Greg,

if Congress raised taxes on capital gains to say 35% do you think that would have investors sitting on their investments instead of selling, or moving into a foreign market? Or would it have little effect on the way things are going? I would think that this move would not bring more revenue in necessarily, it may have the opposite effect.

Greg enters the room with a funny hat/towel wrapped around his head - sits down at small table and stares into his crystal ball.... soft music (like Led Zeppelin or ZZ TOP) playing in the background...

And pronounces.......... wait for it.........


I have absolutely no idea.


IF -- HUGE - GIANT - LARGE - MONUMENTAL "IF" - Congress can do ANYTHING - they'll do it ALL WRONG. That's my bet. Don't even get me started with those 535 assholes - 536 if you count the head asshole.

If taxes revert to the code (we're currently enjoying a tax holiday) then it's a math issue. The TOTAL RETURN - vs some other investment. And there are calculators that will calculate the return you have to have, say, in a dividend at "X" tax rate to equal the return on a tax free bond.

So as interest rates RISE -- BOND face values will get hit first... since they are a known time - known interest rate... they'll sell off - because they have an inverse relationship - their face value has to DECREASE in order to pay the equivalent "new" interest rate. Too complicated??

Stock prices will no doubt DECREASE -- based on the same issue - the price has to go down in order to keep the dividend % "higher". Again - an inverse relationship. And if the dividend is now taxed at ordinary income levels -- people will sell and look for "other" investments - thus the price will decline (more sellers than buyers - and that in a nutshell is ANY MARKET FOR ANYTHING). They will also decrease because as the cost of money rises - it come out of operating profits... and the costs increase faster than the ability to raise prices and margins etc.

I'm very heavily invested in stocks and bonds - and I would tell you that I'd begin to move from taxable investments to more tax free income - but I'm LIVING off my dividend and interest income. If I was in an IRA/401K situation - I'd do absolutely nothing because those dividends etc aren't taxed until withdrawal.... so like most answers to these questions -- it all DEPENDS... age - length of time - what kinds of accounts - etc.

thank you Greg. Having a discussion regarding this on another board, and not sure that raising capital gains like that wouldn't have unintended consequences.

Oh - I think it will have major consequences... and that's the problem with messing with the tax code - people can't plan and can't invest not knowing what is going to be next year or the year after.

Congress ends up doing what is POLITICALLY CORRECT at any given time.... rather than doing what is the RIGHT thing for all time. They are a collective group of useless morons. Sadly we voted for them.

So politically I would EXPECT them to vote for higher taxes -- and what that does is once again - affect the people that don't understand what's going on - the most. In their effort to ever spend MORE AND MORE of your money - they'll grab every last dollar they can see or get their hands on. And when they do that - the PEOPLE are smarter - and they just move in a different direction. Like the 10% "luxury tax" the idiots put on boats and cars and furs a few years back --- the only people that hurt was the boat builders and the people that worked there. Congress is reactive not proactive. They never get it right.

However - I will come back to what I've always said about taxes.... they only take a percentage so I'm happiest when I have to pay - because that means I've made money. End of story. I'd prefer to pay them the maximum over the minimum. To think of it any other way - is just wrong headed.

those damned unintended consequences coming back to haunt 'ya. :yes: Thanks Greg, appreciate the input.

I am young (28, everyone on this forum tells me this is young) and have been biding my time until 2012 to convert my SEP into a Roth IRA...my wife started school, so her not working lowers our tax rate. Seems to be prudent to switch to a Roth early in your investing career or other low tax situations, when your income is less. Give as little to the man as possible.

The Roth cynics have warned me that in the long run, congress will not be able to keep their hands off the Roths and will implement a tax to get us again at withdraw. Can't say I disagree with their cynicism but I'm sure you will still come out way ahead vs. not converting in the first place.

