Thats not a bad idea.

speaking of Nike and Underarmor, I am really really REALLY kicking myself for not investing in Adidas at the end of 2014.

it was in the mid 30s and is now sitting at mid 70s

I ended up buying KO instead...

oh well, I keep telling myself its long term, Im not trading WOOSAH

McDonalds
 

It will be interesting to have you all be "on board" here long enough -- that you will be witnessing "MATERIAL CHANGE" to McDonalds (MCD) with yet another U.S. CEO change at year end.


MCD was horrible -- they did a corporate CEO change and BAM! The stock, sales, etc went up and all was good...

The U.S. CEO is retiring and we'll have to see what happens on his watch.

My take?? I never like to stand in a tunnel when I see a headlight... I prefer to step aside - watch whatever - and then re-asses. Particularly if I have a nice gain in the name. Nobody ever goes broke taking a profit..... is my theory there. It's had a nice run.... so does the new guy make it run even more? Who knows? And that's why I prefer to stand aside.

Interesting, when you take profits its noble, to step aside and wait to see what happens, but when I propose essentially the same thing you are stating here, I'm trying to time the market...please explain?

Huge difference between Timing the market and FUNDAMENTAL or MATERIAL CHANGE.

Change being the difference.

Trying to TIME the market is sitting on the sidelines - or being invested - and then just trying to wait for the price to dip a buck -- or for it to go up and buck etc....

What happens when you're trying to time the market is you'll miss a move or moves trying to be "cute" with what will amount to very small potatoes. Bending over to pick up a dime.

Now -- Let's take MCD --- back before they made a HUGE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE with the CEO (corporate) the stock was under $100 and maybe even was flirting with low $90's.... now -- it's had a sweet run UP to $131 and now it's pulling back to the low $115's. So if you've held over a year and one day - there's a 20% long term capital gains tax to be paid... but a very nice gain too!

Now -- My writings here have always been about WHAT TO THINK ABOUT --- not what to do. That's up to people to decide on their own.

Remember what I was really talking about was to beware and aware of FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in your holdings -- sometimes that is a good thing and sometimes you get eaten alive.

This is more about HEADS UP!! THINK ABOUT IT! BE AWARE!

If you have 5 or 10 shares in your IRA/401K -- then you don't do anything because this is a good long term name you shouldn't worry about TOO MUCH.... but the fast food game has been in some disarray in the last few years so it's not the buy and hold forever game it used to be. Coke has some serious competition with new style drinks - Fast food has it's challenges...

THere's nothing wrong with doing that at all.... as long as you are well diversified!

I often will hold two or more of the same type company - such as T and VZ - or JNK and HYG - or F and GM... or MO and PM.

I hadn't seen the CEO was retiring. I thought about buying some when it was down but didn't think any CEO could get them past the declining interest in unhealthy fast food, but he did. All day breakfast probably had a lot to do with it, which I can't understand at all. Chance of that happening a second time though?? Prolly not.

I came across a dated article that I felt was good food for thought read in this thread. GW if you don't approve I'll bleach it.

It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50!
Dec. 17, 2014 9:19 PM ET|1031 comments | Includes: AAPL, ADP, AFL, BAX, BDX, CAT, CL, CLX, COP, CVX, D, DE, EMR, GE, GIS, GPC, HCP, HSY, IBM, JNJ, KHC, KMB, KMI, KO, LMT, MCD, MKC, MMM, MO, MSFT, NEE, O, OHI, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SBUX, SJM, SO, SPY, T, TGT, UTX, V, VDIGX, VIG, VOO, VZ, WBA, WEC, WFC, WMT, XOM
Mike Nadel Mike NadelFollow(8,603 followers)
Long-term horizon, dividend growth investing
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Summary

The erstwhile New Nifty Fifty has a new name that is more meaningful and accurate.

A $25K, real-money, equal-weight DG50 portfolio has been established and will be tracked over time.

The plan is to reinvest all dividends, but otherwise do no buying or selling, so the overall portfolio's progress can be charted accurately.

