profits off the table to wait for a pullback is a bad idea. I also have a list of stocks I would like to own and prices I would pay for the given stock, only when appropriate valuation is there will I buy them.
What you seem to be preaching here is buy whenever you have the money, that is a good way to fall into the usual main street investor trap of buying too high. If that's what people want to do, then more power to them, but just like looking for the best deal on car parts, or whatever, I am going to do the same when buying stocks. |
You're both correct. There's a balance that must be achieved in my opinion. Is it something that can be or should be discussed in Investing 102? I don't know. I think not as it can get very deep quickly but at the same time it could be. I think it should definitely be something think about a little.
What I believe Greg was alluding to in terms of waiting can be illustrated with JNJ. I've been reading people say it's overvalued and overpriced all year and to wait for a pull back. Maybe they will be right. They've been very wrong all year. So what do you do as a long term investor? Wait for a day that never comes? Temper your pull back/entry level expectations? Get in now on a good stock and not worry about short term dips and bubbles? Balance. It's going to be different for everyone. |
I tried to do the old "what I think a stock should be valued at" trick for years, sometimes I got pretty lucky and did very well, other times I had my arse handed to me.
What I discovered is there are way too many other forces out there affecting the value of said stock, some of which made no sense whatsoever. I 100% prefer this dividend stock investing program we have going on here. I don't worry about my stock holdings when they are 30% down in in asset value and I don't worry about them when they are 30% up in value either. The not worrying part is priceless to me. |
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I have a half dozen or so stocks that I have researched that I fundamentally like that I would not mind owning in addition to my current holdings. I have money that goes into the retirement account with each paycheck. Once the cash has built up to a comfortable level I look at the dividend payout % and 52 week high / low of the stocks on my list. I also look at my current holdings and consider if I want to increase any of them. I don't like to have any individual carry too high a percentage of the whole. I weigh the price / dividend rate, and etcetera then choose the one that I like the best at that moment and then buy. I rarely sell anything anymore. And I don't buy anything that pays less than 3% dividend. Like I said, this is my approach, and it has worked pretty well for me. My purchasing strategy is similar to the "Dogs of the Dow" method. The "Dogs" method only considers DOW and you simply pick the highest dividend rate stocks. Differences include that I rarely rebalance or sell, I do not limit myself to the DOW stocks, and I try not to build too much of the same sector stocks. For example, I only own one oil stock. |
Sounds reasonable to me, Michael. If you're ok with it and are producing the results you like, then keep at it. Only thing I would recommend is consider total returns and not just dividend payout as part of your research. Costco has been working well for me and Halliburton has too. They both are well below 3% dividend.
Good luck! |
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VERY CRITICAL --- TOTAL RETURN.... it IS the measure of money making. |
Federal Rate decision
No rate hike just announced this is great for the div stocks.
Utlilities and Telecom been in favor ever since Brexit trend could continue into next year given the political climate world wide. Until they start raising interest rate. |
Havent posted in a while, but I wanted to thank all the posters on here.
My Rollover IRA has been kicking butt in the past year. Im up 22% since rolling over (taking into account the dividends and reinvesting into my positions). Right now I am accumulating dividends to make more significant buys and take less of a "hit" on the commission. BUT how much cash on hand is too much? Would it be smart to put that free cash into a low fee mutual fund so its not just sitting there earning 0.00000001% (exaggerating) interest? |
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what I was saying is I like to make as large of a purchase/sale for each transaction so I only pay the $8 fee as little as possible. |
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Read the link below... https://401k.fidelity.com/static/dcl...t_Domestic.pdf |
Rolling over a 401k
I am changing jobs in September, and I am using this as an opportunity to step up my skills with my investing. I have been investing in a few relatively small posotions over the last few years with a Schwab brokerage account, but nothing near the money that is in my 401k that I will be moving into my rollover account. For simplicity's sake, lets round out numbers and say that I have $10k in my Schwab account right now, and will be moving $100k into a rollover.
