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Dave (Flash for those that don't know),
BRILLIANT!:cheers: If someone IS NOT taking advantage of the greatest "gift" in the last 100 years, i.e., LOW relative cost and historically low interest rates.... I feel sorry for them. |
Well, then add me to that list. I'm simply not in a position to buy a house right now. That's a big part of the reason I'm trying to get out of the oil industry and back to GA with a more steady hours wise job. I simply can't make any long term plans beyond saving and money management. I'm tired of renting.
I sure do wish I hadn't looked at my stocks today, lol. Should have waited to get into the stock game til today. Would have been some good sale prices. |
Even though I am invested for the very long term 30+ years, I'm starting to think that going to cash through the end of the year might be worth the sell trade commissions.
Edit: I won't do it, but I have to say it's crossed my mind. |
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It NEVER works that way. The longer you wait - you just miss out. And when the market takes a dump -- then you wouldn't buy because you'd be afraid to pull the trigger.... then the market goes UP 500 points and then you jump in so you'd have missed the "sale". Trust me.... you're thinking way too short term. Buy - get the dividends - they keep coming regardless of the price you paid... and 3+ years from now - you'll look back and wish you'd have bought more when you did. :cheers: |
Oh no, I'm not trying to time anything or looking short term. It's just one of those days when you go damn! when you look at the value of your assets. That's all. I'm sure it will come back up and I do like the dividends :D
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I feel your pain -- just multiply it by "X" amount (pick a large number) 'cause nobody is immune to this rout! Ask me how the 2000 shares of Apple worked out.... No... don't.... I don't want to start weeping in my keyboard. :lol: |
Here's one more reason I shy away from the "hot" IPO's (Initial Public Offerings).... because usually THEY SUCK! :lol:
It's GAMBLING not investing.... when you buy an unknown earnings stream (or in most of these cases NO earnings!). Cut and pasted this little "gem".... Groupon was already the worst-performing major stock in America in 2012 and the third-quarter debacle will only add to the stock carnage. In after-hours trading immediately following the earnings release, the stock fell by 15.8% to $3.30. Groupon’s IPO priced one year ago at $20. Groupon was arguably already the worst of this era’s three big tech IPO’s, which included Zynga and Facebook. |
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http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/11...n=social+media |
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Well -- you never really know... but my guess is based on age old money management. i.e., People tend to sell the stocks with the biggest GAINS first. So given Apples (AAPL) outsized gains... if a guy wants to lock in his 15% Long Term Capital Gains tax... he'd want to sell some of this stock. As more and more people do that - it starts a cascading of selling... because as the stock drops - more people rush to lock in these huge gains. While there is always a "basic" or fundamental reason to own a stock (or buy a stock)... human nature is hard to factor out. When shares are going nuts on the upside - everyone piles in - and drives the prices even higher which attracts even more buying. It works the same way on the way down. If you want a prime example of this - just look at the housing bubble. EVERYONE wanted to buy a house - or buy a house and flip it... on the way UP.... when the prices stopped going up and started to tip over the edge - the rush to sell exacerbated the decline in prices. Then you had a period when NOBODY wanted to buy a house - at any price. Even though my brain would tell me that is when you want to buy. Buy low... is how you make money not buying at the top. That is what I think we're seeing in the market right now. There's a ton of gain in the market in general over the last couple of years. We're coming into year end. There is uncertainty over the tax treatment and possible negative changes... so why not lock in what you have and wait to see what happens. For long term INVESTORS that doesn't work out well.... you'll sell at the wrong time and buy at the wrong time. It's better to just add to what you have at lower prices when you get the opportunity. Go back and check out the long term charts and see (be re-enforced) that these "blips" happen in the market. So for IRAs/ROTHs etc -- steady is the course. For me - or people like me - that actually live off their investments... we have to do things a little differently. I try to get liquid if I think a buying opportunity is in the works. Lock in some gains and then sit and wait. Remember - as prices drop - the yield RISES.... Living off that yield, I like 5% over 3.5% so I'm always HOPING stocks have a melt down and I can buy and raise my yield/return. My guess is Apple, in particular, comes out with earnings and sales numbers that just crush everyone else - and it will be off to the races again. But in the meantime people will lock in those gains. But I've been wrong before so this is just another "investing 102" discussion of what may (or may not) be what we're seeing. |
Yes Apple is killing me...I want to pul out, but am patiently waiting for it to come back. We will see if that is the right decision.
