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ok, so now that the rock is split open (my skull) and I am making the investment move. The questions are bubbling to the top!!
I am already convinced that I want to purchase stocks, I have a list that I have been watching......HOWEVER, The company I work for offers a 401K to which they match .50 cents on the dollar up to 6% of my salary. How do you say no to that "free money" if one does not believe that mutual funds are the way to invest? :stirthepot: |
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Take the 50% match at minimum to the maximum of the match. Be sure to then select a diversified investment option with the company managing the 401k. For me, Fidelity is the brokerage company that manages my company's 401k. I can't pick individual stocks as an option. So the option I chose was the targeted retirement option. I could have done large cap, small cap, foreign, etc.
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I think my age would favor large cap funds, and small cap funds tend to have higher fees as well as being more volatile. IMHO |
Well I would have to disagree with those that say the 6% match is "FREE" money... because it depends what the investment is in. Pouring money into a POS fund is LOSING money big time... or loss of opportunity. So it's not really free... and in fact could cost you HUGE.
Ordinarily it is a good choice because people that choose it aren't good savers/investors in the first place... and at least this gets them something. And it's taken out of your check PRE tax... which is another good thing.... But don't just take this at face value. Do a bit of work before you make these kinds of choices. You may be able to do FAR better on your own - than the so called "free money". Many times the choices inside these company plans are watered down so that the "fiduciary responsibility" of the management is protected... they're far more interested in you not losing very much as opposed to you making a killing. |
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I have no clue what your age is.... but the younger you are the more risk you should be taking because while something might be more volatile -- that means they're usually also highest growth when things are going great... The Russell 2000 Small Cap index was up about 46% this year... do that once or twice and you have a double real quick. If you've doubled and then you go down 20% from the double - who cares... so it all depends on your age. |
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Truth be told, 55 Quote:
-------------------------------------------------------------- Actually it's = my company kicks in .50 cents for every dollar I invest...up to a max of 6% of my salary. |
I have both Vanguard accounts and Fidelity accounts. I think Fidelity's website is laid out better and easier to navigate. You may want to consider them even if you don't go with the 401k through your company. Keep in mind that a Roth IRA is available to you if you are below the income limit.
I'm not sure if I'm limited on my choices because Fidelity says so if because my employer doesn't have it set up that way. I just know in may case that I have a good number of options inside the 401k to choose from. Hopefully that's the case with your company as well. |
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Well -- like I always say --- sucks to be you! LOL So 10 years to retirement -- then live another 20 plus -- so that's 30 friggin years! Quote:
It's a nice match -- and MOSTLY makes sense to join that pool --- just do a minimum of research to see what you can invest in --- and adjust accordingly. |
reurt
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I'm 7 pages into a 358 page thread. So far it's awesome and I can't wait to read it all! So many pages to go, forums rock my world. A car forum and a thread on investing, but this time it's someone that actually knows what they are doing. Gotta love it! I'm going to need some coffee!
I'm 30 yrs old and have a good head on my shoulders as far as money goes. Sadly my wife and I haven't saved what we'd like to but we have Roth accounts and a business and I have a solid job with Deloitte. Currently I want to invest to save for retirement, save a boat load of money for our second house to buy in 2-3 years and pay off my school loans - went back to school and graduated in 2013 yay! IRA/Roth is good and this thread is very informative and just helps to drill down into the basics. Where I struggle is picking those 'big name big cap stocks that pay you a dividend' and finding the info on the company to answer the questions of what type if dividend, large or small, and to know enough about their business and what it means if the stock cut in half. Do I buy more if it cuts in half? What determines that? Does it count on a retail customer to support their business and drive the stock? I don't trust most people so that's probably a bad idea, or is it? Back to reading and many thanks to you Greg. Sadly since I don't have the buckets and buckets of money that some do, when I get into the mood of investing and saving it makes me want to sell everything and just save save save. '68 Camaro for sale? Haha, noooo! :G-Dub: |
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Well - - first off thank you. Secondly -- you have a good amount of time on your side... so if you get started you'll have a nice retirement. Third -- Yeah - the thread has grown a bit -- but much of it is repeated info - so you'll have to learn to skip when it gets repetitive. Fourth -- It doesn't take much to open a discount brokerage account -- and that's where you'll find a lot of info on what you're missing --- i.e., the dividend etc. But you can also get a lot of that info right on Google Finance -- and I'm sure Yahoo Finance etc. Fifth -- It sounds good to say -- but stock don't ordinarily or regularly get "cut in half". 10% is considered bear market territory... and 20% is huge... and then that's what you'll learn by sticking with the reading of the thread -- you'll be averaging down and buying more shares when the stocks are low as compared to when they're higher priced. Trust me - stick with it - and you'll get a handle on all of how that looks. Sixth -- Again - if you stick with the homework here - a lot of how you choose stocks -- is explained in the thread. It's really basic basic thinking - not rocket science -- and will serve you well especially given your age. You'll learn about total return -- dividend investing - investing in things you can understand and or use or recognize the companies that you do business with. Glad to have you on board! And don't sell the car -- but do share the "expense" with the "investing" side -- and you can do both... |
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Concentrate on maxing both you and your wife's Roths out. Until you get a better understanding of stock selection etc, you can have the money in a targeted retirement account within the Roth IRA. Do you know what the money in your Roth is currently being invested in? Good luck. Glad you're getting something out of this thread too. |
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I'm 55 and committed to investing in 1999. Though I didn't have the wisdom shared in this thread to save me from a few mistakes which when you apply compounding to those losses it would make a substantial (probably $50K) difference to my current portfolio. You might consider opening a Schwab or other account and buy a few shares (10 or so) of a few solid name dividend stocks in different sectors reinvesting dividends just to get your feet wet and give you a feel for the game so to speak. Then watch what happens on a small scale to get you familiar and comfortable with the procedures. Combine the additional 10 years you have on me and the knowledge shared here and you'll be looking good at age 55........if you don't get greedy! :thumbsup: |
Years ago I messed around with some trading and had a Scottrade account. Nothing is in it that account now, also have Fidelity and Vanguard but the Fidelity will be merged over into Vanguard shortly - for independence related work reasons. That being said maybe I'll open one up here, thought I'm not sure of any local - doh! I know there are both Scottrade and Fidelity close ha.
Greg do you pay attention to the P/E much when you're looking for a new stock? Or even though it gives a sign into what the investors are thinking is it the same as 'water cooler' chat at the office, if the P/E is to high you might be to late? Or is P/E more for the day trader type? Oh and my current Roth IRA is in - American Funds The Growth Fund of America A (MUTF:AGTHX) with the following the top 10 holdings (most don't fit the mold of what's talked about in this thread - no dividends!): Security Net Assets Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) 4.13% Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) 4.00% Google, Inc. Class A (GOOG) 3.36% Home Depot, Inc. (HD) 2.36% EOG Resources (EOG) 2.05% UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) 1.61% Philip Morris International, Inc. (PM) 1.53% SOFTBANK Corp (SFTBF) 1.50% Nike, Inc. Class B (NKE) 1.46% Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA) 1.42% WSSix - that's the problem, it doesn't NEED anything! :buttkick: It has suspension and motor and... and.. and.. haha. It just doesn't have everything I WANT done to it. I think what I'll end up doing for now is ditching the leafs, even though aftermarket upgrades, for a 4 link and mini-tub along with a good tune for the motor/carb and call it a day! For now at least. We need/want to build a new house within 3 years that will have a nice workshop/garage so that's #1 on the 'spend money' list! But back on topic!!! I just sold a set of wheels I had sitting around in the garage and currently have one of my guns for sale. Soon as that sells maybe I'll toss it towards some of these stocks that have been talked about here and use some on the mods mentioned above. :popcorn2: |
American Growth (AGTHX) - the mutual fund you mention you have --- has a 5.75% FRONT LOAD --- which is a BS word for "commission". Gawd I hate Mutual Funds... and the horse they rode in on.
And it had a pretty good year this year -- however - it's 10 year average is only just that - average - @ 7.94% It's not a bad fund -- it's just average -- and in a bad year such as 2008 - it was down damn near 40%... but everything was crushed then so it just went along for the ride. RE: P/E -- that's just ONE metric.... and is rather useless IMHO and that's why what's the most important metric you'll hear me beat into everyone around here is TOTAL RETURN -- who cares how it got there and why and what all the other pretty little numbers are ---- the big question is DID I MAKE MONEY ON MY MONEY AND IF SO - HOW MUCH. If you have a 5 year Total Return number that's over 100% --- you doubled your money in 5 years.... That's an important number. |
Where do you see a companies Total Return?
