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CRCRFT78 02-27-2012 07:39 PM

BTW I thought this was an Investing website :_paranoid you mean to tell me I can learn about cars too.:D

Love this thread, thanks again Trey for lighting a fire under some of us.:thumbsup:

toy71camaro 02-27-2012 10:01 PM

Wow fella's... finally.. like 5 days later... i finished the thread.... lmao.

Now, on to do some research before I pose any questions...

My "To Do" list...

1. Review my Roth account, see what i am holding, what sectors they are in, and if they are really, the "best of the breed". I have little in there, but am putting in enough monthly for the past 6 months to max my yearly contribution amount. I do own mostly dividend stuff, but not all great stuff (I do have a handful of some MCD tho! hah)

2. Find what "sectors" I need to be in, for the coming future.
3. Find the best of breeds for these sectors.
4. Then tackle my 401k (which, i'd been paying into since i was 19 (not a max, but company matched max)... 30 now.).. but last time i checked, its roughly +4% since i started it. (better than down i suppose!)

My 401k is via John Hancock, anyone know if you can do the "brokerage link" for it to get away from only picking Mutual Funds??



Again, I want to say thanks. I dont have a schwab account, but wished i did for what sounds like their tools are top of the class. I'm currently using Sharebuilder (dont shoot me) for my Roth (and i have a personal account, which has like $150 in it. lol. but i did buy like 0.2 shares of apple thats up like 260%. hah).... The good side of sharebuilder is that i can auto-buy my stocks on Tuesday for $2 a buy (thanks to costco membership) - and quite often I can find "promotions" for free stock buys. :D

Bucketlist2012 02-28-2012 09:19 AM

Well I said it and I meant.

If only one person gets something out of this thread, then it is a success.

I started the thread somewhere else and only ToyCamaro seems to be the one from that thread...

Good enough for me...

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solarguy09 (Post 398186)
Well I said it and I meant.

If only one person gets something out of this thread, then it is a success.

I started the thread somewhere else and only ToyCamaro seems to be the one from that thread...

Good enough for me...

Thanks again for pointing me towards this thread here. I had an "idea" of the "concept" of dividend/drip investing, but thats all. I've heard people promote it, but they've been "big wig TV people" or "some random investment firm dude across the country ".. i dont feel comfortable "acting on their advice" (just like it was mentioned here, the "upcoming hot stocks" style reports are just "noise" and you cant base everything off that one dudes opinion.

I've always tried to be as smart with my money as i could. since i was little. Never been a "credit card debt" guy. Always paid it off. Got into the housing market when i bought my first house in early/mid 2000's... but gave it up in the divorce in 09 (and still trying to get my name off the damn loan).. so in the meantime, i'm debt free, renting a decent house for a decent price, trying to "invest" now into my retirement, and better my long term future. Been doing 7% or so of my salary into 401k since 19, so its "something" but not much.

if only i could get that damn house out of my name and get my own house again. lol.

Went thru and noted all my investments after last night. documenting what i have, how much, how it pays, etc. so i can "review" them, and see which fit, which down and where to go from there. i will have questions... just not yet. hah :lol:


Also... I am doing this for more than "just me".. as in, im trying to learn as much as i can so i can help my parents with their future. They dont have much at all, but i dont want them to lose what they do have. My dad is medically retired (two time cancer survivor, now medically retired due to congestive heart failure from the chemo drugs). - (fellow car guy, almost done restoring a 65 Malibu ;) ) I need to figure out how to manage his 401k so he is prepared with it and not be in a "volatile" market for the balance of his retirement (a lot of his "funds" are higher risk, and i dont want him taking a long downward slope again if the market does turn). And lastly, to help my sister (a little younger than me, im 31) plan her familys future, as they have basically little to no retirement.

so again, i cant thank you enough.

Bucketlist2012 02-28-2012 10:22 AM

71ToyCamaro.

I commend you on all your efforts..

You are on the right track...I have had and lost everything in a Divorce, so I feel you on that one..1993.

The parents thing...I wish I knew THEN what I know now..I missed that opportunity to help my parents by 10 years. They passed before I became smart and successful.And it fuels me now to be on the TOP of my game, in money management, Investing, and Bucket Lists.. My Mom and Dad spent and did not save...Fun times but lessons learned.. Should of, would of , could of, been a millionaire. but instead they died not in good shape...10 years off. I would have ....could have...should have..But again, no rearview mirrors....

So, as I always have said, I am just the conduit for people to find the Tools and Motivation to do this stuff, and check where they are at, and where they are going...And just a dash of where you been, so you don't repeat it, but not much on the rear view mirror..Life is warp speed and you best be looking forward with your head on a swivel...Life is happening fast...

