I haven't had a drink in 27 years -- so I really don't know much about the brands etc -- but I have looked at Diageo (DEO) and have considered buying it. My personal problem is --- with beers and alcohol is that I personally don't track with what is popular... so I stay away from what I don't know. Remember I'm always preaching to buy things you know and understand... so from a purely personal perspective I have to follow my own advice. That is not to say Budweiser (BUD) would't be a good fit for someone else's portfolio - or any of the other brewers or alcohol firms. So with that :cheers:

A very astute perspective and one that I hadn't thought about....

So we'll just assume there are readers out there -- and when they want to chime in -- then feel free.

I just finished having dinner with Rodger (Ironworks) and Jason (WAR) and after the flight down -- and going over to the show and messing around a bit - I'm too tired to do the re-cap... so that will have to wait.

Tomorrow we hit Waldens before the show opens up... :woot:

Have a great time! I expect to see a lot of pictures from that fancy iPhone 4s. The company you keep reminds me of your portfolio's. :thumbsup:

I did manage to buy this tonight -- snagged it before the show opens
tomorrow!! Everyone needs shop art!




http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/a...otos/photo.jpg

That's cool! What carb(s)?

Diageo has been one to look at.. I am busy, so I have no numbers for you, but look at it's performance..:thumbsup:

And yes, we will keep sharing Investment thoughts, because it is so Important..

Man, Investing is everything.. Without it, inflation over time will drain anything you have saved...So we need Investing 102.

Also I don't know if there are Guys out there that aren't managing their money well, and have nothing to invest.

But I think the few that continue to post have the income and cash to invest.. But for those who don't....It is all about what you bring in, and what you spend...If it ain't working, something has to change. Either more income, or less going out...Because you have to be in the game to win. And this Investing 102 Thread, is your Ticket to the Big Game....:lateral: :cheers: :woot:

The artist and his wife were kinda busy trying to set up the booth ... so I didn't take a look at the carbs... I just spent some time picking out the one I wanted.


RE: Investing 102

Man I was sure hoping FORD (F) was going to blow away this quarter... This is where we see the effects of Europe on "our" companies. Mind you -- they still did fine they just "missed" the estimates. When companies "miss the estimates" they go down. I don't own any Ford but was kinda keeping an eye on it as a possible.

Regarding Ford - What factors would trigger you to purchase shares?

Growing sales and profits and raising the dividend. The dividend just isn't there to cover the risk with the world economy still "struggling". If it paid me 4.5% or so to sit on my hands -- I'd be okay with that. Or -- that ever present stellar growth to offset the stinky little 1.64% dividend.


Remember this when investing. YOU ALWAYS HAVE CHOICES --- so why CHOOSE to invest in something that is a "maybe" or doesn't meet your criteria when there's 100's of companies that do?

Words to live by right there. :thumbsup:

At times I find myself so fixated on company "ABC" just because it catches my eye like big boobs when in reality there are so many others that have much better bodies overall but no fake boobies. :D

And you have to be into it during the rough moments...A.k.a. My KMP , which i own a lot of, is getting hammered today..

No sweat, because of the dividends, and the fact that I have opposing assets that zig when KMP zags, and they pay dividends too..:lateral: :woot:

So greg, after today, should fellow listeners be buying as you said before the 31 st ????

I have I think plenty, so I may not add, but to the viewers, it may be the TIME...

Finally a question from me about investing...I have been cheer leading too much..

So, Buy KMP after the dip, and before the 31st ?????

I'll admit, I've been watching KMP since it was first mentioned in this thread but after reading Gregs comments about it the other day I may buy into it. The dip dropped the price and I've got some money to spend.

I hope Greg chimes in.:cheers: I am a large holder of KMP, so I am just watching this on, and not adding. But he may be right on ,as usual, haha.....especially with the 31st coming.

And big dip today..Since I own PM's, it is a wash, and not a Loss today.:thumbsup:

I am off to East Bay Muscle Cars to test my car..It is in a Color photo shoot right now. :woot:

I hope Greg chimes in.:cheers: I am a large holder of KMP, so I am just watching this one, but he may be right on , especially with the 31st coming.

