after 200 + pages, this is still the best thread on the net.

Excellent point.. on the apple crap they just released. :lol:

Iphone 4 user here.. and just what you said, is happening to me. I love my iPhone. But i have to jailbreak it to really love it. I'm not that impressed with the iPhone 5 specs/differences. Its not cutting edge. iOS 6 has some pretty bad flaws (albiet fixable, eventually). I'm due for an upgrade, but I'm debating on checking out an Android (Galaxy S3, or something that comes out in the near future).. or weight my options if I really want to upgrade to an iPhone 5, just to get a hair larger screen.

I dont dare update my iOS however. iOS 6 isnt jailbroke yet. And a few of the VERY USEFUL apps on there I use, Apple wont approve, so they can only be installed via a Jailbroke phone. So, here i wait...

and here i sit.. debating this.. but, i missed the "big picture".. I missed how my thoughts may not be alone, and my thoughts affect my apple stock (all 0.5 shares of it. LOL).

I think Apple could go way down in the next few years with this new CEO.
Cook and Jobs have two totally different mentalities.

He released the phone knowing there were issues with the maps. He should of kept Google maps till the next iphone 5S. The metal backing is causing alot of issues, metal easily dents, Iphones scratches new out of the box.

I'm keeping my iphone 4S best phone I ever had. I just wish I hadn't dowloaded the new ios 6. I already used the maps and i'm not liking it. Although I do like the panaramic picture taking. It will be usefull when on vacations.

Interesting take on Apple, I own some of thier stuff but read about the lawsuit they just won over Google and Samsung. My brother tells me Samsung manufactures parts I think the screen and processors for the Iphone, and the Iphone 5s apparently does not have google apps anymore like the maps and I think youtube. So I would be really weary about Apple stock right now as the Iphone is certainly not the be all end all of phones, it does have a huge following but I think the Samsung/Android/Google phones will cut into that market big time if they have not already done so. I'd be careful buying apple unless they come out with some new breakthrough products again.

I'm not a techie guy, so anyone else please elaborate on this.

Apple is certainly a good discussion.... but I think you guys missed my point.

It's not about 'apple' --- it's about LEARNING from SOMETHING LIKE THIS and how it pertains to the STOCK of a company.... substitute ANY company.


Because -- if I've learned anything in the last 30 years -- it's that NOBODY can tell me in advance - what's going to happen and how things are going to react. And since we're not trying to "game" the market a possible hiccup shouldn't matter.

The thing is - nobody knows - it's all just "blah blah blah".... and here's why I've learned not to bet my hunches.... because the minute you're absolutely, positively, certain, that APPLE is going to sell off.... and you take a million dollar short position ---- you'll get up in the morning and they'll have announced a "fix" for the issue and the stock rises 50 points.

I was really trying to get everyone to look at "the market" in a different way -- and to try to see and feel --- and pay attention to --- the inputs that already affect you -- to think about them and to try to use this 'input' to help you sort out your investments. So let's say you're ready to plunk down another $2500 in the market --- and you're trying to diversify --- and you have nothing in the industrial space.... so you're a car guy and you're thinking about FORD or GM... Stop and check your own senses for how you see "the market" -- everyone buying a new Ford pickup truck? Or is Toyota Tundra replacing all those Ford F150's....maybe that "view" is worth exploring and you do some homework and now start to compare Ford - GM - AND Toyota.

I bought Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) because every time I went there - the joint was absolutely jammed with people and a line out the door.... I went home -- and started checking them out... at the time it was trading at $54 a share...

I'd bought Apple (AAPL) for the very same reason -- every time I went by one of their stores there was a line of people buying stuff... at the time - the shares traded for $85 a share...

But I also want you to pay attention to what you see on an ongoing basis! That same "sense" for something that was just beginning.... can be used to help you SELL as well as buy. Sometimes knowing when to sell is every bit as important as knowing when to buy. So keep your eyes peeled for changes -- what your friends are saying -- what are YOU thinking about "X" product line or company.

What trends are all the kids CHANGING to -- from "Nintendo" to Xbox?? From McDonalds to Chipotle? From Nike to New Balance or Sperry Top siders?
And more importantly -- do you have investments where this "trend" might be your friend..... OR NOT....

