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Anyone Buying?
Watched the market all week.. yesterday was a 52 week low I believe... anyone buying? thinking thier may be some bargains around..?
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I'd tend to wait a bit -- the market ALWAYS goes down in the summer months.... and even worse now maybe with the Euro issues. You never have to rush to catch a falling knife. Many times it pays to wait just a bit more.... until you have some clarity. If you do decide to buy - nibble. Ciao! :cheers: |
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"you never have to rush to catch a falling knife", now thats great quote, the first time i've heard that, but won't be the last!
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Little update since i last posted on here. I got a little busy with life and work and just now had a chance to buy some stocks. I started off with 5k which i felt comfortable investing right now and bought:
STD (Banco Santander): they pay great dividends and the price is very low right now. Plus since i am only 26 i can ride this out longterm to see where it takes me. I have a feeling that overtime as European contries work out their debt crisis this stock will rebound...hopefully! i tried to have dividends reinvested but they said i cant for this stock. I will just have to reinvest manually... KMP (Kinder Morgan Partners): Since i work for bp up here in washington i am very familiar with this company and their operating philosophy and so i feel comfortable keeping this company as my long-term investment, with dividends reinvested. PM (Philips Morse): not a smoker but its a strong well established company and i agree with Greg's take on it... BREW (Craft Brewing Alliance): Small cap company that has shown great growth over the past 3 years or so. This is a long term gamble (if there is such a thing??). I guess i am looking at this through rose colored glasses hoping it will follow suit with Samuel Adams...That and i remember this smart investor on this site who said to invest in companies you trust and buy products from. And i must say i do love my Red Hook :cheers: Long term i plan to put another 5k in by the end of the year and buy 4-6 different stocks. This is a brokerage account. I already have a 401k through the company and at the end of the year when tax time comes and i can determine what the max amount i can put into a Roth IRA is, i will open one of those accounts and put the max amount for the 2012 year (again i will invest in different companies from what i currently have to diversify). Thoughts/suggestions/critiques are always welcome. |
All good buys Aman!
Banco Santander (STD) could turn out to be the buy of the decade if europe can get their act together. This is a world class bank and is finding itself in the "baby and the bathwater" with all european banks getting hammered. Keep up the good work! |
Just a reminder to "newbs" --- like today when everything opens "green" --- and then you see you have "A" stock that is red.... Why? What is wrong?
Remember to check to see if the stock is going "ex-dividend"... meaning that as of today it pays a dividend out so typically will trade down around par to the dividend payment (per share). Kimberly Clark (KMB) is one of those today (I own so saw this "red" number on a green day) thus the reminder... and just to use this example because newbs might forget about checking this kind of thing. I always use the oddities in a market to look into "why" so that I'm not blindsided by some news that I might have missed. :cheers: :thumbsup: |
Just for fun ---- any of you own SNAP-ON?? (SNA)
It's worth a good look if you need a steady eddie name. |
Thanks Greg! I started reading this book called The Elements of Investing last night. It is a short read that anyone can easily finish in a few days, but i like the way it is written. The authors wrote it in a manner much like this investing 102 thread where someone who has minimal knowledge of the stock market can pick it up and understand what sound investing is all about. The book is oriented towards investing long term into index funds as opposed to buying individual stocks...but even if you aren't that kind of investor i would suggest it to everyone as there is a lot of good information in there that is easy to read and understand. Also, its a fairly current book written after the '08 crisis so the stuff they talk about is relative to our current market...
So speaking of which, Greg i am sure you are invested into index funds as well. What would your thoughts be on a guy like myself using my Roth IRA to invest into index funds and my brokerage account to invest into individual stocks. At least for the next 3-5 years as i am just getting started out? I want to be diversified but at the same time i am worried about trying to get too diversified too quickly to the point where i have spread my money out too thin amongst different investments and in doing so i never really take advantage of the market swings...or would you say there is no such thing as doing that as long as i am in it for the long term and not trying to make a quick buck?? |
Another thing i am looking into is refinancing my home mortgage. With rates as low as 3% i did some math and figured out that if i can refinance @ 3% for 15 year fixed, i would be paying damn near the same monthly mortgage as my current monthly payments are on my 30 year fixed loan. Of course, prices are changing daily and i need to time it properly to lock my rate in a good percentage, but i just thought i would throw it out there since a home is also a long term investment and any money i can save on interest is money i can put into the market and hopefully get a higher return than 3%.
