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GregWeld 02-29-2012 10:39 PM

Okay -- I'm on a roll tonight --

Here's a good article on Warren Buffet - and dividend investing. We'll have a test to see who reads this -- because there's a really interesting little tidbit in here about the dividends Berkshire gets...Amazing really! When you think about it... let's see if you guys find it as amazing as I did!

http://www.fool.com/investing/divide...arent-you.aspx

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 11:06 PM

Hey I was just checking in...

I knew i was going to get hammered today...

I did. Oh well...

I will check for Dividends because it is that time for them to come in..

That is another reason i only give direction and not specific assets, because some would have bought, lost their shirts, sold and been mad...

But not if they read the thread completely...Some read what they want to hear...

Great job on the dividend check...Sweet.:cheers:

Well i checked...600 dollars in dividends so far....I would like to say more, but not yet...Should be another 2000 grand coming in soon..

But yes, I did not even watch today that much....I knew it, and just did my regular schedule....but I am sure some people got rattled...

Bucketlist2012 02-29-2012 11:19 PM

One third of it's investment back, every year....

In Nine years , it will be getting it's original investment back EVERY year.

I almost picked up some BRK A at 86,000 back in 2009... I thought better to diversify more...

But I always wonder about that 86,000 buy...

CRCRFT78 03-01-2012 01:03 AM

Wow to get back 1/3 of his investment in dividends and then to eventually get back his initial investment in dividends every year is great. Coke has managed to consistently raise their dividend output by an average of 12% a year. That is definitely a stock to look at and study. It also gets you thinking that even though some stocks seem to be good solid picks, you've got to be able to think outside the box. Just understanding the affects of cyclical vs non-cyclical can have a major affect on your portfolio growth.

70 chevelle 03-01-2012 06:36 AM

Greg some pages back you mentioned looking up upcoming ex dates on seeking alpha. I have scoured that site trying to find that info. Would you mind posting a link to that ?

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 07:16 AM

Great article, totally re-iterates what's been said here...

long term, growth staple companies who pay decent dividends.

i think i heard that before some where? :lateral: :woot:

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 07:29 AM

Ok, here is one i'd like to open for discussion....

Pepsi Vs Coke. (the grand ole debate) but not about flavor! hah

Looking at their current info, they are nearly the same price, dividend is +0.35% in Pepsi's favor.

Total return:
Pep: 3.6%/34.3%/12.6%
KO: 12.4%/87.7%/73.3%

So, going out to the 5yr mark, looks like Coke is the clear total growth winner... but, looking at the 10 yr mark (which, i dont see Schwab has that graph):

Since 1999:
Pep: 87%
KO: 28.7%

The 10 yr charts between the two show that Coke had a very rough patch from 2000 to 2010 when they finally "broke" above their 1999 price.

That seems to me, that PEP, while doesnt have the current growth KO has over the past 5 years, they seem to be much more stable, and more "heading in the right direction".

Whats the census say?

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 07:40 AM

I guess... to somewhat answer my own question...

Perhaps Coke would be "better buy"... for those handful of years, we got our dividends still, and were purchasing shares at a discount. Eventually it "came back up", and now we have more shares when it came around = more money in our account.

then, the next question to answer (myself, not meaning you guys)... is to try and guess which one is going to be the "better guy" the next 10, 20 years.

Both being fairly solid in the past (PEP being a bit more "stable", but, stable can also = less shares = less money), they'll probably end up nearly the same in the end. hah. :D

GregWeld 03-01-2012 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398703)
I guess... to somewhat answer my own question...

Perhaps Coke would be "better buy"... for those handful of years, we got our dividends still, and were purchasing shares at a discount. Eventually it "came back up", and now we have more shares when it came around = more money in our account.

then, the next question to answer (myself, not meaning you guys)... is to try and guess which one is going to be the "better guy" the next 10, 20 years.

Both being fairly solid in the past (PEP being a bit more "stable", but, stable can also = less shares = less money), they'll probably end up nearly the same in the end. hah. :D


These kinds of questions are the constant struggle in "investing".... and they really have no answer because nobody has the crystal ball. We can study numbers 'til our brains run out our ears... but that is all in the past.

SO -- I've said it here before. When it comes down to this... PICK THE ONE YOU LIKE. Do ya drink Coke or Pepsi? Choose one. If you have the dough - put some in BOTH. Cause you're not going to be far off the mark with either one IMHO.