For a 401k/Roth through an employer it seems the only options are mutual funds, pick one, am I wrong? Vanguard is the one I'm in the process of signing up with. Not sure I see another option other than funds/trust/bond. I also use a Fidelity AMEX credit card. Every looked into it? It's nifty, instead of getting points that you can blow on the newest iPad or Skymiles program it places money directly into your Fidelity investment account. The more I spend the more I invest in myself! yay! :lol: |
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I use Schwab and they have a page for it... not sure where your accounts are or where you could see that very important historical information but I'd ask someone wherever you hold accounts -- and or have online availability. |
If you go to www.dividendinvestor.com put in the stock ticker
And read the bottom 3 lines and in will tell you 12 month,3 year and 5 year total return. John |
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Doesn't get much simpler than that! Thank you. |
On mutual funds
I know Greg and others are not big fans of managed funds.. I get why, many are basically ways for the big investment houses to use your $$ to take fees..... however they are not all bad.. their are a few that are really good options for the inactive investor..
How about VFIAX for example... super low expense ratio... and yield and growth pretty damn good.. just throwing it out there its one of my staples and for those with some $$ they want to put in without much risk.. a good fund should be on the option list.. theoretically you could do this yourself.. but with this low of a cost.. why bother... I am pretty deep into this kind of investment.. I am now looking for other options (read looking for income/growth stocks) but i wanted to put this out there for others.. 1 Year 32.33 3 Year 16.14 5 Year 17.94 10 Year 7.39 Since Inception 4.41 11/13/2000 500 Index Fund Adm 32.33% 16.14% 17.94% 7.39% 4.41% |
So here's why this kind of stock/fund/bond recommendation is so difficult.
The fund you mention (VFIAX) has a minimum buy in of $2500 and 500 minimum for adding to that fund. Further --- if it's in a Company managed 401 it might not even be available as an option. That's not to say it's good, bad, or indifferent.... I'm just saying that people will run around looking up someone else's recommendation --- get all set to put that on their list - only to find out that they missed some very critical details..... such as the 2500 minimum basic investment. It can be lower than that if it's inside an IRA then it has a 1000 minimum -- and then 500 subsequent investment. Many "funds" are also "closed end" --- they're CLOSED to outside investors - even though you can find all manor of information about them as if you could actually invest in them. So these things are better left to be used as a good examples ---- versus a "buy this it's great" idea. Yeah - it might be great... but it also just might be completely made out of unobtainium.... LOL I believe this particular fund is closed except to people that are already invested in it. Given that it's "status" is "Available to existing shareholders". |
So let me further explain my "disdain" for Funds.... The above mentioned fund has a "decent" performance. It almost mirrors the S&P500 --- almost exactly --- usually the S&P 500 is what fund managers are looking to "BEAT" --- otherwise they're just considered average and they get looking for work...
All a person has to do -- is to look at the holdings of this fund --- and duplicate it's top ten holdings (if you have that kind of funds to invest)... and you can do so with NO FEES of any kind... no minimums... it's open to anyone at any time - and you can choose to re-invest the dividends or just have them put as cash into your account... in other words -- you can build this same fund --- and have some control over what you want to do and how.... and there's no "expense" associated with it. So then - why just buy a "fund". Here's their top ten holdings.... AAPL Apple Inc Computers & Peripherals XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels GOOG Google, Inc. Class A Internet Software & Services MSFT Microsoft Corporation Software GE General Electric Co Industrial Conglomerates JNJ Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals CVX Chevron Corp Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels PG Procter & Gamble Co Household Products JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co Diversified Financial Services WFC Wells Fargo & Co Commercial Banks So here's my point ---- they probably have 100 plus companies in this fund --- but my guess is that the top ten did all the heavy lifting (performance) and the bottom 20 pull their averages down... so why have the bottom 20 in your portfolio?? Most funds are just giant pools of "average". We strive to be better than average don't we?? So here's another "issue" I have with INVESTING 102 and funds... and that's the research and the details. Now -- I've been doing this a long time --- and I can sort thru lists and details and pick stuff apart in a nanosecond... but I'm not so sure a lot of you can do this and might get fooled by the big numbers and not parse out the larger details. So for example I just did a sort research via Schwab for all the MORNINGSTAR 4 star rated funds.. and then I sorted them by "returns since inception" ----- killer! I should get a list of the very best returns right? So the top one has a 20% "return since inception".... holy cow -- I want in that bad boy -- it's killing it. Well -- but it only started in 2009 --- right when the market turned UP -- and actually - 20% since then is pretty average performance. The "since inception date" is very small --- and how many would have picked up on that? Then --- once you start to have money in 4 or 5 funds ---- what's your overlap?? How many are going to go look at what the fun is made up of. Microsoft can be in a TECH fund -- it can also be in an S&P Large Cap fund -- or a Large cap blend fund... so while you'd think you were "diversified" you may in fact have a bunch of duplication. So for me --- funds are "fine" if that's all you have available to you -- and you just want to be investing thru work.... and you don't want to do a dang thing for yourself. But that's why we have 360 pages of posts here... it's about doing a minimum amount of work (which is actually fun -- it's really more like shopping) and building your own "mini fund". |
And thats why its called "working smarter, not harder..."
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well let me put real time facts to my position on funds. in 10 years I am up 30+ on my funds.. includes deducting for expense fees.. (for which i keep my ratio below .10%)
this is not employee sponsored but post tax cash investment. ANYONE can do this.. the fund I quoted is an Admiral fund the same fund non Adminral VFINX has a 3K minimum investment and a slightly higher fee...all of my funds started at between 100-3K as NON admiral... and i moved them into admiral as they grew. My point is that Funds can and should be part of a smart portfolio. I have another pure stock account were i apply the principles here.. several DRIPS all smart names.. APPL, JNJ, KO, MCD XOM, CVX and so on... over the same period its up 17%. then i have Gamblers... FB... for example which to date are doing real well for me. My point here really is... in my opinion its a portfolio that has the principles of good funds+ individual stocks which are solid DRIPs and shooting star throw aways money looking for a good run.. is the way to go for me.. |
I don't want this to seem like an argument - which it isn't... as usual -- I must respond to EVERYONE that's reading these posts so that they can make sense of them for themselves. They're just merely "food for thought" rather than "YOU SHOULD BE DOING X" or "YOU'RE WRONG". Not my intent here at all.
Having said the above --- You bolstered what I said by posting your "other holdings" --- which closely DUPLICATE the holdings in the fund we were discussing. That's NOT diversification --- thats just duplication. And this is the point I was making about holding MUTUAL FUNDS without doing the underlying research to see what they're made up of. Like most investments -- a few make up for the many. A couple good holdings in a basket of 10 plus -- will pull the wagon as far as "group" performance. If you had Five stocks - Apple being one of them - over the last 5 years - Apple would more than make up for two of the five being losers. The key to investing is to be on top of your investments enough to have fewer losers and have at least one or two winners -- and the middle being stuff that's "average" (generally the steady eddies). But if you're duplicating investments - you're just generally going all in on just a few names. It's akin to buying all your rental property in one neighborhood. That's where "THE WORK" comes in to the equation... people get lazy and don't stay abreast of what all makes up their funds etc... and then find themselves "stuck" five years down the road in investments that have just performed so so. The fund you mentioned sole goal is to duplicate the S&P 500 index. If you want to just do what the S&P 500 index does --- just buy it! It trades as the SPY.... That way you'll be assured that you'll at least equal that index. But there's not much reason to just buy the SPY and then go and duplicate many of what makes up that index - in individual names. Does this make sense?? Quote:
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Discussion is never argument.
Here is why i go the route I do... the 100 other stocks in the fun offer me some risk mitigation , the fund allows me to "Set it and forget it" and never look at it.. The individual stock Drips allow me to trickle in directly thereby managing the total cost whilst providing me the ability to Punch out of the individual stock at any time and buy it back at any time. Its that flexibility and risk limiting factor that for me supports the logic of owning an SP INDEX FUND and some of the same stocks in that INDEX individually Think of this, I am applying both the "Lazy portfolio" Approach and the active trading approach at the same time... taking the benefits of each. :thumbsup: |
I have always said that everyone needs to do what makes THEM feel comfortable and that is style and choices of investments.... I'm never a guy that will say you should only do things my way....
I just wanted readers to understand WHY I was saying what I was saying.... not in a defensive way --- just as an explanation. I had breakfast the other day with a retired accountant buddy - he was a managing partner at KPMG -- his wife is a retired CFO... both should understand investments and money and compounding... They're pretty well healed. Then he tells me his "money managers" have him in about 30% bonds which he tells me has just taken a huge hit... but that now he doesn't want to sell at a loss.... My question to him was why the hell does he think these people are worth what he's paying them? I sold my bonds months ago AHEAD of the impending interest rate rise and made a very handsome gain on them... So much for "professional" money managers. And my buddy should just be embarrassed as hell to even mention that he's not smart enough to manage his own money -- or care enough is really what it boils down to. When I asked him if his money was UP 29 to 30% this year... he could only look down and say "well their strategy has me in pretty safe stuff" --- then I reminded him of his bonds and asked how safe those were?? UGH!! Quote:
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Yes anyone investing that doesn't correlate interest rates and Bonds is pretty far behind the curve.. knowing the rates have nowhere to go but up sitting on Bonds is pretty clear cut bad decision for the foreseeable future .. ....
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Amazing isn't it!! A partner in KPMG (retired) and a CFO... you'd think that money management would not only come easy -- but be massively important. Like I said to him -- gee -- I'm glad I don't have enough money to need a professional manager! <knowing that he knows I have triple his net worth!> Okay - yeah it was a dagger in the back. But hey! What are friends for??? |
I'm not posting this to agree or disagree with anything said above, but in regards to loads and funds...some investment houses have vehicles to get around those.
At Merrill Lynch for example, you can buy into a fund that may or may not have a front load and not pay any of the load as long as you hold it for at least a year. I believe they get around this because Merrill will buy X amount of those shares from the fund and then buy or sell them to their clients after. They probably also get a break on the load from the funds themselves for being such a large player. Now, regarding the types of investment accounts you can have at Merrill. You can be in a non-managed account, without any fees...but you will pay a high commission on equity stock trades. You can buy into most funds inside these accounts though...without paying a load if you hold it for at least a year. I don't remember the last time I paid any sort of commission or load on a mutual fund in my Merrill accounts. Or...you can be in a managed type account where you do pay a fee every quarter based on the value of your total account...get free trades and free buys or sells of mutual funds with no loads. I think the last managed account plan I was in had a 1.5% yearly fee. Your Financial Advisor will completely manage your account for you or you can be very active in the buy\sell decisions in this type of account...your call. Typically in this scenario you don't get a FA that runs you in and out of equities all the time because he doesn't get paid on the trades made, he gets paid more from your account the larger he makes the account grow. If you were going to have your portfolio totally self directed, Greg's example of a discount investment account at Schwab and buying the equities directly that most funds hold large stakes in is the most efficient way to do this...but you have to remember to be in total control of all of the buy\sell decisions and stay on top of it. It isn't a set it and forget vehicle. If you wanted to let the money managers do what they do and participate in funds instead, an investment account at a larger house can be efficient in this manner if you can get around the loads as described above and not pay fees on the value of the account. Keep in mind though that the money managers running the funds do need to get paid and this happens from the expenses that come right off the top of the funds before any gains or losses trickle down to the fund holders. Some funds are better about this than others, research is again key. I have had the opportunity in the last 7-8 years to watch some very high end Financial Advisors...and the different strategies they take. One in particular that is becoming somewhat of a regular appearer on WSJ, Fox Business News etc. It is amazing to me that he isn't much of a stock picker at all. About 90% of his portfolios are built around index funds. He tax harvests regularly, re-adjusts portfolios based on asset class, and buys and holds while reinvesting dividends much like what is talked about here...but all in pretty much Index ETF types of funds. It is interesting to watch and he has done very well over the years, even after the 2% a year he charges his clients. |
Let's be very clear here ---- Nobody is going to be on a fee managed account anywhere, without having a rather substantial amount of money to plunk into an account. They're not offering fee based accounts to people with 5 grand to invest...
I know this because I have fee based accounts with at least TWO different large institutional investment firms. One is a hedge fund - we won't even get in to that kind of investing here. Here is something you may want to read... If you have $10,000, you can open an account at, say, Morgan Stanley, a prototypical full-service brokerage. You’ll work with a broker, who, for a fee of up to 2% of assets annually, will provide guidance on mutual fund investments. But to get more-comprehensive advice at Morgan Stanley—from an adviser who offers a range of services, from investing guidance to retirement and estate planning to banking services—you need at least $100,000. Fees are negotiable and may include commissions on investments, asset-based advisory charges or both. At Merrill Lynch, you’d need at least $250,000 to access that level of service. Now --- I have a rather large "estate" and have professionals on many different levels from trust accounts on up. I can tell you that most of these "pros" are 30 something folks that are mostly wet behind the ears, they're all "VP's" and when you drill down on them -- they don't know very much except that they can read the "reports" from the analysts in their respective firm. What I LOVE TO DO is to have one of my "team" call and give me some sage advice. I usually then hang up the phone and call my other firm and say --- hey! I was thinking about doing "X" (using the information I just received from broker A)... most of the time - brokerage B has a completely different and opposing view. I have my own view - which is generally not to take either ones advice and do something (If I choose to do anything) in the middle... Broker B was insistent that I continue to hold the 4 million laddered bond portfolio they had built for me (fee managed @ .75% at that level) I owned stocks in this account as well. Thank gawd I knew more than they did and sold the entire portfolio and then closed that account. It saved me at least a half a million bucks, perhaps MORE than that if you figure in the gain I took that I would have otherwise lost and add it to the loss of holding til today. They were FIRED. He was a Senior VP and personal friend. In fact - I wouldn't even let them sell the bonds - I just transferred them lock stock and barrel over to another account and sold them via Schwab (I have 4 accounts just as schwab). The key to paying FEES of any kind is whether or not you are willing to abdicate decision making to someone else. Because they really are just "selling" their advice. Supposedly educated advice - and they have all manor of people doing lots and lots of analysis. But what you're really looking for then -- is that they can do a better job than you can. I'm good with that! Nothing wrong with that -- but then I demand all manor of other services and features and entrance to investment vehicles for my fee. I get away with that because they'll kiss my butt to infinity if that's what I ask for.... I get free tickets to all kinds of stuff - golf events - pro sports - fancy dinners - and entry to things I otherwise would have no access to at all. For instance -- I just borrowed 5 million dollars -- at 2%. CASH. I can do anything I want with it - no questions asked. How many of you can do that?? That's worth a management fee to me. But if you're investing 10 grand a year -- and have under 100K invested -- and are expecting to make an 5% ANNUAL dividend -- and the "market" is on average growing 9% per year -- then paying someone 2% looks mighty expensive to me... And that 2% is whether you have an up year or a down year. Let me tell ya -- when you're down 15% and then pay 2% (Cash mind you!) for them to "manage" your account -- you're not going to be a happy camper. What most people do is pay a fee based firm TO BEAT the average market... Do you understand that "beating the market" also means that if the market is DOWN 12% and they are ONLY down 10% this means they "beat the market"! You also pay a fee for the access to info - and to basically NOT have to do much thinking. The minute you let someone else run things -- your interest drops just about to zero. The next time you have any interest is when you get a statement that shows you LOST MONEY.... and all of a sudden you get REAL INTERESTED. But by then - it's too late - and they always have a reason. My point is and always will be on this issue ---- That it isn't that hard to do most of this ---- and the thread was about learning how to do it on your own because it isn't hard to figure out. If it's not worth your time -- then when your "broker" calls and advises you -- how would you know if he's right or wrong -- or even if you should say yeah "go ahead" or "no - let me look into that"? Just sayin'. |
Let me share some investment "advice" (sales pitch is a better description) from one of my brokerages I just received today as a matter of fact. And YES I actually read all the crap they send me. I like this stuff -- I have lots of time -- I'm actually pretty damn good at it too!