Here's an old one.... I remember all the kids could talk about was MY SPACE... it took about a year --- and I never heard MY SPACE again -- it was all FACEYBOOK... There was a clear trend there! But sadly that stock trade didn't work out --- but the signs were very clear!

BTW --- The "talk" here about Apple and the maps app etc --- is very very interesting -- because there seems to be a little "back lash" feeling and as I had suspected... a lot of people are or might just rethink their next phone purchase. To me -- that could be HUGE.

This is what I mean when I say "pay attention to what your kids or your friends are talking about". It MIGHT be just the beginning of something -- good or bad... but talk like this when it's all one way ---- can be very very important.

I wished I was able to invest in LS engine production... separate from GM --- just based on websites like LAT G. It's pretty obvious if you had an investment in SBC Inc.... you would maybe have been well served putting some dough in LS Inc. :cheers:

Greg, i really like and agree with your thinking. Very much the "lynch" school of thought, investing based on what we can see, touch, smell.

While we can analyze all day long, we need to be "big picture" thinkers...

Regarding Apple, on one hand I think they are getting greedy with the "need" of a new connector which has me concerned about the leadership (more concerned with profit rather than consumer quality), and on the other hand the Itv coming out is highly anticipated which could send the stock soaring yet again...

I don't think greed is good, I think growth is great...

I agree....


Yes -- big picture thinking! The Peter Lynch school of investing works - has worked for many years - and for those that don't know who we're talking about = He ran (built!) the largest mutual fund - Magellan Fund. He ran that fund back when mutual fund ownership WORKED.


I'm not sure about Apple being "greedy"... I (we should all) love a company that commands loyalty - and margin - and strives to make the very best product money can buy... Rolls Royce - Ferrari - Rolex - Apple... nothing wrong with companies like this. The PROBLEM becomes when a company starts to think that they're successful and doesn't really need a customer... (Microsoft? RIM? IBM years ago?) or puts their interest and desires (Apples war with Google?) ahead of it's customer...Why go out of your way to piss people off? Just give the customer what he wants and laugh all the way to the bank. Don't change the Coke formula! (Remember that?):lol:

Seems almost like people want constant change now-a-days though. I'd hate to be in charge of a major company simply because I believe in leaving well enough alone many times.

Interesting perspective Greg, I do agree with your outlook on quality.

I do feel bad for these tech companies to provide "instant gratifcation" for a demanding impatient public.I see it everyday with my company, a lot of my clients want my product " yesterday and for nothing$".

It's also getting harder for us tO invest in tech because of the speed at which things move....and I'm a speed freak lol...

Personally -- I have ZERO invested in tech -- despite the fact that it is tech that has created my personal net worth! Go figure that one!


A couple reasons for that... and they're decidedly real simple. Tech typically doesn't pay decent dividends... and more importantly... I'm not willing to do the WORK that it takes to keep up with the fast pace of innovation that drives this sector.

I'm not taking the time to figure out if I should invest in Apple because of the phone --- or Samsung because they make the glass (I don't know if they do or not!) for the phone... or some other part of it.

I love to read about what's going on - I like using the products - I'm a tech guy without being a techie. But I've said it before on here - I'm done trying to hit the next big deal. Been there done that. It worked well - but I'm luckier than most - and I live in an area where there is more than a little opportunity to be involved and we're well connected in that area etc. But I've lost a fortune doing that too...

I like investing in stuff that I am certain is not probably going to burn me with a sudden change.

Terbacky stocks have growth and pay a great dividend... and I'm sure people are so stupid that they're going to keep on smoking.

Energy needs pipes - refineries - and we're still using it for heat and transportation and industry. Don't see that changing by Friday morning!

Food and drink... everyone in the world needs it. Let's watch the average weight of the Chinese grow. :willy: :rofl:

You get my point....

I'm too stupid to figure out which company is going to invent the next super drug... but I'm pretty sure bandaids, toothpaste, and mouthwash are going to keep selling. :unibrow:

In my personal portfolio -- I balance all this with a bit of risk. I prefer high yield corporate bond funds (not individual bonds) AS LONG AS the economy seems to not be going south! So I'm watching the economy closely because if that turns south - I'm out of corporates!

