:thumbsup: :woot: :woot:

Regarding the old guy dividends..........that's only 4490 gal. of tow rig fuel. :D

Isn't that what all stocks are? We are speculation that these babies will go UP!

In the last 10 years, things have been quite volatile.. look at the crash of 2008. And now, there is chatter of something like this happening again soo...

Look at this 12 year chart:
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au00-pres.gif

I think Gold/Silver are a good hedge against inflation and protection. But other are seeing it as a 'bubble' like that of the 80's... Who knows. I'm guess all this QE1 2 and 3 and inflation (cost of food and energy) has me leary of jumping into stocks without some sort of hedge like PM's.

^^^^^^^^ Everybody has and is entitled to their own opinion - on anything. That is exactly what makes a market.

My "opinions" posted in this thread are for INVESTING 102 -- and I write with that thinking cap on.

Many reading this thread are just beginning to invest, or are adjusting their investments. To jump into PM's as a hedge or anything else is INHO inappropriate. The levels of investment in something such as gold, to actually hedge against inflation would need to be around 30% of a investable portfolio.
At the levels of most investable funds that are reading this.. that wouldn't be a wise move.

Now -- if you want to hedge against inflation... look at the 10 year chart of McDonalds -- and overlay GLD (a gold ETF) -- and then make a comparison... and the real difference is that MCD paid out real cash on top of the share price growth.

I'm throwing this out there as a "talking point" only. This is how people learn about various investments. My point is that a person would have done just as well in a dividend payer like McDonalds as they would have in Gold...

On a total return basis, gold has had an average annual growth rate of 8.47% (1973-2010), while the S&P 500 TR Index has had an average annual growth rate of 9.84%... so holding gold over the S&P 500... you went behind.

People buy gold when they're scared. I just don't buy into fear. If you listen to the ads touting "buy gold now" - that's exactly what they're pitching.

I eat light!


:willy: :lol:

Gold and Stocks
 

Although I do hold PM,s and I have done very well with them, research shows you can fight Inflation with Stocks..

I have had to take a lot of profit from PM's so i would not get overweight, and I put the money into dividend stocks..

Anyone doing anything out of fear, buying or selling , is wrong, and if you have been "speculating ", or believing things will be a certain way, then I believe it works if you don't dedicate too much of your Portfolio to it..And long may not be as long as you think..

The bulk of the portfolio should be in solid, diversified companies..But I was into metals a while ago, so now we may be going up or we may be taking a hit soon..

I become overly "cautious" when "everyone" is doing something. It was even brought up earlier in this thread that "everyone" is suddenly talking about dividend investing... and that is absolutely true. Many have been dividend investing for years... it's the original "blue haired old lady" investment and this goes back years and years. So it's being "re-discovered" - which can also create a 'bubble'.

I have stayed out of Apple of late... because it's the only thing the talking heads can talk about. That always gives me 'pause'.

Same here Greg! Gold was/is quite poplular and its what lead to the $2000 grand bubble, IMO. So I think the bottom is a good time to buy. It's out of my league, but I do collect silver as a hobby and long term investment/hedge.

However, if anyone wants a lead on stocks, IMHO, invest in those firms that the Federal Reserve bailed out in secret. Partial audits revealed those, and McD's was one of them. With a backer like the Fed, you're sure to win. That's my strategy when I plan to jump in.

Appreciate the convo and insight.

I can agree with that.. I think that perhaps why we seen the stock market go up is partially due to inflation.

That's my only "fear" about being in Gold... is that when all the TV talking heads are speculating about it's next move -- that scares me... and when RETAIL investors think it's a "SURE BET" -- that scares me even more... I've lived through the dot bombers -- the housing bust -- etc and every time everyone was sure that "whatever X" is was going straight up from here (an already lofty level) disaster seemed to be right around the corner.

Of course what we have to do in this thread -- remembering that it's a 102 thread -- is to learn... and we need to learn our risk tolerances... and how not to get scared out of the market -- and I have to remember that many here were of the "invest and forget" mindset...

What I don't want people to do is to change their investments -- and then suddenly get blown out and give up on investing. When you take on risk - getting blown out is part of that game. The game we're trying to play is invest for long term - getting paid - compounding that over time... and winning the game. I want all these guys to be able to enjoy what I (and others here) are enjoying -- which is being comfortably retired and living the good life in their golden years.