First things first: I am no longer calling this collection of carefully selected Dividend Growth companies the "New Nifty Fifty." The more I thought about that name, the less I liked it. For one thing, I borrowed the moniker from a long-ago list that means little today. Mostly, though, the name told us little about this current group of quality income growers.

So, ladies and gentlemen, I present the Dividend Growth 50.

And along with the new name, I am introducing an exciting new project: a real portfolio with 50 real positions bought in real-time with real money.

Where It All Began

Before we get to the portfolio's particulars, let's quickly revisit the genesis of the DG50.

Back in September, I wrote an article about the original Nifty Fifty of the 1970s. Its thesis was that as flawed as the group of companies was, buy-and-hold investors would have become multi-millionaires. While dealing with the nearly 700 comments the article received, I grew intrigued by the idea of establishing a more modern version. And since I am a proponent of Dividend Growth Investing, I wanted a list with a DGI focus.

I didn't want the list to be purely my opinion, so I sought inputs from 10 respected Seeking Alpha voices: Chowder, David Crosetti, David Fish, Eli Inkrot, Eric Landis, Tim McAleenan, Miz Magic DiviDogs, Scott U, David Van Knapp and Bob Wells. Each provided his/her list of 50 companies, and once the votes were tallied, a consensus was formed.

The New Nifty Fifty debuted in an Oct. 15 article, which turned out to be the most popular piece I've written for this site. I followed with Part 2, featuring each panelist's top 10 picks. In Part 3, I revealed my own choices. The series has drawn more than 83,000 page views and 1,300 comments, and it has been the centerpiece of numerous other Seeking Alpha studies.

Debates Aplenty

Most recently, Chuck Carnevale and Minutemen used extensive back-testing in comparing the New Nifty Fifty to the Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund Inv (MUTF:VDIGX), which fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Dale Roberts repeatedly claimed to be superior. The historic performance of the "Nifties" also has been compared to that of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). There have been many comment stream discussions, some rather heated, about the merits of DGI vs. indexing and individual stocks vs. funds.

Back-testing can be useful because history often provides clues about the future. For instance, a high-quality, deep-moat company that has been raising dividends for decades is likely - not guaranteed, but likely - to continue increasing dividends while flourishing as a business.

Still, only by "forward-testing" can we make true judgments and avoid charges of survivorship bias.

Which brings us to the Dividend Growth 50, and the roughly $25,000 I have invested in it:

