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I thought this was a good read today...
what do to about the doom and gloom of the impending "correction"... basically? not a whole lot for us long term dividend investors. :) LINK |
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Greg, what is your opinion on this article saying TNH is entering oversold territory.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividend...old-territory/ I have been looking to buy more of this stock and see this as an opportunity for a "sale price" but this article makes me weary as this sort of thing happened with BPT and that one dropped quite quickly after that. |
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anyone catch the Tommy Boy reference on that seeking alpha link? :lol:
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Sent you a PM --- I'm not sure I'd add to a current position.... unless you really need to average down. We're headed into summer -- and everyone knows summer is the time to buy -- but not sell stocks. With the run up we've had this year - this summer could take a pretty good dip and then it would be really "on sale". If not - no biggie. With the economy seeming to be on the mend -- you need to be very careful with chasing "yield".... as interest rates rise -- stock prices will take a dip... Of course when, how much.... blah blah blah... We're in one of those periods where we're not sure what is coming -- better economy which will help stocks -- but if the economy is too good - we get a rising rate environment.... |
A few pages back I was crowing about Bitcoin at $70 each. Many friends of mine screamed "bubble!!!" at that price and ran away... not me. :) Right now the price is $190.00 / bitcoin. :confused59:
The question remains, is it an exploding market searching for its true value? Or is it a gigantic bubble? Personally, I still think this is a good price. Markets are emerging, companies are creating ATMs for Bitcoin and we will see its use streamlined and mainstreamed. I think the opening door to get in is closing fast though. But I could be wrong, millions of users could decide to sell at once or have security breach at an exchange to drop the value. If that happens, I'm buying! |
This morning I was reminded of something that is somewhat important... especially in this thread.
AT&T (T) will trade today "EX" dividend -- meaning - that if you owned the stock PRIOR to today - you'll get this quarters dividend payment. That isn't very important actually except that you might see T trade down the equivalent .45 cents per share - on what otherwise might me an up day for the market. This is perfectly normal - do not adjust your television set... LOL What I picked up on though -- which I know and understand -- is that as the stock price has RISEN -- that wonderful dividend % payout has decreased on a percentage basis. I pulled up my spreadsheet to see that T is paying me 6.22% on my cost basis... but if you bought Friday -- you'd only (only?) be getting 4.75% -------- this is the same .45 per share but your cost basis would be higher. WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT YOU ASK.... <like the old Romper Room -- I can hear you through my computer> Well it's important IF --- big IF --- and WHEN --- big WHEN --- interest rates start to rise. As an investor -- and we're really talking big sum investors here -- but they're the ones that move the markets.... you're always doing the math on where you can earn money NET NET. So when and if treasuries etc start to rise --- and a guy could earn 4% tax free vs T's 4.75% taxable well... share prices will FALL because money will move out of T and into the other comparable investment. WHAT I'M SAYING here is not that this is going to happen this week - or this year or even this decade..... what I'm saying here is to learn and pay attention to these market relationships! EVERYTHING is based on interest rates... WE have zero control of this but we can, do, and should, pay attention to them! While we want our share price growth AND we want our dividend.... the share price only grows when someone is willing to pay more per share than we did/were. But the dividend percentage falls as the price grows.... at some point this math catches up to OTHER interest bearing investments... and the price will have to be adjusted to make it all "work". What I look at is % return on my money. I live off my investments and their cash flow. I try to be somewhat tax adverse... so I trade VERY little.... I call up the old spreadsheet and think 6.22% (with 20% tax rate) is pretty decent and the company is solid as hell -- and well run. So I'm a happy camper. Interest rates - in the environment the world is in right now - move pretty slowly. Don't fight the FED is an old saying that usually holds true... so as long as the FED is working hard to keep interest rates LOW.... the stock market is pretty good! But if the FED starts to allow those rates to rise... then just beware - and learn from - what happens to housing - the stock market - auto sales etc. PLEASE do not read anything into this post other than exactly what I'm saying -- it's just a reminder for Investing 102 -- so that you don't forget about all the little things that affect the stock market. EARNINGS are the most important -- if they're good or growing -- we're golden.... and INTEREST RATES being low are good! There will be a point going forward that earnings are good and interest rates are low because the economy is good... once it gets TOO GOOD... then rates will creep up. We have no clue when that's going to be. We don't have to take any action... just understand the relationship. |
Thank you :thumbsup:
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http://rt.com/news/bitcoin-currency-cyber-attack-394/ |
All people really need to understand about stuff like this is that it's the difference between INVESTING -- and GAMBLING.... Some people gamble and hit HUGE winnings... others just drip their money away every week buying "stuff" hoping they're going to be winners.