And big dip today..Since I own PM's and other asset classes, it is a wash, and not a Loss today.:thumbsup:

I am off to East Bay Muscle Cars to test my car..It is in a Color photo shoot right now. :woot:

I may have it home Today...:lateral:

Dear Weldy,

What I would like to discuss next is:

-Signs that it's time to say goodbye.

-Strategies for dumping longtime loosers.

-Loss grievance techniques and support classes.

The reality is I have a few long-time holdings that I'm upside down in due to account neglegence that need to be purged from the portfolio.........including two that went bankrupt. So outside insight would be appreciated as I'm probably not the only one sitting on dead skunks. :thumbsup:

One stock I'd like to add for discussion is MV Oil Trust (MVO) [especially for those investing via 401k/IRA/SEP/ROTH]. High yield (via profit distribution and NOT dividend) at 8.79%, and a decent looking chart (only 5 years though). Distribution is back on the rise since the 2008/2009 drop. 5 year total return is 179.29% (at least according to ycharts.com). I like it and I'm considering getting in on this dip.

The internet has made it tough for a company to impress investors these days. It's not enough that a company posts a profit. It's not enough that a company beats the estimate. It seems like the only way to get people to prevent your stock from plummeting on call day is to beat the estimate by more than people expect! :willy: If I ran a company it would drive me nuts. "Come on people, what more can you ask for?!"

Yes, ask Greg about Oil Royalty Trusts.. BPT, and PBT, have been some of my holdings.. Most of mine are dividend paying assets..BPT is an 8 % dividend with a 50% plus rise in 3 and 5 year chart. The total return was 107% to 167%.
3, and 5 year PBT is a 6 % dividend, with a 30 % and 45% rise in 3 and 5 year charts.

I am just asking.



although the gains are stellar, i am looking at the dividends...well both, but i am after income stream.

One of the things that would concern me is that the performance is obviously tied to the price of crude oil. Take a look at a crude oil chart.


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/M

The charts of BPT and PBT are highly correlated. If you look at the dividends, during the declines in crude oil prices you will see the dividends declining as fast as the price of crude. While they currently pay a high dividend, I would not expect that to continue if the price of crude declined.

These look much riskier to me than most of the other stocks we have been discussing.

Good point..that is why I have been more of a listener than a poster..

I do not want to cloud the Investing 102 thread at all..Thanks for your input..:cheers: :lateral:

MVO correlates to oil just like those two stocks and the Dow. Obviously lots of other factors affect share price, not just oil price. MVO has done pretty well considering. Connection to a certain commodity or region or ... is something really to be considered before investing in a stock. Just make sure you consider more than one outside influence on stock price!

Agreed. In fact these stocks seem to have more risk than just being tied to the price of oil.

I would just hate to see someone think they are getting a safe dividend payer and put a significant portion of your portfolio into those stocks. I think they could be a small percentage of one's portfolio to help boost your overall returns, though.

Also, I am by no means an expert, so I am just throwing my two cents in for what it may be worth.

Good call. In reality, it is a small portion of my portfolio. i will have to be more clear when i mention things..

Just like I won't talk about other investments I am doing...not really the nuts and bolts of Investing 102.. :cheers:

I'm not going to "champion" individual stocks.... I only use them as examples and the thinking process I (BIG BOLD I) apply to MY (BIG BOLD MY) investing style.:_paranoid

KMP is an "energy" play -- i.e., pipes and transferring "energy"... and I think a well diversified portfolio should have "some" energy. Whether you choose KMP - COP - EEP - XOM - CVX all depends on your account and what you need. I personally own KMP - EEP - COP - CHKR. They give my account the diversity and the DIVIDENDS that I want. My accounts are a "bit" different than "investing 102".... they're most likely a "bit" larger -- so when I'm trying to diversify I need more than one name in a sector. I bought the COP after doing some digging around for an answer to another post back a few pages. As ALWAYS it's down since I bought it... that my friends is a "given" in investing and that's when you need to have some patience (and some fortitude).