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is it a buyers market ....... or is it going down some more :_paranoid - thinking about AAPL?,COKE,HD,MA,PM,T,COST,CVX,MCD,MRK,WFM,MA,SBUX ,DIS .......... this is the best thread on the board :thumbsup:
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I increased my MCD today.. with a 3.7ish yield and current rate, and a 10% sale on when i bought last time. I thought it was a good "deal". ;)
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No one has an answer to that.... your guess is as good as the next guys. Here's my answer to that question. SCALE IN. If you want to eventually hold 100 shares -- buy in 25 share increments.... up or down you'll end up somewhere "close". If you buy tomorrow the market WILL go down. If you don't buy tomorrow it WILL go up. Trust me on this. You just can't game it like that. :cheers: |
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AND THIS MY FRIENDS IS THE WAY TO THINK AND ACT. This kind of thinking will get you were you want to be. Do NOT be afraid to buy more of good stocks/companies just because they're lower than were you originally made a purchase. If it was a tool in the Snap-On truck -- you'd be ELATED to buy it on sale! :cheers: |
An event happened today with one of my holdings. Linking to page http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/996371
Actual company aside, can some explain the benefits to this action vs buying the amount of shares for the net out of pocket? Sort of understand the article but fail to see the advantage in the action vs simply buying a chunk of shares today. Action in question Buy 24,413 January 2013 $3 call options for $13 each Sell 24,863 January 2013 $2.50 put options for $11 each |
It's called a "collar" --- where the person buys one position and sells another... Options trading isn't something for Investing 102 because it's really complex. There are many ways to trade "OPTIONS". Maybe that's why my boat was called "Options"?? I wanted to call the dingy "Puts and Calls" - in other words taking one to shore or picking them up? LOL
http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/a...oattrip002.jpg So with Options trades -- you can do one of two BASIC things (there's many ways to trade options): Investopedia explains 'Put' When an investor purchases a put, he or she expects the underlying asset will decline in price. The investor will then profit by either selling the put options at a profit, or by exercising the option. If an investor writes a put contract, he or she is estimating the stock will not decline below the exercise price, and will not fall significantly below the exercise price. Consider if an investor purchased one put option contract for 100 shares of ABC Co. for $1, or $100 ($1*100). The exercise price of the shares is $10 and the current ABC share price is $12. This contract has given the investor the right, but not the obligation, to sell shares of ABC at $10. If ABC shares drop to $8, the investor's put option is in-the-money and he can close his option position by selling the contract on the open market. On the other hand, he can purchase 100 shares of ABC at the existing market price of $8, then exercise his contract to sell the shares for $10. Excluding commissions, the total profit for this position would be $100 [100*($10 - $8 - $1)]. If the investor already owned 100 shares of ABC, this is called a "married put" position and serves as a hedge against a decline in share price. Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/...#ixzz2Bm20BkPM Definition of 'Call' 1. The period of time between the opening and closing of some future markets wherein the prices are established through an auction process. 2. An option contract giving the owner the right (but not the obligation) to buy a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price within a specified time. Investopedia explains 'Call' 1. In some exchanges, the call period is an important time in which to match and execute a large number of orders before opening and closing. 2. A call becomes more valuable as the price of the underlying asset (stock) appreciates. Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...#ixzz2Bm2JfpdG |
In honesty -- the boat was named "Options" because of the Microsoft options that paid for it! And we said that owning her gave us "Options"...
But you wouldn't believe how many people thought I was an Option trader! :lol: |
What a Beautiful Trawler...