So you are welcome. I swear this stuff makes my day.. I am on the road to just help give back.
I knew this thread had a lot to offer, and that is why I started the other dead thread. Yes, it is dying.
I hoped people would get motivated to study. I am a nobody in the Investment world. I am no pro or investment advisor.. Just a Car Guy obsessed with controlling his life on his terms and not the crooks in power...:cheers:

GregWeld 02-28-2012 10:24 AM

One of my favorite sayings....


Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans.

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 12:02 PM

Finding "Total Return"....

So, Trying to "track down" my current investments so i can analyze them and compare them to what choices i should make when i rebalance my account.

I see Greg mentions schwab having an awesome "Total Return" chart. Trying to find something similar, I ran across MorningStar's 10k growth chart (which, after finding while reading this thread, it was mentioned a few pages later. :rofl: )

Anyhow, I am just not sure i am reading it right, and want to make sure I am reading it right before i start trying to calc the total return on my current/future investments...

Lets take KMP for example, as it was one tossed around here fairly often for review purposes. I pull up the KMP "$10k Growth" Chart. Under the first chart section it has "History", which for 2011 shows 27.43. Is that the "Total Return" that I am looking for (obviously, just for the one year. I'd have to average them out).

Below that chart, is another chart named "trailing total returns", which has a lightly different value for the "1 year" mark of 29.00 (perhaps one year being today minus 365 days, as opposed to just 2011?).

Anyhow, I just want to make sure I am reading this properly, and also, does that report match up with what Schwab is saying for Total Returns (DRIP included)? (if someone with a Schwab account could help, that'd be fantastic!)

Thanks, and told you i'd have questions. :lol:

Bucketlist2012 02-28-2012 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 398195)
One of my favorite sayings....


Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans.

No matter how much you plan, something will come up..We adapt or Die..

My Wife and i have the balance now to enjoy the fruits of years of plans..

Not too much planning as enjoying now days...feels good...

Young enough not to need a walker to get out to the Z/28.

But old enough for compound interest to have done it's magic.

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398203)
Finding "Total Return"....

So, Trying to "track down" my current investments so i can analyze them and compare them to what choices i should make when i rebalance my account.

I see Greg mentions schwab having an awesome "Total Return" chart. Trying to find something similar, I ran across MorningStar's 10k growth chart (which, after finding while reading this thread, it was mentioned a few pages later. :rofl: )

Anyhow, I am just not sure i am reading it right, and want to make sure I am reading it right before i start trying to calc the total return on my current/future investments...

Lets take KMP for example, as it was one tossed around here fairly often for review purposes. I pull up the KMP "$10k Growth" Chart. Under the first chart section it has "History", which for 2011 shows 27.43. Is that the "Total Return" that I am looking for (obviously, just for the one year. I'd have to average them out).

Below that chart, is another chart named "trailing total returns", which has a lightly different value for the "1 year" mark of 29.00 (perhaps one year being today minus 365 days, as opposed to just 2011?).

Anyhow, I just want to make sure I am reading this properly, and also, does that report match up with what Schwab is saying for Total Returns (DRIP included)? (if someone with a Schwab account could help, that'd be fantastic!)

Thanks, and told you i'd have questions. :lol:

On a side note, I found a "Total Return Price" chart on ycharts.com (under their "interactive charts tab then check the "% option)

Says for KMP the returns is 75.90% for the past 5 years. That obviously doesnt quite match up with what MorningStar reports. So i feel i am not reviewing it correctly.

Bucketlist2012 02-28-2012 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398210)
On a side note, I found a "Total Return Price" chart on ycharts.com (under their "interactive charts tab then check the "% option)

Says for KMP the returns is 75.90% for the past 5 years. That obviously doesnt quite match up with what MorningStar reports. So i feel i am not reviewing it correctly.

I am off to do some things, but just remember to be careful of how much you buy of what...

Some of these are added to our mix and not in large % of the total.. Just don't get too heavy in an area because of it's return...

You may buy it for the return, but balance it out ...

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 12:37 PM

well, i am not buying anything yet... actually trying to research what I've already bought, for comparison on whether or not i want to sell it or not to get something else.

I dont own any KMP, and not sure that i will, but i wanted to just use that as an example.

I am trying to "document" what has been previously mentioned for the last 5 and 10 years for each stock:
1. Div %
2. Growth %
3. Total Return
4. Dividends gone up or down?
5. Sector
6. Expense (if any (ie. ETFs)

Then, compare those to the sectors of what i want to be in, and see what i need to diversify.

