MCD Mcdonalds is really up today. I wonder if that stock will split soon?

I've been happy with ED. I doubled down on them after the hurricane brought them down some. Im up 15% overall from them. Not bad!

Never buy a stock based on a split or speculation of a split.... It's FUN when they do... but it's been proven that a split is nothing more than just that - a split. Having said that - that covers the Investing 102 portion - Mikey D's hasn't split since 1999... and they have a history of splitting - but not a particular "rhythm" i.e., every time they hit $100.... At $100ish it's a pretty "affordable" stock.. it's not like Google or Apple where you don't get many shares for your $5K. So you can't really make an argument that way.

In other words --- we'd just be guessing. Although wouldn't that be nice!








That's a smart man right there! To recognize a temporary dip in the price and seize the opportunity! Brilliant move!

The difference is you saw a valid reason for the stock to dip -- but knew that it's a good company and they would recover from it.

That's a very different scenario than a J C Penny's (JCP) where they're down because they shot themselves in the foot. Now a "dip" in the share price might be an entry point - but you'd just be gambling because there's nothing you can point to that would tell you they'll recover from that injury.

One is smart and educated - one is gambling. Big difference.

No, I never bought based on a split. MCD is a good dividend stock.
However it would be nice if they split. This is the longest they have ever gone with out a split.

Yeah, it might be nice if they did. But who knows. as long as the company continues to do well and increase the divvy each year, I'm happy. Currently sitting on 3.46% yield on cost for MCD. I dont mind the wait. Its not "Great" but its not bad either, and hopefully it continues on up!

I still love the principle of bitcoin. Yes, it has some serious weakness, one being that the main exchange was under constant dos hack attacks and at the same time flooded with new accounts. They were shut down all day yesterday. So its clear they need to shore that exchange, and more people need to use the dozens of other exchanges out there too. But CNBC has just officially added bitcoin to their ticker.. so that is pretty cool I think. We are seeing steady pricing today around $75 after all the weaklings sold out. :) I will remain in the system.. I see it only getting stronger and growing. And you can exchange for goods and services. There are websites where you can buy precious metals, electronics etc using it.

That's great. I think currency is interesting too. It important to remember that our dollar is not back by gold/silver anymore, it's an instrument of debt as is the euro and most other currencies from central banks. I don't want to derail the investing thread here, but it's good information to know. I still like the traditional topics here, but I also like precious metals and other investments for diversity.

On a percentage basis --- McDonalds (MCD) is a low paying dividend... BUT!! Check the dividend out... because a scant 4 years ago -- they paid a whopping 38 CENTS per share per quarter (2008) and now they're paying 77 cents per share per quarter!

So they LIKE to increase the dividend! Think about it - has YOUR income DOUBLED since 2008??? Does your employer like you that much? :>) MCD likes you so much they've doubled your pay!


Don't ya just love to think about all these little nuances?


By the way -- I point these things out -- not to belittle your statement or to argue etc --- but rather -- because it's good info for INVESTING 102.

No worries! I meant the same thing when i said "its not great..." as in, 3.5 isnt a "great" dividend amount. its simply average, at best. BUT, if they continue to move forward like they have, that 3.5 could be quite a bit higher for me in a few years.

And yeah.. my employer hasn't changed my income in YEARS. lol.

Use me for an example all we want. its all about learning, whether it be good or bad, its better for the entire group. :)

Well..... I hope not many of you are speculating in Gold....


I felt the metals market was a bubble for quite awhile now... too many people that know nothing - have never invested etc - all telling me about "gold". Big red flag to me... I've written about it here before - when the grocery store clerk is telling me about the money they're making doing "X"... I'm running away from "X" with my hair on fire.

I like diversification..... but I like my diversification to PAY ME -- up market or down market. I'm sure there are some gold ETF's or some gold investments out there that maybe pay a dividend (I've never bothered to look for them) but the trade has mostly been about a rising price. I just can't play that game. You can never bail out at the top and people don't sell until they've finally lost their ass. I like making money and keeping it... and getting the cash flow to spend... :snapout: :lol: :lol:

Gold
 

You don't see many outright SELL recommendations.... and I can't remember when the advice has actually been to SHORT something! Usually the PC version is "neutral"....


GUYS!! Please do not short anything - ever.... that advice takes some explanation but just don't do it!