Which I guess this brings me to another point, and i apologize i know i can get long winded sometimes, but what is everyone's opinion on refinancing with another 30 year mortgage where maybe i am paying 300-500 dollars less per month than if i went with the 15 year refinance. My thought is to pay the min. payment for 30 years and take that 300-500 dollar savings and use it for investing. Not only does keeping my home loan help with tax returns, but i also know that i have a fixed 3% loss on interest for the next thirty years (i am just going to use 3% as an example even though that might not be the rate i lock into...). From what i have gathered so far, the stock market will generally have a ~7% RoR. so even though i am "losing" money by paying interest on my home loan that has been dragged out for 30 years, i know right now that the interest rate will always be 3% for the life of the loan. So if i take the money i save per month by having a 30 year loan as opposed to the 15 year loan and invest it, i can reasonably expect a higher growth than 3% on my investments AND i can afford to invest more money now, rather than later because my monthly mortgage payment decreased. So essentially, if what i am trying to say makes any sense at all then i would be making ~4% on my money ([7% RoR on stock market] - [3% interest payment on homeloan] = 4%) and i am doing so 15 years earlier than i would be if i went with a 15 year loan, right?? (i am ignoring salary increases or other forms of income when i say this...). Once again, i apologize if this doesnt make sense and for being so long winded. Sometimes it is really hard to type what you are thinking in your head... |
Aman --- good post.
#1 --- ETF's.... I'm not a fan of this style of investing for the main reason is that they are "dumb" like Mutual Funds are. They seek to just diversify an investment in a group/basket of stocks and sadly the bad to midland stocks drag down the overall investment in the good names they hold. While they can pay dividends they are usually super low % wise... so that leaves you with mostly the "growth" component. It's for that reason that I don't use them. They will simply follow that market - you'll never beat the market - and you don't get paid to sit on your hands. So the ETF "versions" I use are for Corporate Bonds - and Junk Bonds (one and the same really except for the quality of the underlying issue quality/credit worthiness) such as HYG and JNK and PFF.... those are the trading symbols for the three I use the most (in fact have a couple mil in these). I use these to park cash and get a fairly high return - but I would warn that these are not for the buy it and fugidaboudit investor. They'll get crushed if the interest rates move! So you have to be nimble. #2 -- I've suggested in the past that if you have 5K to invest - that you might only choose TWO stocks... and 10K you might choose 5 names etc.... and when you get to 100K you should have 20 names....and even if you have a million you can still stick to 20 or 25 names. This is given that you're simply invested in the best of breed and want the dividends long term etc. So to answer your question --- diversity without the corresponding level of investment just won't get ya done.... so don't diversify just to diversify - but rather WORK TOWARDS THAT GOAL.... so with 5K buy two - save for your next investment and buy name number 3 and so on. Hope this answers your question? :thumbsup: |
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I wouldn't make your decision based on tax deductibility alone either. Doing something just to get the tax deduction isn't a good reason for doing it. If it's a good financial decision and it's tax deductible, then just look at that as a bonus. Don't bank on that interest always being tax deductible either, the gov't needs cash right now and they'll find it somewhere. You already have the correct mindset though of maximizing the amount of return on your money so just do what feels right to you and you'll be fine. A lot of people just try to focus on the lowest payment and longest term they can get on borrowed money and borrowing as much as they can get. |
I would advise the opposite of Eric... I'd take the 30 year note - and then if you want to you can add principle payments each month or once or twice a year.
The real math needs to be worked out with your real interest rate as the taxable net is what's important. Having said the above it also depends on how old you are. It's absolutely ridiculous for someone that is 45 or 50 years old to owe on a 30 year mortgage! The whole key to RETIREMENT is to have your expenses low! A house payment is the biggest debt burden people have... You can live quite effectively if you don't have a house payment when you're 70! I have a 30 year mortgage (with 23 years left of the 30) I'm 59.... but I also do not have to have a mortgage - I do it for tax purposes and I DOUBLE the payment each month just because it bugs me to owe anything. So if you're a good money manager - and are truly diligent about paying extra on the principle - it's better to "have to" pay less per month - but only as long as you stick to your guns and pay down that principle.... thus effectively saving you the interest along the way. |
You'll never regret having a mortgage free place to live. Timing the stock market at retirment age may be a different story.