COMPANY SYMBOL SH PRICE VALUE DIV. YLD. INC.
3M (NYSE:MMM)
3 161.27 483.81 4.01 2.5 12.03
AFLAC (NYSE:AFL)
8 58.34 466.72 1.56 2.7 12.48
Altria (NYSE:MO)
10 50.28 502.80 2.08 4.1 20.80
Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)
5 109.28 546.40 1.88 1.7 9.40
AT&T (NYSE:T)
15 32.60 489.00 1.84 5.6 27.60
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP)
6 83.25 499.50 1.96 2.4 11.76
Baxter International (NYSE:BAX)
7 71.73 502.11 2.08 2.9 14.56
Becton, Dickinson (NYSE:BDX)
4 135.42 541.68 2.40 1.8 9.60
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
5 90.60 453.00 2.80 3.1 14.00
Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
5 103.23 516.15 4.28 4.1 21.40
Clorox (NYSE:CLX)
5 99.93 499.65 2.96 3.0 14.80
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
12 40.98 491.76 1.22 3.0 14.64
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL)
7 68.30 478.10 1.44 2.1 10.08
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)
8 64.47 515.76 2.92 4.5 23.36
Deere (NYSE-DE)
6 89.61 537.66 2.40 2.7 14.40
Dominion Resources (NYSE-D)
7 72.38 506.66 2.40 3.3 16.80
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR)
8 60.37 482.96 1.88 3.1 15.04
ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)
6 88.88 533.28 2.76 3.1 16.56
General Electric (NYSE:GE)
20 25.05 501.00 0.92 3.7 18.40
General Mills (NYSE:GIS)
10 52.00 520.00 1.64 3.2 16.40
Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC)
5 103.49 517.45 2.30 2.2 11.50
HCP (NYSE:HCP)
11 44.93 494.23 2.18 4.9 23.98
Hershey (NYSE:HSY)
5 98.86 494.30 2.14 2.2 10.70
IBM (NYSE:IBM)
3 153.59 460.77 4.40 2.9 13.20
J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM)
5 99.59 497.95 2.56 2.6 12.80
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
5 104.48 522.40 2.80 2.7 14.00
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB)
4 113.77 455.08 3.36 3.0 13.44
Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI)
13 38.87 505.31 1.76 4.5 22.88
Kraft Foods (KRFT)
8 59.94 479.52 2.20 3.7 17.60
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)
3 186.59 559.77 6.00 3.2 18.00
McCormick (NYSE:MKC)
7 73.18 512.26 1.60 2.2 11.20
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD)
5 90.15 450.75 3.40 3.8 17.00
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
11 46.06 506.66 1.24 2.7 13.64
NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE)
5 102.36 511.80 2.90 2.8 14.50
Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI)
13 38.30 497.90 2.08 5.4 27.04
PepsiCo (NYSE-PEP)
5 94.79 473.95 2.62 2.8 13.10
Philip Morris (NYSE-PM)
6 82.68 496.08 4.00 4.8 24.00
Procter & Gamble (NYSE-PG)
6 90.41 542.46 2.57 2.8 15.42
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM)
7 71.11 497.77 1.68 2.4 11.76
Realty Income (NYSE:O)
11 46.50 511.50 2.20 4.7 24.20
Southern Company (NYSE:SO)
10 48.22 482.20 2.10 4.4 21.00
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)
6 81.04 486.24 1.28 1.6 7.68
Target (NYSE:TGT)
7 73.07 511.49 2.08 2.8 14.56
United Technologies Corp. (NYSE:UTX)
4 114.56 458.24 2.36 2.1 9.44
Verizon (NYSE:VZ)
11 46.39 510.29 2.20 4.7 24.20
Visa (NYSE:V)
2 257.83 515.66 1.92 0.7 3.84
Walgreen (WAG)
7 73.40 513.80 1.35 1.8 9.45
Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)
6 84.53 507.18 1.92 2.3 11.52
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
9 53.67 483.03 1.40 2.6 12.60
Wisconsin Energy (NYSE:WEC)
10 50.59 505.90 1.69 3.3 16.90

TOTALS 25029.94 3.1 775.26


(KEY: SH is the number of shares bought; PRICE is the price paid per share; VALUE is the value of each position at time of purchase; DIV. is annual dividend in dollars; YLD. is dividend yield percentage; INC. is annual income at the current dividend rate. All data is as of purchase date: 12/16/14.)

As you see in the table, I bought about $500 worth of each DG50 company. I did not have to pay sales commissions, because I was given 50 free trades as an incentive to move the money to Fidelity. (Several major brokerages offer such inducements.)

Building The DG50 Portfolio

We all have seen sentences such as this one: "A $100 investment in Wal-Mart 40 years ago would be worth $829,600 today." While technically accurate, the reality is that nobody invested $100 in WMT or any other company in 1974. Back then, brokers required purchases in 100-share lots, and commissions alone could approach $100.

Besides, a precise $100 investment would have required that a stock trade in multiples of $10. That rarely happened in 1974... and it still rarely happens, which is why not a single DG50 position cost exactly $500 to buy.

Most of the positions filled within $20 of $500. The largest outlay was $559.77 for three shares of Lockheed Martin; the smallest was $450.75 for five shares of McDonald's.

While the primary purpose of this project is to see how the overall income stream grows over time, many readers love to make total-return comparisons. So I also spent $552.57 for three shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO) and $477.18 for six shares of Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEARCA:VIG). Finally, I bought $5,006 worth of VDIGX, representing one-fifth of the DG50 portfolio's cost. That should allow for easy comparisons over the years.

