Thread: Investing 102
View Single Post
  #3328  
Old 11-23-2013, 08:14 PM
GregWeld's Avatar
GregWeld GregWeld is offline
Lateral-g Supporting Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Scottsdale, AriDzona
Posts: 20,741
Thanks: 504
Thanked 1,080 Times in 388 Posts
Default

Lance ----


You only loose money when you SELL… So what I'm saying is -- you're either into the wrong investments -- or you tend to pull the plug at the wrong time.

The reason I'm saying this - #1 - MANY people read these threads… so when I write - I write for "others" not just a single response…

The reason I preach investing the way I do - is that this is INVESTING 102 -- a beginners thread… it's not a "I have millions and do all manor of investing" thread. So buying what you know - understand - and TRUST to be there long term is to keep people from freaking out and selling at a loss when things aren't going so well. Rather - what they should be doing is putting steady money to work on a constant basis… which will have them adding more shares when prices are lower…

There's no way for anyone to respond to your post… because the details just aren't there - and they don't need to be and I'm not asking for them. Rather - what I'm seeing is a "boom and bust" investor (face value - without the details). Happy as a clam when the market is up -- poo faced when the market is normal or down. THAT is a sure fired way to loose your ass. My guess is that if you looked back at your actual stock investments - when you bought them - and did some quick calculations had you HELD them and reinvested the dividends - rather than going to cash or moving in and out… that you'd be far richer now.

Now --- another thing is in my humble (not really) opinion is that you're very near sighted. You're not ready for retirement -- or can't retire like you'd like to - and you've stopped investing because you're "nearing" retirement. REALLY? You going to die shortly? Or do you plan to live until what age? If you add the time until you can access your funds - 59.5 years old - and when you plan to be 6 feet under -- say another 30 years (89.5 ain't that old anymore!) seems to me you'll have a very very long horizon for the market to work for you and keep working for you.

See that's the problem -- INFLATION -- I've already been retired for 22 years (or 23 - I forget) -- and I'm just 60 -- and I plan to live a very good long time - and I plan to spend more as I age because there's a whole lot of stuff I've yet to do. Therefore my investments are paying me to play now - and growing over time - with rising dividend payouts - and capital growth… I DO NOT PLAN to suck. I PLAN to live well and keep it that way. Will my net worth go up and down over the next 30 years? Hell yes! Will my dividend payouts keep coming and keep me in the lifestyle to which I'm accustom? Yes - unless there's something like the zombie apocalypse which I can't control.

So --- I think your SALESMAN (called a broker) is making more money than you are moving you in and out of the market - and selling you inappropriate investments - and then calling you up and selling (churning) your accounts when it's easy to play on your fears.

Bonds are terrible investments and are only used as a small portion of your funds and should be used as TAX FREE MUNI'S when you already have a very high taxable income. Not sure why a guy would put a retirement account in bonds - except they don't really know much about investments… If you owned the bonds as TAX FREE MUNI'S to get current income without the additional income tax - then that is a different story… but we don't know your actual situation. IF you'd held the bonds until maturity - you would not have lost a single dime.. and you'd have been collecting the interest. Bonds shouldn't be bought for capital appreciation - they should only be bought for INCOME and "safety" IF == BIG IF == You plan to hold until maturity. BONDS SUCK OTHERWISE.

So here's my advice - and I'm not being critical nor am I making fun of you or anything of the kind….

I think you need to rethink your investment approach - and take charge of your own investments WHEN you think you can approach investing as what it is - INVESTING. When you understand that capital appreciation happens over time - and that at times you may be going backwards - but that over time you'll have gains. And when you understand that a balanced investment portfolio isn't a get rich quick scheme… and that the market doesn't go straight up day after day… and most importantly - that you understand your personal investing weaknesses. If you are the type that tends to panic at the least amount of "capital loss" (even if they're not realized) - then maybe no investment is suitable for you. But I believe that people can LEARN to change their ways and conquer their fears If they can learn to buy great companies and trust that over time they will be fine.

Learn that (let's just pick a company and make some sh t up) CHEVRON will go up and will go down - but that they pay you 3% every 3 months… and that even when the stock you bought at $120 is now at $100 - it's still paying you 3%…. and that you really don't have a loss unless you're stupid enough to sell… and that if you owned 100 shares at $120 and bought 100 more at $100 you'd now have 200 shares at $110… and you'd be making 4% because the dividend is being paid in dollars not percentages… and then 5 years go by and Chevron is trading at $130 and now paying 4% (on the current $130 price!) which raises your actual dividend to about 6% because your 3% calculation was based on the rate paid at the time you bought it. Period. When they raise the dividend - it's a raise and if you want to know what you're making in real terms you'd just have to do a bit of simple math.


In other words --- Chevron (CVX)in 2004 was paying 36.5 cent per share per quarter --- and today they are paying $1.00 per share per quarter. So if you'd bought and held back in 2004 -- and paid a whopping $47.70 per share -- and now you're 10 years later and they're paying you $4.00 a year to own their stock - that's almost 10% on your cost basis… and that's if you'd never re-invested the dividends (which everyone should be doing unless they're already retired!). Oh yeah -- and let's not forget that capital appreciation you're worried about --- it's (Chevron) only 237% over the last 10 years.

I don't know -- it all seems so boring to me…. but then again -- I'm just retired and running my race cars and building new hot rods and traveling all over the place in my Semi…

Yes - now I'm being a smart ass…. but it's also factual. Just saying'. Maybe you're broker ain't so smart after all.

Last edited by GregWeld; 11-23-2013 at 08:29 PM.
Reply With Quote