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If you retire at 65 and have a life expectancy of early 90's.... you've got 25 more years that your retirement investments will still be working for you... with both growth and income. Dividends increase - a fixed rate mortgage does not. He can still pay off his house as early as he is able... The problem is most people cut their payment with a re-fi but then go out and piss the money away rather than investing it... so it really depends more about how anyone handles their finances. |
Ok So I maybe I'm missing it, but correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't having a tax write off that you don't need anymore if you have 15 year note instead of a 30 year term mean your just wasting money for a write off?
Example 1000 bucks per month interest that your not paying taxes on at the end of the year. But had you of just paid the taxes on that money by paying off your note early, won't that put 720 bucks per month in your pocket instead of a banker pocket for that lower payment but longer term? That is saying your paying 28% to the IRS. Seems to me that a just having write off is great, but sometimes it might be better to pay the government a little bit of money instead of the banker alot of money. Follow Me? or should I just back out into the shop? Heck if you want a write off, go buy a 2nd home and rent it out. |
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Yeah -- you should probably just stick to bending metal. The WRITE off.... can reduce your TAXABLE INCOME.... so the proper math might look more like... A guy makes 100K taxable income He pays 25K in interest His net taxable income (without anything else) would be 75K. Now not only is this guy saving the taxes on the 25K but he's also reduced his amount of taxable income which may have put him in a lower % tax bracket as well! It's all very complicated -- and is something that needs to be worked out per individual and with a qualified accountant that can crunch the actual numbers. +++++++++++++ So here's the other thing that people forget about when buying a house. The ROI should actually be calculated on the amount of money you put down... so let's say a guy puts down 25K on a 100K house.... and 10 years later he sells for 150K... did he make 50 on 100 or did he make 50 on the 25 he actually "invested". Of course that is oversimplification... because the numbers just aren't that simple and if you ask me -- NOBODY ever made any money buying a house that they LIVE in... because when you take into account the payments and the upkeep and the taxes etc -- they've spent way more than they "made"... but it SOUNDS GOOD! :lol: The way to make money on real estate is to buy something and rent it out... 'cause it doesn't work out on you primary living space. But everyone has to live somewhere and the key is to have it free and clear as soon as you possibly can. The catch is -- investing in the stocks or other forms of investments -- will far exceed the amount you save by paying off early. You have to take into account the COMPOUNDING of interest on interest over time.... and a paid off house doesn't return anything to you after it's paid off.... it just saves you some money each month. But the money isn't WORKING... if that makes any sense. |
The other factor in this whole scenario is INFLATION.... and over a 15 or 30 life of a mortgage -- a fixed rate mortgage.... you'd be paying that fixed rate with money you'd be making 20 years from now... so it should be a far lower % of your income as it stays the same and your income increases.
But really --- we're all just doing a "what if" and this needs to be worked out in real math with an accountant. My last house I paid all cash.... just over 2MM.... That money at 5% would EARN 100K per year TAX FREE.... and if you factor in the deduction - my real rate of interest might have been 2% by using the deduction to offset earned income... so in fact I should have had a mortgage and I'd have been making money on that borrowed money. My accountant finally convinced me I was being an idiot just for the privilege of saying "it's all mine". In my case -- I can borrow cash on cash -- with a super low interest rate and what I pay out is half what I actually make on the amount. Again - this all needs to be worked out in detail with an accountant and an individuals income. |
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I understand it all depends on each persons own position, but I think the more money that ends up in your pocket the better. Back to the shop. |
I forgot to do a little more math on the deduction question as posed by Rodger (Ironworks).