I get that same fear Greg. I can't stop hearing ads on TV and radio from brokers wanting to sell you gold. Was just at my dentist's office and he wouldn't stop talking about buying silver right now. I think if you were going to buy it, buy it in coins or whatever you can hold in your hand. I wouldn't feel safe buying some piece of paper that said I owned gold or silver

Real estate (rental property) can also be a good hedge against inflation, provided you buy it before there's any real inflation taking place, like right now. Plus, unlike with gold or silver, it pays you while you wait, you get a tax deduction by depreciation and it's a fixed asset that can't easily go away (provided you pay your property taxes and insurance). You can even make money on the money you borrowed to buy it if you do it right. It can be hard to sell though but if you keep it in good condition when the inevitable boom happens, it shouldn't be too hard to get out of. Last one I sold at pretty much the peak in '06 was under contract in 3 days and I made a killing. The best thing about investing I think is that if you own something that's just experienced a big upturn, there are plenty of knuckleheads waiting in line to buy it before it goes up more.

I'm in the real estate market to buy a house for my son as well as my sister and brother in law... I'll "rent" to them - take the depreciation... and "gift" equity to them over time (26K max gift per year - so 4 years out - they have 100K equity). I'll then sell my share to them if they want to buy... otherwise I still own a rental. On a 700K house I'll put 400K down - finance 300K... I'll pay cash for the house for my sister (I set a 325K max - it's a different market - different amount of 'help')... give them a below market rent and the equity 'gifting'. I plan to amend our estate planning to gift them the house should we pass before they are able to purchase.

Housing is a bargain right now and so is the cost of money. We just missed one in the Portland area that had a separate shop! Dang! I was on the road and they couldn't pull the trigger fast enough... But houses are like buses... there will be another one coming along in 15 minutes or so. :woot:

so.. diving into my 401k now... all mutual fund stuff... and I'm getting confused the deeper i look.. lol...

So, I'll just take one fund here, for sake of understanding...

I look at my "Royce Opportunity" fund. It shows i have aprox a $2500 "Balance" and I have aprox 120 "units" with a Unit Value of 20.251. But when i click on the fund, it brings up the fund details page. Says the ticker is RYPNX.
Ok, all ok so far...

I go to Schwab, lets "dive into this fund"... I pull up RYPNX, it shows its $12.12 a share.. wait, i thought it was 20.251? :_paranoid I take my 120 units multipied by $12.12 and i got barely half of what my 401k balance sheet says. :omg:

Then... second thing...

I look at that ticker on schwab, shows a 0.00% dividend yield.. ok, No dividend. fine. Then it has a "Long Term Capital Gain" of $0.1887. With a Distribution total of $0.1887 as of 12/08/11. So, was that $0.1887/share given to me? or, something else?

Not sure this is "Investing 102".. but... i figured you guys might know the answers. lol

If you go to Royce's home page, it shows the $12.12 NAV.
http://www.roycefunds.com/Funds/Open/rof/default.asp

If you go here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/rypnx
You can see that they have beat the S&P 500 in the YTD/3/5/10 year categories.

Not sure why your account is showing different numbers... I would follow up with your 401k admin.

Here's something I'm going to use for a little "lesson"... This graphic shows the NAV.... NET ASSET VALUE of the fund by year. Please note that if you were contributing the SAME dollar amount paycheck to paycheck - you would have BOUGHT a lot more shares when the fund had a LOW NAV... and you'd have bought FEWER shares when the NAV was high.... and this averaging in can really help your performance in the long run.

If someone would have told you in 2008 to buy twice as many shares of something that had gotten killed --- you'd be saying "NO WAY JOSE".... but of course the mutual fund is doing it for you... so in this case a mutual fund can be beneficial.

This particular fund has a decent performance. So many do not.


Year-End NAVs
Year NAV
2011 $10.32
2010 $12.08
2009 $9.03
2008 $5.57
2007 $11.02
2006 $13.04
2005 $12.29
2004 $13.31
2003 $12.14
2002 $7.37

So what you may be seeing is a "balance" that is both cash and units purchased... and perhaps they only invest your cash hoard quarterly... as it builds up. Just guessing here.