PS Greg, I put some of my money where your mouth is today...did you feel the bump in your portfolio? :P

Steven

It's hard to predict what will happen but it seems unlikely that they'd go after roths as they are essentially for the middle class, and Congress has shown an aversion to doing anything that will bother older people, the people who tend to vote, and by the time they would consider this (after they look at the various other ways being talked about in this thread), most people with strong Roths would be part of that group.

Steven -- I agree with RealCoray that the idiots in congress would try to suddenly backtrack on one of the greatest savings inventions of all time... and they'd have legal fights for years from huge groups of people - so I really doubt there's going to be any changes to that program.

On the other note --- I'm glad you're getting started... but my portfolio went backwards today (in the one Schwab account I always use for this thread) because of the Xmas gift I got my lovely wife Gwen -- I'd written a check out of this account to pay for it. BUT -- my bond account rose nicely with a whole slew of interest payments on the first of the year - so all in all a "wash". :cheers:

PS -- STEVEN --- Very smart move at your age to do the ROTH conversion! You have say 40 years to retirement - and hopefully you live at least another 30 years after that! So you have many many great years for that ROTH to grow absolutely tax free.... It just doesn't get any better than that!

I also jumped on the Roth IRA bandwagon today. Now I've got to get these accounts stuffed with some money and look towards acquiring some other assets that pay. Made a couple of stock moves (sell the duds and picked up some new ones) also. Looking forward to a financially fit 2012. We'll see where its at this time next year.

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout!! Good for you Jose!



I had an opportunity to spend some time with my kids while we were down in Scottsdale this last week -- Alex's GF's Dad is a broker - owns his own financial firm....(has no money and went broke recently because he gives advice but doesn't follow his own - the dumbass!) and I had the paperwork with me from just having closed on a commercial building for my Brother in law (I'm the banker, not the buyer). So we got talking over breakfast about "her" wanting to buy a new car etc. Her car is already a newer 2006 Mustang with low milage - SO I'm saying "why"? Why don't you SAVE those payments (her's in going to be paid off next month) for the next three years and pay cash for a car when you're ready. So the "payments" talk came up -- and I whipped out my amortization schedule for this building - and showed her (and Alex) HOW MUCH INTEREST I'M GOING TO COLLECT OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS! They were shocked (they're only 25 year old) - and when they saw page after page of large monthly payments, and the breakdown of how much each month was interest, and HOW LITTLE was paying towards principal -- I think it woke them both up!

She's already a "saver" -- but I was trying to show that if they put new cars off now - and saved instead -- that they could buy all kinds of cars LATER when it really matters more.

This is just a coincidence but I saw this article this afternoon - using APPLE and McDonalds as it's subjects - and happens to use these two to make the very same "argument" that I had posted earlier about APPLE VS ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT... just pointing out that the dividend was a "sure thing" vs the possible capital growth...

Not saying ANY of this is RIGHT OR WRONG - just pointing out the THINKING that goes into investing... and I think that's what we are using this thread for...



http://seekingalpha.com/article/3172...-apple-in-2012

BTW -- I read all of these kinds of articles just for "thinking" -- I don't use ANYBODY else's reasoning or stock tips etc to make up my own mind. I just try to find things to think about and keep in mind when I'm making CHOICES because that's really what stock picking is all about - choices... And trying the best we can to make "informed" choices and understand those choices.

hey Greg,

I opened a T Rowe Price account 5 years ago. It's one of those accounts that automatically deducts money from your checking account every month to invest in mutual funds. I have 2 funds. A domestic eqty index and an international eqty index. after 5 years they are flat (with todays near 200pt gain they are just slightly above my contribution).

I think I want to dump them and put the money in a few individual stocks as we've been discussing. The current account I have with T Rowe doesn't enable me to trade individual stocks. I have to open a brokerage account for that. No biggie but my question is, should I open the brokerage account with T Rowe for stocks or should I go with someone else?

thanks!

Your story is repeated all too often - and is the #1 reason I detest Mutual Funds... they draw people into believing that they're "well invested"...

RE Brokerage -- as long as it's a low cost brokerage and you can invest on line etc -- I'm not a fan of one over the other. It's a very competitive arena out there and most play follow the leader. I use Schwab for some of my accounts just because there's one just down the street.

