Good questions --- And I wasn't using McDonalds (MCD) for anything other than an example of "fundamental change" and how it can have a dramatic affect on a company - good or bad. The key is IF you owned MCD -- that you should always be paying attention!!!

All stocks are "bets" -- I don't care how big or small.... Things CHANGE. IF you're lucky - they go your way.... and if you're not - they turn against you (take OIL for example). We all have to make a judgement call at some point - do you LIKE and agree with the changes made -- or do you feel they suck? Sometimes we can't possibly know.... and we're just along for the ride.

My personal opinion is that FAST FOOD in general is in for long term changes... and there will be winners and losers. I personally think MCD is a longer term loser because I don't think people are eating that way as much anymore. None of my friends go to McDonalds - for anything - and we're the generation that grew up on this stuff. I will choose a higher quality - healthier meal whenever possible.... and I know where to get a GOOD burger and fries when I want one. But that's my personal feelings - and I sold MCD 2 or more years ago - when I realized that it didn't fit my personal stock picking guide -- which is - DO I LIKE THE PLACE - DO I SHOP THERE - DO I LIKE THE PRODUCTS. The answer to all three is no. Sold.

Everyone has to make that judgement for themselves. Nobody should blindly follow someone else's picks. That's when you get into trouble because you don't personally know anything about your holding or why. Fine if it's going up - but the doubts creep in when it's bleeding.

Right now, today, if I was thinking of getting on board with MCD, I'd be kicking myself for not going in yesterday. Otherwise, I'd say to myself, good deal MCD but let's see what happens in a few weeks or maybe next quarter before I put some money into it. I think there are a lot of people trying to get into MCD right now while they are hot and hoping it will go a little hotter so they can bail and make a quick profit. The bandwagon affect you mentioned.

Admittedly, I agree with Greg to a large extent about MCD though. I'm not sure they are positioned correctly to capitalize on people's changing attitudes towards food. At the same time though, I'm not ready to pull the plug yet. Maybe I'm being more cautious or simply not as confident as Greg but I'm being patient for right now while also considering other options. My biggest problem which has caused me to be more patient with my MCD shares is I don't know who else I would want to invest my money with. I've got to decide that before I decide to sell off my shares. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

why sell? why not just hold if the divi hasn't changed.

I'm trying to sort through some of the though process on the next stocks to pic. My daughter loves Chicken nuggets from MCD and they just built another one right by our house. But If I have a choice I would do Carls or Jack in the Box. So I'm not sure I see fast food going by the weigh side ( HAHAHA ). but Now that they post the calories on the menu by law I think. People are more aware of what they are ordering. Fast food is usually convenient or price not for taste and as you get older you eat better.

But like with some oil stocks going up and some not lately, you have to decide when to hang the risk out there and when to wait. CVX has gone up alot and the BPT is bounces around. KMI is still tanking.

Ideally you buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying. And hope everytime you open the Schwab account its all green.

That's one of the reasons I've held on, too.

If I owned MCD I'd hold it. If the new CEO (Easterbrook) is as good as he's been for the stock - there's more good to come. I don't think I'd chase a stock - and certainly not for it's dividend... which as a percentage - goes lower as the price goes higher.

The CEO seems to recognize the company needs some updating and changes to the offerings. That's a good first step.

Don't bail on a stock the market just rewarded for going the right way.

McDonalds is suffering from a stigma they deserve. All good things come to an end, in their case, selling poor quality food at the cheapest price. The blinders have come off for many Americans that don't have their head in the sand. Hell, I didn't eat the crap before I really decided to get healthy.

I'd compare it to Cadillac and their old fart stigma. They can run all the commercials they want with young people, but I still can't see myself in a Cadillac.

They can recover and adapt, but it's going to take some serious time and marketing dollars to drown out the past and regain market share to places like Chipotle.

I'd rather invest in a company with a positive vibe and some momentum. No company is to big to fail. I recently read Good to Great. One of the elite companies that made the grade was Circuit City. They are gone... Look at block buster, etc... This is food so it's a bit different. I will say that McDonalds has 50 times the competition it had 25 years ago.

Remember that MCD isn't a middle class and up staple. For a single parent or homeless person it maybe the only warm meal they eat in a week. In my opinion they are "too big to fail" and should be able to sustain itself if they can reinvent itself every few years. Long term I think its safe to stay. I don't own any stock or eat there....much. If I had owned it and have 100+ shares, i'd hold.

Like 90 people (bout four) have told me to read that book. Its on my "oh, sh_t, i forgot" list lol

I agree, I just don't think that demographic solely can support a flourishing business. They are franchises so the strong will likely survive with diminishing volume. I doubt they fail either, but nothing is out of play.
It was a decent read. It came down to the culture the great companies created. That was the factor from good to great. There, I saved you 250 pages. :lol: