State of the Union
 

So Obama's going to say what kind of shape America is in tonight. I want to know what you guys think/feel? Case/ Shiller housing data showed new lows across all 20 cities measured today. Housing has not bottomed. Unemployment way too high. Where is this recovery the media speaks of?
I don't want to make this a political discussion, but purely an economic one.
Love to hear stories from the rest of you "in the trenches"

I think that people tend to look at things from their narrow perspective, like if their own economy is worse off than previously, then there must not be a recovery. Clearly a recovery exists, even if you only accept that things are not continuing to go off a cliff. Sometimes flat really is the new up.

Economically, I think the critical thing is for businesses to start spending money. They are sitting on huge piles of cash because they are afraid that the next economic shoe will drop, which oddly enough may actually drop because these companies aren't spending.

Ultimately I think it's about confidence. Everyone from businesses to individuals got spooked and went into panic save mode and unfortunately our economy is based heavily on money being spent and not saved. Gradually the confidence is coming back which is something you can see in a variety of places (housing market maybe less so).

So really, what everyone needs to do is buy that brake kit or crate motor, and do your part to help build confidence.

Being in the residential flooring business for 35 years, the last 2 has been the worst on record. We've cut, cut, and cut again and are still seeing negative numbers. The consumer has little confidence IMO. Many of our customers are business owners or exec's in larger corps and they are guarding their cash. The unkown IRS laws and Health Care Reform expenses appear to be the main issue.

It's a great market to hire, but no matter how good the employee you can't expect them to sqeeze blood out of a rock.

Based on my "insider" infomortion the giants in the industry, Shaw and Mohawk, are projecting the housing market to continue bouncing on the bottom for at least another 6+ months. Their operating expenses continue to increase and most manufacturers have sent out price increase notices within the last 2 weeks.

As with any resession there are certain sectors that prosper, residential housing certainly isn't one of them. Car dealers appear to be holding their own amazingly to me since they are now building $30K+ disposable cars. Insurance business isn't terrible and the doc's I know aren't crying too bad. Commercial construction is hurting, one local contractor has retracted from $65m to $28m.

Public sector continues to spend while the private sector contracts which is creating (IMO) justified animosity and tension.

Across the country 11 cops were shot yesterday..........that to me suggests tension in my book.

Cash flow and patience is the name of the game with me.

^^ Well said you guys. I'm no economist, but there are many componenets to this argument, and a few that the political/media machines will use as so called 'proof' of an improved economy:

- Rediculous unemployment calcs based on new filings, not total unemplyed or expired filings (they say it's 13% here in Ca. I bet the real number is 20+).

- Stock market that goes up. What a crock. These are strong, well managed companies that are not adding people to their payrolls, leaning out inventories, hoarding cash and no capital spend. As soon as the interest on the deficet outpaces our ability to even service the debt, interest rates go up or States get congressional releif in the form of BK ability the market will drop like a rock. I saw a graph the other day that overlayed the last 12 months Dow with the crash of 29. It was eerie how the numbers looked similar. I say buy gold now before it goes to $5k/oz...

I'm a guy that makes a living dependant on companies' capital spend and here's my take: Until people go back to work and we create more jobs than we lose (and we're only about 3.5m jobs in the hole), until foreclosed houses get cleared off the books the old fashioned way, until banks start lending we will be in the same boat we've been in for the last 18 months. Further, after the economy starts truely moving in the right direction we as a country need to start paying down our national debt. That's a tough pill to swallow for all Americans (and especially politicians) but if we want our American way of life and the return of the good ol' days it must be done.

Rant over. I'm ready to get back to hot cars...

My business is tied to retail, as I do services for commercial shopping centers. They have greatly cut back on maintenance and any spending. Worst two years of my 21 years in business since 08. I'm hoping things improve but don't see any improvement at all so far.

Jody

This is all I'll say since I belong to a conservative forum and this is a car forum;
I can only take so many lies in one sitting.
I'm not too keen on those smirks neither.;) :patriot:

Bushes fault.......Hope and change....Bushes fault.....change and hope.....Bushes fault......healthcare "reform" and evil rich people........Bushes fault.......uhhhh........Bushes fault!!!! I have detected a common theme to him in the last 2 years!! :rolleyes:


Anyway, I'm in commercial roofing and it hasn't been this bad since 1979-80... And I'm afraid that it will be worse this time, in the long run that is.

And it's so bad in places now -we've not even noticed these gas prices fixin to kick us in the azz!!!:yes: Big hurt on the co. i work for!!! jim

oh, I've noticed the gas prices. Gas here was $1.69/gallon just two years ago (Dec 08). It is now double that at $3.39/gallon. That costs me $2500 per month in increased fuel costs and in this economy I cannot recover any of it. All contracted work has actually been reduced to keep the contracts, so I end up working way harder for a lot less money.

Jody

2 years ago, we had a complete hiring freeze - no hiring under any circumstance (which directly effects me, I'm now on-call over 2,200 hours per year). We're hiring again to replace retirees and people leaving, so that gives me *some* hope that maybe things are at least trending for the better.

But really, I have zero confidence in our country's leadership.

I guess my outlook is different. I probably am ahead of the curve as I own an industrial distribution and engineering firm. I deal directly with manufacturers. We do nothing in Automotive (thankfully). The bottom fell out for us 3rd quarter of 2008, probably a little early than most recognized. 2009 was a disaster and 2010 saw a huge increase for us. We finished the year up about 21% over 2009 which brought us up a tick over 2008. We have been WOT since 3rd quarter 2010 and so far this month. We deal with Whirlpool, PPG, GE, Emerson, Coca Cola and other big companies. Coke is doing a $280 million plant expansion in our back yard. Whirlpool added shifts and re-opened 2 lines. I had a meeting with the Emerson people yesterday and they claim to be headed for the best year ever in 2011. Kenworth just announced that they are adding 85-90 people at a plant we work with. Steel prices and other metals are way up due to demand. I think we see the bottom first and the light at the end of the tunnel first. Hopefully, you guys see the turn around soon.

Darren

Some good points but if you really want to solve some of these issues we have cut the government in 1/2 we don’t need that many people working for us. WE THE PEOPLE BY THE PEOPLE not WE THE GOVERNMENT TELL THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY CAN AND CANNOT DO OR WHAT THEY CAN AND CANNOT BUY. It’s time for us to stand together and take back this country and stop all the nonsense spending and laws being created. Close the boarders and make all people come into America the same way and if you don’t like it get out. I live in AZ and the numbers coming across our desert daily are crazy.

It’s simple and will take a few years to do and get through but we and I mean all of us have got to start buying and building things in America. Try to only buy things from US companies and support your country. Buy CHEVY, DODGE or FORD stop buying the foreign cars. The American car companies are there now, the cars are built very well and will last for years. We bought 12 Chevy’s for projects last year to help support this country and will do so again this year. If you shop at Wal-Mart you are part of the problem because almost everything in that store is from overseas. If you want to support China then shop away at these places. You may spend a little more but at the end of the day you know you are helping out your fellow American and that means more to all of us.

We are feeling this economic crises just as much as anyone but we do what we can to spend our money with American companies and products. At the rate we are going we will not have our country much longer and if you don’t care then don’t do anything but if you do stand up and support your country and your military. FREEDOM is not FREE and buying American products keeps the money in America and that is what we need. If we stop buying stuff from other countries and work to make it ourselves like America used to do we will be back on top in no time but if we keep buying and relying on other countries we will fall to the ground and fall fast.

Well said Chris!

Chris - Couldn't agree with you more in every aspect. One significant problem I see is the younger generations were never taught these core values and just don't get it. Their focus is for lack of a better word selfish.

I hate shopping at Walmart, however I'm buying the identical products there as I do anywhere else for far less. I also like buying products there so I can avoid my dollars going to the unions. I only buy canned goods, cereal, trash bags etc. there - and it pisses the libs off so I grin while I do it.

I feel that until you get the fed to slow down its spending spree you will continue to have a problem. I also feel that in many ways the government is one of the biggest obsticals for small businesses to overcome. Have you seen what it takes to hire an employee in CA or NY for that matter? If they would stop throwing cash at a problem they created, the wheels of the machine just might start moving.

One of the toughest parts we will HAVE to overcome are these out of control entitelment programs. 99 weeks of unemployment? Outrageous pension programs? Reid's push for the stupid Dream Act? A mysterious, clouded, expensive health care program? These are all things that continue to dig our hole deeper.

I read some weeks back that as of mid 2010, private sector incomes were 40% behind public sector salaries. That's pathetic. It takes a dozen private sector employees to pay for one public sector's salary, benefits, pensions, payroll taxes etc. I feel the fed is so disconnected from reality, they don't understand how the gears and levers of the country actually work. At this rate it won't be long before there is no middle class and it will be the "haves" versus the "have nots".

I've been in residential Real Estate sales in Las Vegas since 2000. To say I've been on a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. The market was neutral when I started with reasonable affordability. Things got extremely overpriced and out of hand. My buddy puts it best. "They would loan you money on a pinky swear" I have no money to put in the pot, I can't prove I'm employed, etc. The signs were very apparent that the gravy train had to come to an end. I feel my experience is invaluable but the commissions and median price was way out of hand. When the police officers, teachers, dealers can no longer afford to buy a home, you have a problem.

One of the scenarios that really put the writing on the wall for me was on a listing I had in 2006. It was listed at $679,000 and was bought by an investor from Utah with 0 down. When you looked at the ROI he was in the hole over $2,000 per month. :rolleyes: Where is the investment? Speculation... I later found out that he got out from under it with his shorts and the next guy let it go back to the bank. Big surprise.

Once the balloon popped. People were buried in their homes nearly over night. I've seen people buried in their homes that purchased in the 80's! (Less than desirable areas) Even in the best locations, we are back to 2001-2002 now.

Up until the balloon popped, I enjoyed Mom and Pops selling their home and buying a home from a REAL seller. Now, people wouldn't get off the fence due to the declining market and thought their property value would come back. So I spent about 3 years without ONE sale between a normal buyer and seller. All my deals were bank owned properties. 2010 was the first year where REAL sellers got back in the market if they had equity. They finally realized that property values aren't coming back anytime soon and making a lateral move isn't the end of the world.

I've had to adapt to the market endlessly. Median prices are back to about the same level as when I started in 2000. I wasn't one of those Real Estate agents that burn't all my bridges when things were at full sail. I also didn't go out and buy the biggest house I could afford at my peak income years. I've blown my fair share of money. Take a look at my build thread. :D After the dust settled, I've been forced to have 2 employees to make this deal work. I could spend 10-15 hours a week just on paperwork. The paperwork has quadrupled in 10 years and every deal is 3 times harder to close. Buyers that think they are stellar can't get financing. Better than half my listings are Short Sales. (Owe more than the house is worth) Now I'm negotiating with debt collectors. I thought I sold houses? You talk about a long haul. In the last 6 months, EVERY transaction has been from referral or a repeat client. I'm glad I still took care of those folks when things were fantastic.

Personally, I don't see anything changing on this front anytime soon. I can't blame people from walking away from their mortgages. If you were buried with no light at the end of the tunnel, your outlook may change. I've got people that put down their life savings and still can't sell conventionally.(200k or more)

The positive side of this whole deal is affordability. The police officers and teachers are my clients again. In fact I have 3 of them right now. Prices are really close to where they need to be economically. You can often own for less than you can rent. Now that makes sense.

My opinion on this Country is that everybody is going to be forced to accept a new reality. Where is all this money coming from? I sure as hell don't have that much left over at the end of the year. I trim my budget as tight as possible but at the end of the day, I have costs that are hard. I'm forced to work harder and adapt to make this business profitable. I'll take the great with the tough. I may bitch a little along the way but I saw the writing on the wall.

Eleven years ago I moved here with my parents flower couch and the smallest uhaul trailer behind my S10.(22 years old, the good old days) I had no job, no place to live, and $3000 to my name. I lived behind the Gold Coast for 6 months. I wouldn't get out of the car in that area now. I didn't know any better at the time. Just a couple rednecks from Iowa that moved to the big city. My point, I had nowhere to go but up. I've worked my ass off to get where I am today. When your back is against the wall, you find a way to make it happen. If this deal gets to the point where it's not profitable, I'll be forced to find another avenue or even a new place to call home. I have no regrets and wouldn't change a thing.

I struggle with a good attitude somedays just like the rest of you. I'm a firm believer that the world is saturated with to much information. Watching the news makes a guy want to pull the trigger. Who needs that crap. I'm going back to my buddy again. He puts it best, "You go to work with a good attitude, the rest takes care of itself." It works......

I am a union plumber 29 years of age and agree 100% with Chris Feslers post. I try and only buy american, have never shopped at walmart, and do not see anything wrong with a hard working educated individual making a good wage and being able to retire when the time comes. Am i missing something nopant68? U would rather give your money to a big corporate company who pays there employees peanuts and actually sets them up with government assistance, then give your money to a hard working american? This is why our country is in the hole from guys like this!!!!!!!!! Its not the unions that created this hole we are all in!

Let me get this straight- so by your account the people who work at WalMart are not hard working Americans? Does WalMart force people to work at their stores? WalMart buys in massive bulk and avoids the headaches that some unions bring to a corporation so it can offer items at a discount price. It would be a poor choice to blame a guy like me for the hole we are in because I buy cereal and grease sweep at Walmart bud. Get a clue.

Let's take for instance the teacher's union. How about in New Jersey where you have some of the poorest test results with some of the highest paid wages. When Chris Christie asked that particular union to pay for 1% of their own health care they balked in protest. That would have saved the bankrupted state millions. Nope- that sound like a union that wants to help save America? You think it's much different in CA? It's worse.

I'm not blaming your union for the downfall of America. You may or may not be able to understand that. But don't question my patriotism or my will to do my part.

I'm sorry, but I have to challenge.

Public employees unions are killing us. The average annual compensation for fire/emt department of 204 employees here is $102,000, a large percentage as the trade unions would say are scabs with their side businesses. The police are 192 employees and average $98,000. I have worked very closely with the local police thanks to a severly broken criminal justice system and realistically there are only 20% of them that are really commited to public service. The majority are in it for themselves...........period. Their medical benefits are at a level I can only dream of for myself and my employees. They're putting in 25years of 40 hour weeks and retiring with $5,000+ a month for the rest of their lives.

My company's labor force (floor covering) was union for 39 years (1960-99) I started there fulltime in '76 and my father served 10+ years on the pension board. My wife's side of the family is 3 generations deep in teaching (8 individuals) at middle and high school level. I have a reasonable understanding of fair and equitable.

IMO the public sector is blatently raping the private sector especially considering their level of job commitment. Plan and simple the public sector cannot sustain itself. They are constantly under funded and under staffed, we hear the rhetoric every year.

Sorry

I guess since New Jersey had a problem with there school system that all the teachers unions are to blame? Thats usually the republican response to such garbage. Blame unions, because it isn't right that a hard working american should be able to work his ass of at work make 40 bucks an hour and be able to retire with a comfortable amount of income! It is ok however to purchase from a company that does nothing for its american workers, helps them sign up for government assistance, provides no medical etc. These are the people we all bitch about in this first place. Too much government programs, welfare system, illegal immigrants! So next time u go shopping for cereal and floor sweep remember all that big money u saved because it's getting tossed right back into our government to help support those workers of walmart! Btw I think the problem in california is its southern border!

I normally don't get involved in conversations such as this, but I would have to challenge your challenge. I am not sure if you are aware but public employee's pay into their own retirement system (at least in California). So that alleged $5,000.00 a month for retirement is paid into by the police officers and firefighter/EMTs. It is true, in this day and age police officers and firefighters are very well compensated as they should be. I would also have to challenge your made up statistic that only 20% percent of police officers are commited to public service. I find it hard to believe that the other 80% are risking something as valuable as their LIFE just to "be in it for themselves.....period". Now I know absolutly nothing about the floor covering business but I would find it hard to believe that when you leave for work, you wonder if you are coming home. In the first 26 days of the new year, 15 police officers have been killed in the line of duty, 12 have been shot in the last 48 hours. Again, I must plead ignorance because I am not privy to the statistics of individuals in the flooring industry but my guess would be that none have been murdered this year while at work. I don't know you at all, but if you or one of your family members life was in danger and you needed immediate police assistance I think you should pray that the officer responding is one of the 20% that is committed to public safety. I am just glad that the 12 of my friends who have been killed in the line of duty, including my partner were all commited to public service.

Greg Rickman
www.inmemoryofthefallen.org

WOW!! I wish Obama could read this stuff.He might wake up and smell the coffee and really try and change the way our goverment does thing's.He think's he only selling our kids down the river.But it his kind that will really be in deep shlt because they can't do anything for them selve's but stand in line w/their hand's out.Wanting the rest of us to fill their plate's.Obama was running for relection last night.If he is lucky enough to get relected in 2012 He will go right back to selling the working class back down the river.God bless real american's.

Bottom line is jobs. Everything else is a mute point.

If a million dollar car build is for sale for a dollar and you have 50 cents, then the ridiculous low price still doesn't have a buyer.

China is laughing at us bigtime.

Tax things that are not made in America, so we can make it here for the same price as the taxed goods from China. Sure it will cost a little more but at least an american has a job and a person on welfare isn't buying the cheap good from somewhere else.

Foreign made at lower cost / American on welfare , (i.e. no job) buys the foreign made product. Pretty soon you run out of other peoples money.

We need a business man to step up.

My sincere condolences. Our area is very similar to Bolder and Berkley. Over the years I've worked closely with numerous chiefs and 60+ patrol officers, DA's, Judges, etc. many considered friends. We've had our share of corruption and medical discharges. I will always support those who make an a reasonable effort. I've been supporting a police dept via task forces and committees in a community that would prefer not to have one and is now becoming a popular place for gangs being centrally located off I-5. I'm sure it my business ha

:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

My sincere condolences.

Our area is very similar to Bolder and Berkley. Over the years I've worked closely with numerous chiefs and 60+ patrol officers, DA's, Judges, etc. many considered friends. We've had our share of corruption and questionable medicalmental discharges. I will always support those who put forth a reasonable effort. For years I've been supporting a police dept via task forces and committees, acting as a liasion between patrol officers and desk jockeys in a community that acts like they would prefer not to have one. To the point many officers have turned in their tazers because of personal liability. Now area is becoming a popular place for travelers from all areas of the country and more bothersome, LA originating gangs since we're centrally located on the I-5 corridor.

I'm sure it my business has lost numerous customers because of my fundamental principles and support of law enforcement.

In our area, which I've lived all my life, the level of service in the majority of public sectors has been declining, IMO due to internal policy and procedure regualtion and animosity is rising as value deminishes.

At this point, in 1976 when I went to work for our company I wish would have got on the department, I'd have comfortably retired 5 years ago and worked 20 less hours a week. Now, at 52 years old, retirement is doubful. My mistake. Thankfully I'm much better off than the average American.

There needs to be reasonable balance.

Really too many issues to blame just one thing. But just a few that are MY OPINION :thumbsup:
Unions were good in the past, but now most (not all) are led by scumbags that could give a flip about the employees, except for the worthless employees that is and then they protect them from getting fired. Just like the government and welfare, they (both govt and unions) breed an entitlement mentality, that someone is "owed" something. Which breed all kinds of other issues. Nobody is "owed" anything, they can work for it, which is fine, but not owed.
Then there's "fair trade".......Whatever!! If it was fair, the freighters going back to china would have product in them, not just US cash!! Lol! But some of that can bring up another union and too high wage argument also.
Then there's the whole crooked and totaly out of touch and control government! There needs to be new rules to term limits, and then rules that state that after the term is up, they can't go work for any company or lobby that is on the tit! And also their retirement for being a public servant is cut in half (or more!) so they are off the tit!!
Then there's welfare and unemployment, MAKE THEM TAKE A DRUG TEST!!!! The rest of the working world has to, make them!!!

But NONE of this will ever happen because the politicians have to vote for the changes. That won't happen because it will take too much power out of their hands.

So, in essence we are screwed!! Happy happy, joy joy!!:willy:

and there ya go ............. I love a good political debate, but not on this site. They always turn that way unfortunately.