Remember that we can manipulate numbers in any way we want... which period of time... EBITDA... P/E.... and blah blah blah. The important lessons of Investing 102 are -- DO SOMETHING... and if that something includes some basic research -- which you just did (and showed it here)... then the final "right answer" is to pick the stock that YOU want to own and feel good about.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 08:11 AM

Personally I own 3000 shares of Coke (KO).... I don't drink either brand - I'm a coffee freak. LOL

When I looked at all the numbers - I just like the Coke brand. No right or wrong choice here. And basically what you're buying here is a steady eddy.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 70 chevelle (Post 398685)
Greg some pages back you mentioned looking up upcoming ex dates on seeking alpha. I have scoured that site trying to find that info. Would you mind posting a link to that ?

Here's an easier site to work with for that.


http://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php


Seeking Alpha is good "reading" but is kind of a loosely structured bunch of people just writing articles vs a "here's this in this spot always - day in and day out" kind of website. I find good stuff to read and tickle my pea brain on Seeking Alpha... but it's not really a research website.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solarguy09 (Post 398658)
One third of it's investment back, every year....
In Nine years , it will be getting it's original investment back EVERY year.



Isn't that amazing!! It blows my mind. That is over a long hold period of course.. but it shows the power of dividend investing. Ya think Warren cares what the daily stock price is?

So if you were 30 years old - and had bought Coke (KO) and you're now 60 and close to retirement - you'd be getting your original investment back every year in dividends.

CRCRFT78 03-01-2012 08:27 AM

Just my take on the KO vs. PEP debate. I ended up going with Pepsi but I also plan to invest in Coke. Although the numbers are comparable and close I liked the fact that Pepsi also has a hand in the snack food business. Most people will buy a snack to go with their soda when they are on the go. Hopefully that snack company is owned by Pepsi when doing so. I felt that was just another aspect of their business model that could possibly help the stock when soda sales sit idle. I worked in the beverage industry for 8 years and remembered what it was like when I saw salesman supplement their lack of soda sales with other company owned products.

Right or wrong, it got me to think outside the box and look at Pepsi as more than a soda company and consider what may or may not help the business during down times. Not to say that Coke couldn't do the same, it was just another factor to consider along with all the charts.

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 08:48 AM

Awesome guys.. Thanks for the tips..

I know there wasnt necessarily a "right or wrong" answer.. thats not really what i was aiming for...

I was more trying to just compare apples to apples, and see what other "strategies" people might come up with to base their purchases on... Greg pointed out one "buy what you like" (and yes, i didnt put it, but I'm a PEP drinker when i do drink soda, so i would of likely went that way regardless)... but i also wanted to see any other ideas... Such as CRCRFT78 mentioned, thiking "outside" the box, and that PEP is also involved in more things than just "soda". Thanks for pointing that out, I didnt think to consider that. :thumbsup:

Another mental note for me.. aside from the "bulk of the business, consider what "else" they "do" that could supplement their business". perhaps thats why PEP didnt have the large dip that coke had. Soda may have slowed, but snacks may have picked up, and vice versa.

I love "thinking out loud" like this.. sorry if i seem to babble a lot. LOL

Bucketlist2012 03-01-2012 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 398713)
Isn't that amazing!! It blows my mind. That is over a long hold period of course.. but it shows the power of dividend investing. Ya think Warren cares what the daily stock price is?

So if you were 30 years old - and had bought Coke (KO) and you're now 60 and close to retirement - you'd be getting your original investment back every year in dividends.

Yes..I am going into the family room now to blow my wife's mind...She loves money talk and the strategies we are using...Who benefits most ??? Her..:thumbsup:

GregWeld 03-01-2012 09:02 AM

Well -- You guys got me digging around and I see a couple of things... and this is just open mike time -- not a "you should buy X because". This ain't how 102 should work -- it's about thinking and digging for info and doing the "work" so this is a perfect discussion.

When I OVERLAY PEP on KO chart -- they trade "share price wise" in near lockstep....

The 5 year SHARE growth is KO - 47% and PEP at DOWN 3%

10 year KO - up 44% PEP up 22%

That is SHARE PRICE not total return.

KO TOTAL RETURN --- 1 yr 12.4% 3 yr 87.7% 5 yr 73.3%


PEP TOTAL RETURN --- 1 yr 3.6% 3 yr 34.3% 5 yr 12.6%


Now -- I took my own advice and went back to look at all the info of why I chose Coke over Pepsi.... and this is exactly what this thread should be trying to do -- get people THINKING about all this stuff! I love it!!

:woot:

CRCRFT78 03-01-2012 09:10 AM

I also thought to myself that I felt Pepsi had room for growth. Coke has the better looking chart over the various periods of time but I wondered if it reached a point where it may sit idle with a slower growth rate while Pepsi could possibly make a jump in growth. Will it happen? Who knows, but again, I was trying to think outside the box. Either way, I believe you can't go wrong investing in either of the two. Both will be around for the long haul and both will continue to be steady earners, its all a matter of choice.