Reminds me of my Younger days..My Dad had a 40' Farallon Eagle Trawler, and then a 34' CHB. Among other Boats. Boy was it a lot of work but the memories are forever..RIP Dad.. |
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Mine was a 1991 47' Grand Banks Wide body "Motoryacht"... that is their description. They made a Europa - a Classic - and the Motoryacht... All fiberglass.... and I had the optional Aluminum windows (otherwise they're wood framed) and the bigger twin 300 hp Cummins turbo diesels.. she'd cruise at 14.5 knots and top out at 17. Weighed 25 tons! Burned 11 gallons per hour... She carried 600 gallons of fuel - and I had a 500 gallon per day water maker - so we could stay out "forever". |
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We ran a single screw Cat3160 in the 40', and a Ford lehman in the 34'..You get really good handling a single screw in tight places... He taught me the finer things of life and how to work hard for them..He was a spender and not an Investor/Saver...And in the end it cost him.. That is why I turned out like I did...I did not want to have a bunch of"stuff" and no liquid assets...I told the wife a few months ago that spending is on hold until sometime in 2013 at the least...I need to keep liquid, nimble and ready..I can always spend more later... But boy you stirred up some memories...We had everything from Steel hulled Chris Craft/PT Boats with dual 327's, to 34' Sport fisherman with dual 454's, But the Trawler was the go anywhere, anytime Yacht, that has a certain look that is priceless.. |
My kids and my nieces grew up on the boat... Desolation Sound... Puget Sound... we used to spend the entire month of August on the boat. We had the dingy - two kayaks - and an 18' Grady White that I dragged... we looked like a friggin' bunch of sea gypsies when we'd anchor up! Kids would go ashore and hike and play on the beach... or we'd go skanking around in the little boats... crabbing and shrimping... swimming and water skiing... Your only worry was what we were going to have for our next meal. Great times! I miss it terribly but I don't think it would be the same without the kids.
Entering Desolation Sound (Canada EH!) The water there is "brackish" and because it's snow melt - it heats up as it flows down the rocky mountain sides and the general top four or five feet of water is 70ish degrees and "fresh" -- it sits on top of the MUCH colder salt water... makes it fun when you jump off the boat and break thru that nice warm water and into the colder stuff!! http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/a...uly2002047.jpg |
That sounds great...I know I will take the memories to my Grave..My Dad's passion was Boating...
Sounds like good time's Greg.. Something that will stay with you forever.. Thanks for reminding me of the good times...I have been a little peeved the last few days....You know why... You have a great night...I am off to snuggle with the wife and enjoy some down time.. I may never leave the bay area because of all the memories..Angel Island, Sausalito, Farallon Islands...My Childhood was on the water before I went off and did other things.I wish i would have spent more time with my Dad after growing up....TTYL:cheers: |
I stumbled on a story in the Seattle Times by the Financial writer... about his Father and the lessons that Dad had taught him... I thought "hmmmmm.... sounds similar to what I've been trying to "teach". I just cut and pasted the basis for the story without the underlying story.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ • A “perfect fit” is better than an “optimal portfolio.” My dad liked to know and understand what he invested in; when he looked through the holdings of a mutual fund and saw a host of names he didn’t recognize, it made him nervous. As a result, no small-cap fund ever passed his sniff test. Every time he talked to the portfolio advisers he worked with at Fidelity and Vanguard, they told him exactly what I had said, namely that he had “a hole in the small-cap space.” They found other “suboptimal problems” too. My father understood diversification, but he also understood comfort. Missing out on small-caps might have dampened the returns of his portfolio compared to the perfect asset allocation, but it never threatened his ability to reach his financial goals. Meanwhile, he slept well every night knowing what was in his portfolio. If you have the choice between an optimal portfolio or an optimal night’s sleep, enjoy the nap. • “Don’t mess it up” is a good investment mantra. Because my father was so risk-averse for so long, he lucked out when the 1990s came and helped him catch up for the years when he was more focused on his day job than his retirement savings. That said, once the oversized returns of the Internet bubble got him to the point where he was “set for life,” he was more concerned with protecting his nest egg than growing it. The security it gave him was priceless. Having secured his don’t-mess-it-up-money against real loss, Dad felt free to take more risks with the rest, or