Like mentioned previously, I want to spread things "even", and keep around 5% of total investment amount in any "one" stock. and want to end up with a half dozen/dozen "solid" sector "Best of the breed" stocks that i am comfortable with.

if that makes sense... unless someone has a suggestion on how i should approach it? (newbie here!!!)

pw2006 02-28-2012 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398210)
On a side note, I found a "Total Return Price" chart on ycharts.com (under their "interactive charts tab then check the "% option)

Says for KMP the returns is 75.90% for the past 5 years. That obviously doesnt quite match up with what MorningStar reports. So i feel i am not reviewing it correctly.

Here is what schwab has for total 1/3/5 year returns on KMP.
33%/136%/151%

Schwabs definition is:
The Total Return is the rate of return representing the price appreciation of a stock with cash dividends reinvested on the pay date for the most recent 1, 3 and 5 fiscal years.

I searched the web and most of the results were how to manually calculate returns with dividends, but none were as simple as Schwab.

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pw2006 (Post 398223)
Here is what schwab has for total 1/3/5 year returns on KMP.
33%/136%/151%

Schwabs definition is:
The Total Return is the rate of return representing the price appreciation of a stock with cash dividends reinvested on the pay date for the most recent 1, 3 and 5 fiscal years.

I searched the web and most of the results were how to manually calculate returns with dividends, but none were as simple as Schwab.

Awesome. That gives me a baseline to compare against...

I think i may have found an alternative chart, from stockcharts.com their "Perf chart" shows KMP at ~135% over the last 1100 days (3 yrs), and that matches pretty darn close to Schwab :D

GregWeld 02-28-2012 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398210)
On a side note, I found a "Total Return Price" chart on ycharts.com (under their "interactive charts tab then check the "% option)

Says for KMP the returns is 75.90% for the past 5 years. That obviously doesnt quite match up with what MorningStar reports. So i feel i am not reviewing it correctly.

First --- Total Return for Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) for the last 5 years is
151.3%

3 years = 136.4%

1 year = 33%


Second --- Morningstar is a good website but a bit "overwhelming" and especially for newbs. One of the major reasons I love Schwab -- simplicity.
I'm a simple guy - I like simple - I just want to find the info I need without a bunch of gobbledegook! :D


Third --- Here's a link to an easier to use site for information. YOU will have to put in the trading symbol and hit enter.... and then there's a ton of information down the left hand side... and if you scroll down near the bottom you'll find TOTAL RETURN data. This link will give you KMP data since that's what I entered.


http://www.dividendinvestor.com/?chk...=kmp&submit=GO



Obviously returns are calculated from some "date" for data --- so no two sites will come up with the exact same number unless they use the exact same dates. Not sure what dates this site uses but it doesn't match Schwabs... regardless --- all this kind of info is just used for COMPARISONS really so it's fine.


So this is all kinda fun isn't it?? It's like bench racing - or hunting for horse power - or picking cams or gear ratios. Except it's way way more important!:cheers: :woot:

toy71camaro 02-28-2012 04:52 PM

fun.. and addicting.. haha..

I ended up just finishing signing up for a scwhab account. haha :woot:

you can sign up for a free checking, which includes a free brokerage account. With no minimums (for those other people out there wondering).

GregWeld 02-28-2012 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398214)
well, i am not buying anything yet... actually trying to research what I've already bought, for comparison on whether or not i want to sell it or not to get something else.

I dont own any KMP, and not sure that i will, but i wanted to just use that as an example.

I am trying to "document" what has been previously mentioned for the last 5 and 10 years for each stock:
1. Div %
2. Growth %
3. Total Return
4. Dividends gone up or down?
5. Sector
6. Expense (if any (ie. ETFs)

Then, compare those to the sectors of what i want to be in, and see what i need to diversify.

Like mentioned previously, I want to spread things "even", and keep around 5% of total investment amount in any "one" stock. and want to end up with a half dozen/dozen "solid" sector "Best of the breed" stocks that i am comfortable with.

if that makes sense... unless someone has a suggestion on how i should approach it? (newbie here!!!)


Nothing wrong with this approach. Just make sure that you totally understand the business of the companies you're buying. It really helps when the market is DOWN... and that is when MOST PEOPLE LOOSE THEIR BUTTS -- because they SELL... They sell because they really have no idea what they own or why --- and most have never heard of a dividend or understand it's importance. :thumbsup:

Bucketlist2012 02-28-2012 07:09 PM

One Guy found the importance in the thread I started and came over here for knowledge.


As well as he was everywhere online trying to learn..Excellent..

But one guy...You would think more would see the importance of what is being talked about.

MoparCar 02-28-2012 08:03 PM

I for one find great importance in this thread. I've watched it from the beginning and learn from it everyday since I am a total investing newbie.