If the guy was making 100K -- and NO interest deduction -- and for our purposes we'll put him in the 28% bracket... so he has a tax due bill of 28K.... But had he had at 25K interest deduction -- he has a 75K income - but may only be at 22% now... so owes 17.5K tax due.... there's a 10K "savings" in taxes... But he's paying 2K per month on a house payment... but now if you subtract the 10k savings -- he's only paying 14K (per year) or about 1200 a month... This all becomes even "more" at larger income levels... so it all 'depends'. |
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Yes -- a guy would probably have more money NET in his pocket if he had no payment... but most people have to live somewhere.... and that has a 'cost' attached to it. If you're house is paid for - but that cash is tied up and so is not earning you anything either. Obviously the best scenario is to have no payment and no taxable income and have enough to live on... but for about 99% of the population that just isn't how it works out. :lol: I keep a mortgage to offset some income that I have that puts me in a higher bracket... and the invested cash earns more than I pay out... but that is NOT the normal situation. |
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I am also the 30 year loan type of guy...I don't need a paid off house and less investments. But that is a personal choice. Plus the write off, and inflation, and I am paying 3%... I can make that throwing darts to pick my stocks.. Also a side note..We just got back from the Ahwahnee Hotel in Yosemite... That is how I like to camp....Presidential suite... |
This can get complicate real quick and Greg makes some good points. Another thing you have to consider is what your return is on the principal part of your payment as this money is essentially a re-investment in the house, kind of like a company buying back it's own stock. If the house was bought right, meaning probably relatively recently, then there's a chance it might see some decent appreciation in the next few years in which case the higher principal payment of a 15 year note might pay off. But, like Greg said, you can accomplish this by adding to your payment each month too if you have a 30 yr. In the end though I think it's good advice to not look at your house as an investment and looking back a few years from now any loan you get these days at these rates will be a killer deal.
The only thing we know for sure is what we don't know. We don't know what's going to be tax deductible in coming years. We don't know what the value of houses or stocks are going to be in the future. We don't know anything at all about the future for sure really or if there will even be one. What we do know is this is one helluva good discussion. :lateral: |
Here's a very interesting informative article I stumbled on regarding what the SUPER RICH pay in taxes... and some interesting % numbers that just might surprise you... and it's not the % on the super rich that surprised me!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47704712 |
A thought on the long term mortgage. I have always been tought to pay off debt a quick as possible so you dont pay interest. While interest is tax deductible, its still more interest than tax savings.
You would have less principle invested in house or property if paid off sooner than later. Ex house = 300k interest say 6% (taxes, fees included) you would pay almost 600k at the end of 30yrs Guess is your other investments are yielding greater than the loan interest, that would be a reason to hold off on quick payment. |
The others have made some good points, but I I thought I would add a few other things to think about. First of all this is not an easy question to answer and is very dependent on the individual. The first thing to consider is that you can generally get a lower rate with a 15-year than a 30-year and the amount of interest saved is rather large between getting a lower rate and borrowing the money for a shorter time period. For example, if you have a $300,000 loan at 4.0% for 30-years vs. a $300,000 loan at 3.375% for 15 years, the amount of intestest savings is $132,879. However, you are paying (investing) an additional $694 per month to get that savings of $132,879. The question you need to ask is can you invest $694 per month over the next 15 years and end up with more than $132,879.
The answer is it depends on what you invest the money in and how the investment performs. By selecting the 15-year loan, you are essentially selecting a "safe" guaranteed return. As long as you make the payment, you are guaranteed that return. If you instead take the 30-year loan and invest in the stock market you are selecting a higher risk investment with greater return potential, but no guaranteed return. While you can argue that the stock market has had a long-term average return of x% (7% 8%,9%), there is no guarantee you are going to get that return in the future. You are taking on more risk to potentially get a higher return. So the question becomes what is your risk tolerance. Do you want the guaranteed return or are you willing to take on more risk for the potential of a higher return, but also with the potential for a lower return. |
I see what you're saying Greg. I'm basically dong exactly what you recommend investing X amount in the market every month with a 30 year. I pay a little extra every month on the house as well.
