Solid LT1 ---- Just to be sure.... My "sounds cocky" statement is not meant to be directed to you personally. It's a blanket statement. I re-read my post and thought -- hmmmmmm..... that sounds like I'm being mean to him and that's not my intention at all.

Pretty interesting exercise I'm looking at now. I set up a google finance portfolio based on most of the stocks I've seen mentioned in this thread over the years so I could watch them for a while and get a feel for things as I venture back into this arena.

Given what has transpired the past few weeks, I'm looking at the portfolio now on the "fundamentals" tab, and what is most interesting to me is the current share price column, beside the 52 week high, and the 52 week low. This gives me a pretty good idea of how these stock's share price has reacted to the market conditions of the past year.

Granted, it doesn't take into consideration dividend payouts and I understand that, but this gives me a better roadmap of things I might be comfortable with to take and then go look at the dividend history of those same stocks.

The large majority of them are almost right in the middle of the 52 week highs and 52 week lows, there are some that are still hanging in pretty good though...and there are a few nearer to the 52 week low marks. It also gives a pretty good idea of how large of swings the particular stock may be more apt to go through which is a consideration for those that may not be willing to stomach the larger of the high and low swings of the market.

One that jumps out to me that I can't explain yet, CVX is right near it's 52 week low while PSX is not far off of it's 52 week high...

In the grand scheme, Chevron hasn't moved a whole lot while Phillips has moved further...yet Phillips is hanging in better right now.

With almost zero research, one has to wonder if one of them isn't more involved with propane and what's going on with that market right now than the other...

Anyway, I have to go make some money at my day job right now. Good luck everyone!

Lance ---- There's a term for this! It's called "Paralysis by Analysis".


LOL




Here's how I do it. I owned 12,000 KMP --- I had 3MM in cash --- I noticed that KMP was going ex dividend. It pays 1.36 a quarter. So I bought 10,000 more shares.


All of that took 30 seconds of thought. LOL


I'll pick up the dividend.... wait for the shares to be "positive" - even by a nickel... and I'll sell 5,000.... wait a little longer and sell another 5,000. In the meantime if they sit "lower" -- I'll just hold - because in another 90 days I'll get another 1.36 a share.

I've said this in previous posts... i.e., that there is no "new" money. There is a finite amount of money invested... and it just moves around always searching for Return on Investment.


Here's a statement that came out of todays FED regarding their QE (Quantative Easing) purchases going forward... That they intend to only buy 65 Billion next month rather than the 75 to 85 billion they have been buying...


The Fed’s pullback is contributing to a global shift in investments as people who chased higher returns in foreign markets look forward to the return of higher interest rates in the United States.

My Dad refers to it as Mental Masturbation...


:D

I have a few shares of AT&T (T)... namely 30,000 shares of it... So it's a stock that while I consider it in that "steady eddy" bandwidth... because I don't expect them to suddenly spurt up --- I also don't think they'll drop much either. They pay a solid dividend... that's above 5% and that cushions downside risk.

I do however always keep up with "trends" -- and this is not only fun - but increases my awareness of what and why I'm invested in something. It takes some time - but I love it so no biggie.

I find this article about Apple - and about the cell phone industry which T is a member of very "interesting". As consumers - sometimes we just don't SEE what's happening competitively in an industry. But this article - while about Apple - sheds some really good light on cell phones in general. And particularly about how they're sold etc. What's good for one company might just affect another one negatively or vice versa. In this case -- NOT subsidizing cell phones might hurt Apple - but in the long run might be good for AT&T and Verizon (VZ) etc. Or it might be revenue neutral. Who knows.

I just thought it interesting.




http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...idies-att.aspx

Today brings up a good day to talk about stocks that I avoid -- and why.


I avoid stocks that are "priced for perfection"... I've posted about this several times. Stocks that might be fantastic companies -- but they are so loved that everyone wants to be in them - which drives the share prices to levels that are
only sustainable IF * always the big IF * they can maintain spectacular growth. One teeny tiny hiccup -- and BAM! You get slammed.

Examples lately.... Apple.... slammed down $40

Amazon --- BAM! Down $30 today


These are both GREAT companies.... but their share prices have been way out in front with huge expectations of continued greatness.


I avoid LOW END retailers....(Wal Mart etc) actually I avoid anything that's main business is LOW END. Why?

Because the poor folks that shop there are just that -- poor... and they have the least amount of cushion in their budgets to absorb any offsetting cash flow disruption. Such as - a cut in hours worked - higher gasoline prices - higher heating bills etc. It just seems to take less and less "disruption" to have people slam their wallets shut - which of course - affects the sales and profit margins at these type of companies.


I like companies that pay above average dividends and whose customer base is broad based -- and companies that people MUST buy from.

When you see a down market --- you'll see that the companies that pay above average dividends will fare better. Why? Because as the share price decreases -- the dividend paid percentage increases - making them attractive relative to other income assets. It doesn't help your cost basis... if you bought at $35 and the dividend is 5% --- you're still only going to get your 5%... and you'd have a temporary paper capital loss on the books.... but your shares will most likely have gone down LESS than the market in general. So the dividend cushions on the downside... and regardless of what the current share price is - they're still sending you a check.

So I have my 10 stocks and I'm getting ready to make my next purchase in a down market. Would you invest in one of your current stocks at a lower price than your initial purchase or buy a new company? My thought was to invest in a current holding. I believe you call that cost averaging? The next question is, would it be one of the best performers or worst?

Good questions Todd!


So === I personally average in all the time. I added 5,000 shares of Altria (MO) on their "earnings miss". That buy in isn't enough to really bring my average cost down much (I already had 25,000 shares) -- but it makes me FEEL GOOD to buy it down a bit.

Two thoughts on your question of adding to biggest loser -- or best performer...

Examine WHY your loser is a loser.... this is critical to not try to "catch a falling knife" --- so WHY it's down is very important. If it's just down because of general market dipping --- or is there something fundamentally going on you need to be aware of.

Don't fear chasing market performance or growth. There's not a thing wrong with buying a stock or adding to shares when they're up a little. The shares are doing exactly what you wanted them to do - so why would that put you off? That's a rhetorical question.

If you feel you're diversified.... then adding to existing holdings rather than adding a new name can make you more comfortable in a down market... but sometimes if you're still trying to diversify - then the market has created a good opening for you to "get in".

I'd buy when the YEAR TO DATE price is in the 7 or 8% down... Remember that 2013 was far more than just an exceptional market... unlikely to be repeated. So 7 or 8% off "the highs" is a good starting point.

Remember that what is your worst performer this month - can be a good performer by year end. That's where patience comes in to play.

Here's another thing I think about whether it's buying or selling.


Make a list of what you want to do -- a PLAN -- Put down important things like your average cost -- what the "EX" date is for the next dividend... Making sure you put a "MUST BUY" or MUST SELL before whatever dates you plan to use. There's no rush generally to buy or sell.... so if you have a plan in place that you can look at to keep you on track it will help.

Why sell a stock 5 days before you were to get a dividend of .40 a share?

Why not try to buy a stock either just before it's EX date - or After it trades EX and either pick up the dividend -- or buy it on the dividend "dip" effectively collecting the dividend via the discount.

Check for their EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS.... I'd never buy a stock like Amazon just before their earnings announcements. You can get crushed overnight... so be patient and wait to find out what they're saying about going forward (the most important part of earnings!). If it jumps up so what - things are fine and earnings are good and they say the future looks bright. Better than than buying in and they miss earnings and say going forward sucks and you get killed 15% in one day.

Okay -- I'm a post whore.... but I love this stuff -- and a mixed market - or down market gives me new stuff to talk about. Last year became difficult to find anything new to discuss because the market just went up day after day.


This morning - if you'd have looked at your accounts - you'd have had a frown on your face... EVERYTHING was red. While waiting on Adrienne (my daughter) to make breakfast... I noticed that the market was down 188 points or so -- yet I had 4 stocks green.... and frankly - the stocks that I own weren't down very much... I like that - and my theory that dividend paying big names hold up better in selloffs has always been true - and it's showing that in my accounts.

Within a hour or so --- I note the DOW is down 122 points -- but every single stock I own is GREEN...


I thought back to 1997 or so and remembered how I would have reacted to the big down red day --- I'd have SOLD everything losses be damned! Only to turn around and pay higher prices for the same shares a day later when they went green. What a fool's play that was. Now -- I look - shrug my shoulders - look to see if there's something I should be BUYING....

I think Walmart is getting torched by dollar stores.

Interesting info and I always like your common sense, fundamental approach. This quote fits nicely, "Success is a refined study of the obvious".

I'm certainly not saying this was obvious to me but it's not some mystical game either. I'll take your advice, do my research, and place my bets.

I go into Whole Foods for lunch quite often and I run into a gentleman in his mid eighties. Many times, we discuss life and philosophy. Today we got off on stocks. I discussed with him your common sense approach and he agreed that it was a winning approach for growth. He then admitted that he had been burned a majority of his life chasing the get rich quick stocks. It was clear that he had some serious resentment. I'd say that if he could rewind the tapes 30 years, he'd be the turtle, not the hare.

Investing really is "obvious". I think deep down everyone knows what they should be doing. Doing it - is the part where most people fail.

Numbers don't lie. There's hundreds of websites that will tell you how much you need to retire with. Plug in age - savings amount - how long you expect to live and how much annual income you'd "LIKE TO" retire on. The amount you need is usually staggering. I think what happens is that nobody can actually see themselves ever getting that much money. So they just ignore the advice and keep on buying useless crap they don't really need at the peril of their own retirement in the future.

Let's face it - lots of people get lucky and pick up a nice chunk of change when their parents pass on. Their parents were smart enough to have a paid of house and some savings... Parents were luckier than we are - because many worked at jobs with pensions and great healthcare benefits. Most of us get NOTHING...

Investing can be a bumpy and discouraging road. Fears - greed - wanting only success and never being let down... Freaking out at the first investing disaster. Never learning about WHY they had a disaster.

Let's face it -- even if a guy buys a rental house - and he gets a good tenant that pays like clockwork. The next tenant can move in the middle of the night and cause lots of damage to the property. Suddenly there's 10 grand in carpet - paint - doors fixed - and appliances to replace. It sucks - but in the long term that's just a hiccup. 25 years go by and the house is paid for and becomes a cash cow. The 10 grand fix up becomes a tiny dip in the road.

ALL INVESTING has it's ups and downs. But if people just invest - understand that ups come with downs - and that the down part is just that - a part - in the end they'll become winners.

Investing has to be a holistic approach. At some point people need or want to quit working. In order to do that you have to have some income producing investments - but you also need to have the expenses in line. It's not rocket science to know that in order to spend 5 grand a month - you need to have at least 5 grand a month in income. Cut that expense to 3 grand - and bingo - you need less income. So "SAVING" and INVESTING... can and should be paying off the mortgage BEFORE your retirement - that might take making extra payments.... and you've got to put "X" amount away every month in income producing (compounding) investments to make your money grow.

Funny -- a friends father just passed away. The father had a condo here in Sun Valley... the friend figured it's paid for and they just got a nice freebie.... Well -- it wasn't paid for - in fact it's worth less than the mortgage. Now the friend is saddled with the house payment as well as the condo fee etc. Brings up my favorite saying: Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans...

My hunch is that the last few generations of Americans with kids born in the late 80's forward who've been living the dream leveraged well beyond their means will put the self-titled Money Managers/Trust Fund Babies of today near extinction or a rare commodity compared to those born in the 50's and 60's.

That's why setting goals with a real game plan is so crucial. Most don't set written goals, let alone with a real plan of action. In this case, long term financial goals. "I want to be rich" How? What books are you going to read, what voice of value are you going to use to form your philosophy, what vehicles are you going to use?

It doesn't have to be real taxing either. Once you set a goal and put the game plan together, get a majority of it on auto pilot.

For instance:
My IRA & Life Insurance deposits are auto withdrawn.
The money I invest monthly into stocks is automatically transferred into Scottrade on the 15th. I just need to do some research and trade.
My rental mortgage payments are on auto withdrawal with the additional principal paid to pay them off in 15 years.
My primary residence payment is on auto withdrawal with additional principal to pay it off in just over 15.

I have a spreadsheet that breaks my budget down to replacing cars, clothes, and on down the line and includes net worth. I know approximately how much my net worth gains EVERY MONTH. Clearly, the additional funds have to be available to invest aggressively enough to achieve financial independence. That means you must live well below your income. If you don't, get into a more economical situation, pay off debts, or work harder. Even if you are living below your means, if you wish to achieve your goals faster, that may mean a move down in financial lifestyle. It's not going to take care of itself.

The key is to break it down. If you need $2,000,000 to retire, that seems like a daunting number. When you break it down to a monthly budget, it seems more manageable.

"Invest your money and spend what's left"

A written plan and sticking to it. Once people see that they're on their way to actually doing something --- they'll get better and better at it.


Here's my question to anyone. If you can't live on what you're making NOW.... how do you suppose your life will be when you're not working at all? So that law of "averages" comes back into play. Better to have a nice long AVERAGE lifestyle all the way until you die - than to live like a baller now and a pauper later.

The key is to get started EARLY so the compounding can start to take affect.

I'm going to do a Greg Weld here..... ha

When I laid my game plan, the first order of business was to manage my income to it potential. I looked at my debts and began to eliminate the excess or eliminate the bill depending on the circumstance. Between paying off a car, eliminating some bills, and buying two income producing properties, I was able to change my balance sheet by over $20,000 a year in the black. With the new discretionary income, it enabled me to invest in my game plan. Let's say I invest only half of my additional discretionary income in the market for 30 years:

$10,000 initially
$833.33 a month
10% Interest
After 30 years: Over $2,000,000! Look at that compound interest kick butt after 20 years.
http://i200.photobucket.com/albums/a...psa87fce42.jpg

EEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Now that's a f'n' plan!!




The compounding is why I always say -- START EARLY -- because it's the later years when all the magic happens!


It's the complete opposite of a mortgage where you pay all the interest at the beginning and the principal get's paid off last..... Compounding for investing purposes is principal first -- and then comes the interest income later which is exactly when you need it!


Someone just saving $500 a month can be a millionaire when they retire.

Often times you hear me say ---- is there a fundamental change in the business...




This is the kind of FUNDAMENTAL changes we're looking out for... something that is going to affect your shares long term. Shopping habits are fundamental changes... Remember that you're not only looking for the "bad"... you're also trying to look ahead and see what might benefit.



http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...abits/5085679/



Sorry -- after I hit post -- I thought of something else. Try to see ahead and WHO might benefit from the changes. I see something here that says "pay attention".... If on line shopping is going to continue on an upswing --- do I need to pick the company that will do the selling? Maybe if ALL on line shopping is growing -- maybe the shippers might be the general beneficiaries -- so think UPS and FED EX..... Think about fundamentals and all the surrounding beneficiaries.

IF we are going to continue to find oil here at home.... We'll need pipes or transportation to get it from the fields to the refiner. I'm not saying I'm investing in that (already own KMP).... I'm just saying to be aware of the broader picture. So here's another broad picture.... if homes are selling -- do you look at the home builders or do you look at the people providing the financing? Again - just "how to think".

Is there a great site that post dividend payouts of stocks.

http://dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

Right there in the middle is the US Dividend Champions. Fun list to read through.

Cool. Thanks. Interesting.

IMHO -- The market is working just as it should... The USA is NOT ready for higher interest rates... they will kill housing - they will kill autos - and the new taxes that the current Obamanites voted in (Obamacare) will suck too much money out of the economy.

Rates needed to just hold steady - and they need to hold steady for a year plus from now.

Here's the good news -- if you're in DIVIDEND paying stocks - and you're in great names -- then you're going to get paid every quarter regardless of what the market is doing "today" or "this week".


It's snowing hard in Sun Valley... think I'll go skiing. My checks keep coming...

So, guess who just opened up a Merrill Edge IRA account and Roth IRA account and funded them... :D

Merrill Edge is the discount arm of Merrill Lynch and have everything available to them that is available through ML...only the accounts are completely self directed with $6.95 trades.

10 minutes total to get them opened up and funded...now just have to do some final homework and devise my plan...

Good job!

WE are going to see an increasing sell off -- because this market has more LEVERAGE and Margin accounts (they're at historically high levels) and there will be margin calls.... When that happens - the selloff become steep and swift.

We need it - and it should happen.

It busts me up that the TV talking heads can toss out the big numbers and are all about "wow -- 300 point selloff".... do the math -- that's a whopping 1.9ish %... We need a 500 point down day. That will take out a lot of the margin accounts - which would be a good thing. If you're stupid enough to be buying stocks on margin - then I'm happy to see you getting killed in the market.

I like to see a sell off at the close of the market.... that means people have gotten margin calls and they can't come in with new money to cover by the end of the trading day -- and the brokerages take over and just sell indiscriminately.

We need this to take place.

Not tomorrow --- wait.... we have more downside to go. Don't be in a big hurry here.

I feel like the "old man" here... trying to use my experience to herd cats...


I'd love to see a show of hands of how many felt "fear" yesterday with a measly down 300 day... vs how many saw a buying opportunity... vs how many said "ho hum" this is just the way the market works - pay no attention to it.

I bought a couple new positions in a different account yesterday. I'm not even going to say what they were because it doesn't really matter. What does matter is that I only bought part of a position. I nibbled. I expect to get another opportunity to add to my position and I actually hope to be able to average them down not up.

We need MORE earnings reports to see how the economy is going. I think it's going "okay" but I also feel it's still rather fragile. Just "okay" isn't where we need to be - we need to really get the engine humming again. It's so much more fun when things are smoking along at a good clip. STABLE is what I'd like to see -- not on top of the fence trying to balance.

Interesting by the way -- was the talking heads discussing FUNDAMENTAL changes in eating habits ---- regarding the big earnings beat by Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) vs the earnings "miss" by McDonalds (MCD). Is there a shift in eating by the younger generation -- to healthier "real foods"? It's something to pay attention to...

And here's another reason why DIVIDENDS actually COUNT! It's REAL MONEY!

While the market was dropping yesterday (and might again)... you're still getting paid to own this stuff! Gotta love that!

Wouldn't you love to build a PT car -- and at the same time have that car paying you while you enjoy it - drive it - wash it... all the time it's sending you a check? LOL




02/03/2014 Qualified Dividend T
A T & T INC NEW
$13,800.00

It was an interesting feeling for me yesterday... When I was fully invested before, days like yesterday and the past week would have ate at me... Was pretty difficult for me to turn the PC off and go skiing. I'd be downloading my quotes into Quicken 3 or 4 times a day looking for the daily losses or gains total.

Yesterday though, I couldn't wait to get my new accounts set up and get them funded. I also spent quite a bit of time researching and formulating a plan.

Remains to be seen how I'll react to up or down days once I'm back in in one form or another though. That is actually a large part of how I'm trying to set this up...how to basically try to set it and forget it so that I don't dwell on the ups and downs.

Read this morning that we are basically at a 7% dip...not quite a 10% correction...yet.

Yeah --- It's also one thing to be on the sidelines and not actually have real money (skin) in the game. But that is an interesting observation on your part.

I expect more volatility going forward... We're just not going to have a market like 2013... that was like shooting fish in a barrel.

The reason (and remember that this is Investing 102) that I continue to urge folks to invest in the very best names --- and ones that pay dividends --- is because for the most part the dividend payers are buffered somewhat. And you can go to sleep knowing they're not going out of business... and when you see (read my post above showing my AT&T (T) dividends coming quarter after quarter it really helps to stay in the market.

I'd be freaked out if I was invested in pure growth stocks... and nothing else.

The past week or to for me has just been a "aw, its bout time" sorta thing. I have no new cash to put to work right now, as I just finished my emergency fund. This year its back to investing for retirement (last year was purchase a house and rebuild emergency fund, but i already had my div stocks from an early 2013 ROTH purchase). So i got to watch my purchases and my Feb 2013 restructure of my 401k "ride the wave".

I feel tho, its just "part of the market". If i had money to put to work, i'd be looking at it a little different. But for now, i'm just holding tight.

On a side note, I keep a spreadsheet that automatically calculates the current +/- of my stocks, PLUS a separate column that automatically tracks my TOTAL RETURN. Thus, when I see stock XYZ down 3% today, I look a column over and see I'm still up 35% total return. So then its just a "sweet, maybe my next div check for that stock will purchase a few cents worth of more shares than last time." lol

I waited for a pullback for almost 3 months and just watched the train get farther and farther out of site without me on it. I finally got on board and of course had I waited maybe 2 more weeks would be in better shape. I am not scared of going down just wish I started from a lower platform to fall from. LOL
I did sell one of my 3 growth stocks FB today and bought something else I want to hold long term. I was up 19% on my FB and never intended to keep it long term so I let it go.

That's EXACTLY what happens.... the longer you wait -- the market goes against you... the minute you buy -- the little man on Wall Street yells "TAKE 'ER DOWN"!!! Happens every time... I don't care who you are or how much you've invested.

The KEY is ---- to go back 10 years -- 15 years --- 5 years --- and see that the charts are GENERALLY lower on the left and higher on the right ---- and that's what you need to "invest" in. This week - next month -- tomorrow.... is just a blip in time. It's like buying a house.... you MUST believe that down the road it will be worth more regardless of what it sold for last time or next week.

At least Stocks are LIQUID if you need the dough.... good luck getting any dough out of your house if you need it next Monday! LOL

Not mine (so far...) just working with my 401K rollover IRA

True.

Tell me if you see any holes in my theory here please...

What I did first was pick out 30 dividend paying stocks based on what I've read here and a few other places, I then built a model portfolio by taking 10% of the total amount I want to invest and buying however many shares I could of each of the 30 stocks. I then took the last 12 months of dividend payments for each individual stock, multiplied it by the number of shares I purchased thereby simulating what my dividend income would have been off of each stock had I owned it the past 12 months.

I then took the 10 highest performers to model my portfolio after...

I know it's looking back instead of looking forward, but it was an interesting calculation and I now have a much better idea of what I can expect from each stock and the total portfolio.

What I plan to do is to buy 25% of the total number of shares of each of the 10 stocks...every 2-3 weeks until I've got them all.