Also, many/most of the online brokerage firms (Schwab, TDAmeritrade, OptionsXpress which is now part of the Schwab group, etc.) have educational sections that have webinairs, videos and other free educational items to help explain the basics of financials, charts, etc. Of course you can get way too overwhelmed in the "trader" items but if you stick to the basics it really does help educate on the whys of financials to help analyze the stocks, dividends and all the terms thrown around. I agree with Greg's comments awhile back---that the overall financial "experts" want to have all this confusion, smoke and mirrors so we feel the need to only use their mutual funds, counseling, etc. In reality some of these videos, etc. really break things down to the basics which have really helped me start to understand the whys and hows of all the reports and charts for researching the companies I want to get to know.

Another thing is some of these brokerages also have free Virtual Trading if you are a little scared to invest yet, want to look at the what if's or lack the initial funds. You can check your virtual investments in real time to see where they are with the market and can at least see the returns that can be had. Then when you are ready to pull the trigger you know what you'll be basically getting into.

Thanks for all the education and please keep it coming!
Wes

GregWeld 02-28-2012 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoparCar (Post 398338)
I for one find great importance in this thread. I've watched it from the beginning and learn from it everyday since I am a total investing newbie.

Also, many/most of the online brokerage firms (Schwab, TDAmeritrade, OptionsXpress which is now part of the Schwab group, etc.) have educational sections that have webinairs, videos and other free educational items to help explain the basics of financials, charts, etc. Of course you can get way too overwhelmed in the "trader" items but if you stick to the basics it really does help educate on the whys of financials to help analyze the stocks, dividends and all the terms thrown around. I agree with Greg's comments awhile back---that the overall financial "experts" want to have all this confusion, smoke and mirrors so we feel the need to only use their mutual funds, counseling, etc. In reality some of these videos, etc. really break things down to the basics which have really helped me start to understand the whys and hows of all the reports and charts for researching the companies I want to get to know.

Another thing is some of these brokerages also have free Virtual Trading if you are a little scared to invest yet, want to look at the what if's or lack the initial funds. You can check your virtual investments in real time to see where they are with the market and can at least see the returns that can be had. Then when you are ready to pull the trigger you know what you'll be basically getting into.

Thanks for all the education and please keep it coming!
Wes


Wes --- Thank goodness someone is reading and posting too! I get tired of just reading my own stuff -- or Mikes...

I'm personally really satisfied that people are checking their financial health -- and are at least willing to look into some of this stuff. It really isn't very hard or complicated (unless you choose to make it that way) and is fun in it's own way.

:lateral: :cheers:

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 398349)
Wes --- Thank goodness someone is reading and posting too! I get tired of just reading my own stuff -- or Mikes...

I'm personally really satisfied that people are checking their financial health -- and are at least willing to look into some of this stuff. It really isn't very hard or complicated (unless you choose to make it that way) and is fun in it's own way.

:lateral: :cheers:

LMAO...I am sure Greg is tired of my posts :willy: :willy:

But I am stubborn, and patient... I will still be here..

I am glad some are really digging in and putting in the time to learn..

Others will think you are strange, and why bother...they are the one's to not listen to...They have given up, or got burned doing the wrong things with no studying, and they will never invest..Or never invest again..

I still hear talk of the mattress and leaving it in the bank...Inflation will crush them..If it has not already..

I watched this thread for weeks before chiming in with my long winded babble... but the new , smart, hungry additions to the thread add life blood..

Flash68 02-29-2012 01:08 AM

It's great to see on such a generally "financially wasteful" site like a car forum that many are taking to this and running with it, or using it get their financial house back in order.

This thread is the anti-thread on Lat G. :thumbsup: :D


I'll throw something out there... I have been wanting to get into some AAPL but have been waiting for a pullback recently. This article gives me some technical support behind my waiting which I thought some might find interesting. Basically I am waiting for the next scheduled 12% pullback to buy in (see chart within article). :D

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3955..._article&ifp=0

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 08:55 AM

the anti thread
 
Some of us know that the anti thread will fund more than just the race cars...

No help on the apple buy, but someone will chime in soon..

Funny how i forget i am on a car site... Oh ya..check out some cars whlie i am here,haha:willy: :thumbsup:

GregWeld 02-29-2012 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flash68 (Post 398403)
It's great to see on such a generally "financially wasteful" site like a car forum that many are taking to this and running with it, or using it get their financial house back in order.

This thread is the anti-thread on Lat G. :thumbsup: :D


I'll throw something out there... I have been wanting to get into some AAPL but have been waiting for a pullback recently. This article gives me some technical support behind my waiting which I thought some might find interesting. Basically I am waiting for the next scheduled 12% pullback to buy in (see chart within article). :D

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3955..._article&ifp=0

While you're WAITING -- the market is moving relentlessly ahead leaving you behind.

There's an old saying - "Don't fight the FED"... which means ya got to join 'em... and they (the FED) has vowed to keep interest rates low...

Next oldest saying... "when interest rates die (stay low) stocks will fly".

See how the two are linked?

Get into Apple before you miss out on the next $50 move. Or move on and get into something else that you "trust". Never ever never ever buy a stock that scares you to own. Doing so will insure that you'll be what's known on Wall Street as a "weak hand" (play poker? You'll know what betting with a weak hand does to you). This should have been in the first post on this thread.

I have pounded the table over and over about owning stocks you know and understand... and owing best of breed... and being able to hold these stocks during down periods. You have to be comfortable living in your own skin so to speak.... or you get your ass handed to you.

So here's the scenario.... You buy Apple EXPECTING it to go to $600.... You're in at $550... Suddenly something in the news affects the market and Apple (and the whole market) pull back... and now it's trading at $475. You freak out and sell.

I laugh my ass off while buying your sell... and the week after you sell - Apple announces sales and record profits and 3 new products and jumps right back to $550 and the week after that trades to $600.

I'm only using APPLE as an example here. I own NO shares in the company. The INVESTING 102 point is --- don't buy something you don't want to own long term - believe in long term - and can afford to hold long term. This ain't GAMBLING -- it's INVESTING.

Ask yourself if you truly believe that this company can grow from here... can they continue to be best of breed... can they gain market share...

If not -- then you're just being a "momentum" player and momentum players operate quickly and get in and out of stocks for a $1 share gain... They don't care about the company - they just care about which way the stock is going that they own for this 15 seconds.

So -- go to the mall -- stand in front of an Apple store for an hour.... do you like what you see? Is this a company you want to own?

Now -- Let's use INVESTING 102 -- for another "lesson" (I hate calling it that).

$550 per share... if it goes to $600 you'd be UP 10%. Wonderful.

I get 13% in CASH on my Annaly (NLY) shares... regardless of whether or not the share price goes up or down. I get 14% on my Chesapeake (CHKR) shares... I get 8% on HYG (corporate bond etf)... GOOD MARKET OR BAD I GET THOSE RETURNS.

This is why I say - when it comes to investing -- you have CHOICES for what you want to do with your money.

If you have 100 grand invested in good solid stuff and want to play the pure growth of a stock like Apple -- I'd buy it in a heartbeat... but if this is most of your investment money -- or half of it then it's not where I personally would be. If you have a spare 10 or 50 grand that you can just go toss in the street and you want to just park some money and HOPE it's going to go up... then that's the kind of money I'd use for these kinds of buys. Again - just using Apple as an example --- cause it's just one of many. But I'd sure put money in Apple before anything else...

GregWeld 02-29-2012 10:08 AM

A NOTE OF CAUTION SHOULD BE POSTED - By ME!


Remember that I always use "examples" -- real life they might be -- but I also want to poke everyone reading -- that what I do -- is not what you should do!

I pay attention to my investments. I have several accounts - each with at least a VP or SVP adding their input/guidance/headsup. You get that "treatment" even at Schwab if you have enough in your account. So what I'm saying here is --- that when I post up the returns on some of these "names".... I will be long gone if I even WHIFF an interest rate increase. High yields are RISKY! They carry the risk of a tax change from Congress.... they carry risk if the FED signals that the economy is going well and they're going to raise the rates... Trust me -- when they do this -- there will be a big haircut in your capital!

So unless you're on top of your game... I'd stay out of the NLY's - the JNK's - the HYG's of the world. They might be crazy good right now... but these are not names you buy and hold forever. They don't actually even make anything! They're just "yielders" - financial instruments that spin off outsized dividends (right now).

So the caveat is --- Nobody is going to wake up in the morning and ride a horse through town yelling "the FED IS RAISING RATES".... and by the time many of you would figure this out -- it'll be too late you'll already have the haircut.

I'm not saying that I'll be any better at reading this - or be that far ahead of the curve. But I have 30 years of "experience" and pay attention to every nuance EVERY DAY -- Day in and day out. It's my job to keep my "employees" sharp and out of harms way. I'm going to ASSume that many of you will carry on your life and NOT be as attuned to the market and might fall into complacent investing (as some WERE before getting this thread!). You don't want to be falling asleep! This is why it's so important that not only are you getting a decent yield -- but that the UNDERLYING COMPANY is where you want to be.

Sieg 02-29-2012 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 398474)
A NOTE OF CAUTION SHOULD BE POSTED - By ME!