And yes, I said "over the years." Not weeks or months or even quarters, but years.

Add it all up, and I have committed more than $31,000 toward this project. Although some might use that as proof that I should be committed, I consider it a great investment. In addition to the dividends and capital gains I will receive over time, I will benefit from the lessons this study will teach all of us.

Portfolio Rules

All income will be reinvested into the companies that paid the dividends. Otherwise, there will be absolutely no buying or selling. This will be a passive portfolio - classic buy-and-hold. (Dividends and capital gains also will be reinvested into VOO, VIG and VDIGX.)
While the portfolio starts out as close to equally weighted as possible, it will not remain that way over time, because I will not rebalance. I will let the winners run and losers languish.
In the event of a spin-off, the new company will join the DG50 as kind of a plus-1. Will I change the name if the portfolio grows to 51 or 52 companies? I doubt it; the Big Ten didn't change its name when it grew to 11 and then 12 and now 14 schools. Mergers will be handled on a case-by-case basis.
Should any companies go out of business, the value of those positions presumably would go to zero. The idea is to truly reflect the progress of these 50 companies, which the panelists deemed very high-quality.
If a company reduces or eliminates its dividend, or if its fundamentals erode, it will continue to be held. I want to see how the overall portfolio is affected by all manner of events, good and bad.
Because this portfolio is in an IRA, taxes will not be an issue until I am subject to required minimum distributions in 2031. By then, I will either have converted the portfolio to a Roth IRA to avoid RMDs or, more likely, I will have decided that 17 years was a long enough life span for this project.
Some Dividend Growth investors might say: "But this doesn't really represent how we invest. If the dividend is cut, we sell. If fundamentals change, we bail. DGI is not really buy-and-hold, but buy-and-monitor."

That would be a fair point, but every DG investor has different rules. For example, one frequent Seeking Alpha commenter who goes by the handle Buy & Hold 2012 says he has never sold one share of stock in 44 years - and his methods have helped him become wealthy. Some sell if a dividend raise doesn't meet a certain threshold. Some sell immediately if there is a cut. Some buy only companies with yields of 3% or higher. Some rebalance regularly to maintain equal-weight positions; others overweight their core holdings. Many investors would avoid buying several DG50 components now, due to overvaluation.

One of the interesting things about compiling the DG50 was seeing the panelists' various approaches. The 10 of them combined to choose 160 different companies, including several that pay no dividends at all.

So I believe it would be imprudent to establish rules that supposedly cover the way all Dividend Growth investors operate, because, in fact, there is no DGI Creed.

Conclusion

One could argue quite convincingly that this project is as much about a buy-and-hold strategy as it is about DGI - and I wouldn't argue with that argument at all. No matter how one looks at it, this multiple-year study should be fun and instructive.

Welcome to the Dividend Growth 50, folks. Let the "forward-testing" begin!

Disclosure: The author is long AAPL, ADP, AFL, BAX, BDX, CAT, CL, CLX, CVX, COP, D, DE, EMR, GE, GIS, GPC, HCP, HSY, IBM, JNJ, KMB, KMI, KO, KRFT, LMT, MCD, MKC, MMM, MO, MSFT, NEE, O, OHI, PEP, PG, PM, QCOM, SBUX, SJM, SO, T, TGT, UTX, V, VDIGX, VIG, VOO, VZ, WAG, WEC, WFC, WMT, XOM.

The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Good little read. Will have to check for their update posts as time goes on.

I've got a handful of those names in my basket too. ;)

That list is the who's who of the stock market.... and not a bad name on there either. I think there's far too many names. I've always been about being able to actually recite every investment you own and EXACTLY what they do - what return you're getting etc. Once you get up to 50 ---- that's getting pretty hard to remember. I like 20 or 25 total. But I tend to concentrate...

Will be / would be - very interesting to see how those stocks do over time - my guess is they'll do very, very well.

