[SSLance]

My only reason for posting the analysis of MO Friday was to see what my return might have been back when I was in the market if I had owned MO.

Several have accused me of thinking too much by doing this exercise, but at the same time all suggest that each of us do our own homework and research then decide what to invest on based on said research.

For the record, my FA had me in the "dividend income" plan in the 2006-2008 period, and I understand it very well. What I experienced was in lock step with what MO went through. A stock in their "dividend income" plan would cut it's dividend (for whatever reason) like MO did in 2008 and not only would the share price plummet, but at the same time they'd decide the stock didn't fit the parameters of the plan, so they'd sell it and go into another stock. The net result typically was a capital loss on the sell wiping out the return made up until that point.

I haven't gone back and looked at it since, and I haven't seen where anyone else has corrected my numbers from Friday...but if they are true, how can one NOT include the 3% a year ROI on the stock for the 15 year period in their analysis?

Sure, I agree, the 5 year history numbers look fantastic, but doesn't just about every stock's 5 year chart look great. It's because they start at the bottom. The 10, or 15 year charts look much different... In my opinion one can not claim to disregard "timing the market" yet cherry pick the time periods to show return history of a certain stock or strategy.

Also for the record, I am not using this example as a reason to stay out of the market, I'm using this research as a way to find my own path for investing for the future... I agree with much of what has been said in this thread, one has to be confident and comfortable with the investment choices that are made. Having been there, done that for a significant period of time...I'm now trying to find a new way to be confident and comfortable...