(Pssst, he's the guy that sold Apple for $410 a few months back)

:rofl: :rofl:


Of course I'm the guy (idiot) that sold 100 shares of Nike at $10 after I'd doubled my money back in 1978. :goofy:

bdahlg68 02-29-2012 10:35 AM

Another reason for averaging into the market in general. I know this has been mentioned, but not sure any ideas for accomplishing this have been proposed. Obviously, the more money you are working with, the easier it is. For those with a pretty small amount (say $10,000), you may buy $1,000 - $2,000 of a certain stock and wait a month before buying another stock instead of buying say $400 of 5 stocks each month. This would cause your commisions alone to put you into a relatively substantial hole.

In general, if you can break up the "entry" into 4-5 chunks over around 6 months, you are likely to provide yourself a bit of downside protection in capital value. We are likely to have a bit of a volatile year. Think about the things going on and the risk / opportunity they put into the market. Note that volatility can be good!

EU liquidity
Potential for conflict between Isreal / Iran, Iran sanctions
Easing in Emerging Markets
US Election year

I heard as part of the Michigan primary yesterday that essentially all wealthy republicans are voting for Romney. Thinking about if Romney isn't elected, are these people going to move some of their investments into cash?

Lots of things to consider, think about, and occasionally.... worry about!

NOVA 02-29-2012 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 398457)
While you're WAITING -- the market is moving relentlessly ahead leaving you behind.

There's an old saying - "Don't fight the FED"... which means ya got to join 'em... and they (the FED) has vowed to keep interest rates low...

Next oldest saying... "when interest rates die (stay low) stocks will fly".

See how the two are linked?

Get into Apple before you miss out on the next $50 move. Or move on and get into something else that you "trust". Never ever never ever buy a stock that scares you to own. ...

Greg, First I truly commend you and all the others that have contributed to this thread, simply awesome and the discussion is very easy to understand, I wanted to comment on Apple, my 401K is switching out one fund and adding (Ticker PRWAX - T.Rowe New America Growth) there biggest holding is Apple, then Google, it is going to be available to us March 22nd, I knew that I was going to get in, this just confirmed it. (now I have not decided how much just yet, but I am putting some in for sure!)

My 401K is very similar to others we can only pick funds that are in there (we have about 12 choices of Large, Medium, Small caps, a bond fund and a basic money market fund) but I check them and I try and make sure I am in the ones I feel are the best for me, I have about 25 years until retirement so my risk level is higher then someone who is 5 years away from retirement.

Thanks again Greg (and WSSix for starting this thread) for putting your time into this thread and educating us on this subject it is truly very rewarding and interesting, I check it daily!

Sieg 02-29-2012 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdahlg68 (Post 398482)
Lots of things to consider, think about, and occasionally.... worry about!

Appears the market hasn't responded too well to Bernanke's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House this morning. One big event or a couple small ones in succession could trigger a slide. We're definitely treading on thin ice IMO. Be ready to counter-steer and keep your 6 covered people. :thumbsup:

GregWeld 02-29-2012 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sieg (Post 398476)
(Pssst, he's the guy that sold Apple for $410 a few months back)

:rofl: :rofl:


Of course I'm the guy (idiot) that sold 100 shares of Nike at $10 after I'd doubled my money back in 1978. :goofy:



Do as I say - not as I do!

:rofl:


Remember I have been brutally honest about how I've used Apple --- "to park cash".... ditto HYG and NLY and similar. I'm a whore when it comes to those names. I'm also 'moving' a million or two into and out of these names - so the "risk reward" scenario is QUITE DIFFERENT for me than for someone that is trying to INVEST their 401 or ROTH retirement funds.

This is why I re-read my post about Apple (AAPL) and thought --- OH NO! I just mentioned some risky stuff and people will pile into them and not understand the differences --- and the lessons!

I hate to use specific names -- but it's the only way I can come up with to get some points across.

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 11:13 AM

This is getting good..

I live life at the moment, but I buy investments that I am looking at 10 years from now...Where will it be ??

This is Investing and not trading.

And yes, when you do have enough money, you get even better treatment at Schwab.

I never Lie...I get advise...I make the final call and they tell me it is MY call , to Cover their rears..We have meetings..But there is no finger on the button, haha...

I have the best Muscle car shop work on my car IMHO, Ihave the best attorney around IMHO, why would i not get some advise with the thing that funds EVERYTHING.. I do.

I am not in and out and I have the merit badges from 2008, and 2011 to prove it...I made Eagle Scout..I held, and i bought...Last year I roped myself to the tree and rode the crazy days...

Point is research, action, long term visions, guidance in these crazy times..No listening to the noise..they run around like a mosh pit at a heavy metal concert..madness..stupidity..

Up and down goes the balance, but in the end, it is up, and I have SPENT another years worth of money, and my NET worth is higher, or it has stayed even at worst...:cheers:

I don't have Greg weld skills, but give me more time...:cheers:

Sieg 02-29-2012 11:28 AM

All poking aside - Greg..........you're awesome. :hail:

Barney Frank on the other hand...........