Pretty interesting look into DGI, thanks for posting Sieg. I'm now following the author to make sure I don't miss future updates on the portfolio.

So here's CRAMERS view of the market:


"Being prepared means selling or trimming not just stocks you're indifferent to, but even the stocks you like, betting that you can buy them back at a lower level."

-Jim Cramer



Let's discuss this for the average investor. Cramer is talking to people with trader brain. He's talking to people that watch the markets move every minute of every day. THEY can TRY to time the market by capturing their gains (inducing a tax event).... sitting on the sidelines.... and waiting in the hopes that they catch the right move in their stocks. In the meantime - they miss a dividend payment.... in the meantime they'll NOT catch the bottom because they'll either be busy with LIFE -- or the market will move HUGE in one day - and they'll miss that - and then chase the market up.

My point??


I've been doing this for 30 years.... I'm trying to impart a tiny bit of what I've learned over the years. I keep huge amounts of cash on the sidelines. BUT I CAN AFFORD TO DO THAT. I'm already rich. You guys are trying to get rich or get your retirements rolling. I guarantee you're not going to get this right. And you'll create a taxable event etc.

Please don't react to every little nuance in the market.

Here's what I do during market corrections or "dips" or whatever you want to call it --- I don't sell --- I use these events to add to positions. But I have cash on the side so I don't have to sell.

I agree but with a minor add... I stock up long positions that are long past short term gains liability... Then if I have big upsides on them (think over 75%) I may trickle some of that out and buy back during a low...

It's really 99% hold long with some opertunistic sales and buy backs... Trick I follow is to always have some of position be in hand longer tha 2 years so you can ladder . Look up CD laddering for an example

Trimming PROFIT (gains) is never a bad thing to do.... particularly if you're re-investing and diversifying with those captured gains. Just remember that you're triggering a taxable event.


Now then ----- I've stated 100 times in this thread.... another overused and often stated:

"when interest rates rise the stock market dies"

In other words -- just like HOUSING PRICES will do -- when interest rates climb to some ARBITRARY RATE - at some point prices must come DOWN when Interest rates rise or they become unaffordable (on a monthly payment basis).

Stocks come down to constantly adjust the yields to reflect current (future actually) thinking. If MONEY can earn X other there -- and it's more than MONEY can earn here - people sell and move the money. Simple. There MUST BE a correlation between price paid and return on investment. EVERYONE is looking for the same thing. It's not magic!

If you're in to 3% or 4% and less dividend payers -- and you'd bought them last week --- you're going to take a hit!

But if you bought the shares months ago -- or a couple years ago -- then you're still collecting a very nice % dividend yield on YOUR COST BASIS.... and when the price of the shares drop - your reinvested dividend will buy more shares.

Now then ------------- LOOK AT YOUR COST BASIS.... compute YOUR dividend return rate..... and if the shares are UP 25% and oh gee! Heaven forbid your shares declined 4% on Friday..... Really?? You're worried about that?? If you sold now ---- and then realized you have a bunch of cash but no investments earning money --- and now you get back in -- you've just paid inflated prices for the "new" shares.

WE ARE NOT THE BIG MARKET MOVERS AND SHAKERS -- WE ARE NOT TRADERS -- WE ARE INVESTORS. We should see a market decline as opportunity to add to our nest egg.... not RUSH IN... but pay attention and tip toeing in constantly is going to serve you well years down the road.

Remember to go to the charts and stretch 'em out and look at all the squiggles in the line... oh yeah -- that's it! They represent price movement up and DOWN... but it's the general long term TREND that's important. Not todays news.

Keep preaching it Brother Greg...I've bought in to DGI investing and it's true, I didn't even pay attention to my stuff last Friday. Too busy with life and all.

Big drops like that used to eat me up, not any more.

Lance, what does DGI mean? (funny cause my company is DublinGlassInc, but we're not public lol)

The hugest thing i've taken away from this thread over the last 3+ years, i had no idea otherwise, and STILL haven't heard it mentioned anywhere else on the investment stuff i follow (part time)......