It might be easier for you to do T Rowe -- and if one department talks to the other - they might allow you to just have your work withdrawals go into a "sweep account" (cash) and then allow you to transfer from time to time into your other account... but be very careful in how this is handled. IRA's and 401's etc must STAY within a IRA or 401 account...

Here's a tidbit that I'll toss out ..... it doesn't have anything to do with the overall thread topic - Investing 102 - but it is relative to this thread and it's timing in my world ......

I mentioned in my first post in this thread that the topic has motivated me to look at my retirement accounts. I had an IRA account with some dollars that were sitting in "cash reserve", and so I used the theory of this thread to move that cash into several stocks. Then, I looked at my current 401K and rebalanced those funds so that hopefully this coming year I'll see some growth there, other than my contribution.

Since I was on a roll, I decided to contact two previous employers concerning any pension benefits that I may have. I had rolled my retirement account dollars from one employer to the next as I moved thru my career, but I hadn't thought about much beyond that. So I contacted my employer from the 1989 thru 2000 timeframe and asked about any pension benefits, beyond my 401K. Lo and behold, when I retire at 65, I'll receive a small pension from them! Feeling good, I called my 1983 thru 1989 employer ... yep, pension cash from them also once I retire.

Although I'm only 52 and don't plan to retire until my mid-60's .... I'll pull in close to $800/month more than I had anticipated. All due to the energy around this thread!!!!

Now for that old man I cut grass for when I was in elementary school ......

That is the best friggin' news I've heard all year! Good for you Bill!

Funny how we ALL somehow manage to kind of "disassociate" ourselves from our retirement and the funds etc. Yet - it is one of the most important things that we can, and should, manage to the best of our abilities!

Simple functions such as just being AWARE of what the money is doing - or not doing - and then spending as little as a couple of hours here and there a YEAR - to make sure there is something there when you'll really want it. All to often people start to take control AFTER they have retired. WTF - the time to do that is NOW -- when most have TIME on their sides to make hay while the sun shines....

On another note --- Way back up in the thread - someone asked me about a couple of stocks -- that were "defense" related... I don't remember the names or who it was that asked - but my thought was to be careful with this sector because I think with a couple wars winding down and the budget cuts coming - that defense spending is most likely going DOWN not up.... And todays news confirms that...

That is news that needs to be "traded" --- because you can't sit on your hands for 10 years or so while a company shrinks... So if you own "defense" related stocks -- I'd be getting out of those. Boeing has commercial aircraft and hopefully their sales overall can continue to grow.

Boeing and other defense companies face shrinking Pentagon budgets. The Defense Department is currently trimming some $450 billion over the next decade, and cuts could go deeper.

So here's something that "newbs" to investing 102 might not understand --

You get up one morning and your stock is "down" for the day -- and everything else you have is UP... WTF? What's wrong with that stock?

Dividend paying stocks go "ex" dividend on a particular date - it's well known - and is announced in advance.... and once they pay the dividend - the stock goes down because many dividend players just want to pick up the dividend and then sell the shares... AND the company has just paid out CASH so that affects the balance sheet.

I'll use AT&T as an example - since it went "ex dividend" today and it's down .50 this morning.... Here's what the notice looks like.


Regular Dividend of $0.44 went Ex: T began trading ex-dividend today, payable to shareholders of record as of 01/10/2012.

Since you brought up dividends, is there a time frame of when you'll start to receive them if you own some shares of that stock? If you bought Monday and Friday they're paying dividends, will you receive that? Lastly, is there a schedule when dividends are paid?

The Ex-Dividend date is a declared date which you must purchase the shares on or before. It's a couple of days prior to the technical date of record to receive the dividend (to allow for processing, etc.) Most (or probably all) dividend paying companies press release the declared dividends that will be and the ex-dividend date. I am not sure if all have fixed schedules (or if there is some latitiude allowed to ex-dividend dates) but all of mine are the same month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter.