Listen to this drivel.... from a FEE BASED FIRM.... Focus List Focus List Addition: Follow-on Report • On December 17, we added Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) to the Focus List with a Buy rating and $48 price target. Teva is based in Israel and is the world’s largest generic drug manufacturer. Consensus earnings estimates are $4.66 for 2014 and $4.64 in 2015. Our price target is based on 12x a worst-case earnings estimate of $4.00 per share for 2015. • Teva is dealing with drug patent expirations, revenue concentration, an abrupt CEO resignation, Israeli tax issues, and a questionable growth trajectory.We believe current levels offer an attractive entry point for patient, contrarian investors.We believe Teva’s problems are well understood and that the stock should outperform once we pass the generitization of Copaxone―Teva’s largest drug at 60% of operating profits. Our $4.00 worst-case 2015 EPS estimate assumes a 60% loss of the Copaxone franchise while taking into account Teva’s ability to cut costs and restructure. • Jeremy Levin recently resigned as CEO, due to what we believe was a board-level fight over his strategic plan. We feel that Chairman of the Board Philip Frost has been the de facto head of the company for some time and provides continuity. Mr. Frost is one of Teva’s top shareholders, and we feel his interests are aligned with those of other shareholders. • The Copaxone patent expiration is a serious challenge for Teva and a risk to Street estimates. We believe that the bear case has been priced into the stock, and realistic worst-case earnings will be closer to $4.00 and any pullback in the stock will be short-lived. The extent of the threat to the Copaxone franchise should become clearer in May 2014, and clarity should alleviate pressure on valuation. We believe investors have already assumed the bear-case and we recommend positions be built as the company takes steps to reduce costs and reposition itself for future growth. • Investment risks include revenue loss due to patent expirations, failure to get FDA approvals for new drugs, and other regulatory, operational and financial risks resulting from the global nature of Teva’s business. Share price at time research report was published: $40.26 (1/02/2014 closing price); Share price at time Week in Review was published: $39.88 (1/03/2014 closing price) So here's what I got out of reading this: They are GUESSING that maybe the price will grow to a particular number... big whoop. I hope ALL of my stocks GROW -- if I didn't think they would -- I wouldn't have bought them!! This is a drug company -- they a have SINGLE product which they are relying on for 60% of their sales!!! Which is about to EXPIRE. TEVA is a CONTRARIAN investment -- that means that everyone else is WRONG and you're eventually going to be right -- because CONTRARIAN means you're betting against the grain! BETTING ='s GAMBLING. I'm betting everyone else is WRONG -- I'm going to buy low because nobody else wants the stuff --- and I'm hoping they're wrong and I'm right, and I'm going to be a winner. Ya know what? I think the same way when I'm buying a lottery ticket ---- the other 15 million people buying are suckers and my $2 ticket is the winner. So far - I haven't won. CRAP. Oh well.... maybe next time. That last paragraph is legal mumbo jumbo telling you that when you follow the advice of this broker -- he might just be wrong -- BUT HEY! He told you it was risky so hold on to your hat sucker! THIS IS THE KIND OF BULL CRAP YOU GET FOR YOUR 2% FEE..... I read it and toss 99% of it in the trash. |
Now -- here's another absolute NO NO -- don't let me catch ANY OF YOU investing ANYTHING with one of these INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISORS!!
So help me gawd -- I'll find out and I'll track you down and feed you thru your carburetor!! LOL Seriously -- this butthole -- is doing 10 years in the Federal Correction facility in Sheridan Oregon... he WAS a big time car collector. He bought one of my '67 Corvettes... the one I frequently post photos of (because I actually had digital pics of it!).... and he had at least 40 or 50 cars! When I would talk to him at our NCRS meetings -- I KNEW the guy was a phony!!! I told everyone I knew that he was a phony! You know what? People accused me of being "jealous" because he had more cars than I had - and probably more money too! Okay ---- some of these aholes invested with the guy... I'm good with that -- they lost and I'm still on the right side of a prison wall. http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/...31/story4.html |
no....really? just sayin? :waveflag:
The fact that you aren't doing this as a hobby, or something that you are just "trying it to see what happens, and I'll let you know"...... and have really been at this for a long time, sure merits listening to what you have to say. You care enough to share your real life experience and give folks the chance to glean the pearls of wisdom and hopefully apply them to their own situation I hope the folks new to this thread keep that in mind :thumbsup: Quote:
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