I'd prefer to actually invest.... and I'm the kind of guy that could actually afford to gamble. I just can't be bothered. I don't even buy lottery tickets or Mega power whatever they ares... Bitcoins fit this category... it's just gambling. You're just gambling that someone is going to pay more than you paid... because you're not buying anything more than that. You're just buying something and hoping like hell that someone else will pay more than you did... thus making you have a "gain". As long as someone else is around - great... things go fine. But what you're really buying is nothing more than a fart in a windstorm. My wife and and argue all the time about spending money... we don't actually argue about spending money -- we just see value in different kinds of spending money. She would spend - and does in fact spend - huge sums traveling... and on clothing... To which my way of thinking is that you might as well walk outside and toss the money in the street... I prefer to buy STUFF... real stuff... that if I want to I can sell at some point and get "some" of my money back. We discuss it this way.... Even if I ONLY get 50% of my cost back -- I have something -- where as there is ZERO return EVER on a trip... other than the memory. I get the memory part out of owning my stuff AND I get something back... We just agree to see things differently... she goes places... I buy stuff.... I feel this way about INVESTING in stocks... sometimes I sell for lower than I paid.... I accept this fact. I can not pick 10 stocks and have all 10 go up and stay there. But I try my best to understand enough about what I'm buying to try to minimize my losses. I can not understand ANYTHING about Bitcoin except that it appears to be a frenzy and that there's enough people out there that are willing to play. It reminds me of the Dot Bomb era... or the house flipping era... Some people made millions... most of the people lost their shirts. I like walking around with my shirt on. :D |
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And instawallet isn't very secure, so I wouldnt use it in the first place, but your wallet is backed up on your computer or usb flash drive (or so it should be) so if where you park your wallet gets breached, then it is still safe, as far as I know. I use blockchain.info. That's said to be one of the best, encryption there is said to be excellent, you can control the amount of security on your wallet too. It has some nice features. |
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By the way thanks for keeping us up to date on the interest rate issues. I watch the 10-year note rate every day. As we moved above 2.0% I was beginning to think we were at the point where rates were going higher. They sure retreated quickly though in the last week. |
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I'm not naive though, bitcoin is in direct competition with the dollar. I know how central banking works, and I can bet you that they are buying in as well. They can do that since they print up the electronic dollars willy nilly. They will sell all at once, the price will crash and they will try to set off a panic. That's all they can do against bitcoin. I agree with you on spending. But do you think your "dollars" in the bank are really there? Ask the people of Cyprus what happened to their Euros. And stocks are just paper that can become 'farts in the wind' as well. Some things have more risk than others. Bitcoin has a ton of it, there's no denying that. But understand that there are a LOT of people who despise having their dollars slowly devalued through inflation, robed of the purchasing power and savings, having their Euro's stolen and so on. So Bitcoin is a direct free market response to that. I think you should always invest in what you are knowledgeable about and what you believe in. Succeed or fail, I think a free market should be in control of their currency and completely own it free of any other intervention. That's why I'm supporting it. Heck yeah it's high risk, and there's a good chance it's a bubble and will pop for now... but I'll risk what I can loose. :) Whatever happens remains to be seen, but it sure is fun watching so far. :popcorn2: Should I have diverse investments based on advice given here? Absolutely. I not knocking any other investments, just bringing this one up for discussion. |