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 10:25 AM

I cant tell for sure... Im having a tough time getting a chart to show exactly what i want (graph of share price. seems most show growth when comparing two stocks)...

anyhow, it seems as if they two counter each other, as in, if PEP is doing WELL, KO isn't so well, then, a year or two later KO catches up, surpasses PEP, an PEP takes a little "hiatus" for a couple years, then catches back up and surpasses KO, KO takes a little hiatus and repeats.. lol

in the end, it doesnt matter a ton either way.. but just trying to "figure" how to analyze a pair of stocks to try and help me determine which to purchase... (when, if the above seems true, PEP is on the "slide" it seems, so going that rough may result in a continued slide for a while = more shares for less $. couple years from now it will catch back up to KO), and then vice versa...

again, just thinking out load, using these two companies as an example so i can learn to apply my decision making process to other companies when i review them too. :)

Edit... all in all, i am breaking the rule of investing 102.. im comparing "timing" of the buy, which isnt as important as JUST BUYING ONE. lol

GregWeld 03-01-2012 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CRCRFT78 (Post 398732)
Either way, I believe you can't go wrong investing in either of the two. Both will be around for the long haul and both will continue to be steady earners, its all a matter of choice.


Personally -- I think that's the most correct statement when comparing these two. Pick one - or pick both - you're reasonably assured that either is a good investment over the long haul.

:thumbsup:

CRCRFT78 03-01-2012 10:41 AM

What you want to remember also is what has been repeated throughout this thread. When the market starts to dip, a lot of investors will panic and sell. That's when you want to buy more. Pepsi/Coke are not here today/gone tomorrow companies. They will take their hits but will continue to move in the right direction. Steady eddies as Greg would say.

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 10:46 AM

Right.. i was just trying better understand the "comparison" process, so i could apply it to the rest of what i compare. I actually picked those two simply because of the article posted yesterday was talking about KO.

Thanks again for just letting me "spill out" my thought/reasoning process. LOL.:lol:



BTW, Greg... How's Bellevue doing? I was up there once as a kid (early 90's). My dads uncle was a VP or some sort of "higher up" at the Bellevue Square Mall. We went and stayed with him for a few days for a visit. :thumbsup: Nice place up there.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398747)
Edit... all in all, i am breaking the rule of investing 102.. im comparing "timing" of the buy, which isnt as important as JUST BUYING ONE. lol


Albert -- You are doing what this thread has been trying to get people to do... just compare -- think about them (any company) -- scale in if at all possible... and you're not really "timing" the market by seeing that a company may temporarily be down while the other is up... What you need to do when you see something like that is to try to figure out WHY that is so. Dig a little deeper... Google some news -- go back a bit and try to see if there was an "earnings miss" -- or a takeover of another company that has temporarily got the company off track... Try to FIND something that may explain the "issue". Some times you'll find nothing -- and sometimes you'll learn something that makes you like the company even more. In the end -- you're buying a piece of the company and the management - and the products they make.... and you need to feel good about that choice.

If 10 years from now -- you're only up 67% vs the other company up 85%... you really didn't make a "mistake"... and if during that 10 year period there was a point in which the companies were trading down -- and you held your position because you were comfortable owning it.. then that is what really matters.

We're preaching DIVERSITY as well here -- this is just ONE pick out of the 10 plus companies you're going to choose.... If you were at the horse races and you're picks finished 1st -- 3rd -- and 4th... you're still a winner.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398754)
Right.. i was just trying better understand the "comparison" process, so i could apply it to the rest of what i compare. I actually picked those two simply because of the article posted yesterday was talking about KO.

Thanks again for just letting me "spill out" my thought/reasoning process. LOL.:lol:



BTW, Greg... How's Bellevue doing? I was up there once as a kid (early 90's). My dads uncle was a VP or some sort of "higher up" at the Bellevue Square Mall. We went and stayed with him for a few days for a visit. :thumbsup: Nice place up there.

#1 -- You're doing exactly what these forums are designed to do... BS'n with people = like hanging out in the garage together!

Bellevue -- or as I like to call it -- BLAHview.... I've been here since 1984... I used to be able to see Mount Rainer from downtown -- that view has since been hidden behind all the high-rises! Bellevue Square has doubled or tripled and they now have a sky bridge going across the street to Lincoln Center... a whole 'nother shopping bunch of crap. Kemper Freeman Jr basically owns all of downtown... and he's done a real good job of developing it INHO.