One variable that hasn't been mentioned is interest rates. I'm 35 and when I'm your age, are interest rates going to be 4% on a 30 year fixed? I seriously doubt it. Since we are talking history here, 30 years ago rates were 20%. To me, that's a major game changer in this discussion and a variable that can't be ignored. At that point, I guess the decision can be made to cash out the stocks and pay off the house. However, that would be a major tax burden. My game plan is to secure 4-5 single family homes at these low prices/rates in the next 2-3 years max. Cash flow them and have 4-5 free and clears in 15-20 years for residual income and continue to invest X amount into the market in meantime. I can play the primary mortgage by ear. |
^^^^^^
Exactly what Todd says.. Anyone who thinks that interest rates will be this low forever, better re think their strategy.. I paid credit card rates for a home loan once.. Never again.. I have a 4% loan now, and I am about to purchase another life changing property for 3.5%. This is historically low, and down the road , this will put you in a position to be comfortable in a fixed loan when the Sh-t hits the fan.. Once you have the low rate home loan, you can then concentrate on Investing.. But we must live somewhere, so why not lock in historically low rates... |
Todd -- good discussion...
So here's the thing I think most folks "miss" when we're discussing a primary residence.... This is NOT an investment. It's simply OVERHEAD... it's your home. It generates no real return because in order to do so - you'd have to sell (cash out) and if your home has risen in price -- so has everything else. We don't live in a vacuum so the same inflationary % is generally on EVERYTHING including whatever new place you buy.. so that is TRADING DOLLARS. Now -- if you choose to downsize when you're older... and take out some equity fine... but you'd have had far more equity if you'd invested. Far more as in triple or double... and if truth be really discussed... had you invested wisely and gotten just the normal historical return - you won't NEED to downsize. I don't care where anyone gets their facts from -- HISTORICALLY the stock market has outproduced real returns on real estate. A quickly done search and cut and paste: ....over the long run stocks win easily. A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and economics professor at Baruch College in New York City, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared the annual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004 compared with those of 15 different "paper" investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities futures, mortgage securities and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The results? Housing delivered a solid but unimpressive annualized return of 8.6%. Commercial property did better at 9.5%. The S&P, however, delivered a crushing 13.4%. Other studies argue that real estate's returns are much worse. Yale finance and economics professor Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, who looked back to 1890, contends that only twice has real estate produced truly outstanding returns: after World War II, when returning troops were starting their families, and from 1998 to 2005, a period he thinks is a bubble. Housing's rate of return, he argues, has to trend back to the mean of about 3% a year - barely above the inflation rate. If that's starting to happen now, he says, we could be facing many years of losses. Here's my point in all of this.... A house is just a home - it's NOT an investment in the true sense. We like to talk ourselves into thinking that it is - but in reality it's not. The fact that we might sell at a higher face value than we paid -- doesn't really crunch the actual numbers. So let's separate INVESTING which returns real cash you can SPEND and a cost/overhead expense cash eater. Having a plan and sticking to it --- get a LOW COST FIXED mortgage not a variable... then DO NOT EVER use your home as a cash machine. GET THE SOB PAID OFF. Once you do that - you reduce your overhead expense and put real cash back into your pocket. BUT at the same time people need to invest - regardless of how you make that happen that needs to have TIME and we've done that exercise numerous times in this thread.... so the same discussion we're having about saving interest expense and the amount of savings between a 15 and a 30 year mortgage. That's the very same math that needs to be applied to your dividend and interest compounding on your investments. Investments GENERATE cash... and they should also incorporate GROWTH for a real TOTAL RETURN. It's the TOTAL RETURN that people under appreciate and I'll take 100% T/R over a savings of 2 or 3% in a tax savings argument. Most are overlooking the T/R of a good investment for the short term monthly savings of a house payment. I think that's why Americans are broke. The only "investment" they think they have is their house... and sadly... it's why they're greeters at Wal-Mart when they're 70+ years old. :cheers: |
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TOTALLY AGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT!! BUY LOW - FINANCE EVEN LOWER. FIXED RATE ONLY. THEN GET THE HOUSE ='s AN ATM thoughts OUT OF YOUR HEAD! |
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Fixed rate, House is HOME and not an ATM , and buy low..:thumbsup: The prices are rock bottom, and the rates are rock bottom...When do you EVER see BOTH of these happening together ? Maybe never again....The time is now... Just to get a HOME at these prices would be killer, or just to get the LOAN rate at 3%, would be life changing, but BOTH ????? OMG... 10 years from now, you will be KING....:hail: :hail: It truly will change your life.. Being smart and lucky, are the tickets to success.. |
Sooooo true.....so many people did this the last ten years or so. No friggen common sense, like houses are really go up 30% a year forever....
