Today I took a look at some of the home builders... Which is a group I don't own and have never owned. I now know why! Wow what horrible charts. I thought perhaps now might be the time to look to see if there's some upside to them but AS USUAL I'm way late to that party. The smart money has already bid them up over the last couple years.
Lennar (LEN) has moved 200+% in the last TWO years! And now trades near its peak and pays a lousy half a percent dividend.
K B Homes (KBH) is one they talked about on CNBC this morning as having "not traded up with its peers" --- but it too is up this year 35% already and pays a stinky little dividend.
It's easy to look and say -- geez! They're going up big time and I'm losing out... and that MAY be true enough.. and yes... I think we're on the road to a housing recovery based on the bids for property my buddy just got on his 5 acres (6 bidders slugging it out!).
SO HERE'S MY TAKE: This is gambling... you're gambling that there is a SUSTAINED (2 to 5 years) housing turnaround.. and at this point if there is one LITTLE hiccup in the numbers - you're going to see these sell off big time... and the dividends aren't the kind that will make you comfortable waiting for 'em to come back. So while I might miss a nice double over the next couple years - I might also miss getting my azz handed to me.
Remember that in investing - you have CHOICES... and if you make a wrong choice -- you get a double negative for your effort. The double negative is that you loose on the bet - and since your bet is now tied up - something else is on the move up. So you lost and you lost the ability to catch the ride on the upside... that's a double negative in my book.
So here's my thought when choosing investments -- you look -- like at a pretty girl - it's okay to constantly be looking... but you don't need to risk your marriage going on a date. Yes - the upside is appealing - everyone loves to hit a big winner.... but the downside is just not worth "the risk". Europe hiccups - we hiccup - the tax law changes (vote OBAMA if you want to continue on a downward "entitlement" slide ala Europe) that might happen etc... and there's a lot of risk to a shaky recovery at this point. And since you don't get paid to wait - why bother.
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