My new job will have a 403b with a 3% match, and I will utilize that match. I filed for taxes for the first time since being married and found out that I can now utilize a roth rather than being over the income limit. I will max that out yearly. I'm 32, and would like to retire around 55 In my Schwab account, I currently have postions in: MO - biggest position PEP XOM F T MCD EXR - very small position So I have several questions about the best way to utilize the 401k money: 1. At this point should I be looking into bonds at all or is that something that should wait until I am closer to retirement and looking for stability rather than growth? 2. Should I be concerned with scaling into positions with this, or should I buy new/expand current positions with the majority of the money? 3. If I scale in, what strategy do you guys use in parking the money until you put it into a more permanent position? 4. After the Roth and 3% match for the 403b, I will have roughly $1000/month that I am designating to retirement. Should I max out the 403b or put that money into my brokerage account. I'm assuming the 403b will be mostly mutual funds, and I would have more control with the brokerage account. Edit: I just realized that this was my first post here. I have been lurking too long! |
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AWESOME Thanks guys, I did not know this was a no-cost option in my IRA. For some reason I had the idea in my head that if I did this they would charge me the purchase fee |
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Kenny - WELCOME! I'm on a road trip and posting is difficult and I want to be able to give thought to a response... so give me a few days to whip something up. In the meantime - hopefully others will see your post. |
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1) Personally I think you're too young and 23 yrs out at least is too long to even worry about bonds in my opinion. T pays more than most bonds just in it's dividend. 2) See answer 1 but I would favor strong companies you are comfortable with that have taken a dip based more on overall market conditions than their own individual fundamentals. Scaling in, or "dollar cost averaging" is never a bad idea. Also, read this article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how...rly-2016-01-25 3) Personally, I've learned to always have some cash on hand for when we have these sudden dips that really aren't based on much of anything concrete. I don't use it but HYG is a popular bond ETF for storing cash, it's not the most conservative though nor without risk. On the conservative side, T-Bills may or may not do much for you, depending on how much cash you are parking, to even be worth the trouble, but they are safe. 4) Max out any free money company match 1st, then max out Roth contributions, then go back to 403b and max that out (like most plans, it probably doesn't have very many or very good choices). BTW, changing jobs is a perfect opportunity to swap out of a limited set of poor choices in a 401k and into a Rollover IRA with unlimited choices without paying a penalty. That was a great move and most people don't even know they can do this. My company was sold and I didn't change jobs but it allowed me to do this too! You're just fine tuning at this point so don't lose any sleep, you're doing it right! Good luck! |
lurker
I am a long time lurker on this thread, and I just wanted to take the time to say thank you to all who have posted. It is funny how some of the most solid investing advice I have seen has been on a "car forum". LOL Another thing that's funny is how you go from "gambling" to "investing" and you feel so much more secure.
You know I wish I knew at 20 what I know now.......and I have always saved money, just sometimes made bad investment decisions (some good too!) Any how, I hope everyone who reads this thread gets out of it what I have! Thanks again and keep up the good work! Brad |
Welcome Kenny. Erik pretty said everything I would have. You're smart to be doing this now. Keep up the good work. The only thing I would recommend is to further diversify. If you can continue to purchase more shares of what you own and diversify at the same time, great! If not, I'd lean towards diversifying as a priority over expanding current selections. Keep your eyes on your current selections though for any dips. Jumping in during dips isn't necessary but it's great when you can.
Glad you're getting a lot out of this thread, Brad. Good luck to you. |
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Another thing to remember is you should be reading earnings reports, listening to conference calls, etc when they come out, gets to be too much if you have too many names. While it's a generally considered good idea I don't typically scale in personally. If I like something and it's a bit down I'll buy some. With things at all time highs right now I'm not sure this is the time to buy but what do I know, could go much higher from here or crash tomorrow. I do think it's a very good sign we are finally above the highs of 1999-2000 at a much lower P/E. I don't know enough about bonds to really comment. All I can say is Money magazine has something called the Money 50. Their 50 best stock and bond funds/ETFs. Here are a few from their bond list that I recognize and you can research: DODIX FTBFX VFSTX VWITX (tax exempt) |
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YOU just made MY day buddy!! Stick to it -- good market and bad -- buy more in bad market conditions -- then hang on..... You'll live to appreciate your efforts! |
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Brad! So easy a five year old can do it! In fact -- we should all START by putting money away for our five year olds! College is coming! So happy you've gotten some nuggets you can use to help yourself to a better life! Yippppppeeeeeeeeeee |
I have a pretty significant chunk of my portfolio in Lowes, and today they missed so they are down ~$5
I have a reasonable chunk of cash sitting (from being an idiot and not using the dividends reinvestment option), but I am really nervous about putting money into them on a dip, given that it has kicked me down hard when I did this the past couple years with COP and STX Any thoughts? |
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The very best time to buy is when the market is DOWN not UP. Having said that --- even when you have a bucket of money --- it's hard to follow this simple advice. I get it. Whenever you get nervous..... GO TO THE CHARTS!!! Stretch 'em out ---- DO YOU NOT SEE THAT THEY'RE LOWER ON THE LEFT SIDE AND HIGHER ON THE RIGHT?? Now -- be a smart guy and pull up a comparo chart of Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).... Personally I've always liked HD better. Lowe's - to me - is too "Chinese imports for the housewife" kind of a store. How many years do you have before you actually retire --- and then --- wait for it --- how many years do you plan to live after retirement?? My guess is - no matter how many dips the market takes - it'll be higher in the long run. |
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I bought lowes at the time because it was worth half of what HD was, and it has really paid off. I have shopped at both, and I understand exactly what you say about contractor style of Home Depot vs housewife faux-renovation style of Lowes, BUT both are always packed everytime I go into one, PLUS the Lowes is easier to get to for me, haha Im gonna take a look at the comparison, last time I looked they were pretty neck and neck for the past few years. |
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I agree they are so similar that they're hard to differentiate.... like Verizon and AT&T... just close your eyes and toss a dart. LOL And like I've always said ---- buy the one YOU like! And where YOU shop! That way you'll see any changes with your own eyes. |
Or, do like I did when I couldn't decide which industry giant to choose from and buy both. That's why I own both T and VZ. They both are doing well for me. I'm probably going to buy Nike and UnderArmor soon, too, because yet again, I can't decide which one to choose.
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