I'm pretty sure people out there are still leveraged and that there's money to be made by borrowing low and lending high (the oldest game in the world other than hookers!).... so I like companies that can do that... but if interest rates "change" I'm OUT of that in a heartbeat -- and I need to be out of that BEFORE interest rates change -- So I'm keeping my ear to the ground for ANY sense that might happen. I can jump in and out of this type of investment in a nanosecond - so it's (so far) a good place to pick up income and park cash.

This is a good article about the upcoming elections -- and the possible outcome -- and more importantly - the authors opinion on what the outcome might do to your investments..


http://www.cnbc.com/id/49232956

Sounds like they are predicting stocks to be on sale towards the end of the year and maybe beginning of next year. And that's about the only thing I can say without getting political.

You COKE (KO) owners will be happy with the dividend you'll see in your account today!


I love free money!!


:unibrow:

Funny! And yes -- let's not mix politics in here - even though it is important!

Politically we have some giant events ahead of us.... the elections... and the fiscal cliff. IMHO both may provide BUYING opportunities for the long term investor. I'm just MENTALLY preparing myself for a roller coaster of highs and lows. There's really just no way to predict what is going to happen -- and I'm just not going to dump stocks that pay me to own them -- over the possible higher taxes I "might" have to pay on that income. There's also little alternative investment that I can make to earn the same return (total return). So considering I'm just Joe average man --- I think when people really look at what they can do with their money -- the tax issue will not really be such a big deal.

The bigger issue - longer term - is whether all of this gangs up on us and stalls the economy. And IMHO that would be a catastrophe as the FED and the rest of the world is in no position to provide more bail outs etc. We're out of bullets. That's why I think cooler heads will prevail and we'll just keep pluggin' along. OR I should say -- that's my hope -- and that's how I'm going to position my investments... until something happens to change my mind. :cheers:

Well, I'm glad I'm in this for the long run. I'll be ready to max my Roth out in the beginning of the next year so I can definitely buy some more stocks then. I also believe I have my new savings account squared away so I can start moving some money from there to buy stocks in just a normal brokerage account I also have.

Well said and I'm right there with you hoping for the best.


I've made more money in dividend payments on five stocks since April than I have since the start of the year with just my savings account. The savings account has about 1/3 more money in it as well. I'm happy. :D

When I get free time at work, I read through this thread a few pages at a time. There is some great free advice and I need to put some action behind it. I have been a saver since my teenage years and I was very fortunate to have had grandparents and parents that started me off with a little nest egg. Now that I have finished with college/med school/residency, I am looking forward to being a little more proactive with my strategies.

Good to hear Stephen! And lucky you!


I think that's the main message you'll pick up from this thread --- which is, it isn't hard - you don't have to have a degree in economics.... you just need to learn a little and pay a little attention and you'll do just fine!

I'm living proof that a dummy can do it!

Sweet. :cheers:

Yeah buddy!


Here's what I love about a stock like this.... I don't care what the political situation is - or isn't - I'm not worried about any fallout from a name like this.

I have a $24K "unrealized" gain --- and it's paid me 11K so far this year in dividends. So you sleep well at night -- your money is growing without you having to do anything and they're sending you cash! WTH is wrong with that?!?!:woot:

Just got another raise. Phillips 66 (PSX) has increased its stock dividend 25%

Pretty nice since that resulted from the spinoff from ConocoPhilips (COP) and you're still getting a nice dividend from COP on top of the "new" dividend from Phillips 66 (PSX)...


Don't ya just love the stock market??!? Where else does your money grow like this??:thumbsup: :D

I'm glad I posted my question about the COP PSX split, went thru the hassle of getting the international acct, isnt easy in australia, and kept the PSX stock......good move for me.
Thanks for the lessons

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :cheers:

I'm a young finance guy by trade and I can say that this thread has gotten me to use the critical thinking I generally apply at work to my own finances. My old 401k was languishing in some crazy aggressive foreign funds and I've decided to take control of the "employees" I have and put them to work in an IRA that is performing nicely. Thanks for the perspective adjustment guys!!

:rofl: :rofl:


Jeff -- Don't you just love thinking about a buck as an "employee"? I'm telling you the honest to gawd truth -- when I named 'em that.... it brought a whole new perspective to my investing. It was like "man -- put your back into it!"... I was crackin' the whip! Some of you slackers are going back to school! :rofl:



Here's another thing I've learned -- and thought about A LOT.....