just to spend it. Mostly he saved and invested the money, but he never worried about his strategy — or a market event like the financial crisis of 2008 — turning his life’s work into daily worries about running out of cash. • All that matters is where you are, and what happens next. My father had a remarkable ability to remember his financial mistakes — so that he did not repeat them — but to never linger on them or to let them change his next move. Over the years, he bought a few stocks that were duds, and had some others that he gave up on too soon, before they rebounded or went through a big buyout that could have lifted his returns significantly. He never let the rare mistake bother him, which is why he typically moved quickly to the next success. “I can’t have that one back,” he told me recently, after I told him that a bank he had held for years — but that he gave up on in 2011 — finally had found the long-awaited buyer and the price pop he always envisioned. “There’s no sense thinking of what might have been. I’ve got what I’ve got, and I’d rather focus on that.” • Seek counsel, but make your own judgments. My dad was big on “trust, but verify,” so whether he was getting financial advice from the pros or from his son — whether it was a new counselor or someone he had dealt with and followed for years — he took in suggestions, examined the research and came to his own conclusions. Taking that responsibility meant he had no one to blame but himself if things went wrong; given his natural cautious tendencies, it was a solid safeguard. “I’m the one who has to live with the results,” he said, “so I’m the one who should make the decisions, even if all I am doing is confirming that [someone else’s] idea is the right move for me.” • There is no one “right way.” Slow-and-steady won the race for my father, but that didn’t mean someone couldn’t go hard-and-fast or big-and-bold and get to the same place. They’re just different approaches to the same problem, but too many people jump from one strategy to the next and those changes leave them forever playing catch-up. My father taught me that financial success is less about finding the proverbial “best strategy” than about coming up with “the best strategy for me.” • The easiest way to make sure you get more out at the end is to put more in at the beginning. Since he couldn’t control the markets and wanted to mitigate risks, Dad worked hard at what he could control, saving more so that he could afford to manage the money conservatively, in keeping with his personality. He felt that savings was an accomplishment unto itself; watching it grow to where it could care for his loved ones was an achievement. In that way, he was an accomplished man who achieved his financial goals. You could learn some things from a guy like that; I sure did. |
Good post. That's the strategy I'm going to follow.
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Great Post Greg...:thumbsup:
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So during this "choppy" market - which I fully expect to to be - and have said so on several occasions. I'm not "smarter" than you guys... I don't have a crystal ball... but I do have common sense. If you listen to the news (financial news programs) surely you can judge by the truly smart peoples statements that we "need" to fix the fiscal cliff before markets can continue their climb. It's the old - markets don't like uncertainty...
BUT here's what I want you to do. If you have Schwab - or Google Finance website... Pull up a chart of Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP). I will remind you - that I'm not pushing KMP - I do have a holding in it which is why I look at it - but it's a great example of what I want you to look at... Look at this chart in YTD (Year to date)....not a great chart - in fact it's down YTD. Now look at it 1 YEAR chart... it's lumpy and bumpy but in the end it's UP 7% over that period -- NOTE THE DIPS -- Now look at a 3 year chart... Wouldn't you have loved to bought in the dips? OH and by the way - Wouldn't you have loved getting $4 per year per share in dividend ($12 over the 3 year period)? Now look at the 5 year chart... Remembering that even if you'd have bought at the very peaks you can find - that you'd have also received $20 in dividends during this period. Now ask me "when should I buy?" And what's my answer? Buy when you can IF you're truly a long term investor... because I can't see when the next dip is going to be - and even if the stock dips - would you have missed out on the dividends it's paying? They'll pay 1.26 on Wednesday... and in 3 months they'll pay that again.... etc. This is what you really need to look at. LONGER TERM... the fiscal cliff will be something we talked about. (I hope). |
A few questions
If everone is thinking that dividends will be taxed at a higher rate, say 25% instead of 15%. Would you change your strategy? I know you are living off the dividend stream, but would you change the dividend to purchase additional shares instead of taking the cash payment?
