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XLexusTech 02-28-2014 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 539401)
I don't have any insight into peer to peer lending, but I do have a good friend that has dabbled in high risk loans for a long time.

He is now also a Bed and Breakfast operator in Colorado...and not by choice either. :D

Yeah that was my 20s bit to old for that now :secret:

GregWeld 02-28-2014 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 539401)
I don't have any insight into peer to peer lending, but I do have a good friend that has dabbled in high risk loans for a long time.

He is now also a Bed and Breakfast operator in Colorado...and not by choice either. :D



My next door neighbor managed to hoover thru 250 MILLION dollars doing "mezzanine" loans to builders and developers that all went bust in the housing downturn. He lost his entire families fortune -- to the point that they repossessed his Mother in Laws car and his kids houses... and chained his 69' yacht to the dock.

My response to his face when I saw him after the news broke.... "dumb-ass everyone knows you don't put all your eggs in one basket".

But... you know... the "returns" were so good! When you accept high returns - you accept high risk. It's all a whole lot of fun -- right up until you loose your family fortune.

The loss turned out to be larger than originally anticipated....

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/s....html?page=all



A later article.... either way -- all amazing -- and even more amazing to me -- is to blame someone else because you were a stupid ass.... LOL



http://www.seattlepi.com/local/sound...in-2140363.php

GregWeld 02-28-2014 04:39 PM

Just to be clear --- I understand the OP question about Peer to Peer lending -- and Micro loans and all of that... I just thought it was a fun place to insert some information about lending... and it's perils. I'm a lender in a couple of instances and they've worked out well for all so far. Just make sure to keep it very very small.

XLexusTech 02-28-2014 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539407)
Just to be clear --- I understand the OP question about Peer to Peer lending -- and Micro loans and all of that... I just thought it was a fun place to insert some information about lending... and it's perils. I'm a lender in a couple of instances and they've worked out well for all so far. Just make sure to keep it very very small.

Yep that's the nature of the query .. Read through the article and it's not at all like peer to peer lending.

GregWeld 02-28-2014 09:56 PM

When I lend money --- I'm taking collateral. A title or secured creditor. First in line with hard assets. Otherwise I can just buy some more MO or T -- and collect a dividend.

While I like to help out -- I'm in it to make my money make money.

The problem with "lending" is that it's not liquid. I like / prefer liquidity. I want a premium return for giving up liquidity (think LLC apartment investing - where returns are 7% or so plus the upside).


Peer to Peer (P2P) lending typically is unsecured...

XLexusTech 03-01-2014 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539448)
When I lend money --- I'm taking collateral. A title or secured creditor. First in line with hard assets. Otherwise I can just buy some more MO or T -- and collect a dividend.

While I like to help out -- I'm in it to make my money make money.

The problem with "lending" is that it's not liquid. I like / prefer liquidity. I want a premium return for giving up liquidity (think LLC apartment investing - where returns are 7% or so plus the upside).


Peer to Peer (P2P) lending typically is unsecured...

Ok no disrespect but I believe your making a lot of assumptions. For example although your notes may have 36 month durations they are both callable and can be sold at anytime .. Since what your doing here is taking fractional percentages of thousands of loans it not as locked in as one might think. In fact that's one of the things I want advice on, assuming existing accounts which have solid history from someone oh wants to cash out

GregWeld 03-01-2014 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XLexusTech (Post 539470)
Ok no disrespect but I believe your making a lot of assumptions. For example although your notes may have 36 month durations they are both callable and can be sold at anytime .. Since what your doing here is taking fractional percentages of thousands of loans it not as locked in as one might think. In fact that's one of the things I want advice on, assuming existing accounts which have solid history from someone oh wants to cash out





Ah ha... so you're not making a direct P2P loan. A third party is bundling.

SSLance 03-01-2014 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539405)
My next door neighbor managed to hoover thru 250 MILLION dollars doing "mezzanine" loans to builders and developers that all went bust in the housing downturn. He lost his entire families fortune -- to the point that they repossessed his Mother in Laws car and his kids houses... and chained his 69' yacht to the dock.

My response to his face when I saw him after the news broke.... "dumb-ass everyone knows you don't put all your eggs in one basket".

But... you know... the "returns" were so good! When you accept high returns - you accept high risk. It's all a whole lot of fun -- right up until you loose your family fortune.

The loss turned out to be larger than originally anticipated....

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/s....html?page=all



A later article.... either way -- all amazing -- and even more amazing to me -- is to blame someone else because you were a stupid ass.... LOL



http://www.seattlepi.com/local/sound...in-2140363.php


Sounds like they borrowed money to make "hard money" loans with... :headscratch:

It doesn't get much dumber than that...

GregWeld 03-01-2014 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 539486)
Sounds like they borrowed money to make "hard money" loans with... :headscratch:

It doesn't get much dumber than that...




Here's the part that gets to me Lance. And he's not the first dumb ass to lose it all...


If a guy has 100 million... and makes a 5% annual return.. That's making 5 Million annually pre tax. Everything SHOULD BE paid for. No debt what-so-ever. Why would you need debt if you have 100MM dollars?

So 5MM per year is all disposable income. How much more does someone need to make to support their lifestyle? You're retired - You're worth 100MM - you earn 5MM per year - you have zero debt...

Call me old fashioned... but I think that's a pretty good life and lifestyle.... and I personally wouldn't be inclined to gamble that lifestyle/life to make a little bit more. I think my Jet and my Yacht and my waterfront house... and all my Ferraris and race cars would be enough to keep me busy and worry free.

glassman 03-01-2014 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539487)
Here's the part that gets to me Lance. And he's not the first dumb ass to lose it all...


If a guy has 100 million... and makes a 5% annual return.. That's making 5 Million annually pre tax. Everything SHOULD BE paid for. No debt what-so-ever. Why would you need debt if you have 100MM dollars?

So 5MM per year is all disposable income. How much more does someone need to make to support their lifestyle? You're retired - You're worth 100MM - you earn 5MM per year - you have zero debt...

Call me old fashioned... but I think that's a pretty good life and lifestyle.... and I personally wouldn't be inclined to gamble that lifestyle/life to make a little bit more. I think my Jet and my Yacht and my waterfront house... and all my Ferraris and race cars would be enough to keep me busy and worry free.

Its always the "tail" that runs you over....lol (ya know what i meen about "tail" right :theresa: ) JK of course, but i've seen many a man spend waaaaaay to much on their "girls". Like you said, "dumbass".....greedy bastards imo

GregWeld 03-03-2014 09:02 AM

I was looking for some of your names on Forbes Richest people list. You now need 31 BILLION with a "Big Capital B"..... even to make the cutoff.


Pretty amazing.


Think about a BILLION dollars:

You could have 3 30 million dollar homes -- and you'd still have 900 million dollars

If you had 3 30 million dollar jets -- you'd still have 800 million dollars

If you made 5% dividend per year on 800 million dollars -- you'd be making over 3 million dollars PER MONTH....

SSLance 03-03-2014 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539487)

Call me old fashioned... but I think that's a pretty good life and lifestyle.... and I personally wouldn't be inclined to gamble that lifestyle/life to make a little bit more. I think my Jet and my Yacht and my waterfront house... and all my Ferraris and race cars would be enough to keep me busy and worry free.

After I stepped away from the market a few years ago, I was talking with a friend who, while not in the 100mm net worth category, certainly has more money than he could ever spend in what's left of his lifetime. I mentioned to him about how well I was sleeping and how the load was off my chest not having to worry about the market.

He told me that the few times he's been completely out of the market over the years, he felt the exact opposite. He felt more comfortable in the game and when on the sidelines he has a restless feeling about missing the next big run up.

Some people are just wired differently I guess, they never tire of chasing the next million, ten million or even 100 million I guess.

Another favorite saying of his is... "it's just a function of zeros" It doesn't matter if it's a thousand, ten thousand or a hundred thousand in play, the game is still the same.

On another note, I guess I owe Putin a thanks...spent some time dollar cost averaging into the market a bit more again today. Didn't get everything I wanted but still added some good company holdings at a discount to the portfolio.