If all those old "brokers" that want to tell me how it's done - are so f'n good at investing.... why are they still workin'? :woot:

Hello All, Just wanted to check in and say that i am still reading the posts. I just dont have a lot to update on since i just opened my schwab account 3-4 months ago and im not in the day trading business. I have enjoyed some dividend payments though and my Kinder Morgan account is looking pretty slick!! Anyways, dont have much to say other than im glad this thread is still alive and that there are always new people finding this "gem" and taking the time to read though it all! Party on!!:lateral:

^^^^^^ Pro Street..... Good for you!! Thanks for joining in!


++++++++++++++++++++++++




Guys -- Another free money post.... HAHAHAHAHA

AT&T (T) is trading "ex" dividend today.





++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Another "non" political statement -- that has everything to do with politics -- but only as related to the "market".



You've heard me say a zillion times that you can't "game" the market - and that when you're absolutely positively certain that "X" is going to go one way - something will happen and "X" will do exactly the opposite of what everyone "knew" it was going to do.


Obama was hands down winning..... the market has been waiting..... and people have been discussing what their strategy would be going forward and blah blah blah....so if you'd sold in order to get ready for the tax changes that have been put out there.... Then all of a sudden BAM -- Romney comes on strong and the market is off to the races... and you'd be left scrambling.


This is why I say ---- stay the course. Don't try to game the market because the market will beat you like a bad dog. Be aware - be thinking - be prepared - but don't be gamed out or in. Buy great stuff - collect your dividends - keep putting aside money for your next buy, and buy when you're ready. Sometimes you'll buy high - sometimes you'll buy low... but buy you must. 20 years will go by - and you'll look back and you'll have a nice pile of dough that's paying you a nice income. Fail to do this strategy... try to beat the market... try to get rich quick by plowing into the next big sure deal... and you'll join the ranks of all the people that are waiting on the government to take care of you.

Found this on the front page of NBC news (web)... clicked the link to see if there was something "news worthy"... and while it states the obvious for the most part -- there is a good strategy added that I've not seen before.


http://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2012/...e-magic-number



If you don't want to take the time to read it --- it's basically saying that you need 8 times your last years salary at retirement. And that to get there you need to have saved 1 time your salary at age 35 -- and by 45 you need to have saved 3 times your salary - and 5 times by 55. Which puts you within punting distance to hit the 8 times goal at 65.


Trust me... it's much more fun to play golf on Mondays knowing you're not going to work on Tuesday... and you're leaving for Hawaii on Wednesday. You have to plan (invest) for that NOW... not later.

Great article, Greg. More of what I liked about it:

In total, it seems like reasonable assumptions and actually made me breath a little easy based on where I currently am!

Well said Greg! I know people have said this in previous posts, but you should really consider writing some sort of investing book, "Investing for Motorheads" or something. Seriously, before finding this thread i would have never actually opened up a brokerage account and started investing. Sure, i would have thought about it, but never actually done it because i was too scared of what i didnt know!! You have knack for explaining things in simple terms that are easy to grasp understand. THANKS to you and everyone else who helped make this thread what it is!!

Thanks!


I can explain simple -- because I AM simple!


It's taken me years to get a full (okay maybe half) an understanding for how this stuff works... and therefore it makes it pretty easy to "condense" -- especially if we keep it to "investing 102" style. Because - it really is "just that easy".

Brokers - and people like that... they want you to be fully dependent on them! They make it SOUND complicated so that you think they add value... thus pay them.

My true honest to god opinion of that is - what a load of crap!


If you can brush your teeth - you can pick good companies to invest in. :lol:

I'm right there with you, Brian. We're at similar points in our lives. At times I get concerned, especially since I still don't own a home. Other times though, I have to remind myself it's going to take time, and while I'm not there yet, I'm doing alright.

While this is NOT a stock pickers thread... I still like to use single names (stocks) for educational purposes.

Watch APPLE (AAPL) shares...

This is another stock that falls in that "priced for perfection" category (IMHO)... and here we have the iPhone 5 release and now there is a strike at a plant that makes them.... so will that affect their earnings and sales numbers? Long or short term? Blah blah blah.

