God bless America!


You don't owe me ANYTHING! Just knowing that things are working - or even NOT working - is good enough!

Yes AT&T has had a nice run - but that run is linked to all the new phones and iPad type devices that are coming on! I think AT&T would have been left for dead if they hadn't seen the move in the cellular market. And the market and the demands for speed and data are going to propel AT&T and Verizon to ever new highs.

They pay a great dividend - and have great cash flow... and are well run. What more can a guy want?

I used some cash to buy 2000 shares of Apple today.... It has dipped down... we're going into the 4th quarter - which means XMAS shopping will be in full swing - you have the new iPhone - perhaps a mini iPad - and I was just at the mall and the store (which they just quadrupled in size) was MOBBED.... by comparison - there was nobody in the Microsoft store except the blue shirted employees. This is the Peter Lynch way of investing... :lol:

I received 3 new iPhone 5's today -- they had been on order since the release date... I like the new look and feel.

The maps thing is still a hassle -- and has made me mad a couple of times... but I just downloaded the Google iPhone map app -- and that seems to work just fine.

If I can get 5% gain between now and Xmas.... I'd be happy!

Once again -- This thread is not about individual names -- and I'm not saying ANYONE should go buy a stock or sell a stock etc --- I'm just kind of blogging about what I'm doing and my thinking. I had posted previously about Apple (AAPL) and that maybe it's "over" as far as a big run from where it was -- but you have to keep an open mind -- and I see the stores jammed and people waiting to buy (pent up demand).... ya gotta rethink sometimes - thus my post today. We'll see how that works out.

PS: It is the only stock in ANY of my accounts that pays such a crappy little dividend -- so it HAS to have growth in the share price - or it gets the boot!

BTW --- The LTE is SMOKING fast compared to the 4G of the iPhone 4s....


It's like WOW! Fast.....


That's the only reason I upgraded - because I do lots of road trips and want the phone to be basically a laptop replacement and the speed DOES make a huge difference!

Greg, just remember that AT&T makes more profit when the sales of the iphone slows down. The stock has had a good ride recently due to the slow down of iphone4S sales. People were waiting for the iphone 5 to come out.
AT&T loses -$200 for evey iphone sale.

Sure they do - and they also sign you up for another 2 year contract! If they were losing money - you wouldn't be getting a 5+% dividend!

And remember that people are signing up for "data plans" for their iPads by the gazillions....

And remember that the "unlimited" data on your iPhone - ISN'T unlimited... if you read the fine print.

And remember - not everyone is going from an iPhone to another iPhone - there are MILLIONS of people that have yet to get a "smart phone" -- and smart phone plans are NOT the $9.95 el cheapo monthly --- the iPhone is like $50 bucks a month! So they're making money on that upgrade cycle.

It's all about the "up sale". Margins are better when you up sale!:thumbsup:

:cheers:

I know some readers are into Chevron (CVX)....

I was just thinking that when you have a dip in the shares of a company like this because of an "event" -- it usually turns out to be a good entry point. WE have to think longer term than one quarter or two quarters. Chevron has had the misfortune to have a fire at their refinery (California) and has stated that this will affect a couple quarters... well no kidding! It's like if you had a fire at your rental house! Yeah... you'd be stressed out and you'd lose income while it's being repaired... but that doesn't break the original premise upon which you bought the rental does it. It's a mere hiccup.

This stock has been trading in a range of 116 to 118 -- and all of a sudden today it's on sale for 112... That's like almost 5% off... WHOO HOO!


Again -- I'm not pitching one stock over any other --- I just happened to be poking around (as I always do) and noticed this "story" and thought well --- right here is the kind of an "on sale" event that I've talked about before.... A perfectly good stock that for whatever reason is now at a better price.

Don't ya just LOVE dividends?? Altria (MO) put some cash into your accounts this morning.

Now I can afford to buy a 100 gallons of fuel for the new "rig" when I pick it up this afternoon! :thumbsup: :unibrow:

Greg do you have a preferred service you use when purchasing? Do you pay a broker or are you using Fidelity, Ameritrade, or similar?

Nick

Picking it up today? congrats...