Each company is separate - and pay dividends on different days. So you'd have to look up each company and see what their pay dates are.

Most pay quarterly.

They will make an announcement as to what the "ex dividend" date is... and if you own the shares prior to that day.. you will get the dividend even if you sold it after the ex date... but the actual pay date is sometimes weeks after the "ex" date.

Confusing, I know. But we're "INVESTING" not trading. There are traders that will just attempt to trade around the dividend - by coming in the day before - and selling shortly after - and picking up the dividend and perhaps a few pennies gain but they're very sharp - and have all the details down.

Here's a website that you can get that kind of info - such as the declare date - the ex date - the pay date...but you'll have to check each company separately. This sites info is easy to read - just scan down and it gives you all the pertinent info.

http://www.dividendinvestor.com/

Greg,

Since I'm close to pulling the trigger on T is the first of the week traditionally a good time to buy in?

Sprint at $2.19 today.........short-term opportunity?

Sorry -- I just don't pay any attention to that kind of stuff. T (AT&T) trades in a very narrow range -- whether I buy it down .25 or up .35 just isn't important to me... I'll get that back the first dividend payment -- which is what I'm after.

With the amount of shares I buy (1000's of shares in a name) I tend to scale in and scale out... so if I want to own 10,000 shares -- I might start with 5000 -- then buy another 2,000 on a big down day (market wise)... But that's just because it's the way I work. Not for any other reason than that. I never just punch the button and buy or sell all 10,000.

That's a little different "level" than most on here will be doing. So I don't think saving - or trying to save - .50 a share on a 500 share buy is very important. The important part is that next year - or 3 years out - the stock will be higher and I'll have gotten all those dividends.

+++++++++++++++


RE: Sprint -- again -- that just isn't the way I invest. I don't "gamble"... so unless the stock is something I think is a good -- make that a great -- long term investment... I just don't even look at them. I'd rather "miss an opportunity" than I would wake up in the middle of the night wondering if I'm getting creamed in the morning.

I also look at the possible gain scenario.... so If I was going to buy 1000 shares at 2.15 and they went up a buck.... I'd have a gain of $1000 and since that would be my "goal" (short term pop) then I'd have to sell - now I have a SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAIN (since I'm not trading IRA/401) and now I have an income tax event taxable at ordinary income tax rates rather than the 15% long term capital gains rate.

Just trying to explain so that others can "think" about all of these things....

Thank you - I'm guessing I'm not the only one that can have a tendancy to micro-manage the purchase price of a stock......so hopefully there's a lesson learned from the question.

Then there's the Sprint or XXX stock get rich quick gambling temptation and risk vs net reward factoring - another lesson.

Yep -- and that was the point of my response.... That "we're" not chasing pennies... "we're" investing in long term capital growth and dividend streams. The pennies aren't really important long term.

I used to chase every opportunity - and buy stocks and flip them out up 50 cents or a buck... I paid the taxes on all that - and then looked back and saw that while I was making 50 cents a share -- the shares have climbed 40%... and had I just bought the first time and let 'em ride - I'd have made A LOT more money. I stopped doing that in 1998 to be exact... and started to invest . It's a much better strategy.

Now - if everyone on here already had 3 or 4 or 5 million - then we'd be discussing the next hot opportunity.... because at some point "you have enough" and can now truly "afford" to take some risk...(gambling) and then we'd be having an entirely different discussion.

I'll pm you....................:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

I don't have the next hot opportunity.... :D



I've hit a couple in the past... but don't have any in the works now. In fact, I quit even looking for them. I'm too old. :willy: :unibrow:

Went back to make sure I hadn't said anything too "off" -- and this got me to thinking about the "short term" Sprint question.

Think about this... and I'm just tossing this out there as a way of thinking rather than sitting down and doing all the math required etc.

A $2.15 stock.... Hold that thought -- AT&T pays a dividend of .44 per quarter -- so they pay you $1.76 per share per year in income.... so in 5 stinky quarters you'd have made in dividends what the cost of the Sprint shares were. By the 6th quarter (one and a half short years) you're ahead of the game... and you didn't have do to a thing.


One is "sure money" - the other is a gamble... If it's in my IRA/401K -- I'll take the sure money. If I have spare money or just some "what the hell" money - then the Sprint play (pick a name here) can be entertaining and some times you'll make a couple bucks.

Well, I haven't been able to research stocks as much as I had hoped to by now but that's ok. I'll get to it soon enough. It is however the beginning of the year which for me means it is time to max my Roth IRA out for this year. It also means it is time to check out what my Roth has done over the past year. I have my Roth set up with Vanguard in their Target Retirement 2045 account. The good news is it is up. I've had this account since 2003 and haven't maxed it out each year. I've added what I could when I could. Now that I actually have a career, I can max it out with $5000 a year. According to the info on my account, since inception in 2003 my average annual returns have been (drum roll please)..... 5.32%

Honestly, I haven't a clue if this is any good or just how much my investment has returned as a whole ie I've put in a total of X and it's now worth Y which means my return is Z%. I'm having trouble reading the website and finding the info I want. Then again, is it important or is what I need to know the 5.32% part and that's it?

Over a 5 year period I've had both growth and dividend/earnings. More dividends/earnings than growth but only slightly.

Now I feel much better about the spare change order at $2.19 for 1K............:hail: :woot:

Well... this thread is all "theory" and ways to think about the market/investing. It's not the absolute "do this and don't do that" kind of thread...

And for people that want to play in the market I say go for it. I've done this for years so I understand it completely. I don't think there is a right way or a wrong way (well - yeah there is a wrong way) to try to make some money and each person has to find out what that is - what their risk tolerance is etc.

Along those lines -- my buddy wanted to get into the market - and we discussed all the things that we've discussed here.... and he can "take risk" no problem - so he says. The very first stock he buys is a splitter. LuLuLemon (LULU)... buys at $120 - and it splits 2:1 - and he's certain it's going to the moon from there... but instead it starts dropping... and it drops to $45 or so... and he's like a cat on speed over it. When it finally gets back to about 52 or 3 he sells it all...

The take away from that is he has now recognized something in himself that will stick with him -- his appetite for risk really wasn't what he thought it was.. so this was a cheap lesson for him. It will make him a better investor.

What I've noticed about myself is that I tend to look at a risk like the Sprint buy as a gamble and challenge...........as to why it entices me to buy a stock like that I'm not sure as I DO NOT like to gamble in the traditional casino, card game, or sports fashion at all. I will wager on a game when my performance and skill is involved but don't really get a rush from it.

I don't consider myself lucky either which adds to "why the heck did I do that" factor. On a roulette wheel I've bet red 7 times in a row, switched to black 6 times and lost every time. :D

Help..............:D

Well, I finally sat down and did some quick research on what companies I may be interested in. I tried to first come up with four different categories and companies within those categories that I use or like. I ended up blending some of them simply because I had no clue how they were officially listed. I chose petroleum/energy, utility, retail, and food. The retail and food ones got blended as you'll see. I haven't spent any money yet because I haven't opened the accounts etc. So these are just my choices of who I intend to invest in unless I can be convinced otherwise. I'm more than open to having my choices critiqued.

Petroleum- Chevron. High dividend and good growth over the last ten years. My first choice in gas for my vehicles is Chevron and Marathon. Marathon isn't doing so well stock wise though. I considered Exxon but their growth and dividend were less than Chevron.

Utility- Southern Company. Good dividend and good steady growth over the last ten years. They own Georgia Power and I'm biased towards all things Georgia. I considered Black Hills Energy(my current provider) and Con Ed based on Greg's recommendation. Southern Company has a slightly smaller dividend than Con Ed but more steady growth and again I'm biased so I like Southern Company.

Retail/Food- I'm in a tie right now between Walmart, Whole Foods, and CostCo. Walmart's dividend is nearly 100% higher than Whole Foods but their growth is flat. I'm aware they are trying to get into just the grocery store market and I think they will do well there. However, Whole Foods has tremendous growth over the last ten years. I also really like them even though I do not shop there. I do not foresee their popularity waning any time soon. If anything, I believe more people are going to shop there and the entire healthy/fresher food area of the market is going to grow. I also really like how they treat their employees. CostCo is another choice that has good dividend, good growth, and treats their employees in an excellent manner. So I'm really kind of torn between these three and am unsure which would be a better/wiser choice.

I looked into the soft drink segment as well because no matter how much health people declare soft drinks to be terrible for us, I doubt they will ever slow down sales enough to hurt. So again, my Georgia and Southern bias has stepped in an I'm looking at the Coca Cola Company(not Coke Bottling Company) and Dr Pepper. You can't get any more Southern than those two unless RC Cola can be found somewhere near you. It's basically a tie between the two with Coca Cola having a higher dividend and more history. So I think I'll lean towards Coca Cola. The only negative I see against it is that is costs a lot more than Dr Pepper. Does that really matter though? The dividends are paid out based on dollar amount not shares so unless the stock splits, cost shouldn't matter, correct?

For food, I wanted either Subway or Chic-fil-a but both are private so I looked at McDonal's and YUM Brands(Taco Bell etc). I'm going with McDonald's. Very high dividend, great growth, Greg's endorsement:bow: haha, and just like with soft drinks, people aren't going to stop slowing down their consumption of that stuff any time soon I feel.

So, how do those look to people in the know? Any suggestions or critiques are welcome like I said. I'm trying to learn and get involved but at the same time keep it simple.

I think I should also point out that I do own Halliburton stock. I work there and have money in the ESPP. I'm not including them though simply because I'm putting my money into them regardless since it's through the ESPP which is discounted. However, because I do own them I am not considering any of my competitors though there are some good choices in that segment. Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford to name the biggest ones. For those that don't know, we are service companies within the petroleum market. We are not petroleum companies. We are contracted with the petroleum companies like Chevron, Shell, etc. So I guess you could call it a subcategory of the petroleum market.

Thanks

Well crap. Right after I posted I thought of another petroleum company to look into and now I am torn slightly. Occidental Petroleum has tremendous 10 year growth compared to Chevron but a much lower dividend. So which should I really pay attention to, dividend or growth? I'm leaning towards dividend because that's paid out and some what guaranteed where as growth may not be. Is that an ok way to look at it or not?

Conoco Philips is also on par with Chevron but their dividend is slightly lower so between those two, I choose Chevron.

Trey ---

Your thought process is right on the money... and that is really what investing is all about. NOBODY can pick the exact right company or exactly perfect sector/s to invest in. The key is to do exactly what you're doing.... All good names that you understand - you've done the comps - and now the only choice is which is the right one for YOU. One guy buys Exxon - the other guy buys Shell... if all things are fairly equal - you go with the one where you shop and do business with. Because in the end -- you're an OWNER of that company. You bought a piece of it. So if you're going to buy a company - shouldn't you buy the one you like personally? SIMPLE AS THAT.

What that does is gives you a peace of mind... and you're not freaking out over every little hiccup in the stock market.

I just bought Conoco (COP) - an initial smallish amount of shares. I'm a Chevron customer... and I might buy some of them as well.

Now to answer the growth and dividend question. The key metric for me is the TOTAL RETURN... and you can find those numbers for comparison sake. Usually for the last 1-3-and 5 year period.

So let's do a total return FIVE YEAR comp:

Chevron -- 80.9%

Conoco -- 27.3%

Exxon -- 29.7%

++++++++

Whole Foods -- 54.8% --- but the THREE YEAR is 642.1%

Costco -- 61.1%

Walmart -- 44.2%

++++++++

Coke -- 65.4%

Dr Pepper/Snapple -- no 5 year since it's a merger -- but 3 year is 137.6%

++++++++

Yum brands -- 122.4%

McDonalds -- 163.2%



Really - could you have gone very far wrong with ANY OF THESE?? With the exception of the Chevron where you'd be a lot farther ahead -- they would have all been good investments.