The market has been increasingly negative on gold, with Goldman Sachs making a high-profile call to short it this week. "You've had lesser open interest. In the last few months, we lost about 20 percent of our open interest and on top of that every other asset manager has moved away from gold into strong stocks. Right now the path for least resistance for gold is lower," said RBC analyst George Gero.

McDonalds (MCD)
 

I would certainly agree with this executive.... While I rarely - and I mean - RARELY - eat at McDonalds... their service, and in fact, I think the cleanliness of their stores has suffered a lot in the last few years.

Most of the time I can't understand a word their staff says... I usually have to do a "HUH?" I think standards of service and cleanliness - dare I say it - foreigners - aren't the same as ours.

Having said that -- the very fact that they RECOGNIZE this as an issue - is fantastic IMHO because you can't fix something you don't see or understand.




http://www.nbcnews.com/business/mcdo...oken-1C9327907



BTW -- I don't eat at MCD not because I don't like their food or think they put out a bad product -- I just don't eat that way -- I don't drink or smoke either but I'm certainly happy spending the dividends from Altria (MO) etc.

As far as I'm concerned, Chicfila has set the fast food service standard and I've not found another company that can touch them so far. You can walk into a Chicfila that is slammed and get your food faster than you can at most other places that have only a few customers in line. They have a whole group of people working at one time not just a few. They'll bring you your food to your table a lot of the times. They speak up and are beyond courteous. When they have some special that they know will bring people in, they have even more people on staff working at that time. Simply put, they rock at service. I just wish they weren't private because I'd like to invest in them. Same thing with Subway.

So I'm looking at my savings account and how much I have in it. This is money I am saving to buy a house with eventually among other things. It is not money I need right now or use regularly. I figure it will be easily more than one year and a day before I would buy a house or really do anything with a substantial portion of the funds. I'm only earning 1% on the money right now but it's guaranteed unless the US decides to pull a Cyprus. At the very least, I won't lose any money though. What can I do though to earn more than 1% though? Considering I am risk adverse I'd be happy with 3%. What I don't want, is to lose money obviously.

What I'm considering is to take a large chunk of the money and put it into another brokerage account with Fidelity. My current brokerage account is with Vanguard under my Roth IRA. I mention this because I'm going to have to pay capital gains taxes on the earnings throughout the year with the money at Fidelity but I'm going to be doing that anyway with the money left in the savings account. I figure if I stick with dividend paying stocks, diversify, and stay with solid companies, I should be ok even though this is short term at this point instead of long term like my other stuff. Really, I just want to safely earn more than 1%. Besides, by the time I actually buy a house, I may have replenished my savings and not have to even touch this money I'm considering moving around now.

So how does that sound? Think it's fairly safe? Obviously, we can't know the future but I'm just trying to earn a little bit more than I am now with the money. Are there other options I should consider? From what I've seen, CD rates are crap but I don't know what else is out there. Greg and others, I know you guys have you cash with JNK and other type stocks. Considering this is short term, should I consider those options or is the risk and the vigilance on checking the stock too high? I wouldn't be interested in anything that requires me to watch it by the hour daily.

Thanks everyone

I have no issues with McDonalds its fine when on the road driving a quick stop to grab breakfast. Too many better places to grab lunch and dinner to east there.

You can't have your cake and eat it too..... so you can't say "you don't want to loose a dime" ----- and make money on your money. You're either going to be super safe and not risk capital --- or you're going to risk capital and make some income. SHORT TERM -- no way to do both.

Like the old saying goes -- don't invest money you're going to need. The risk of LOSING 10% in order to make 2% more isn't worth it.

If you had a 5 year horizon it would be different - but you don't. So stay put.

In the interest of full disclosure ---- I have decided to sell my positions in Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Junk Bond ETF (JNK).

I use these to "park" cash --- and as such have very substantial positions. They both have very nice short term (fully taxed) gains. And while they provide substantial positive cash flow they also come with a high degree of risk.

It "appears" that the FED is readying the market for their inevitable exit from QE (easing) of interest rates... and I want to be AHEAD of that game. When you couple the usual "sell in May and go away" --- and the possible -- note possible -- reduced FED QE this summer.... I want to trade when I want to and lock in a nice gain.

If it doesn't work out --- I'll re-buy these at some point down the road. I've used them for a long time and they've been very good places to park and make a return.

Too many posts.... I know... but I like to share with you all when I "think" about something that has bearing on this thread.