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Payton - I think you'll get a lot of people who say yes they would back out of dividend plays and others who would not. Simply - the change in tax rate creates an unknown. And it's a lot bigger than the tax rate itself. What does it do to stock prices? Would they drop, creating capital decay at least on the short term and therefore a lot of nervous investors? Keep in mind there is a large portion of these dividend stocks owned in tax-deferred accounts. And, that many people have them simply reinvested. While there is power in numbers, the people living off the income stream are the big dogs - and they can have a significant impact on the situation (and in some cases may influence the companies themselves). From the investing standpoint, I'd much rather pay 1-2% more in income tax the see these big changes on capital gains / dividends. That's just me thinking that long term - I want this income stream to be available and significant enough to make a difference when I'm retired. 25 years from now (if I'm lucky), the 1-2% I pay now in extra income tax would have been long forgotten about. Just my humble, semi-ignorant opinion.
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So as NLY gets pummeled again, I read this article. And although it's quite speculative, it got me thinking that now might not be a good time to move money out....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002...nings-releases I also looked at the NLY chart going back to October 1997 and shrugged my shoulders... seems it's been like this before and recovered a number of times... in fact many years saw 20% swings it seems (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 (yikes), 2008, .... and now 2012?). I'm going to be keeping a close eye and sitting tight for the time being. I have lots of time..... |
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But I'm curious to see what their future holds (or what people expect). |
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I'm thinking you all need to go back and re-read Investing 102 again.... you're starting to think and act like traders. Not Traitors - traders... :lol:
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) is now paying almost 14% dividend... and what happens on your old price that you paid too much for? Your dividends BUY MORE shares at LOWER prices... so not only are you buying a higher dividend payer -- you're bringing down your first cost as you go along... and that dividend (at 14%) is HUGE compared to other investments. NOW --- I WARNED all along that NLY and JNK and HYG etc - or shares of their ilk -- ARE NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART! I said this repeatedly. These shares are to be bought for one reason only --- to boost your overall dividend percentage. So you own a Coke (KO) that pays 3+% -- IF you want to boost your dividend percentages -- you can stir the pot with the likes of the NLY's - the JNK's - the HYG's... If you look at their charts -- they're RANGEY --- they move up and down -- not much in $$ terms but the percentage move is up or down 10% or said another way -- up 10 and down 10 is a 20% move! But ---- the big BUTT ---- even down 20% --- it's paying you 12/13/14% ANNUALLY.... I'm not defending this stock - nor any other... we're not about trying to pick the perfect shares... We're using EXAMPLES ---- and we're LEARNING about how to think about stocks - about how to use them - about dividends - etc ---- all things that many folks didn't know anything about a few months ago. So I'm saying to REMEMBER why you bought something in the first place... 'Cause the market will move up and down many many times in your lifetimes. You'll have to go back at times and really question why you bought what you did. :cheers: |
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Either way - you're paying the same tax. Whether you dividend is "re-invested" or is taken in cash (as I do)... the tax treatment is the same. My "market sense" take on the changes in taxes is another story altogether! The percentage of taxes paid on dividends or capital gains etc is really paltry compared to the returns they can make you over a multi year period of time. Stocks -- compete for your money -- along side many other investment choices. So as an investor -- your choice could be Bonds - Real estate - Stocks - CD's etc. Money is going to go where people THINK they can make an adequate return factoring in taxes. Just as they do now. My tax free muni bond portfolio makes about 4% tax free... so if you compute what you need to "make" after tax on a dividend stock -- then you just do the math and see what that takes. Obviously at 15% it's one percentage and at 25% it's higher! But then you also have to factor in the TOTAL RETURN.... so bonds that have no growth (held to maturity) ONLY pay their 4%.... A stock that I buy might pay 6% dividend -- but I have to factor the growth of capital into the equation too. So the real answer is.... nobody knows what the idiots are going to do with the tax rates and THAT is a larger problem right now than if we actually knew. Because right now - we can't really plan - we don't want to invest and get caught making the wrong move etc... and that tends to tear up the "market". I think that's where we are going to be until we have a definitive answer. |