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Ya know -- the people around me that thought flipping houses was fun too.... right up until they lost their ass and moved into an apartment. Then their refrain is --- "I should have seen it coming". Personally - I don't care what anyone invests in -- or does with their money... but this is INVESTING 102 and people need to understand there is investing and there is gambling. I think Bitcoin is gambling. Since your currency really can't be used to buy very much... you can't take them or transfer them to a real bank account and go buy a car... or food... (you'll no doubt argue that you can, in fact, buy these things -- but I'll argue that even if you could - it would be difficult at best)... so the real intrigue with this "currency" is trading it and watching (hopefully) it go up. Whether it's a bubble or not won't be known - so I wouldn't speculate on whether it is or not. What I'm saying is that things that have no intrinsic value other than someone pays more for it - tend to have very bad outcomes. It may be that Bitcoin becomes so wildly owned that everyone will take them as payment for anything --- in other words -- just like a US dollar.... It really doesn't matter to me whether the dollar is in fact nothing more than a printed piece of paper... what matters is that if I have enough of them I can buy goods and services and that ANYONE will take my money. That's all that really needs to happen. End of story. Perhaps Bitcoin makes it to that point. My Grandfather - who lived in Carson City, Nevada for 50 years - used to point out that "most people" are, at some point, perhaps 10% ahead at some point in their gambling while in a casino... and that most people would be happy with a 10% return on their money ANNUALLY... yet these people are up 10% in an hour or two, or day or two.... yet most gamble until they've spent whatever it was they brought to gamble with. He also pointed out that they didn't build those big casinos with the money they earned from the winners.... but I'm sure the losers had a great time. They're still losers. |
See -- Tony -- I don't know that you actually get what I'm trying to say about Bitcoin.
Here it is in a nutshell... Bitcoin (whomever or whatever that is) didn't come out a month ago and make an announcement that their currency is now accepted at Bank of America... or at Wal Mart... Nor did they come out and say they've just backed the currency by purchasing half a gazilion dollars of Titanium (or gold or silver)... YET! The price has quadrupled. For no apparent reason than what? Because there are more and more people such as yourself buying into it? Or was there some government that said Hey! We're dropping out of the Eurozone and we're now using Bitcoin as our domestic currency. None of that happened. The only "news" is that the meteoric price of a new digital currency had gone bananas.... drawing in more people to play... thus pushing the price up. That's it. Nothing more. A guy buys 1,000 dollars worth --- next thing you know it's "worth" 3,000 dollars so he buy another 2,000 worth... and that doubles -- so now he's got 10,000 dollars worth.... and he's telling everyone he knows about all the money he's made. You know when I quit day trading Intel - Microsoft and Dell? When I'd go to the grocery store and the clerks were telling me how much they made day trading "dot whatever". You know why I didn't flip houses with a couple buddies of mine? Because my SON was convinced that he could do it and make zillions in just a matter of weeks. You know why I just spent a tidy sum rebuilding my Sister and brother in laws Camaro? Because they bet the farm - including money they didn't have by signing as guarantors on notes for my nephew to buy and flip houses. The first couple times went pretty good.... and now they rent a house. |
Anyone remember Itex? My parents exchanged on it for a while, then the bottom fell out on that. They were saving their Itex dollars to buy a swimming pool for us kids. 6 months go by and they call the pool company to place the order, and the pool company quoted them 3x the price in Itex as before. I don't remember the exact devaluation; I just remember being sad I didn't get a swimming pool. Another summer on crabgrass running through the sprinklers, thinking "I'm getting too old for sprinklers."
:( For the kids Tony, be safe and limit your potential downside! |
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Here Steven --- You can come up and paddle around in mine.... :action-smiley-027: http://i919.photobucket.com/albums/a...s/DSC_7858.jpg |
Hate ya for that pool!!!