The old saying "pigs get fat - hogs get slaughtered" must be thought about as we watch Gold and Silver get absolutely pounded here!


When it (gold) was at $1800 --- all the talk was about it going to $2000! When people start talking about stuff like that --- and predicting it --- that should signal a "top" in the price. That my friends is a sure fired signal to SELL.

Once again it's the old (my truism) --- when the grocery store clerk is telling you about their investment in Gold/Silver..... SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Apple (AAPL) is another one that comes to mind -- at $600 -- all the talking heads came on TV and pronounced $1000 was the next stop... it promptly (relatively speaking) dropped to $400...


Once EVERYONE is convinced that something is going to go bananas.... Pay attention to that and RUN AWAY with your hair on fire. These types of predictions rarely come true - and more often they signal a top is near. Yeah - something might go up for awhile after everyone is convinced -- but I'd rather get out with a "nice" profit (a pig) -- than I would gamble on getting the "maximum" (a hog) profit.

Still if you look at the 10year chart on Gold its pretty impressive.

I think this is a good buying opportunity for gold and silver. I say that with a bit of hesitation because they are still sold on paper so can still be manipulated. But long term they are solid. And when I say 'buy' I mean take physical delivery.

A sudden drop like this in gold is not normal....


What Happened The Last Time We Saw Gold Drop Like This?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-saw-gold-drop

Greg, i dont think you need to "full disclosure" us on here do you? I really apprieciate that you do, I really apprieciate your 35 years +/- of investment teaching. I like what you tell us what your gonna do in terms of "macro" investing, i believe everything can trickle down, exponentially of course. But the same applies, does it not?

I know history often repeats itself, "I think it will reach $_____," run baby run....

I finally opened my Schawb acct and funded it. I cant get all the basics down though. How to buy. I am going to attend one of the seminars on the basics, heck, i dont even know how to do paypal. I understand alot of whats said here, but buying things electronically i am still a newb. So hopefully this basic classes will help. I wish it was that easy, maybe it is, and i may be over thinking this. Its probably the "101" i need help with....haha.

thanx all, Mike

#1 -- Glad to hear you've opened up an account... AWESOME... that's a big step forward.



#2 -- Taking a class is a brilliant idea! You don't want to be playing around and push the wrong buttons and accidentally sell or buy something!



#3 -- I'm kinda kidding when I do the "in full discloser" -- and I certainly don't want people to invest in what we use as examples etc -- but I know dang well that they do - because it's easy. I just want people to learn the basics on their own - but I also feel some responsibility. We've talked about several names in here on a repeated basis... I want people to also understand HOW to think about their investments. That's more important than anything else to me. That they start to THINK about cause and affects - relationships etc.



#4 -- If I have 10 or 15 or 20 years before I retire -- I do and think DIFFERENTLY than those guys that are like me - living off their investments. There are all types reading these threads (cars - health - wealth) and I usually try to post accordingly. Cover all the bases so to speak. If you toss enough info out there -- someone will pick the nugget THEY need from it.

Mike,

Congrats!!

If you'd like some guidance, before the classes (I'm not sure how soon they are for you). I'd be happy to help over the phone one of these afternoons/evenings.

Albert

I like what Crammer said about Gold today.... "it's owned by people that like to buy high".

In other words -- it only works when it's going up... and then you get the pile on affect.



BTW -- Just because it's fun to live and learn -- from the sidelines.... Thanks to TonySS we're getting to watch the implosion of BITCOIN.... it's DOWN 41% today - and is now trading @ $59..... That's a pretty steep decline from $170 a whopping 5 days ago.

Who cares to buy "on the dips"?? Anyone? Oh come on.... :snapout: :bang:

That 10yr Gold chart looks pretty good to me. :)

Regarding bitcoin, it seems obvious that some deep pockets have manipulated that smaller market. From that perspective, it's mission accomplished.

I'll repeat just for good measure.... for Investing 102.... Buy what you know and understand... buy "best of breed"... Don't gamble, invest. It's not always about making money, it's about keeping the money you make.


Here's my personal take on buyers of precious metals and stuff like Bitcoin - and this is not a personal slam - it's just a fact..... if you're checking the price of the stuff you've bought hourly.... you shouldn't be in it. Housing got that way... dot bombs got that way... Gold got that way... Bitcoin was a 3 month story that got that way.


