Thread: Investing 102
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Old 01-07-2012, 03:46 PM
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GregWeld GregWeld is offline
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Total return numbers came from Schwab website. I don't know if you can get to them without having an account.

I think the Google site % is share price gain only but I'm not sure. I do all the research using Schwab website since it's easy and gives me all the info I can use.

I've been writing in a manor that will just get people going and to show thought process and what you're doing is exactly what I've been preaching. Pick some sectors - compare some stocks - then go with what you feel. It's easy for someone else to talk you into buying this or that -- but that's not comfortable when they're going down or sideways. The person that did the research - can go back and reassure themselves why they picked what they did... and they can trust their own instincts.

Will they always be right - hell no - will they always pick the name with the best return - hell no.... but just looking at those stocks above should be enough to show anyone - that there is real power in those stocks... 40 - 50 - 60% returns... are nothing to sneeze at!


I think HISTORY is a great guide - not the only guide - but it's a very good predictor of future behavior. I can't see into the future - but a stocks history of good steady growth and dividend increases etc -- I can't fight that trend. Is it 100% right -- nope.... but it works until someone shows me a better way.

LUCK also plays a large part in investing. So if you're lucky - you can pick a name - and hit 400% returns... or more... but trust me when I tell you that when you're NOT lucky -- it sucks. Money is too hard to come by to watch it go down the drain.

Now -- Dr Pepper and Snapple are hardly new names or brands. The companies have a far longer history than the 3 years since the merger - and obviously they're having some success. But again -- I LIVE off my dividends and bond income - so I tend to pick "for certain" names over something else... but I'm OLD - and RETIRED - and have a big appetite for cash flow... I don't like to second guess myself - so if "I" am picking - I'll give up the "perfect chart" and a 1% difference in dividend payout - in order to just be happy and content. So even if Hansen Soda is going gangbusters - I'll buy Coke over it because I think I have some certainty.. So that's just the way I think. Remember too -- that I think differently NOW than I did 20 years ago -- and my personal situation is far far different than the 99%... So just keep that in mind. My thought process is probably more conservative than someone that's trying to hit a double - and has 30 years to go before they retire. But unless they have lady luck on their side -- my "method" is going to kick their ass.
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