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Now, having said that, I'm not here to entirely toot its horn. I read this great article and I agree with it. Asian markets are buying into it now, not with the intentions of supporting a new currency, but with to flip based on speculation. I would say 90% chance we are seeing central banks/asian markets run this price up. For that reason I'm cautious. So far is has proven to be legitimate tool for peer to peer trade, its just super volatile right now. Time will reveal its value. Right now it's $207. Mathematically one Bitcoin could be worth $1 million. Will governments shut it down somehow? (although that's virtually impossible, they have to turn off the internet) What makes it interesting is that this is all based on human psychology as nothing else whatsoever is manipulating the price. So, how long is a rope? http://www.naturalnews.com/039830_bi...ble_crash.html |
A decent article this morning on Seeking Alpha --
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1330...g_income&ifp=0 which brings up a couple things for me... #1 -- I read stuff like this just to learn something/anything.... WE don't operate in a vacuum.. and I'm constantly trying to learn and listen to someone else's perspective on the world. #2 -- Usually the writer has an agenda.... which I try to ignore - opting instead to search for the little nugget I might glean from the "larger picture" in the piece. This article attracted me because it's discussing TOTAL RETURN --- a couple words you've heard here more than once. :rolleyes: :hello: Early and throughout this thread we've discussed the trade offs of high dividend vs share price - and that we should try to blend (diversify) using some higher yields but to be more mindful of that longer term Total Return. That's how you grow rich. In real estate -- you might trade off a monthly negative cash flow -- for the longer term price appreciation of the property - coupled with the current tax benefits (write offs etc) that you get. In stocks -- we want to get paid while we wait -- using the dividend to constantly and automatically "average in" -- but also getting the price appreciation. For me --- most people lack another important factor in the selection process... which is -- feeling confident in owning the stock through good markets and bad. Most people SELL in a down market -- and thus loose money -- because they lack the confidence to hold --- or better yet -- to buy more! So to me that's a really really critical component to ownership! +++++++++ Which brings me to this post and it's beginning ----- I went through the list this writer uses -- and to me -- the problem with it is --- I don't recognize most of the names! And while it might prove to be (in hindsight) a really good list of stock performance based on his criteria.... I'd dare to say that in a down market -- any of us would have the confidence to hold these let alone add to our positions. To me this is the big mistake "newbs" make. They just can't hold when they should. ++++++++++ So the article is good because it discusses "total return".... I just discount the details of the actual picks. I know this was a long winded way to say that - but it's just how my mind works. I just write what I'm thinking. Thank god I type as fast as I think! :RunninDog: |
where's the link!? lol
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PICKY PICKY PICKY!!! http://seekingalpha.com/article/1330...g_income&ifp=0 |
HAHA...
That was a good read. If anything, it also gave me some suggestions on what to help use to "screen" for possible purchases in the future. I "clipped" it to Evernote for future reference. :) |
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I entered the Market and posted here on that date and time. On page 129. Taking what Greg has preached on this thread. INVESTING and not gambling. I have made a gain of 15.5% in one year. I'd like to thank Greg and Everyone that has filled this thread with great valuable information. By the time I'm 70 years I can retire and travel around with Greg in our Hot Rods, I'll be pushing him around in his wheel chair when that happens though. |
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Thanks again, Don |
Did I just read that Bitcoin went from 266 to 150 in one day ???
I don't follow or own it, but man that is a crash for sure.. |
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No --- It was actually WORSE than that... it hit a high of $266 -- crashed to $105 before bouncing back to $145. Now - let's put it into perspective..... the 30 day range on Bitcoin is a low of $36.65 ---- with todays high of $266.00 It's currently trading at $170ish |
Don and Bob....