What does Altria do? i've never heard of them (sometimes my head is in the sand....cause my wifey likes the beach)

I was just like you in April, I heard it mentioned here a few times. So I did some research. Its the parent company of Philip Morris tobacco company. However I did a bit more research and found that they own a slew of Wine Estates up and down the west coast, 17 in total.
With the amount of wine that is consumed at my house I had to buy into it, been keeping them in buisness for years and didn't know it. LOL
Its been a good stock.

That is funny! My house too. I will look into....

That "depends" --- I use a brokerage for all my Muni Bonds.... I use Schwab for all discussions (buys and sales) for this thread... I have two other large brokerages that handles other pieces for me. But for purposes of this thread they're all done via Schwab. I like schwab for research and for just general purposes. It's easy to navigate their site -- I've used it for years and familiar with all the features etc. Otherwise there's no particular reason.

SIN STOCK -- Tobacco!

Guess I should have waited. The little man said "Greg's in! Take 'er down!"

I hate that little guy!


:cheers:

I like it better when you drive down stocks I can afford. :D

From CNN money....
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/16/tech...html?iid=HP_LN

They even set a day for the press event, with only 1 month before prime holiday shopping. It will be interesting to see how much cannibalization happens on the current ipad line up that starts at $399. I am guessing $199-$250 retail on the mini since that is where the market is on the smaller 7" screens. They need volume to replace any lost sales of the $399+ models at a 2:1 rate by taking market share, which they have 70% of it.

My Apple (AAPL) buy is looking a smidgen better after today's 15 point advance!

I'm busy just road trippin' in the new rig - and not checking stocks etc... or Lat- G much either.

I kinda like not hangin' on the computer all day like when I'm home or in the shed.

:cheers: :woot:

Hope you all are doing well. I too have been away from my computer..

Hope to harass you guys again soon.

Mike

Up a ho-hum 1.3% today... Harass that! Today was one of thosre days... If you miss it, the year looks a lot different.

Spot on info! And very very true!

OUCH.....



:lol:

I love "headlines"..... :rolleyes:


Since I have been out running "the rig" around (thru 7 states) I have ignored the market and my accounts. Thus the beauty of dividends...

This morning I'm just poking around and I see Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is up nicely. So I click on the symbol to see what's up. I always scroll down the page to see the news... and the two top headlines are this:


"Kinder Morgan says 3Q net income rises 32 percent"


I wish my 3 quarter NET income went UP 32%.... WOW! That's pretty nice!


The next headline reads:


"Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Lp (KMP) misses Q3 EPS by 1c"


Really? Reading the story tells you that they "missed" the "estimate" by 1c (one penny per share).....


Here's my "take away" from this stuff.... Depending on which headline you read (which one your newspapers business section decided to run) may affect your thinking and your view of the world. One would be "holy cow -- they're UP 32%" -- the other would be "wow... they MISSED... that's got to be bad".

You have to poke around and when you see "news" - you need to get active and see if there's more to the story.

I'm not saying (because I haven't really dug into the two stories) which one of these is "more important"... I'm just saying that the headlines are so 180* different that if you only saw one of them it would make a difference in how you'd view "the quarter".

The takeaway is the fact that markets prices already price future expectations. The first article could have read, Net Income up 1000000%, but if the market expected 10000002% then it doesn't matter. They already priced in the assumption. So being up doesn't matter unless its up above expectations.

Google last week got beat down because they might have had a good quarter, but didn't meet expectations. The problem there is GOOG is too cool for school and doesn't provide guidance to the street, so the "expectations" set in the market are generally not very well baked and you end up with big swings like last week when actual numbers are reported.

I think you missed my point... and it's an investing 102 point...

There were two DISTINCT headlines... one quiet positive - one more negative.

My points are not about the actual facts as stated -- but more a general - "here's some things to think about" and if you see ONE article - it might pay you to investigate further rather than just relying on a headline.


Your points are valid - just not really related to what I was trying to get across. "Expectations" are very real and set the bar and for a trader - they can win or lose based on these expected or "whisper" numbers. We could argue all day about that. Personally I think they're ridiculous because they're nothing but "best guesses" = there is a high number by one analyst and there is a lower number by another, and everything in between. Personally -- I'd prefer to hear/read etc what the company says about it's business going forward vs. someones best guess.