Dividend Growth Investing

The other thing to possibly keep in mind is businesses with large amounts of 'float' cash are going to make a lot of money from interest income as rates go up. So you might be able to capitalize on that while still picking up a dividend (albeit a smaller yield compared to many stocks discussed here. Think: banks and brokerage firms.

Yes, some of this is already 'priced in' on the stock, but it's worth keeping in mind if you want to invest in a financial name you like.

It's already been three years since I started investing EVERY month. It's turned into a nice sum with a reasonable gain at this point. I like the green days, but I've learned to be patient and let time be on my side. I'm still looking at 25-30 years before I plan to touch these investments. (Unless a position looks weak)

It's been fun for me to analyze and make my own moves. The natural side effect has been getting more involved with our other investments.

On the personal side, we've learned to live well below our means. That gives us the flexibility to save aggressively. In turn, that allows for more discretionary time to enjoy our lives.

In addition to saving, I think it's very important to have solid long term goals and vision. That's really what keeps you saving aggressively. It's amazing once we have a target, how often we are drawn subconsciously. I can't tell you how many times I've written down a goal and achieved it and went, wow, this really works. Many times I've nearly forgot about it, but it was ground way down in my mind. The key is to write it down, scheme and plot, and then start down the path.

Success breeds success! It's amazing how the SNOWBALL that is patient investing -- starts to grow - and the more it grows the MORE you feel like saving and investing!! Funny how that works.

When you don't have squat -- you feel like you can never get ahead so why bother..... but once you have a small pile - you start to see how it works and the excitement takes over. If you buy one rental and it works okay -- you automatically start plotting how to get #2 and so on.

That is NOT TO SAY that every investment works out - and some go to zero - and some just do "okay" and maybe one does great. But hopefully people don't give up when they just do "okay".

#1 --- I want you guys to THINK ABOUT the amounts in dollars or volume that I am trading! I'm not trying to "save" $50..... I'm not trying to be "cute" by timing the market.... and the dollar amounts are LARGE. So the following discussion needs to be put into context. AND THESE ARE TAXABLE ACCOUNTS I deal with NOT IRA/401's Tax deferred accounts!

********************************************

I've been working with my Wells Fargo team to find some dividend investments that can be played without making the wrong "pick". One of these areas is oil... I have some big ass losses in oil and as we come up to year end -- and with my health issues.... I need to balance a couple investments and get them lined up for this years taxes and re-deployment etc....


So in that light --- I took a HUGE LOSS on Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) and then BOUGHT Alerian MLP (AMLP).


Here's why this was done - to help you guys THINK about it.


With near 1 million dollars invested in KMI -- which used to pay a great dividend and had great growth -- but got KILLED with the sudden collapse in the oil patch - and cut the dividend to where it was paying about 2.2%

I had a loss in this name of about $300K AND I'm not earning a return on it.

Now -- I BELIEVE that this name will respond just fine as oil climbs -- but it will stay depressed right alongside oil prices. How long is that going to be? 1 more year? 3 more years? Can they go back down from here? Blah blah blah


Now --------- I invest for INCOME and growth..... remember always that we want a combo of these!! To accept 2.2% dividend - then I'd have to have strong capital growth. I assume I'm going to get neither of these - and I'm held down by other outside influences. Okay -- deal with it.

So we have the INCOME loss if I sell..... and I have a huge tax loss (2016).... and we're nearing the end of the year.

If I sell KMI -- I can not buy it back for 31 days. If I do - I invoke the "WASH SALE" rule. Which says I can't sell a stock for a loss and then buy it right back -- I must WAIT for 30 business days plus one day. In the meantime I'd lose the income and any move the market might make. WHAT TO DO??


I turned right around and BOUGHT ALERIAN MLP (AMLP) -- this is an oil patch Master Limited Partnership (don't buy these inside a IRA/401).... that holds a bunch of names in the industry... AND IT PAYS 8.79%


What this will do is to give me the income that I "lost" ----- and keeps me in the patch to capture any possible upside in that space.