TonySS -- To answer your 10 year chart on gold. Yes the chart is lower on the left and higher on the right. So there's no doubt that lots of people made lots of money on gold. What I don't like about that kind of "investment" is that I don't think people own it for the right reasons. They're SPECULATING... rather than INVESTING. By the way -- the inflation adjusted HIGH for GOLD was set back in 1980 at $2300. So if you'd bought and held for the last 33 years -- you've LOST A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY.


http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/i...tion_chart.htm

Compare that to having just bought a Dow 30 component as shown on these charts. If you scroll down - you will see a chart that goes back to before 1980 and there is also a list of DOW stocks that you can click on and see their inflation adjusted value. I just clicked on McDonalds -- so that's the first charts to come up.



http://www.aboutinflation.com/Dow-Jo...sted-chart-mcd

after yesterdays sell off, i figured today would be a bit more of the same.

Surprised to see most of everything "in the green" and shocked to see Coca-Cola up 5%! Wowzers!

Agree with you Greg. As far as pricing things in 'inflated dollars' it gets a little tricky. All of the guys I was listening to were saying to buy gold (this is when it was $600). They stop saying that around $1000 as a bubble started to appear. Sure enough it became a fad, you heard about on your 'talk radio' and it started to bubble. And now the correction (manipulation?) I do think it's still a decent hedge against inflation, but like you say, not as any majority.

Tony SS. There is no questionmark about the manipulation of the PM market...

The Big banks and the FEDS are for sure manipulating the price. I did not sell at the peak but I did put in a large sell order on Thursday..Pretty much listening to Goldman Sachs. They told us they were about to lower the price...And boy did they..

That is why PM's are not an Investment...I do hold them but it is not really a wealth builder.. Real Estate and Stocks are..

Question from the peanut gallery:

With the summer doldrums on the horizon along with the rumors of the fed exiting QE, which stocks or sectors are going to get hit the most by these two events?

I haven't been in this long enough to have seen either play out in the past, but if Greg is getting his ducks in a row, I'm paying attention.


P.S. I'm still reading and learning. Thanks to everyone for keeping this thread going.

Welcome Tyler!

I unfortunately don't have the answers to your questions.

But, I dont base my actions based on what Greg does. He is in a different situation than most of us. I am investing for long term retirement. So short term ups/downs dont matter a whole lot to me. He is investing for short term gain (his income) and sustained investing for his future income.

You'll learn as you read through these pages that "Timing" the market isn't very successful. Just look at today for example. The market dropped ~2% yesterday. My investments took a good hit (worse one i've seen since i started this). However, today, its back up. and one of them (KO) is up 5+% today. I would of likely "missed" that if i would have been trying to time the "low point" of the market, rather than just getting in whenever i could.

Good luck!

SUPER SUPER GOOD POINTS!!!!

Tyler --- #1 I didn't sell any long term positions -- I sold two stocks where I park cash....


#2 --- We'd need to know your time horizons and what kinds of account(s) you're talking about.... because if they're long term retirement accounts then as Albert stated... there's no need to be worried about "this summer" etc.


So without talking dollars --- just give us a clue about your investing goals - and time frames etc.


I'm leaving for a week plus on a nice car road trip so may not be on much.

Greg, I'm 35 and investing for retirement. I don't yet know what age that will be. I hope before 65. I'm working hard to make that happen.

As a budding long term investor, "this summer" isn't going to mean much for me, and I realize that. My question was more for learning. Maybe I asked incorrectly.

You wrote a few days ago:

It "appears" that the FED is readying the market for their inevitable exit from QE (easing) of interest rates... and I want to be AHEAD of that game. When you couple the usual "sell in May and go away" --- and the possible -- note possible -- reduced FED QE this summer.... I want to trade when I want to and lock in a nice gain.


I read into your statement that you see a good time for buying. In your opinion, what do you see happening? Anything the long term investor needs to be concerned or excited about?

You sold your 'paper holdings' ? I still think holding physical is valuable... at least the Queen agrees. :lol:

http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibti...d-thursday.jpg

Tony....Yes some ETF's....I just lightened up my positions in PM's. I will still continue to hold some paper ETF's in Canada and also keep all physical Metals...