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i let the talking heads get to me on something i didn't understand. but at least i didn't let it get me at a point i was out money. heh. I instead bought something i felt more comfortable with while it was on sale; MCD. |
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Nothing wrong with that Albert! Nothing at all. My take on the NLY's of the world.... They're better left for people like me that do this stuff on a daily basis. I don't know more than you - but I'm on top of it more - as in - 20 hours a day.... Having said that.... when I see stuff like this going down - I have to look for the reasons WHY... and then I try to look out a little longer and see what material affect I think that might have. Right now -- the market is in a spooky place.... The tax issue - europe - the economy. So what I am TRYING to do is to say -- where are we going to be 4 years from now? Will we solve the tax issue - yeah probably.... will europe still be a mess? Sadly I think it probably will be - too many democrats and socialists to fix it..... our economy? I think we're swinging back to looking at more investment here in America - less in China - more American jobs... not building toasters but energy - auto - roads - bridges. I think we'll put some of the dough that we're spending on Iraq and Afghanistan into our own infrastructure maybe. At least I hope that's where we're headed. I see interest rates holding steady (because the government that controls them - doesn't want to pay more for the USA to borrow!). What I WON'T do -- is to take any long term illiquid positions.... i.e., unless I can STEAL an apartment building - I'm not buying.... I'm not renewing any bond buying. I'll stay sharp - stay loose - and keep my head on a swivel. I won't be afraid to invest - I'll just make sure that those investments can be liquidated in a flash if we get some big ass unforeseen melt down somewhere. |
Can you guys tell I love this stuff?? :lol:
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Thanks for all the insight...It helps my self taught Brain to process and analyze info... My Wife doesn't want to know, it scares her...I am the one keeping her from buying certain non liquid assets right now...We bought Real estate in 2009, and I told her we are staying liquid right now until we know more about the uncertainty. |
I hear ya Mike!
We just bought this condo in Sun Valley --- and against my better judgement and the way I "normally" do things -- we'll take a mortgage on it. The cost of money is too cheap not to. I'm using Schwab "influence" via their loan offering and getting a pretty sweet rate. Just a little "funny". I like funnies.... This guy calls and asks me "how much do you want to finance"? I said -- I don't know - what are my options? He says how much do you want to put down? I said - I don't know... I'll put down whatever I have to until I'm happy with the rate etc I guess... This raised another question. What happens if it doesn't appraise for the sales price? I said - well - then I guess I'll just have to throw more money at it until the numbers work. What I ended up with is a "conventional" mortgage - I think they call it - No --- wait --- it's called "conforming". We settled on that amount and whatever money I need to bring to close the party is what I'll bring. My take on the whole process.... super easy.... WHY? Because I have lots of cash! If I didn't - we'd have had to have a whole different discussion - and I'd be sitting on pins and needles wondering what the end result would be. Now -- I'm just telling him "you put in this much - and I'll just bring all the rest!" :rofl: By the way -- Gwen's credit score is way higher than mine! We've been married for 33 years this month! Go figure that one out! I pay all the bills. Why should hers be higher than mine by like 50 points!?!? Both are quite high -- but I did get a good laugh out of that. Like her credit quality is any DIFFERENT than mine! Geez --- we're hooked at the hip! |
Haha..
My Wife's score is higher than mine too..I pay all the bills, and love to pay them early..She likes to leave them for the last minute.. But yet, she has the higher FICO, go figure.. I don't have a lot of wealth, another funny is that back in December 2008, we were looking at the Home we have now, it was an REO that sold in 2006 for 660,000 Dollars...I was buying it for 275,000 plus getting a 9000 Tax credit.:woot: When I went to get a loan, they asked how much do you have to put down ? I said all of it...:woot: But I want to finance 50% at these rates...You should have seen their face.:wow: If the rates were high like in the 1990's , I would have paid cash, but now ? No way...at 4%, I can invest the rest and pay the payment with Investment profit. |
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