********************************************



Why do all this??

Because in a RISING RATE market -- owning shares that are going to pay a small dividend -- that is NOT GOING TO ATTRACT MORE INVESTORS!! In other words --- the share price only goes up when more people want to own the shares than want to sell. You have to ask yourself -- are people going to put money into something that pays 2%.... and has a considerable risk???

Do I still LOVE KMI??? YES!! But I must MANAGE MY EMPLOYEES == and I had one million of them not doing much work!!

******************************************


I also sold all of my ALTRIA (MO) ---- why??? A HUGE GAIN!! AND A DECLINING % RETURN going forward.

The gain will offset the LOSS on taxes. Perfect timing. A net gain of ZERO.... but going forward a large net gain in income while still keeping my ability to make money on the investment SHOULD THE OIL PATCH RECOVER. I don't want to abandon this area of investment --- and in the end my plan is to MAKE BACK ALL THE MONEY I LOST on KMI --- in ALMP If and when oil prices rise.


WHY SELL MO??? Offset gains for taxes --- and I think the CURRENT high price which makes the dividend begin to pale in a rising rate market --- it starts to become a "CROWDED TRADE" --- lots of people with large gains -- and the returns for NEW BUYERS (remember we NEED THEM!) are getting pretty slim in a rising rate market. Why not trim a huge gain --- for tax purposes --- and buy it or something else and get out of the way of year end selling.


Remember --- this is HUGE MONEY TRADES --- THESE ARE MILLION DOLLAR POSITIONS...... We're not talking about guys holding 100 shares in an IRA with no tax implications (you can't offset losses with gains etc until years down the road). I'm just giving you a glimpse into the thinking that you hear on TV and read in the news about "year end tax loss harvesting" etc. THIS is what they're talking about.

Thanks for the post as always Greg,

one thing you brought up got me curious

I never knew that and I am glad you brought it up because I read up on it and learned something new

I understand your moves completely Greg, that's good planning on you and your team's part. Only question is...what are you going to do with your MO money now? :D

Well I WILL buy MO again -- but will (as I always do) watch it and see if some air comes out of it near year end and that will all depend on whether the FED raises rates etc before year end.

I always keep pretty large cash balances. I don't need to make a return on every nickel we have - and I like to be "fleet footed". My positions are pretty sizable - and if I get into a situation where I need to move the needle on a holding -- it takes a bit of umpf to make a difference (such as averaging down etc).

I've been adding some Glaxo Smith Kline - GSK..... and nibbling at that. I've also added some risky stuff but at very small positions -- such as Navios Marine (NAP) -- pays a huge dividend but is risky as hell. BUT ---- THERE'S ALWAYS A BUTT in the room when doing this..... so let me explain something.


If I have half a million in a position that's paying 4.77%....... and I want to boost that % just a smidgen.... I can buy a hundred grand of something like NAP that pays 15.4% and move the needle - and if I buy 150K or 200K.... well then that's a really small holding but really pays nicely. WAY TOO RISKY FOR NORMAL INVESTORS TO DO THIS KIND OF CRAP --- PLEASE DON'T TRY TO COPY --- BUT PLEASE DO USE THIS FOR *********** A WAY OF THINKING.



Just super quickie math for ya ----- 500K @ 4.77% is earning 23,850. And another 100K @ 15.4% is earning 15,400..... which makes an average on 600K @ 6.55%

Great insight Greg.

Appreciate it!

Thanks Albert!

I figured many on here now might be actually capable of understanding some of this investing stuff on a little higher level. I think everyone on here now gets the basics --- and maybe now that I have a little longer to live --- I'll start sprinkling in a little more of "this kind of thinking" stuff now.

You guys want to see how WRONG (if picking UPS could be considered "wrong") versus RIGHT (getting lucky and getting it spot on).....