Remember too that when I'm writing... I'm trying to speak to a very broad base of understanding. Many here are brand new to investing in anything. I'm writing to help them understand and perhaps learn from events etc that are new to them. :cheers:

BTW -- Google is another one of those "priced for perfection" stocks I've discussed. I don't care if it's Google -- or pick any other name... My point and writing would be about investing in these "kinds" of stocks where all the planets better be aligned PERFECTLY - because if not - they get killed. That may or may not be a buying opportunity. That depends on a persons view and risk tolerance etc. My Investing 102 point would always be about UNDERSTANDING these kinds of stocks before you invest in them and what and how the market will operate. And understanding the terms such as "priced for perfection" which is used quite often.

From a long term point of view, wouldn't it better that a company grew by 32% even if they did indeed miss expectations by 1 penny? I realize the price of the stock is based on expected earnings but 32% growth year to year is good. I personally would rather know they had great growth. Am I wrong in thinking that's more important to me since I'm long term?

It can be real good and it can be real bad... the important thing to determine is why this 32% increase in top-line growth yielded no benefits to bottom line. If this is readily explainable and somewhat of a one-time deal, then it should be back to business as usual. If this is not, then further evaluation is needed....

Growth always (usually :lol: ) trumps all else... unless they just have really inept management.

Growth has to be measured by different metrics.... Sales (top line) - Profit (bottom line) etc.

It is always a "it depends" metric. Thus you always have to look deeper at a P&L to find out - or at least try to understand - how a business is doing. Some companies that are "new" -- let's use Faceybook as an example -- might just be judged on top line growth - because their expenses are going to be steep as a "start up"... but eventually they will be expected to produce a profit! A more mature company should be able to control their expenses and therefore, gains in top line should also be seen in the bottom line.

This is one reason that just basing a decision to buy or not buy on one metric is kind of foolish. P/E's (Price to Earnings ratio) are one of those metrics that are often sighted as being "too high" or perhaps "low" making the stock seem like a "value". I just don't think any single metric should be a basis for any decision. It's more like a good engine... it needs to be the sum total of all the parts and they need to be working together.

That makes sense. You need substance and not just fluff since we aren't gambling here. The history of the stock value and the company can be used to determine if indeed the company is having both top and bottom line growth, correct? Because as Brian mentioned, if it only had top line and no bottom line, something's amiss and I'd imagine the stock wouldn't do well throughout history. At least I would think that's correct.

I guess I'm just trying to tie the simple approach of looking at a stock's history to be a good indicator of its potential as a viable investment to a deeper understanding of what or why its price history is what it is.

Yes --- growth in both top and bottom line is pretty darned important... and the stock price "normally" will reward those companies that can show growth in both those areas. Newer companies don't "normally" -- note I have to say normally lest someone find one company to use as an example to show I'm wrong :D - don't pay dividends etc because they don't have that long history of steady earnings. Higher P/E ratios are sometimes given to companies that can show they have outsized growth... because folks are willing to pay more for them and hope that they grow into the higher P/E.

Another "Investing 102" term..... UNCERTAINTY.

If you've ever listened to a business news channel - you've heard this term. "The markets hate uncertainty". To me - uncertainty equals undecided or unsure. What's that do to the market? A market takes BUYERS and sellers... if you're uncertain - you may NOT decide to buy.... and when that happens you get a down market.

I had warned in an earlier post that I thought as we approached the election that we might see a choppy market... people are unsure what their tax situation is going forward. They're unsure what the economy is going to do. There is no clear picture of what's ahead.

What you are seeing is exactly what I had expected. It's not rocket science... "WE" are normal human beings... and if we are uncertain - then so is everyone else. It's the same thing I've been preaching about when you're buying - use your own gut sense about a business... long lines at the check out? Great! An empty store - empty parking lot.... not so great. You're friends finding work and buying houses? Or are they selling everything they own and collecting unemployment... Obviously this "depends" - it depends on where you live - what industry you're in - your own economic surroundings etc. But in broad general terms - you get a sense for what's going on around you. You either feel optimistic or negative - OR - UNSURE. Uncertainty/unsure is the deer in the headlight... which means no commitment.

