We don't want to be discussing individual recommendations to buy or sell companies -- we want to keep this thread about investments in general... and use various real life companies for discussion purposes and examples...
SO with this "view" in mind....
I've updated my Apple (AAPL) iPhone to the new iOS6.... the one you may have heard about with the messed up Map app. I shrugged this map debacle off.... but it is something that I use ALL THE TIME....
Adrienne (daughter) was in Chandler yesterday trying to find where the new rig is -- it's at a well known address -- it's Freightliner of Chandler - it's right on the I-10 freeway... but is a weird set of streets to get there.... HER iPhone can not find the place so she's calling me.... Mine won't find it either and I had actually put the street address in!! OMG are you kidding me!
Okay -- so this isn't really a big deal right? Well --- it could be as far as the STOCK is concerned... because this is making all the news headlines and it's all you hear about from the talking heads etc on TV.... So why would it be important to the stock? Again just using this as a POSSIBLE EXAMPLE....
Apples stock has been on a tear -- it's really been meteoric.... and it's "priced for perfection"... which means any little hiccup in sales or gross revenue or by any other "metric" it has to OUTPERFORM the expectations.
Now -- they've only shipped a few million of these - into an installed base of a half a gazillion or whatever number it is... but and here's the big BUTT -- what if this gives consumers "pause" -- maybe just a pause on buying a $600 phone waiting for the company to come out with a fix - or perhaps they - after having had several versions of the iPhone - decide to actually take a look at the Android versions -- or whatever.... Maybe just 5% of people do this and Apple's sales numbers miss the "expectations". BAM! Ya get hammered. And you get hammered over night... and sometimes then, this causes a great run to finally "break" because people with HUGE profits decide to start selling to lock in a profit... they get "nervous"... their selling causes more selling...
Remember that to make an UP market -- you need MORE buyers than sellers... and when you have more sellers than buyers - things go DOWN not up.
You want to see this in real life -- pull up an "ALL" chart of Microsoft (MSFT).... the peak is December 1999 (the actual month they announced Steve bonehead Ballmer was going to be the new President) -- this chart looks like a MOUNTAIN -- a long slope up -- a nice (huge) peak -- and a long slope down.... More SELLERS than BUYERS.
What I'm really talking about here is what you hear all the time - IS THERE A "FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE" in the business? Is there a "consumer sentiment" change?
I'm not saying there is - or is going to be - or anything like that --- What I'm saying is ----- Lets watch and see 'cause it might be a great learning experience. For the market, I hope this doesn't happen... but I'm keeping my eyes and ears open, and if my friends start talking about maybe looking at a different phone "this time" --- or if they're saying they're "fine with the phone I have".... DUDE! I'm paying attention to that!
All of you are very intelligent -- and now what you need to LEARN is how to use what you know - put that into an understanding of how to be "ahead" of the market - or how to "spot a trend".... without even thinking about it - you may have done this in the past. Now start to think about how it could possibly affect your investments.
I'm not talking about being SPECULATORS here -- I talking about just good old fashioned basics.
When you go to Home Depot - are they busy? Or have you begun to see empty stores...
Are your friends all buying new cars and trucks? Or not....
Are you being asked to work overtime? Are they hiring or laying off...
Is the restaurant you go to all the time packed? Or are you going there less and nobody talks about the place anymore...
Put your eyes in and your thinking cap on and start to look at this "basic info"
and how you could be ahead of the market - or maybe not buy that sector in the market - or is there some investable play here?
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