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So I was looking at McDonalds (MCD) this morning... and I did my usual look back at the chart and dividend etc.
The reason I'm writing about it this morning is because of our recent housing discussion. Which brought up a couple of key points I was trying to get people to at least think about. Since 2008 MCD has DOUBLED it's dividend from .38 per share to .70 per share... and while doing that it also grew in price by 68% Since 1990 it has price growth of 971% How's your house done since then?? Which one of these investments would help you retire? 100K invested in your house or 10K invested in 1990 in McDonalds? In 1990 a share of MCD was 7.00 and paid .02 dividend... it has split 2 for 1 twice since then so for every one share you bought you now have 4.... 10K / 7.00 = 1428 shares -- now after splits = 5700 shares paying .70 per quarter or annually $16K.... Monthly that is $1300 AND I'M NOT CALCULATING REINVESTED DIVIDENDS --- I'm just doing the bare minimum net math - and that you've taken the cash dividend and pissed it away -- OR maybe you used it to pay down your house each quarter? LOL Figure the extra 100K in your home equity would have saved you maybe $400 or 500 a month now? I don't want to do all the math -- I'm just putting this out there for "thinking" purposes... not a detailed breakdown of which is better etc just LOOK at it is all I'm saying. One is an investment that is now real NET WORTH and CASH FLOW one is just where you live. My thinking is that $1300 a month now is looking pretty good. Oh -- yeah -- and your 10K investment is now worth 500K :cheers: :woot: |
Greg...
Great points...Especially on a down day for Mickey Dee's...Long term it has been great. And to your point of Housing vs. Investing... My recent test was Buying a HOME in 2009, and adding six figures to my Investments , the same year. Since I bought the HOME at the bottom, it hasn't gone down, but it sure hasn't gone up. The money that I added to my Portfolio ? Haha, It pays my house payment and more... My Wife in 2009 wanted to throw more money at the Home to increase the equity..We had long talks on why we shouldn't. Thankfully she agreed with me, but she still gets nervous but knows we did the right thing Investing the money. Sure at times the market has been up, down, and sideways, but it has and will outperform my HOME value.. Also I don't think of my Home as an Investment for profit, but a place to live, and I won't ever be taking money out of it..I am 52 with 27 years left on my loan..just like I want it.. I had friends that were able to buy their home for cash because they were afraid of the Market....Now they want to cash re-fi out...The bank won't let them.. They bank with chase , and they have their Investments with chase..Fools.. And they cannot get money out to pay off student loans, ect...I told them in 2009 , to get the house loan and to invest more.... They told me that their home was a guaranteed return....Yet now they struggle to work to pay the mortgage... My Dividends pay mine... |
Sweet! That helps me realize renting right now isn't so bad. Yeah, I'd really like to be able to buy a house and not just rent. However, I'm nowhere near settled so now is simply not the time for me to buy unfortunately. I am putting my money into some stocks though instead of just spending away. :D
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My old saying is in partial agreement with yours... A primary residence is not meant to be an investment, but if you play it right and know what you're doing it sure can be a killer investment. :thumbsup: Oh and you get utility out of it too. (from my Econ days) :D Quote:
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Well I sold 2 house in an up market. Both I lived in for over 2 years which is tax free profit. no capital gains tax.
I bought in 1998 for $130k in 2004 sold it for $305k, in 2005 bought a house for $234k sold it in 2007 for $325k. 2 things I did wrong were from 2004 to 2007 was to not invest the money I had made and invest it. It sat in a saving account. 2nd mistake, In 2007 I bought a house that I was planing to do the same thing and dump it in 2 years. Took most of all the profits and put it down on the house, to keep the mortgage payment low. Economy stuck it to me good. Got to stay in this house longer than I thought, or just move on and buy cheap, start over. |
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The minute people like the secretary down the street and the metal bender starting "flipping houses" for six figure profits, I knew it was time to sell and rent. I told my friends and neighbors to do the same in 2005 and 2006. They wished they had listened because at Bay Area prices, many got their asses handed to them. I've been happy renting for 5 years and am getting back in now. This one will be for 10-12 years I reckon. I am not mobile and young and single anymore. Hopefully if I read more of GW's stock posts and do what he says I can build an Ironworks pool down the road. :D |
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