I realize that with 300 pages -- it's going to take some time to slog thru all that is in this thread... but welcome and take the time to start on page one... :>)




The "market" has a history of being lower throughout the summer months... for no particular reason really - except that people take time off - they go on vacation - the traders and "market makers" are out in their swanky dumps at the Hamptons etc...

So with that said -- the old saying "sell in May... and go away" -- is an old saying for a very good reason. Generally the market is higher going into May and then seems to just ebb down -- and comes back for the 4th quarter (September thru December). The "odds" are that happens more often than not.

We have another large market factor hanging over our heads -- that is -- the ECONOMY.... and if it really is making a comeback or not -- which means whether or not the FEDERAL RESERVE starts to let interest rates climb... We have no crystal ball... but IF -- always a big IF -- the economy is good and rates rise a little -- that will affect INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE stocks -- such as the two I just sold (JNK and NLY).

Okay -- so if you couple those facts with the "sell in May and go away" odds... and the "usual" market swoon in the summer.... It's a pretty good chance that the market will be buyable at lower prices than today. Maybe. Maybe not. We might just rally all summer... NOBODY -- and I mean NOBODY can tell you what it will do. It's GUESSING. It's PROBABILITY. It's ODDS.

So ----- now that you've read all of that.... I personally would WAIT -- if you're not already in the market --- for the summer swoon and plan exactly what you're going to buy -- and how much -- and I'd be picking away at that list sometime in July and August. Maybe we rally and you just pay higher prices -- and maybe we get the usual swoon and you save a buck a share.


Here's the fudge factor. If you're buying DIVIDEND paying stocks... You want to time your buy on the EX DATE.... and then you'll pick up the dividend for the following quarter. So if you have a list -- you'll want to note the EX DATES for each stock - and set a reminder on your phone or whatever - and be ready to put in a purchase for those shares.

But the real fudge factor is -- how much are you investing. In other words -- how much money in each stock --- if you plan to buy 100 shares of each company -- and they're trading at $45 a share.... in the long run - does it really matter if you paid $44 or 45.75? Not really. Not really at all. It's a nice ego stroke to have bought in on the dip but for your retirement it won't count one iota. ZIP. NADA. And you may have only paid $44 but you missed the .35 dividend payment by a week -- and now must wait 3 more months to get another dividend payment.... so now we're talking even less of a great buy.

That's why market timing doesn't work. You'll not get in at the bottom -- and you'll never sell at the top. And if you read this thread -- you're going to finally understand that you have 30 years to retire -- and just because you retire in 30 years doesn't mean you're dead! Ya got another 30 years to live! So now your real "horizon" is more like 55 or 60 years!! My advice is to just get going. If you want to -- wait for the "maybe" summer swoon.... it'll make ya feel better if it happens.

Does that make sense?

Again Greg..Thanks for taking the Time to give your input on things...

My input isn't worth the paper it's written on.... it's just the ramblings of a worn out old guy with nothing better to do. Hey! That sounds like a description of CONGRESS!!



NOTE TO TONY.... how many people do you know that have the ability to safely store precious metals? If you pay for offsite storage you've lost your ability to access in an emergency... so it needs to be at home. I don't know about you -- but I'm not storing 50/100 grand or more in "cash"/"metals" in my house. And I have some pretty bitchin' safes (at least TWO of them and they're far larger than the average guys!) It's hard to keep a secret -- and these days -- with kids posting crap on the internet -- who knows what they tell their friends and then their friends tell someone else - and the next thing you know you're duct taped to a chair with a gun to your head or worse. No thanks.

I think that's why they invented BANKS in the first place. I don't keep stock certificates either. They're all electronic -- somewhere...

I guess that after 200+ years -- I have to place some faith in my government even as F'd up as they seem to be... ya gotta trust someone... and if our government goes to hell... I don't think we'll be worrying about a few lousy bucks stored out back in our buried coffee cans.

Take the money - put it in a brokerage - invest it wisely - let it grow... let it EARN money... next thing you know - you'll only be worried about which car you're going to have to wash tomorrow before you head off to a show somewhere. :snapout: :lol: :lol:

crazy week this week in the market (from my portfolio's perspective). Big Gain followed by big loss, followed by KO shooting up 5+% in one day, and now my KMB is hitting 4+% today. crazy.

Albert,


#1 -- I hope your Dad is doing fine!



#2 -- The "market" is always a hoot when things are going well.... Nothing better than "money for nothing" <stolen from the old Dire Straits song>