Pull up a Google Finance chart of FEDEX (FDX) and overlay United Parcel Service (UPS) and go "ALL"....



Nuff said --- I'll let you guys take the look!

Winning vs more winning! I'd imagine if a guy was well diversified and had both of these, over the years/months he could ease out of one and stack the other. (FedEx)

:thumbsup:

Many times I own VZ and T -- or MO and PM -- or CVX and XOM etc....... F and GM.... because it's so hard to always pick the exact winner --- and most of these kinds of names are winners long term --- it's a matter of how much of a winner vs the other one.

Funny thing about setting goals I've read a couple different places recently. Apparently, in studies they found that people that told other people what their goals were achieved them much less frequently than those that kept them to themselves. I love psychology, even though I am nowhere near a psychologist, but somehow telling other people causes you to lose a lot of your drive to achieve the goal. I can't explain why but when I thought about it I realized that is definitely true for me.

Let me guess, you found it on the internet? :tv_happy: Seriously, I've never read that, but I'm sure for some it's true. I could see that happening in a forced accountability situation like a job and an amiable personality. That seems like the logical place they came up with those results, in the workplace.

Motive is also a key component. As the great, late, Jim Rohn once said, "When the why gets strong, the how gets easy".

I really don't think it makes much difference for me. If I want something bad enough, I don't need someone to spur me along. I think accountability would benefit me more with goals of lower value.

I'm still out here "on the road" from the GoodGuys Hall of Fame Tour.... and haven't paid ANY attention to the market - despite actually placing a couple orders while Rudy was driving down the road at mach 2...

Today I was looking at Altria (MO) as I sold mine to offset a huge loss position I'd written about earlier here.

Here's what I want to have you think about because it is good food for thought.


MO paid a .41 cent dividend in 2012 -- just four scant years ago..... today's dividend is .61 cents per share - per quarter... AND since then (2012) it's share price has appreciated 132%

Now then..... let's fast forward your hypothetic retirement date..... out 15 years? 20? 25? What do you suppose they'll be paying "then"? And what percentage return will that look like when they're paying $1.20 per share per quarter and your cost basis in 2012 @ $27 bucks a share. And all the while back in 2012 when the share price was outrageously high P/E and the market was soaring and you were just certain you were paying the all time peak high price......


Yep - that's how ya get 'er done.

Still have my MO... keeping it thanks! Bought it January 2012 for $28.71.

I have some cash sitting in the 401k account, I am considering GPS. It is different than my other holdings in the 401 and I think they will be doing well over the next 5-10 years.

Attached picture is my current mix. HYH is a small amount, I received it when it was spun off from Abbott I think. The remainder are each somewhere between 7-10% of the total. Any comments about GPS or my mix?

I really need to get back into this and start taking it a little more seriously than I have as of late.:snapout:

Since Greg is the OP of this epic thread I'll address this post to him, but it applies to anyone reading.

In many ways it's a good thing that this thread goes dormant for weeks or months at a time. You've discussed how the key is to get invested in good companies and not worry about the weekly (or daily) turmoil that we see in the market. I consider the recent periods of silence in this thread to be proof that the mantra of 'time in the market, not timing the market' is working. That is one of the greatest lessons this thread has instilled.

Well.... This thread was started by WSSix (Trey) so we really should all be thanking him.

And you're absolutely correct.... The thread has ALWAYS been about great companies - dividends - and get in it to win it.

Great thread that is going on here with alot of good info!

When I opened the thread, I accidentally clicked this link and it froze my browser up with some page about kidney cancer :lostmarbles:. Just thought I'd share that, lol.

Ooops! Reading comprehension fail...Props to Trey too!

Altria (MO)
 

Found this interesting "note" about Altria (MO) and another well known large company....

Remember - we like to keep track of fundamental changes - this isn't a fundamental change "per se".... but a significant stake in another company is something that should be at least noted but the shareholders. Will it be good going forward?? IDK - booze always sells - recession or boom times....


Just thought I'd post it is all.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-anheu...act-1476191713