Don't thank ME --- thank yourselves for being interested enough to read and take action. As Don said.... you could have thrown darts at a Wall Street Journal and made a gain in this market.... BUT that is the way the market works! You have to learn to take easy with the hard. BUT if you're not in at all -- you don't get doodle. Up 15% for a couple years in a row -- then you might go sideways for awhile - then you might go down for awhile - and then bang you're up 20% again.... ALL THE WHILE GETTING PAID. Work is like that -- super busy - then fearing a layoff.... if you stick to it work hard - next thing you know - all is okay again. But even when you're fearing getting laid off -- you're getting paid. If you hate your job you might be inclined to look for other opportunities. The stock market is like that! I do my best research and shopping etc when the market SUCKS! It forces me to get my act together and really be wise in my choices - really think about what I'm buying... So sometimes it's actually kind of a good thing. Right now it's all fun and games. I can go play in the shop - come back and see I've made "X" while goofing off. It won't always be like that.... But let's say the market sells off 10% (a real correction) --- do I care.... sure... but then the dividend comes in - and one company is paying me 6% -- and another is paying 5% -- and another is paying me something else.... And if I've been in the market long enough -- I might have a 15% gain -- so the sell off only reduced my "gain" temporarily. And now the dividends are buying shares at that reduced entry point... and therefore buying me MORE shares than if the market was full tilt boogie... so there's some offset for the pain I'm suffering. BY THE WAY -- you don't loose anything if you don't sell. Just as could be said that you don't have a gain until you sell and take it... but long term -- eventually you'll sell -- or sell part -- or use the collateral to have cheap borrowing (cash on cash borrowing is always cheap!). |
It sure has been an "easy" market... Glad you other guys got in on it too!
i re-calculated my Investing 102 stocks. My "total return" since starting this is at 21.8% :trophy-1302: :trophy-1302: Learned quite a bit here, and in the process of teaching the same general concepts to a few others in my life. One being my parents. Who basically threw darts to pick their 401k (followed what i picked, which, i generally just guessed by looking at the overall return numbers of the 1,3,5,10 year values. knowing nothing of the underlying stocks, dividends, etc, etc.). On a side note, the guys at work have been talking about Bitcoin the past couple days too. watching it sway up and down wildly. One buddy had like 100 "coins" from over the last couple years mining, he sold some, took the $5k he made from them, and build a kick ass "mining" computer to mine more coins. Not bad, but I dont have the $ to "gamble" that. I'll leave that one to the gamblers. Right now all my spare $ goes to rebuilding my emergency fund an my ROTH IRA. :) |
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Well the REAL difference in actual currencies is that they're backed by countries that make things - or produce things - and have tax payers (so actual revenue) etc. Of course we all know that the "full faith and credit" of some of these countries is complete BS.... and that only works IF they have enough cash flow to pay their gianormous debt load... But what I'm saying is there is a monumental difference between a national currency and a digital "game"/"trading scheme" for lack of a better definition which solely relies on the greater fool theory (i.e., someone else will pay more than you did). I'm not saying that Bitcoin can't or won't catch on and become an actual currency that can be used for everyday functions... I'm not a guy that believes in ANYONES predictions. That's just guessing or wishful thinking. But you never know! Personally - I think Bitcoin would catch on and would more likely become a currency if there were more of them and they were worth LESS.... and were used to buy things and pay bills --- rather than just (for the most part) being traded amongst the "faithful few". |
BY THE WAY ----- Bitcoin is trading at $120 this morning....
Last night when I check the "Bitcoin charts" --- which might as well be peering into the sky and counting stars (hahahahahahaha) it was trading at $170. I don't care one iota about this thing... it's just interesting to watch and perhaps LEARN from it. I hate to see anyone loose out on a great investment - but I really hate to see people just flat ass be stupid. The whole thing reminds me of guys that go out and buy a clapped out Fred Flintstone car because they can't afford to buy a version of it that actually runs and drives etc..... yet their dream is to build a Ridler car. Dude! Really! If you can't afford to buy a $25K car --- how are you going to turn that $5K car that needs floors - quarters - roof - cowl - chassis... into ANYTHING. So it's like investing.... we all want to be "rich" (hell - we all want to drive Ridler winners).... but if you're trying to build your nest egg --- is it smarter to gamble it --- or invest in real stuff? |
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Full disclosure, For what little that I have I'm staying in as its still trading for more than I paid. :) I am very happy for my buddy (who unlike me!) bought in at $8. He sold almost all of his on Monday for $188. He made out very well.. so I'm very happy for him recognizing the bubble and jumping ship at a good time! |
Bitcoin
Well === it didn't take long for the bubble to burst did it....