The MUTUAL FUND collects the DIVIDENDS from the companies they own --- they can choose to pay out a LONG TERM CAPITAL GAIN if they have any as they buy and sell the shares that make up the fund. Sometimes you get a real nice LTCG and sometimes not so much. What you really want out of these is the long term growth that you get from shares purchased on a regular basis... and of course... hopefully the fund performs as well. Sadly -- this fund has a pretty steep (percentage wise) fee in excess of 1%. While that doesn't seem like a lot -- it adds up over time -- because it's 1% of YOUR invested dough from day one --- and every year thereafter... but they are what they are. And saving this way is better than "not". :cheers:

Well, as of 3/14/12 I officially own Whole Foods, Coca Cola Company, Southern Company, and Occidental Petroleum. I basically bought $4000 worth of each stock with money I had in my Star Fund with Vanguard. Everything is still under the umbrella of Roth so I pay no taxes on any of the gains. As of closing today, my balance is up $26 between the four stocks. However, Oxy and Southern Company are down. Whole Foods and Coke had large enough gains that I made money, :woot:

I'm still poking around on Vanguard's website so I can learn to fully utilize it. Now, what to do with my tax return money, hmmmmmmm?

:bow: :bow: :bow: :bow: :bow: :woot:

I have referred to "noise" in several of my posts.... and what I mean by that is if you watch CNBC every day -- you get bombarded by various expert opinions. One says this is going to the moon - the next guy says the world is coming to an end. THAT is what makes a "market" - one guy is selling - the other, buying.

If you listened to this "noise" - you'd soon go crazy. Like most "opinions" there is some fact... some information that is worth consideration. But if you acted on this "noise" you'd be in and out of stocks about every 15 seconds. This is why I urge you to AVOID the noise.... listen - learn - think - but don't react. Many of the facts on these shows are for TRADERS and professionals that are trying to milk every last drop of "return" on their money. If the average guy listens and reacts - my guess is - you'd be flat broke in less than 6 months.

With this in mind - The reason for todays post (I'm a bonafide posting whore) I read this article on Seeking Alpha. If you only read the part on Coca Cola and McDonalds.... it will sum up the "noise" I refer to.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/4385...g_income&ifp=0


So here's my take away on articles like this....

There is ZERO supporting numbers to stake the authors "buy" recommendation on Coke... other than it's a nice company with good dividend and is a solid business. Remember that this is an INTERNATIONAL play - in the food biz. Now let's go to his "I wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole" argument for McDonalds... All manor of numbers - pointing to food costs rising - G&A (general and administrative costs) expense rising... Europe declining etc.

REALLY?? So none of those above factors affect Coke? Only McDonalds.... Both international companies in the food biz. One is a buy the other a sell.

I read this stuff... but I don't put much stock (pun) into the authors argument. I hold a bunch of both and wouldn't sell them even if we slipped into a depression. This guy is just the very definition of the noise I refer to. :rofl: :woot:

Okay --- Last post for a few days. I'll be at Bondurant doing their Grand Prix school... and that's more fun than posting here! :D


I'm posting a link to a Seeking Alpha article on MLP's (Master Limited Partnerships)... *********** I misspoke on the TAX explanation.... as I scanned and posted too quickly. That's what happens on only a half cup of coffee some mornings!


Personally I have large stakes in Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP)... and just received their 1099's.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4405...g_income&ifp=0

Please use the thread to go back and read my UPDATED post on MLP's.

I misspoke about the contents of the linked article.


Sorry!

Have great time! I'll assume the 4 day class?

That would be correct!

Gwen is taking the 3 day "beginner" class in the SS Camaro. Hopefully this sets the hook and she is also signed up to drive the Mustang at Thunderhil @ the end of April in the SAAC event.

Awesome! Gwen is probably a nervous as a monkey that just ate a handful of fishhooks about T-Hill'n the Mutt.

It's doubtful but if possible I may road trip it to spectate at T-Hill and...........eat at Casa Ramos :yes:

the great thing is that Mustang is very easy to drive as a beginner. :thumbsup:

Damn thing spins like a top!!


LOL

Greg - have a great time as I am sure you both will.

Just a quick update - I opened a couple of broker accounts last week to check them out. Hands-down the Schwab folks get my business. I had cause to ask them a question so I picked up the phone. Not only did they pick up the phone without delay but the guy who picked up could not have been more helpful if he tried. He made some changes to my account while on the phone and had me log back in, made me feel welcome and did not talk down to me, made sure I knew they were available for any type of assistance 24x7 for free, pointed me to their on-line resources and booked me into a free one-on-one session with one of their traders to go through their tools and get me started. Completely no pressure and did not ask me anything about my funding intentions. Additionally they just happen to have an office barely 2min from my house - bonus!