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 11:18 AM

ah, sorry you lost your view. lol.

I remember that mall was pretty snazzy. the "skywalk" sounds familiar. it's been so long since ive been there (was probably 12-13 at the time), have a hard time remember some things.

They were "very well off", and i remember my Aunt taking us and "showing us around town" lol.


Anywho, back to investing 102 i suppose ;)

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 11:39 AM

My next "research"... is to figure out the "diversity" aspect of all this.

ie. what sectors for stocks? what about bonds? and the other "options" (not familiar with any of this yet).

which ones to "play now" and which ones to "wait for a change (invest in the "play now group"), and play later", etc.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 03:02 PM

Here's a real life STEADY EDDY "terbacky" (aka: Sin stock) stock... People poo poo stuff like this because they all want to own the big hitters... That, and nobody is talking about the price per share at the grocery store... LOL


I own 6,500 PHILIP MORRIS (PM) @ todays closing price $84.23 for a total of $547,495.00 market value -- My average cost per share is $68.55 for a total investment of $445,564.60 --- So I have an UNREALIZED capital gain of +$101,930.40


My first buy was 2/03/11 @ $57.80 per share

4 more buys at various levels on the way up for a total of SIX buy ins

My last buy was 2/10/12 @ $80.40 per share

The point here is -- I was scaling in -- I don't really care that the price went UP from where I first bought it -- in fact I'M VERY HAPPY it was doing that! It's doing EXACTLY what I want it to do!

My AVERAGE cost is still only $68.55 per share

And I've collected $8,700.00 in dividends along the way....


Again - everyones actual positions are going to be scaled to THEM... I'm just using a real life actual example to show the affects of scaling in.... and that I just INVESTED in a dividend paying stock that is boring to the maximum.... but I'm very happy owning it. I don't really care whether people are smoking or not (I don't and I hate smoking!) --- it's an INVESTMENT I can live with, even if the buyers of the product can't! :lol:

Bucketlist2012 03-01-2012 03:29 PM

Greg...

Thanks for talking with Albert... He seems young, hungry and smart..

He is one of the only people that bit into the thread I started , and seems to be running with it well..

I was foolish enough to almost start another one, but quickly realized that I was not welcome.. Oh well.

So my lesson learned is that i will comment on this thread and no others..

I learned my lesson. Albert will be the one that runs with it. I said if only one person did it... Albert is it..

Thanks for taking the time to help all of us..

No more new threads...:cheers:

Sieg 03-01-2012 03:34 PM

So I just opened another Traditional IRA last night to stuff $2-3K away for five or so years.

Any creative funding suggestions?

Cash.......boring

ETF's

One good Steady Eddie?

I'm tempted to fund it with PM or McD and watch what happens. http://www.desmonorthwest.com/forums...lies/smoke.gif http://www.desmonorthwest.com/forums...s/popcorn2.gif

96z28ss 03-01-2012 04:29 PM

I have a new hatred for mutual funds.

I have 2 401k accounts, one with current employer and one with a previous one that I no longer put money into obviously, so it just sits there. When I say it sits there I REALLY mean it sits there. Its not doing anything.
I'm going to move that account into something I can control and pick what I want and not be limited to a dozen opptions.
The other 401k account is with current employer and I'm putting in $600 a month and its not doing anything. I already sent the CFO a nice email outlining that we need more options, cause the dozen or so options aren't cutting it. Like I told him in the email I'd like to retire some day and not run out of money.

Flash68 03-01-2012 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 96z28ss (Post 398793)
I already sent the CFO a nice email outlining that we need more options, cause the dozen or so options aren't cutting it. Like I told him in the email I'd like to retire some day and not run out of money.

:lol: I bet that goes over well Bob..

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solarguy09 (Post 398782)
Greg...

Thanks for talking with Albert... He seems young, hungry and smart..

He is one of the only people that bit into the thread I started , and seems to be running with it well..

I was foolish enough to almost start another one, but quickly realized that I was not welcome.. Oh well.

So my lesson learned is that i will comment on this thread and no others..

I learned my lesson. Albert will be the one that runs with it. I said if only one person did it... Albert is it..

Thanks for taking the time to help all of us..

No more new threads...:cheers:

I think the problem was, the few interested were looking for answers, not information/knowledge.

oh well. their loss.. hopefully MY GAIN! hahah ;)

GregWeld 03-01-2012 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sieg (Post 398784)
So I just opened another Traditional IRA last night to stuff $2-3K away for five or so years.

Any creative funding suggestions?

Cash.......boring

ETF's

One good Steady Eddie?

