[GregWeld]

Rather than just add to the post count here - repeating what's been said in the last 400 pages over and over again... I've been holding back waiting for "events" in the market that would be NEW and of possible interest to all of you.

I think the Apple (AAPL) news - both the rise and the fall (yesterday) - and their upcoming events next week give me that opportunity.

Remember that I am never recommending WHAT to do or what to buy or sell. That's not this thread. I just want to use this as an example of a way to THINK.

Here we have a watershed moment which comes along every once in awhile in the market. You have a company that is just kicking butt... The stock recently split 7 for 1 - thus making it more affordable... so I would ASSume that is a good thing. You have a company that makes a TON of money... and is constantly in the news. Mostly all speculative and favorable.

And here's the INVESTING 102 info:

Let's ASSume for a minute that we're holding the name. We know there's a big product launch coming. We know we're going into the 4th quarter - and in RETAIL that's "everything". And all of a sudden the stock gives us a "buying opportunity" (meaning the stock DROPS). What to do?? Do we add to our positions?? Is the stock suddenly "broken"? Should we average down? Should we get in if we're not already owning?

This IS NOT about this stock - this is about a SITUATION - using this stock as a current example.

I own this particular name (5000 shares). I have a nice gain in the name. I've been in EXACTLY this same situation many times in the past with various other names.

I'd call this situation - standing on the railroad tracks. Why? Because you KNOW there's a train coming. You can jump on the train and get a free ride OR you might get run over. Those are the two things you can count on in the stock market. One is going to make you "the smartest guy in the universe" - the other is going to kill you. EITHER WAY --- it's pure gambling. You're betting that you're smart enough and quick enough to step out of the way - grab the handle and swing yourself on board for that big ride up. But if you're not - and you're timing sucks just a little, you are UNDER that train.

When you have so much "anticipation" that something big is going to happen in a name -- don't think that you're the only guy on the planet that is thinking this way. Remember there are TWO SIDES to every transaction --- and that huge anticipation can bring with it - huge disappointment. Think of the basketball game where there's 1 second on the clock - your guy is inbounding and you MUST make this shot to win... sometimes the player sinks the shot... and sometimes they miss and lose. There's jubilation if he makes it - and much head hanging if he doesn't. It's VERY emotional!!

What I'm trying to say - in too many words - don't get caught up in the hype and just throw you're money in the ring by buying (HOPING) that the big event is going to just make you money hand over fist. Lots of times when the hype outstrips the actual fact - the sellers pour in and take the big event into the trash can with the missed shot! Sometimes the big event is even bigger than the hype and the stocks sails off and leaves you wishing you'd tripled your investment (bet).

So before a guy just goes crazy --- THINK ABOUT HOW THIS INVESTMENT FITS YOUR PLAN. Are you buying because it's a name on your list you just want to own for the long term. And here it has dipped a bit - and now's your chance to buy. FINE. That's a PLAN -- that's not gambling. You've been patient - saved up your cash - you wanted to own the name regardless and here's as good an opportunity as any. BUT please don't be indiscriminate. Never invest (gamble) that you're going to buy and it's going to pop UP. You'll only be disappointed if it doesn't - and that plays on your mind in a very negative way. We have enough things to stew over... let's not have it be our long term investments.

20 years ago I'd have doubled down or tripled down on the "big" drop yesterday.... only to now own 2 or 3 times as many shares and watch them go down even harder after the big "earnings news" or the "big event" (that didn't happen)... or the big whatever. I rode the hype and got my azz handed to me many times. Sometimes I scored huge... most times the little man on Wall Street took me to the woodshed - doing exactly the opposite of what I expected (I was just certain!) to happen.

Don't take little moments in time and get all jacked up about 'em. Take the longer view and be patient. Look at any name and ask yourself if you think LONG TERM this is a company I want to own come hell or high water. If that's the case - fire away! But if you're just thinking that now's the perfect time to score big money quickly. Please don't. You'll be sorry more times than you can imagine.

My impulse yesterday was to be a buyer. It's a great company with great products - it's a company whose products my whole family uses... I already own it... and there's the key. I already own it. If it jumps up I get the ride... if it goes down - I have a good position and I'll just hold. But I'm NOT going to just blindly stand in front of that train....because I just can't sleep well knowing I gambled because I just knew the big event was going to make me money. NO! I'll make money if I already own the name (insert any name).

I'm not talking anyone out of buying anything - and I'm not saying to buy... what I'm saying is to UNDERSTAND WHY YOU'RE BUYING or SELLING and to keep the emotion out of the sale or the buy.