I forgot to include Occidental Petroleum!! Five year total return 110.1%


I'll add this information about what the TOTAL RETURN calculation is based on.....


The Total Return is the rate of return representing the price appreciation of a stock with cash dividends reinvested on the pay date for the most recent 1, 3 and 5 fiscal years.

Thanks for checking out my thought process Greg. That's ultimately what I'm trying to learn as well. I'm not in this to get rich quick. I just want to hopefully make sound choices and know why they are sound.

Where can you find the total return numbers at on Google Finance or is it listed elsewhere? I used them for checking the numbers but didn't see a total return listed. I simply got my numbers by clicking on ten year and then looking at the dollar value and percentage in green, hopefully, listed next to the date range.

How important do you think having a history is in your opinion? Take Dr Pepper/Snapple for instance. It's only been around for 3 years but has shown good gains. Would lack of a history be something you'd see as a reason to maybe reconsider a particular stock? I'm guessing this requires more research into maybe how the company is structured and its business model or goals before anything more than a WAG can be given.

Thanks

Total return numbers came from Schwab website. I don't know if you can get to them without having an account.

I think the Google site % is share price gain only but I'm not sure. I do all the research using Schwab website since it's easy and gives me all the info I can use.

I've been writing in a manor that will just get people going and to show thought process and what you're doing is exactly what I've been preaching. Pick some sectors - compare some stocks - then go with what you feel. It's easy for someone else to talk you into buying this or that -- but that's not comfortable when they're going down or sideways. The person that did the research - can go back and reassure themselves why they picked what they did... and they can trust their own instincts.

Will they always be right - hell no - will they always pick the name with the best return - hell no.... but just looking at those stocks above should be enough to show anyone - that there is real power in those stocks... 40 - 50 - 60% returns... are nothing to sneeze at!


I think HISTORY is a great guide - not the only guide - but it's a very good predictor of future behavior. I can't see into the future - but a stocks history of good steady growth and dividend increases etc -- I can't fight that trend. Is it 100% right -- nope.... but it works until someone shows me a better way.

LUCK also plays a large part in investing. So if you're lucky - you can pick a name - and hit 400% returns... or more... but trust me when I tell you that when you're NOT lucky -- it sucks. Money is too hard to come by to watch it go down the drain.

Now -- Dr Pepper and Snapple are hardly new names or brands. The companies have a far longer history than the 3 years since the merger - and obviously they're having some success. But again -- I LIVE off my dividends and bond income - so I tend to pick "for certain" names over something else... but I'm OLD - and RETIRED - and have a big appetite for cash flow... :unibrow: :D I don't like to second guess myself - so if "I" am picking - I'll give up the "perfect chart" and a 1% difference in dividend payout - in order to just be happy and content. So even if Hansen Soda is going gangbusters - I'll buy Coke over it because I think I have some certainty.. So that's just the way I think. Remember too -- that I think differently NOW than I did 20 years ago -- and my personal situation is far far different than the 99%... So just keep that in mind. My thought process is probably more conservative than someone that's trying to hit a double - and has 30 years to go before they retire. But unless they have lady luck on their side -- my "method" is going to kick their ass. :D

That's OK, I don't have the 3 or 4 or 5 million either. :D

Again thanks for creating this thread and generously sharing your knowledge, one of the most valuable threads I've read in years.

Well, I intend on getting a Schwab account since I found their website easy to use. So I'll be sure to look up the info there. To me, and with my expectations, that's a better way to view a stock. After all, growth and payouts(dividend) create value/money which is what I'm trying to do. I'm tired of my money earning 0.crap in a money market account. I really like the way you approach stocks and investing Greg. It's easy and it produces results over the long run. Thank you for taking the time to educate all of us. If we ever meet and I hope we do as I really want to attend some of these events, dinner's on me.

Thanks