The strike isn't a big deal - stuff like this happens all the time... we're certainly not unfamiliar with strikes or other hiccups that affect a company or industry... but WHEN YOUR STOCK IS PRICED FOR PERFECTION --- then we have another matter entirely. And we have an educational event to watch.

I'm personally happy to NOT be invested in Apple... and I have made a bunch of dough off this stock. BUT as it reached a price point where a 1000 shares cost $650K to play - that became a point for me to just "move on". It became a percentage game to me... again -- explaining my thinking so that you all can gain some different ways to think about stuff on your own -- a 10% move UP from $650 a share is $65 -- so you have to ask yourself at that point - are you really investing - or are you just gambling and hoping like hell that someone else is willing to buy your shares at the higher price. Here's my personal take.... I'm joe average guy in thinking power.... and I'M having double and triple thoughts about buying it at $650 (in fact I wouldn't / didn't). If I'm having that thought - don't you think others are too? And if you'd bought at $450 or $550... and now have a HUGE gain.... are you thinking about buying more -- or are you having thoughts of SELLING and locking in an outsized gain. If it moved up another $65 to $700+ would you think about selling?

That's what I want you to watch and learn from. This is a "market" -- I don't give too hoots about "metrics" and P/E ratios - and whether or not the talking heads come on TV to tell you all manor of financial facts. In the END -- it's people making a personal decision about their money. PERIOD. The thinking is about when is enough profit in a stock, enough? Not so much about how much you "might" leave on the table if you sold today rather than next month. You start to worry about LOSING that profit. The minute the shares go backwards --- more people start thinking (and seeing!) the "loss" even though that "loss" is only a small percentage of their outsized gain. We're all GREEDY!

So --- just like cars (or houses!) -- when everyone is paying way too much for ordinary cars on Barrett Jackson --- things are good..... BUT when the prices start to fall --- and they fell FAST.... and then people start thinking -- "well... my car was worth $200 grand -- and now I'm seeing bids of ONLY $125 grand -- I better sell while I can still get that much money!". Doesn't matter that they didn't sell at $200 --- it matters what they might miss if they don't sell now. FEAR sets in! Fear and Greed make markets. Regardless of what anyone says. Learn from it. Learn when to be greedy and sell.... and learn when fear drives your decisions... I love to buy when everyone else is trembling (thus selling) and you need to learn to SELL when they're all greedy and buying. You also need to watch and control you're own fear and greed... That's why old adages like "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered"... and "buy low and sell high"...

I'm not saying that APPLE will go lower - or higher - or won't be the perfect DIP buying scenario.... What I'm saying is that if you're not invested in it - use it's swings to learn from it. Ask yourself how or what you'd be doing "IF". Then that's a reference for your actions when you're ready to take the plunge in some other name. Are you buying in greed mode or are you selling out of fear - are you investing or are you gambling? Learn to check yourself it will make a difference in your investing. :cheers:

Okay -- this is difficult -- but I want people that are following this thread to be really on their toes... and that means really being ready. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY can tell you where the stock market is going - either up or down... and if you go back and read this thread - you'll see time and time again warnings about what happens when things go south and how you might react to that.

If you're a TRUE investor.... and you own the kinds of stocks we've discussed here (not just the actual names - but the KINDS)... Then what you're set up for is the dividend stream - and if you're re-investing that dividend then you actually do better in the long term if stocks go down. Why? Because your dividend buys more shares - and the actual calculated percentage the dividend pays, goes UP..

If you're investments are in 401's / IRA's / ROTH etc... then you're invested for the long haul. Not only is this the time TO retirement - but for as long as you live AFTER retirement. Your money doesn't just suddenly stop earning on the day you retired. You just became Chairman of the Board and you have your "employees" still out there working hard for you every day! Stay the course.

If you're saving/investing/gambling money that you might need SHORT TERM.... Then I'd say you might become more defensive. More defensive means to take some profits if you have some... and to sell anything that you might have bought "just because" and you think maybe it's going to give you a short term gain.

Having CASH is always being KING.... Having CASH allows you to breathe easy and allows you to buy at lower prices etc. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit. Remember that this is for investments OUTSIDE of the above ROTH/IRA/401. We're talking taxable accounts.

I've raised my cash hoard substantially. What I've personally done is to take the cash out of the places I "park" it... which are high yielding bond ETF etc.
With the elections undecided - the world seems to be saying there is slowing growth or no growth - China's slowing... I want to be READY to be able to buy real good companies at lower prices. I want to be ready to add to my Coke and my Con Ed and my McDonalds etc... If I'm WRONG... then the worst thing I've done is have cash to buy at higher prices - which will give me lower yields going forward.

Those of you that have gotten in the market "recently" -- probably don't have gains - or have very slim gains... But if you invested in DIVIDEND paying stocks then that is where your gains are going to come from!

What I'm talking about here (as far as my selling recently is concerned) are those names where I've just used cash to generate outsized dividends in speculative stuff. That's why I've said at the top of this post that this is going to be difficult. There's a distinct difference of where you go to raise cash. I've posted many times the names I use for this purpose... and all I'm saying now - is that I'm going to UNPARK it in those and actually hold the cash because I think there COULD BE/MAY BE a buying opportunity going forward.

Does this make sense?

What I'm SENSING is that people that have huge gains -- which is anyone that's been in the market in the last TWO years.... they may be taking some of those gains off that table. I'm seeing/sensing this in Apple and Google and some of the other big gainers... and frankly - it's what I'd be doing if I owned those. We know the tax rate for THIS YEARS long term gains - we don't know what that's going to look like going forward... at 15% LTCG - This is the year to be taking them. Especially if you're a "1%" earner... and the market is where those earners put their money.

I personally think the USA is on the upswing! Everyone I talk to says business is good! If you're a realtor it's GREAT! Car sales are good... housing sales are good...

So I hope what I'm trying to say is not misunderstood -- I'm just saying that I think I might get a buying opportunity... but I have not sold my steady - great name - dividend payers.... I've just sold the cash parking positions.

Of course I fully expect those to take off to the moon now that I've done that. The man knows - and WILL work to make me look like an idiot. :rofl:

Greg what address should I use to just mail you my paychecks? :) Seriously though your insight has made me add to my strategy. I think at my age I can park "extra cash" in the dividend paying stocks and re-invest the dividends. I think the important thing that i am realizing is that no matter what the dollar amount invested now I have the next 30 years to make it work for me.

Thanks again for your insight and experience in this tread!

Nick

HAHAHAHA


Nick --- That is EXACTLY the kind of thinking I'm trying to promote. Forget todays price - or next weeks - or next years.... Just get in - put more in when possible - and you'll be richly rewarded in the future.


:cheers:

I understand what you're saying Greg and I agree. I intend to buy more stocks soon in a brokerage account that's outside of normal retirement accounts. Right now, I'm just waiting for the outcome of the election and to see what Congress intends to do about the fiscal cliff or whatever made up term they are calling it today. I figure I might "lose" 3-4 months of investing time but I'd rather be patient and see some resolution to these concerns. Besides, I'm not really "losing" anything. My future stock purchase money is sitting in a savings account making 1%. I've never seen a negative interest rate on a savings account. So I can't lose. I just won't earn a lot.

I'm glad you're at ease and like what you're seeing in the economy for the most part. You understand this more than me and are more connected and informed as well. So that helps me feel better because frankly, I'm not so confident in what's going on right now. I'm confident it will get better eventually, but how long until eventually becomes now though?

Excellent!

Markets don't like "uncertainty" -- they will SELL OFF when there is uncertainty - because people don't like standing (possibly) in front of a train.
Nobody knows if there is a train - but they don't want to stand on the tracks just in case.

For the average investor - it's futile to try to "time" events... in fact - it's IMPOSSIBLE. Thus the "just stay the course".

BUT if people have suddenly decided they should invest some "quick money" recently... then my advice would be to stand down.... let the political and economic uncertainty become clearer... then pounce if it turns out to be a good entry point.

The market is always a "percentage game" --- 10% is a big move...

10% on a grand isn't much money... we spend that going out to eat... but 10% on the kind of cash that I'm playing with - that buys a house! So I'm "on it" all the time. :cheers:

Greg,

I wanted to let you know the help you and this thread have given me.

I made some changes yesterday on my account, and I am up 11.5% from a year ago. As an example...my AT&T went from $4900 at the start to $6000 yesterday. I know that was a great year, and I dont expect that always, but I will take a good year.

I owe you a steak dinner.