Greg, welcome back.:cheers:

Yes, when i buy into something that i think is down, it sure can go down more, before it goes up past your buy point..

I just do the research, and then wait it out.. almost always there is a loss before the real gain happens, because i am not timing the bottom, no one can..

today was my first ride in my modified Muscle car, I had so much fun, i could explode...:lateral:

Man ---- You guys are some serious INVESTORS!! :bow: :bow: :woot:


Okay --- Oil Royalty Trusts -- of which there are many -- and really "land leases" -- where the trust owns the mineral rights -- and they generate cash and spin that off to the "investors" in the trust. They are GIANT CASH COWS when oil prices are high!!

Now here's the tricky part. Nobody really knows how much oil is there - and how long it will be flowing - and at what rate - and at what cost to lift - and what the market price will be.

BPT is an OLDER trust - pumping some 20 years.... So ask yourself -- do they have 100 years of oil left? Do they run dry next week? RISKY -- you bet. Remember what you get with RISK?? Higher "rewards" thus the high dividend - because all the stars are aligned! I own a similar trust -- Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust (CHKR)....

Like all of these things we discuss --- Each person needs to do their research --- and understand all of what they're getting into. Asking here for input is okay --- and should be done -- but remember! They're just OPINIONS... and what is appropriate for me to invest in - may not be suitable for someone with 10,000 or (name an amount). These things all depend on age - $$ - use... and blah blah blah.

Flew home this afternoon -- figured I'd work on a re-cap during the flight -- I use GOGO INFLIGHT wifi connection... Get to 10,000 feet and go to log on -- and no gogo ---- seems Alaska Air has 4 planes with no GOGO --- and, of course, I'm on one!

Greg,Thanks.:cheers:

Oh ya, I am as serious as can be when it comes to Investing. That is what I live on.

And I just have a passion for it...Did I mention that I made my new KDW's as sticky as can be today ?

One quick thing.. I am starting a shift from being the lender, bonds/fixed income, and going to being the owner,stocks, not by much, but I see a shift and do I want to be the lender, that they promise to pay me back, aka europe, ect.., or do iIwant to own more, and be an owner/dividends ??? I think the owner... I feel that the promise to pay me back is getting thin all over the world...

People think fixed income and bonds are safe...hmmmm.....maybe they are not..

And again, I am riskier in PM's, and Oil, so although I share with you, I don't recommend it to the masses. I do it with my money.

But thanks for the kudo's...I will be trying to research and step up my Game with my posts..

Took me a long time to start chiming in..

Last thing..I don't really look at my total balance..it may go up and down due to some of my plays..

I am concerned with income stream, and the dividends..A certain asset i own may go down in balance, but it pays 6 to 14%. depending on the asset, but the point i guess, is that the dividend gets paid, and the income stream is there..

Also I am spread out , and some of these plays are very small in the mix..

I do believe that we are going to be spending in 2012..NO president ever gets re elected in a complete meltdown, and and we will be falsely propped up with government spending, because re election at all costs..and the dollar will continue to suffer..But that is only my opinion...

And my 2012 strategy...kinda the same as 2011, but with the bonds to stock shift of maybe 15 to 20 percent of the total blend...

See --- that's where you and I are exactly the same kind of investor :thumbsup: I look at the investment -- it goes up - it goes down... but what I look at is the dividend stream. If you invest $200,000 and it's paying you 5% per year in dividends - it's spinning off $10,000 a year in income... do I care if it's "down" $5,000 or even $20,000 temporarily? NOPE.... Own it over a 3 or 5 year period -- it's going to be UP and it will be kicking out that cash!

What I'm trying to get others to think about is that cash that you and I live on NOW -- is the same cash that will BUILD UP and buy more shares and snowball for everyone else. Either way - it's a win win.

True.. Especially for those not needing the money for years...Why watch the balance ?? If you did the research, and bought the right stuff, over time...bingo...

So your point of research, buying, holding, not buying into the volatility, and the media noise.. Are all good to recap

Because if you and I are not worried about the fluctuations, others should not.. their money is going to work for a long time before they take an income stream..

Those 400 and 500 point swings in 2011 , would swing the balance so much that I cannot mention the amounts..

But in the end, my mix held strong, and I lived off the dividends.

I truly believe 2012 will be as volatile, and I reserve comment for 2013 until later..

But When the time is right, a recap for all the listeners please...

I love to hear opinion of those with money at work... I will never know enough..:cheers: :lateral: :woot:

After a few years of watching builds, a few weeks of reading this thread, Ive gotta say I'm a little nervous for my first post to be in investing. An area I, up until reading this thread, knew nothing about.

Anyway, is there an online calculator, or formula that would allow me to figure out:

If I invested $10,000 in say Kinder Morgan (KMP) 10 years ago, and reinvested the dividends, where would my money be sitting today, and if this steady eddie were to continue on its path, where would my money be in 10 years, 20 years? Roughly speaking.

Also, I want to thank everyone who has contributed. This thread is an eye opener. Your honesty and openess is very much appreciated.

Glad to hear you're getting something out of all this typing!!


I can't find a 10 year TOTAL RETURN figure -- but it was easy to do a 5 year -
so your 10 grand FIVE years ago -- would now be 16 grand. I'm thinking that the 10 grand 10 years ago would be 25,000+ easy.

That's where the TIME comes into play in investing... 10 becomes 20 becomes 40 becomes 80 becomes 160... so if you put the 10 grand away that you got from graduation instead of blowing it and going to Italy for a month :lol: by the time you're 60 years old that 10,000 is $160,000 Now at 60 you'd appreciate Italy even more and you could go for a couple months!

Now imagine if you would - that you were clever enough to save $10,000 at 20 years old and then added 5,000 a year every year until you were 40....

Tyler, welcome.. you are doing something about your future..most don't..

if you get passionate about it, it will reward you.. guys like Greg don't need to share. it is a giving back sort of thing..

Remember that they want you to think it is voodoo, or brain surgery.. They do not want you to have wealth..they being the bankers, wall street, the US government..

They want you needy..well Tyler, you are on the path to be needy no more..

then you get to the point where it does not matter who is President, or the state of china's economy, or europe, or at some point, even a Job..

Well done on chiming in...We will learn together..:cheers: :lateral:

Alright Tyler E ---- Just for you I did a little work..... and found via Morningstar a 10 year total return calculator/chart thingy. :D

I was a bit off on my "guess" of what 10K in KMP 10 year ago would be today -- I guessed 25,000+

So drum roll...........


According to Morningstar -- it would be 62,000 today


Go to this link --- and then just above the "chart" hit the EXPAND tab.

http://performance.morningstar.com/s...&culture=en-us

So Greg.

with the decision of the federal reserve to keep interest rates low for a year or more, and therefore continuing the crushing of the dollar by the government buying up treasuries, it seems like my commodity play of 2011, is going to be a win in 2012 due to their policies..

i see the government artificially inflating the economy and the markets, rather than to take the bitter pill now, or years ago.. especially in the election year.

The problem is, to buy now is even riskier than buying three years ago.. but there is money to be made in 2012..

we will take the pill someday ala 2008 type event , if we don't take our medicine now..

But the feds have given me the green light again, and i will take it..

just an observation:cheers: :woot:

Sometimes people think that they missed out on an opportunity because it has already gone up..

Some of my investments if you look back 10 years 10k would be 121k...but that did not stop me three years ago from buying them..

I knew that, or I believed they would continue to rise, so rather than wait or say i missed out, i got in, and let it build up...

I did not get the 10 year rise, but the three year is pretty good too..

$62,000 !!!!! Well, if that doesn't put a sh!t eating grin on your face.......

Solarguy, the passion has just went up, tenfold.

I would have never guessed that compounding would have increased my initial to that extent in such a short time.

My mutual fund guy told me I should be happy that I didnt lose money this year because of the market. I think his back end is going to meet the front end of my workboot!

I picked up, and am half way through, Peter Lynch's book "One up on Wall Street". Greg, are you friends with Lynch, because it appears you two think the same.

Again, THANK YOU Gregweld for spearheading this discussion.:bow:

For the Canucks on here, which discount investment house are you using? Its time to get rolling!

I'm only going to comment on this as a general response to how "I" think... as it fits into this thread.

I'm not smart enough to be able to factor in exogenous events - and particularly - what may or may not happen in the future. Who is President of the U.S.A.... what China might do with their Yuan... Whether or not Canada builds a pipeline or sends their oil to China etc.

So that's why I just focus on companies I know - with great 5 or 10 year charts - with great TOTAL RETURNS - and as much dividend as I can get out of a sector using all of these historic factors. What that does for me is allows me to just invest - sit back and let the company management figure out the details and what THEY need to do for the best outcome for their company. IF they continue to do what they've been doing - I should come out okay.

So let's use this recent news about the big pipeline from Canada to somewhere in the US.... and now there's issues about sensitive land that it would have to cross etc. and blah blah blah.

I own two pipeline companies -- Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP). I am going to have to ASSume that they are very on top of this whole thing - and most likely were knowledgable about it 10 years ago when it was first talked about... and how it affects their businesses going forward etc. This is THEIR business. I gotta trust that they're all over it.

Me? I have important things to worry about -- like where the next car show is going to be - and which car I'm going to take - and whether or not I got the dates right and made hotel reservations.

My PARTNERS (since - when you buy stocks - you own a piece of the company) will worry about that pipeline thingy. I trust them - that's why I put my money in their company.

What I will pay attention to is whether they continue to be the good managers that I thought they were. If the whole stock market is going down and the stock goes down with it - doesn't make them dumb. When the market turns around - and everything is going back up - their stock will go back up too. My job was to buy more of it when it was "on sale" (think Nordstroms half yearly sale). :unibrow:

Tyler... Compound Interest will blow your Mind.. And add to that , if you have no car Loans, or credit card debt, and my friend, it is to the moon with your money.

I won't cloud your visions with other funds that I have , but triple digit rises in 10 years have been achieved.

Some lost money, and some went up 12 times the initial investment.. So the average is good..

The lost Decade of 2001 to 2011 , did not happen to everyone... Only those asleep at the wheel..

But if you are paying NO interest, except a First mortgage only..A Fixed 15 or 30 year , depending on your point of view, at these historically low rates(4%), And you are investing and compounding over time....

Oh Man...Watch it happen...You won't see it right away, but several years later, and if you review your goals once, and maybe twice a year.

That is the ticket..

And read about Greg's "Bucket Theory".. Short, mid, and long term buckets...

Fundamentals; Diversity, Liquidity, Dollar Cost averaging in, no day trading, or listening to the day to day noise...Media, your Friends, co workers.

Read from those that have done it, and form your own theory..Because no matter what we say, it must be your studies and research that get you to make the decisions with YOUR money...

we can only give opinions..Sure true life stories to help motivate, and guide, but it is a constant passion and study that will get you there.

Mike V.


Good luck to you.. Remember Luck is the meeting of opportunity, and Preparation..

So, it is about studying, actions, and patience.

I saw my attorney the other day, and we talked about a few portfolio's that I am involved in , and He is attorney for.. He asked about the Investments and i told him that We all made money and were living off the Dividends, and we were still up , after all that... He just looked at me and smiled. he said in this economy, you MADE money ?? Oh ya...

The Guy is the Best Attorney around...He love the home loan rate i got, and my Investment Strategy...Makes me feel good..

Get Passionate....Stay that way for Life... Be humble.... you will make it happen:cheers: :lateral:

When I'm showing someone how I invest -- I'll bring up this very fact. People say "well it's gone up a lot! So I can't buy it now - it's up too much"....

REALLY? Pull up a 10 year chart of the company (pick one) and say -- okay -- show me on this chart (as it's doubled or tripled over the last 10 years) when you would have bought... or as YOU'RE telling me -- that it was too high to buy... 'cause what that chart is telling me is that it's still going up and over time it will be higher than where it is right now. (We're not talking "hot stocks" here - were talking about our good long term high dividend payers -- NOT Netflix etc).