GregWeld 02-29-2012 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NOVA (Post 398484)
Greg, First I truly commend you and all the others that have contributed to this thread, simply awesome and the discussion is very easy to understand, I wanted to comment on Apple, my 401K is switching out one fund and adding (Ticker PRWAX - T.Rowe New America Growth) there biggest holding is Apple, then Google, it is going to be available to us March 22nd, I knew that I was going to get in, this just confirmed it. (now I have not decided how much just yet, but I am putting some in for sure!)

My 401K is very similar to others we can only pick funds that are in there (we have about 12 choices of Large, Medium, Small caps, a bond fund and a basic money market fund) but I check them and I try and make sure I am in the ones I feel are the best for me, I have about 25 years until retirement so my risk level is higher then someone who is 5 years away from retirement.

Thanks again Greg (and WSSix for starting this thread) for putting your time into this thread and educating us on this subject it is truly very rewarding and interesting, I check it daily!


Appreciate the fact that YOU appreciate this thread! :thumbsup:


Remember -- BALANCE.... Your AGE should have you in more "risk"... you have a very long time on your side. Remember that just because you retire in 25 years -- you don't DIE in 25 years! You're not going to suddenly stop all your investments and draw down every dime to cash. You're going to live another 20 years -- so your time horizon is FAR longer than most think!

You can not separate RISK from GROWTH.... You can however, balance your risk / growth scenario with compounded dividends... some steady eddies.. etc. No bonds at your age -- ZERO.

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sieg (Post 398500)
All poking aside - Greg..........you're awesome. :hail:

Barney Frank on the other hand...........

I agree..:thumbsup: :thumbsup:


An edit to my post would be although i am looking long term of where the investment will be long term, i do look at the medium term trends set by policies, feds, ect... But i am not with my finger on the trigger..It is more thought out than that... Things changing overnight are not the concern, as much as the longer term..

Greg, you are the Man...:cheers: The thread Gorilla Glue...:lateral:

GregWeld 02-29-2012 03:28 PM

:faint: :faint:


Okay --- so I had this crazy thought for the newbs this morning. We were discussing interest rates and the FED etc...


This is investing 102 (wasn't 102 a cheap beer years ago??) so let me paint an "interest rate rising" scenario for you.


Here's how you pay attention and react in a MACRO (large picture) environment:


You're in a movie theatre - packed full of people.... you're looking around and checking everyone out and making your judgements about them (don't BS me - we all do this).... and in the corner you notice a 4 year old... no parents around.... no big sister. You also notice that nearby (him) on the stage there's a book of matches... If you're me -- I now keep an eye on this little monkey... I'm not afraid of him... I just know what a 4 year old could/can do with a book of matches.

Now.... I'm still looking around and waiting for the movie to start - a movie I've waited for 6 months to see.... This is when I notice the little monkey making his move to the matches...

Do you wait for him to strike the match before you get up and depart? Heck no! I know exactly what is going to happen when he lights them up! Panic! F-I-R-E!!! and everyone is running for the exits.

Nope -- If I even THINK the little monkey sees those matches -- I'm outta there! I'll stand by the door - and wait to see if a parent is also watching and kicks his sorry little butt... then I'll re-take my seat.


SO......... If the matches are INTEREST RATES.... and the little MONKEY is the FED/CONGRESS.... I'm keeping my eye on them! I'm not going to be out of the market because the minute you make that move -- the market will shoot up 10 points and you'll have missed the move. My point is to KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN... don't bury your head in the sand and hope everything works out for you! Be proactive. Proactive doesn't mean ACTION -- it means staying alert and understanding the relationships (the boy near the matches - doesn't mean he's going to do anything with them - but you KNOW what happens IF he gets his hands on them).

SO if YOU can look around your little piece of the world -- and things are looking up -- the company you work at just hired 10 more guys -- and you're working overtime... and prices of cars at Barrett Jackson just exploded to the upside... and there's less talk about all the houses in your neighborhood for sale... and you're lazy ass sister in law just got a job... DUDE! It's time to start rethinking your high yielding stocks -- 'cause if YOU can see this -- then so does the FED and they'll raise interest rates.

Now there's TWO ways to think this game through! If things are getting that much better! Then sales should also be better... housing picking up - so too will appliances and car sales - which means raw steel and aluminum will start to rise (and copper)... and Caterpillar will sell more backhoes and dozers... So what you do when all this is booming through your little pea brain -- is you start to move those directions. Lighten up (scaling out) of the crazy high yields... and start to move into (scaling into) the areas of the market that will BENEFIT from a booming (or far better) economy. Home builders - banks (lending!) - machine makers (CAT and Cummings) etc. This is why they call them WHAT?? CYCLICALS -- because that's where they are - they cycle up and down good times and bad. Out of them (early) in bad times - (in early) in good times.