I'm going to deposit some limited funds in that direction this week and get my feet wet. I've always wanted to do this myself so right now I just want to learn and have some fun. I appreciate your self-deprecating humor at your own past mistakes - helping to illustrate the point about gambling vs investing for the long term.

Thanks for the "push" - will keep you posted :thumbsup:

Gregg

This is just like track days or anything else for that matter.... getting started is half the battle. And NOBODY expects you to be an expert! We're all at different levels of expertise at various endeavors. An attorney buddy of mine is always marveling how I can take a car apart and put it back together.... I finally said to him. Todd... I can't write a contract.... get over it. :woot:

Personally -- I have accounts at 4 different brokerages.... and Schwab is just fantastic in my book. Glad you had a good experience - as this echoes my own. :cheers:

Thats a great way to put it :thumbsup:

APPL announced its 1.8% dividend. That should make some people happy... it wont affect much of the 0.4 shares I own. hahah.

With Apples announcement of their stock buy backs and dividend payouts, what should we expect to see happening now? Buy more, sell, sit back and relax its not that big a deal? Just curious. My 6 measely shares won't make or break me but I am curious how this will affect the stock.

I don't think any dividend hunters are going to back up the truck tomorrow - or anytime soon for a <2% dividend. It's just a kind of "peace offering" to the big holders that were screaming for some 'use of the cash hoard'.

The thing that is propelling Apple is it's products and it's stellar sales and profit numbers. As long as they have that growth and the stock is still "relatively cheap" on a P/E basis... and it has momentum. It should be just fine.

This is where I would remind people not to load the boat - or think that they're missing out not having MORE Apple. Remember the pigs get fat - hogs
get slaughtered. Be thankful if you own some and you're sitting fat and pretty.

:cheers:

I'd like to make note of something that we've only touched on before -- and that's the INVERSE relationship of BOND YIELDS and STOCK PRICES....

Bond yields have risen quiet nicely (relatively) in the last couple weeks. When YIELDS on bonds go up -- they'll steal money from the stock market. People like a nice safe return...

I don't think anyone should REACT to this "news". I'm not going to. But I'm pointing it out that once you start hearing about this on the TALKING HEAD TV...
you can start to correlate the movement in stock prices.

If the yields go too high too fast -- they'll knock the legs out of the housing market... NOT GOOD.... and if they continue to rise... they'll knock the legs out of the stock market as well.

Remember that you'd still get your dividend... and that's what many are invested in... but a 4% stock dividend doesn't look as good when bond yields creep up to 3 or 3.5% etc. So then stock prices have to go DOWN to make the apparent yield go UP. A .35 dividend on a $10 stock is 3.5% -- but it's percentage goes up as the stock drops to $9 and higher still at $8.50

Just a "look, watch, and listen" reminder to the newbs out there. I want you all to learn from these events and to understand their correlation. :woot:

Got a good article in my email box from Seekingalpha today (part of the "pre-market summary" email they send out...)

anyhow, it re-emphasizes a lot of what we've all discussed here. :thumbsup:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4440...ortfolio&ifp=0

Ahhhhhh..... The beauty of dividned inWesting.... I'm in AriDzona playing around and AstraZeneca deposits $9,750 into my account. LOL. Gotta love it!!

That's the kind of noise I like to read!

This made me smile a bit:

If you read this article and see the results....

This is why --- after many years of experience in the market with all manor of styles of investing and trading... With all the pros tips and tricks (which generally is only good for THEIR wallets).

I've said to avoid all the hype -- the "hot stocks" -- and many other types of investments that seem (on the surface) far "sexier"....

The good old good ole' boys will get 'er done for ya! :cheers: :woot:

here's a good read i found today. Good for us "beginning" investors that helps us see the benefit, even tho we arent one of the "big guys".

just another "feel good" article to help "stay the course", even if our dividends are minute.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4513...ortfolio&ifp=0

and.... a little bit of free money... (bought this before finding this thread, one of my first Dividend stocks a few months back)...

3/23/2012 DIVIDEND DIVIDEND:LMT +$2.47

:woot:

Gotta love getting paid to sleep!!!:bow: :bow:

I work with a few folks that seem to have figured this out!