I'm always happy for anyone that scores - regardless of how they did it... My problem is with folks not having a clue about values of "things"... We all know housing can't double and triple every other year... we all know a 1969 Camaro CLONE (now called a tribute car) has no value at $200K.... yet somehow people get sucked in and sucked up. Tony - I agree there is some value in the Bitcoin system... but the value has to be in trading the "coins" for goods and services... Not just trading the coins themselves. So I agree with you... it's too bad that there was a pile on affect that made this go crazy and if it falls back to "norm" ($30ish) then it will hurt the legitimacy of the entire system. It's funny - people LOVE stuff when it's going up -- and when it comes back to "normal" they don't want to have anything to do with it (whatever it is). |
Whats a good thing to invest a large chunk of money into? Looking for at least a 10% return if thats even possible.....
Also would like to have access to the money. Commercial real estate a good idea? |
These recent posts on bitcoin have really guided me to learn more about currencies and so here's a summary based on how I understand it.
A currency falls into 2 categories: an instrument of equity, or an instrument of debt. A currency that is backed by a tangible asset (like gold) is an instrument of equity. At any time, your notes can be traded in for a ratio quantity of the asset. Of course, it can be argued that the value of gold is arbitrary, but there are a lot of valid reasons why it works. Not rocket science, but I'm stating the obvious to draw the distinction with non-backed currencies. A currency that is not backed by a tangible asset is only an instrument of debt; an IOU traded among people who agree on its value. It is only backed on faith by those using it. Again, not rocket science...the concepts are basic but thinking about the difference between an asset based monetary system vs a debt based monetary system and you start to see the world through a different lens. I know this is not directly Investing 102 material, but I think it applies, because it is important for us as investors to recognize the distinctions between not only speculation vs investing, but also the distinction between real assets and IOUs, aka liabilities. |
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John - That is not an easy one two answer... because you failed to provide adequate info such as: Term? i.e., retirement - one week - 5 years etc Also - can you stand (suffer) a decrease in capital during the holding period... Commercial real estate is ILLIQUID.... it provides the cash flow you're looking for - although not 10% - more like 7% -- you would NOT have access to the capital. So when you say you want to have access to the money -- do you want access to the cash flow the capital produces? Or do you need to have access to the capital as well? Personally - I use three different stocks to hold cash while providing me with a return. Go to Google Finance and just "search" these three stock symbols: JNK JNK is a a Junk Bond ETF (meaning a basket of high yielding low grade bonds) that pays a monthly dividend of 7.12% (annual) ---- or in other words 21 CENTS per share per month. HYG HYG is a high yield bond fund consisting of high yielding CORPORATE bonds. It pays 6.41% - or 49 cents per share per month. I use these because in the CURRENT fairly stable interest rate market -- these have a fairly stable per share price... and I like the monthly income while waiting for less risky investments. Since they pay monthly -- I don't have to pay as much attention to the timing of the buy or sell - since I'll only miss out on ONE months dividend rather than an entire quarters worth (3 months) if I miss time the event. NLY NLY - Annaly Capital Management is a mortgage based or mortgage RATE spread based company that pays a HUGE dividend quarterly... of 11.36% or 45 cents per share per QUARTER. THESE THREE ARE HIGHLY RISKY BASED ON INTEREST RATES.... but as I said above -- right now -- interest rates seem to be fairly stable. That can change and when it changes (we don't know how long or when) the capital basis will change - perhaps just a little - or perhaps a lot. That depends on how much the FED decides to jump the rate. |
I love stuff like this! It really tells me "you guys" are starting to see this INVESTING --- can be extremely interesting --- and it can be like a hobby like our cars are.... where you might not buy that part -- or that car - but you're interested enough to talk about it and LEARN something from it. I love it!
BY THE WAY --- BITCOIN is now DOWN to $71 That is DOWN 33% in ONE DAY. That my friends is a gut wrenching decrease in your "money" Quote:
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I looked at CON ED (ED) today -- just because it was one of the couple GREEN (up) shares so I wondered if there was some news... even though a utility company doesn't really produce much "interesting" news.... :>)
I see this STEADY EDDIE was UP over 11% already this year (since January 1st)... There's that trade off between steadying your investments (more important in a DOWN market) and the lower dividend rate.... but a nice total return non-the-less! Gotta love it! |
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