Now -- add to this -- we're in "EARNINGS SEASON" which means companies are just starting to report on their earnings -- and so far these seem to be coming DOWN... The market may have been a little optimistic about the "turn around". I think the USA is turning around - but we have those across the pond doing worse - which is more important? I think we're seeing that in companies reports such as UPS and FED EX etc reporting slowing "international" business. I would certainly expect that given the news for the last many months.

I've said in earlier posts that this year has been AMAZING -- it's been an investors dream! Everything has seemingly gone straight up. That's an easy market to feel good about. It's easy to buy. It's easy to hold. I personally have some outsized paper gains. Long term investors - people that have been in the market for the last 3+ years have seen their investments go up 100% in many cases... so now - what to do? Sell? Hold? Unsure? When it's unsure - they're not buying! Right? Maybe they just sell a little bit to lock in some capital gains at this years 15% rate... No biggie there -- unless you're in an uncertain position and then the buyers just aren't there to LIFT the price.

On big down days -- the one thing I have to remind myself of.... even if a stock is down $5 - that means SOMEONE paid that price for it... so there are buyers out there... they're just bargain hunting. They may only be nibbling. They may be averaging down.. but someone is buying or you wouldn't have ANY market at all!

NOW ---- If you're in dividend stocks for the long haul.... then you're dividend is buying at these lower prices - which means you buy more shares per dividend period which means you're compounding your returns FASTER... and buddy... That's a GOOD THING!! Remember that as the price comes down... the percentage of dividend rises... you get more shares that pay you a higher PERCENTAGE return and next quarter you pick up even more shares and so on.

In actual fact YOU WISH you'd have invested in 2007 - and the market went down another 30% and you'd bought a ton of shares CHEAP! 'Cause right now you'd be jumping for joy and wishing you'd have put even more money "to work"! :cheers:

Well said Greg..........thanks AGAIN. :thumbsup:

How old is Warren Buffet? Obviously he isn't letting age impact his fundamental strategies. :thumbsup:

Don't even worry about that. Chump change or not its change. You have to start somewhere and you got a great start getting into this thread....if I had this when I moved my 401K 12 years ago I'd be alot better. Its what you do now and in the near future. Pay attention.


Thanks for the dividen list Greg, saved me a ton of time. :hail:


I have a feeling February is going to be buying season.

On the road === AGAIN! Did Seattle to Ogden... just arrived... On to Tucson tomorrow... and road racin' on Saturday and Sunday... then off to SEMA!


EEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHAAAAAAAA


Don't expect me to post much... it's dangerous to drive and text you know!!:unibrow: :D

Thanks to this thread I've opened a brokerage account and am now going to fund a ROTH account for the 1st time.

The problem is how can one best choose among their current pool of diversified stocks - the one(s) most suitable for ROTH investment? - Im 41 btw

My thinking is to buy all 5G worth of 1 stock and then add another 5G in a different sector each year thereafter.

Which among my current (17) stocks would be best to pick for ROTH? Should steady eddys always edge out the more riskier plays? ie Coke, Kmb vs ATT??

On one hand people will always drink Coke and need to wipe their behinds but- the integration and ubiquity of smart phone/tablets in our lives these days makes investing in more ATT that much more tempting.

Is the better solution to spread the 5G among 5 sectors at 1G each? Continued thanks for this thread that keeps on giving. :bow:

Personally, i decided to do $1k increments in my ROTH IRA. Helped me start to diversify better I felt. And I can start trickling in those dividends sooner on multiple items.

I agree.... better to buy 5 different stocks and then next year buy 5 more
the third year you can go back and add to the 5 you want to...

Exactly what I did back in February. Up 20 percent ytd

A big thanks to Greg and the rest of the posters :hail: . I have just opened an etrade account and started investing in Aussie shares. I have been meaning to for years but had been put off by the "complexity" of it all and have only invested in realestate.
Reading this thread has made investing so much simpler to understand, following the simple rules diversify, dividends and growth - I feel I am now moving forward towards my retirement plan. Once I get the hang of investing and feel more comfortable I'll look at opening an international account. Thanks again guys - best thread on the net.. :thumbsup: