Quote:
Originally Posted by Woody
Greg,
I appreciate your input and that is why I posted. I wanted to get some others viewpoints and maybe some new ideas on how others analyze stocks.
I will try to keep it to a more general discussion in the future.
Thanks
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Woody --- I thought your question on Microsoft was a very good one -- and I hope you didn't take my discussion of why I wouldn't choose that particular stock as a personal affront - that wasn't my intention.
It was a great question! Many people would love to be able to pick the "next Microsoft"... and still look at MSFT stock as some kind of a "must own". So it was a perfect name to bring up here -- since I've been pounding the desk saying to get into names you know and understand.
I was trying to use that question to put another level of thought process into this "stock picking" business. I really wish MSFT would be the stock that it used to be... but it has had 10 long dismal years of being stuck in the mud. I'm trying to get people that haven't EVER invested in anything -- to start saving and investing -- and I NEED them to buy a little bit of this and a little bit of that, and have SUCCESS! That success needs to be GROWTH in their money (account) AND to see what dividend investing can do for them. Even if a guy only gets a $10 dividend -- that is "free money".
On the way home today - I got a text that said "GO McDonalds"! -- So I called the guy and said "what's up with that" --- well he was all excited because 5 months ago I got him to start investing and one of the picks was MCD -- and he bought at $84 and today it closed at over $100....
He wouldn't be real excited if he'd bought MSFT at @ $25 and it closed today at $25.15
I'll come back to the "This thread is Investing 102".... I want these guys to see some RESULTS.
I've hammered 'em on LOOK AT THE LONG TERM CHART...... because that TREND CAN BE YOUR FRIEND (old dumb saying but it works)... Or "don't try to catch a falling knife" (don't buy a broken stock that is falling just because it used to be "good"). These are all sayings that actually do work. And they're good reminders to me (I use them to myself all the time!).
So again -- my only "lesson" point was -- if I look at a chart of MSFT -- and it's been FLAT for 10 years -- I don't get any good argument that says "BUY IT BECAUSE IT MIGHT GO UP".... That's just gambling. Like standing at a slot machine thinking "My next 20 bucks might hit the big one...."