Ya don't sell everything and panic and run for the exits.... ya just stay fluid... keeping your ears open... try to hear the winds rustle... before everyone else.

To me it's like house flipping. By the time the grocery store clerk is telling you about the 400K they made flipping a house -- it's just about to come crashing down!

So listen to your instincts... DO YOU see that things are getting better? Interest rates are NOT going DOWN from here... there's no room left at the bottom -- so they're either holding steady or they're going to HAVE TO go up from here... it's just for you to be ahead of that curve. Nobody has a crystal ball. I'm going to make money as long as I possibly can in my current holdings - but I'm also paying attention to the details.

GregWeld 02-29-2012 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sieg (Post 398476)
(Pssst, he's the guy that sold Apple for $410 a few months back)

:rofl: :rofl:


Of course I'm the guy (idiot) that sold 100 shares of Nike at $10 after I'd doubled my money back in 1978. :goofy:

Did I ever mention that I got to buy into the Starbucks IPO at IPO insider price? Yep -- bought 1000 shares at $17.00

That was on like Thursday or a Friday.... by Monday they went up THREE FIFTY ($21.50) and I sold the whole enchilada! Wow! I thought to myself -- I just scammed those poor suckers for a quick THIRTY FIVE HUNDRED BUCKS!! I'm a frigging GENIUS!


Oh -- Total return on Starbucks.... since it went IPO.....



TWENTY THOUSAND PERCENT. That's right... 20,000% since 1992


Yeah -- I'm a real genius!:faint:

toy71camaro 02-29-2012 03:53 PM

very good point.... i was "wondering" what to think about that situation. That helps. :thumbsup:

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 03:59 PM

To Greg's point..

I am in position to make money no matter which way the winds blow.

You bet i am keeping an eye on the little monkey, but I will make money...

If things go as they say, I am not so sure about that, but if they do, Oh happier days for me...:woot:

But if something goes sideways, I am ready for that too..I won't have to make any sudden moves, I am just in a position of not "all or nothing', too much risk in all or nothing .. so a move one way or another will not stray my path..

GregWeld 02-29-2012 04:18 PM

Now that I just sat down and paid all my bills... which is another key to investing... i.e., GET IN CONTROL OF YOUR SPENDING. Make money FIRST - then you'll have some to spend!

Yeah - I know - easy for me to say.

Not the reason for this post though.....


My BOND broker called this morning -- mostly because we're friends (and have been for a very long time) but also because he was "pinging me" on any "new" money I might have for him to invest.

Fred has been in the biz for 40 years! I trust him - he's a great person - I know his family - He works for (an SVP) a big local brokerage (I will NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS GIVE AN INDIVIDUAL CONTROL OF MY MONEY OR MY ACCOUNTS --- NEVER! EVER! NEVER!)

We discussed "bonds" and the market and I said I'm NOT buying any more bonds, that I have enough of my investable assets in bonds and that's plenty (for me) and that I'm kicking his sorry ass in the "market"... He says to me -- and here's the SALESMAN/BROKER talking --- Well -- you've made 4% gain on your bonds!

NO -- I remind him -- I have NOT made 4% on my bonds because the entire reason to own them is for the TAX FREE INCOME -- and that I'm HOLDING TO MATURITY.... therefore -- I will have held them for 5 years (laddered so actually this is not factual but for the furthest dated ones it is) and only get my money back! NO GAIN.... because I would have had to SELL THEM to capture the current gain. SO his salesman part overrode his BRAIN... and I'm not afraid to call him on it.

It's why I don't use brokers (except for this part of my holdings).... even if they're your friend... in the end, their wallet is more important than your wallet! They're trying to make money on my money... I'm just not willing to let them! :woot:

Sieg 02-29-2012 05:09 PM

Atta Boy Tiger!

GregWeld 02-29-2012 10:20 PM

Here's another reason I love that good old dividend stream...

My account (the one I use for examples here) was DOWN 17 Grand today --- but after the closing bell ---- Terra Nitrogen (TNH) sent me a nice little check for NINE GRAND....

Part of the reason I was down 17K today was because TNH was trading off... ALL stocks trade down near equally to what they pay out in a dividend. We've touched on this earlier... but that's just the way it works. Obviously the company can't be worth as much when they're paying out... But that dividend was $4.53 per share today (I own 2000 shares) and the stock was "only" down at the close $2.73 == so I'm happy with that!!

This stock ain't for the faint of heart I can tell ya! It goes bonkers - it goes down double bonkers - next time you look it's up triple bonkers.... I'm telling ya it's a wild one!


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