GregWeld 03-04-2014 07:42 AM

Whatever anyone bought yesterday is looking like a real hero today!


EEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA

Sieg 03-04-2014 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539971)
Whatever anyone bought yesterday is looking like a real hero today!


EEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA

Much more enjoyable than yesterday mornings decaf, today it's triple espresso!

toy71camaro 03-04-2014 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 539971)
Whatever anyone bought yesterday is looking like a real hero today!


EEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA

Was thinking the same thing. LOL. :headspin: :popcorn2:

SSLance 03-04-2014 08:56 AM

http://www.speedinfinity.net/forums/...lt/whistle.gif http://www.speedinfinity.net/forums/...ult/wereup.gif

GregWeld 03-04-2014 01:38 PM

I'm on the road in the rig...


But it's days like today that show you why it's so hard to do market timing. You just never know when those very few huge up days are going to hit. Better just to be in and ride the wave over time.

Now what you feel like, if you're not in.... is that you must "chase" the market. Then you sit and wait for the next big down day. And we run more and so on... It's why I advise against trying to "wait" for some stock to come off 50 cents. While you're waiting the shares run 8%. Painful.

SSLance 03-05-2014 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 540031)
Now what you feel like, if you're not in.... is that you must "chase" the market. Then you sit and wait for the next big down day. And we run more and so on... It's why I advise against trying to "wait" for some stock to come off 50 cents. While you're waiting the shares run 8%. Painful.


I've thought about this a lot, and you are correct for the most part Greg. You can get left on the side of the road chasing your tail for just a few pennies on the dollar.

I still think that for someone in my shoes during this day and age, it's a better strategy for me to wade slowly in instead of just diving in the deep end. Sure I may miss some run up in a few stocks, but if I've kept a portion of my powder dry, I also have a chance to buy the dips and lower my average cost per share. Plus, if there's another big correction before I'm all in, that's even better.

I'm up just over 2% on what I've put in so far...and I haven't been paid a dividend yet. I'm about a fifth of the way in with my IRA and haven't started with my Roth account yet.

What I'm doing while dipping my toe in the water is also getting a better feel for these companies I've already bought as well as those I'm still looking at. You pay a bit more attention as you have skin in the game and the more you read, the more it starts to sink in. I was much more sure about what I was buying this Monday vs the purchases I made a month earlier when I started. I expect that to only get better the further I go along. There was a little bit of information overload at first, but it's getting better and better every day.

Not unlike how I felt the first time I read one of Ron Sutton's instructional threads on how to improve the suspension on my car. :newbie: These days, just over 6 months later, I'm helping others understand what Ron is teaching. :rules:

takid455 03-05-2014 05:03 PM

Find it interesting how Bitcon CEO is found dead shortly after Bitcon implodes and $$$ is lost.

Just saying.

glassman 03-05-2014 05:24 PM

I saw that on CNBC, not sure its Bitcoin's CEO, i think he was the CEO of one of its China affiliates. None the less......smells like foulplay to me....

WSSix 03-05-2014 05:42 PM

He is actually she, Mike. I saw the article and they said suicide was the preliminary cause. It didn't mention anything about Bitcoin having issues, beyond their normal ups and downs, so I thought it was fishy to say the least. I feel for her loved ones and family.

Vegas69 03-05-2014 08:00 PM

It's really to bad that people correlate financial success with happiness to this degree in America.

96z28ss 03-05-2014 08:06 PM

In my opinion I doubt it was suicide. She has a pretty impressive resume. I don't think she would of committed suicide over the bitcoin tanking.
She could of easily gotten another job.

The bitcoin currency was used to launder a lot of drug money. Tell a drug lord he just lost a bunch of money, you're dead. I'm sure there is more to this.

WSSix 03-06-2014 03:05 AM

You're right, Todd. Only I'm really questioning if it was suicide. She died in Singapore. Not exactly a safe, incorruptible country. I'm not big on conspiracy theories but this just seems off is my initial impression. Maybe I watch too many movies or read too many books though.

gearheads78 03-06-2014 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WSSix (Post 540328)
You're right, Todd. Only I'm really questioning if it was suicide. She died in Singapore. Not exactly a safe, incorruptible country. I'm not big on conspiracy theories but this just seems off is my initial impression. Maybe I watch too many movies or read too many books though.

I was thinking the same thing.

glassman 03-06-2014 02:01 PM

Just remember that truth is stranger than fiction.....

sik68 03-06-2014 02:24 PM

It went down 15% today, so I just bought Staples (SPLS) after hours. It pays a 4.23% dividend.

I REALLY like that they plan to trim back their storefronts and focus more heavily on online ordering. Last I checked, schools and offices still need supplies, and they have good brand recognition.

Thoughts?

Vince@Meanstreets 03-06-2014 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sik68 (Post 540426)
It went down 15% today, so I just bought Staples (SPLS) after hours. It pays a 4.23% dividend.

I REALLY like that they plan to trim back their storefronts and focus more heavily on online ordering. Last I checked, schools and offices still need supplies, and they have good brand recognition.

Thoughts?

that looks like we're being bought activity. 4.23 is nice though. I may dump 40% of my Tesla and go for more KO or CAT.

Anyone have opinion on Great Northern Iron Ore (GNI).

My buddy has had them for several years and the div is nice but they are on a big drop. My friend just bought a bunch more. On the fence.

toy71camaro 03-07-2014 06:47 AM

Remember guys.. lets keep this on topic. the Whys and Hows of "Investing".. Not a Stock picking thread. that will get us no where fast. :)

Invest in what you know and understand. Do the homework, and don't take the friends advice blindly. Do your own investigative work.

Vince@Meanstreets 03-07-2014 07:49 AM

Okfine

GregWeld 03-07-2014 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sik68 (Post 540426)
It went down 15% today, so I just bought Staples (SPLS) after hours. It pays a 4.23% dividend.

I REALLY like that they plan to trim back their storefronts and focus more heavily on online ordering. Last I checked, schools and offices still need supplies, and they have good brand recognition.

Thoughts?




This IS NOT a stock picking thread --- but I would like to use STAPLES (SPLS) as an example here.

Steven - I know you've read and followed this thread for awhile now... so I have to ask you:

What part of the SPLS chart is lower on the left and higher on the right - 1 year it's down - 5 year it's down - 10 year it's down

More importantly -- it's 3 and 5 year TOTAL RETURN are both negative.

Now - it's just announced store closings.


My bet would be that the next "cost cutting" they do is the dividend payout.


So here's my FOOD FOR THOUGHT when picking stocks. If all the indicators are negative - and the stock is falling week after week and month after month... WHY BUY IT WHEN YOU CAN PUT YOUR MONEY IN SOMETHING THAT'S HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. Rather than "gambling" that after you buy - it's all going to somehow turn around?

I'm not trying to pick on you - or talk you out of your buy - I just want to use this particular buy / name to reiterate (for INVESTING 102) how to keep it easy and relatively safe - with GROWTH and INCOME... and that is to buy best of breed -- with good charts -- and total return (POSITIVE) -- so that at least we THINK we're headed in the right direction.

Another old market saying --- "Don't try to catch a falling knife".


:>)

CamaroMike 03-07-2014 10:59 AM

^Its like Sears, was once good but has been on a long downtrend.

sik68 03-07-2014 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 540547)
This IS NOT a stock picking thread --- but I would like to use STAPLES (SPLS) as an example here.

Steven - I know you've read and followed this thread for awhile now... so I have to ask you:

What part of the SPLS chart is lower on the left and higher on the right - 1 year it's down - 5 year it's down - 10 year it's down

More importantly -- it's 3 and 5 year TOTAL RETURN are both negative.

Now - it's just announced store closings.


My bet would be that the next "cost cutting" they do is the dividend payout.


So here's my FOOD FOR THOUGHT when picking stocks. If all the indicators are negative - and the stock is falling week after week and month after month... WHY BUY IT WHEN YOU CAN PUT YOUR MONEY IN SOMETHING THAT'S HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. Rather than "gambling" that after you buy - it's all going to somehow turn around?

I'm not trying to pick on you - or talk you out of your buy - I just want to use this particular buy / name to reiterate (for INVESTING 102) how to keep it easy and relatively safe - with GROWTH and INCOME... and that is to buy best of breed -- with good charts -- and total return (POSITIVE) -- so that at least we THINK we're headed in the right direction.

Another old market saying --- "Don't try to catch a falling knife".


:>)

Thanks Greg, I hear you on this one. It's less than 1% of my holdings... most of my other stuff falls right in line with the philosophy on this thread.

I know the stock chart looks bad...my only 'defense' is that the fire sale yesterday got me digging into their financial statements. Their books look a fair amount better than the stock chart indicates. Buying SPLS is me trying to put on my Warren Buffet cape for a stock that I think is undervalued.

GregWeld 03-07-2014 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sik68 (Post 540598)
Thanks Greg, I hear you on this one. It's less than 1% of my holdings... most of my other stuff falls right in line with the philosophy on this thread.

I know the stock chart looks bad...my only 'defense' is that the fire sale yesterday got me digging into their financial statements. Their books look a fair amount better than the stock chart indicates. Buying SPLS is me trying to put on my Warren Buffet cape for a stock that I think is undervalued.




As long as YOU are happy owing it -- that's all that counts. And like I said before and repeat often -- the person doing the buying needs to UNDERSTAND why they bought, and WHAT they bought.

It just was a great example of -- in my opinion -- the opposite of what kinds of stocks we've been discussing here so I had to use it to show why.

sik68 03-10-2014 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 540654)
As long as YOU are happy owing it -- that's all that counts. And like I said before and repeat often -- the person doing the buying needs to UNDERSTAND why they bought, and WHAT they bought.

It just was a great example of -- in my opinion -- the opposite of what kinds of stocks we've been discussing here so I had to use it to show why.


I know it's all about best-of-breed, and here I go buying underdog! :walkingdog: Just my thought process...basically I'm 30 and need to learn a thing or two. If it bombs, You :twak: me


I should also mention that although Staples does sound like a 'has been', they are the #2 online retailer in the world (yes, just behind Amazon). IMO, they are positioned very well for the future. Like everyone is saying, this is not a stock-picking thread...but I am bringing SPLS to the discussion because we all think we know an overvalued bubble stock when we seen one, but it's perhaps more worthwhile to think about good businesses whose stocks have tanked. Of course I don't know the future of SPLS, but maybe they aren't as washed-up as we thought, just in the dog house.

gearheads78 03-10-2014 05:04 PM

So I learned a little lesson today. There are a hand full of stocks I want to own but they have been too expensive for me to consider an entry point at current levels. Called my local Schawb office and asked if I have limit orders for more than one stock but only enough money in the account to buy one what would happen if more than one dropped to my buy point before I had a chance to cancel other orders. I was told since I don't have a margin account the first order would go through and the next would not fill since there is no money.

This was bad information. There was a large gap over the weekend on two of the stocks and both were purchased at market open this morning leaving my account balance negative. I have 3 days to make my account current.

All in all things will be fine. I was about to put my March deposit in the account that will cover my positions and both stocks are stocks I have faith will be excellent long term stocks to hold. In fact both are up above my buy point by the end of the day. :)

SSLance 03-12-2014 09:30 AM

I received (and reinvested) my first dividend payment yesterday...thanks JNJ!!

toy71camaro 03-13-2014 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSLance (Post 541282)
I received (and reinvested) my first dividend payment yesterday...thanks JNJ!!

Woohoo!!

GregWeld 03-18-2014 08:10 AM

Pretty sad information if you ask me.





http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...vings/6432241/

Sieg 03-18-2014 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregWeld (Post 542187)
Pretty sad information if you ask me.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...vings/6432241/

Very sad though not surprising considering the lifestyles "standards" of the last three decades.

The survey was a relatively small sampling and wonder how many of those surveyed were from the private vs public sector.


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