I'm tempted to fund it with PM or McD and watch what happens. http://www.desmonorthwest.com/forums...lies/smoke.gif http://www.desmonorthwest.com/forums...s/popcorn2.gif


Too hard to answer that question without more info... use? Term? Age? Other funds? Etc.

If you're well set already - and middle aged -- go for some gusto... if you're an old coot and have no money and lots of debt -- a different response. :woot:

96z28ss 03-01-2012 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flash68 (Post 398794)
:lol: I bet that goes over well Bob..

It went over pretty good. He came to talk to me personally. Then he gave me the pink slip and told me to get out!!
Just kidding we talked for awhile he explained a few things. Basically they aren't changing the investment stuff. So Im going to let it sit there and collect dust.
The one 401k I do have I'm going to roll it over into a IRA and take control of it and make my employees make me some more employees.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398795)
I think the problem was, the few interested were looking for answers, not information/knowledge.

oh well. their loss.. hopefully MY GAIN! hahah ;)

Many many lazy people out there.... and they just don't want to have to do ANY work. That's their problem not ours. :thumbsup:

When we're enjoying our well deserved retirement -- they'll be wondering how to downsize their house - their cars - their lives... to fit with the meager amount of money they have to live on. Sad.

GregWeld 03-01-2012 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 96z28ss (Post 398808)
It went over pretty good. He came to talk to me personally. Then he gave me the pink slip and told me to get out!!
Just kidding we talked for awhile he explained a few things. Basically they aren't changing the investment stuff. So Im going to let it sit there and collect dust.
The one 401k I do have I'm going to roll it over into a IRA and take control of it and make my employees make me some more employees.


Stop contributing to the company 401K and put that same money into a ROTH IRA -- or another 401 that you open. There's no limit on how many you can have... just a limit to how much you can contribute.

As we discussed -- you're going BACKWARDS in the company 401 -- a monkey throwing darts could do better! Even if the company is matching dollar for dollar -- you're going backwards... (and of course they are not!).

sik68 03-01-2012 05:55 PM

If you would oblige, how about a little more Non-Investing 102? A lot has already been said to the effect of paying down debt before investing. My wife is in school, so we're borrowing from the government under their nice ''interest accrues upon disbursement" plans. By the time she graduates, we will have a California-house-sized loan that will even make the numbers Greg is working with look small. :lol: In the meantime, we have a buffer, and are continuing to keep our accounts flat...adding money towards our savings or retirement accounts now will just hurt us later.

Perhaps the experts in here will weigh in more succinctly...


A lot of people say you should attack the loans with the highest APR first. To me, it seems like the mathematically advantageous approach is to pay down the loan with the greatest overall accrual growth.

As an example:
100*5% APR = $5/year
50*8% APR = $4/year
So you pay down the $100 loan until the annual accruals are equal (at $80) then pay them down equally, no?

GregWeld 03-01-2012 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toy71camaro (Post 398760)
They were "very well off", and i remember my Aunt taking us and "showing us around town" lol.



Bellevue is the Beverly Hills of Washington... there are so many high tech companies here... and national headquarters for many really well known companies. When I start to rattle them off for people -- they're blown away...

Microsoft - Amazon - Starbucks - Costco - Paccar (Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks) - Zillow - Expedia - Nordstrom - Alaska Airlines - Nintendo - T Mobile... just to name a couple.

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 06:08 PM

a couple... hahaha... yeah, i do remember it being pretty nice around there!

Bucketlist2012 03-01-2012 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 96z28ss (Post 398793)
I have a new hatred for mutual funds.

I have 2 401k accounts, one with current employer and one with a previous one that I no longer put money into obviously, so it just sits there. When I say it sits there I REALLY mean it sits there. Its not doing anything.
I'm going to move that account into something I can control and pick what I want and not be limited to a dozen opptions.
The other 401k account is with current employer and I'm putting in $600 a month and its not doing anything. I already sent the CFO a nice email outlining that we need more options, cause the dozen or so options aren't cutting it. Like I told him in the email I'd like to retire some day and not run out of money.

Go get em boy...i have an old 401K, and i am getting 10% out of that Dog..

Good Hunting on getting your 401K to at least grow over time... It should be doing well, especially right now...Change that puppy soon...:cheers:

toy71camaro 03-01-2012 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solarguy09 (Post 398816)
Go get em boy...i have an old 401K, and i am getting 10% out of that Dog..

Good Hunting on getting your 401K to at least grow over time... It should be doing well, especially right now...Change that puppy soon...:cheers:

I need to tackle my 401k too. ugh. mutual funds are a whole nother ball game. lol


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