[Flash68]

Originally Posted by Jr

Alright... Who has a crystal ball that is in good working condition?

Where will real estate and the economy be in one year? If you listen to the main stream media, real estate will be worse off then the crash a few years ago.

Opinions are welcome.

To start, I've pretty much nailed the timing on my 4 transactions on the buy and sell sides over the past 11 years. It wasn't lucky -- I research(ed) the hell out of RE and economic indicators (Econ degree here) and I enjoy it.

If wasn't a month away from our first child, I would have sold our primary residence and rented earlier this year. I actually had my wife talked into it. But we decided against it. Moving just isn't okay like I used to be with it in smaller properties. But from a pure analysis discussion, I'd take the money and run and fight another day if were more mobile.

I've been touring 4 plexes lately and there is a tremendous amount of ALL CASH still chasing RE. We still have a big supply constriction issue here in Norcal for most properties in the areas I follow (SF & Oakland/inner East Bay). I'd like to get into some rental property but I am not going to offer 120% of asking to get it. I'll wait.

I say RE will slow down it's acceleration rate and start flattening in about a year. RE moves like a big ship usually. It's fast on the way up and "stickier" on the way down.

Originally Posted by GregWeld

You should take a longer term approach.... nobody has a crystal ball... that's just guessing. Might as well toss dollars up in the air and follow them down the street.

Hey dude, this ain't your Investing 102 thread. This is a fun prognostication thread. Let it happen.

Originally Posted by Jr

Greg,
Good point. We just sold our home, and we are looking to purchase another home. Southern California prices are high right now, but if another recession is close, I'll rent till then.

I like your thinking. Look at the appreciation and bubblelicious valuations right now. We are right back to 2006-2007 again.... and it's rate & supply driven.

Originally Posted by Track Junky

All my eggs are in one basket which is real estate. If you would have bought awhile back you would have saved hundreds of thousands but prices have gone up quite a bit in the past couple years. The good thing is that money is still cheap. Personally I follow the ten year cycle. 2006 everything took a dump. I sold three properties at the end of 05 and made a killing. following the ten year cycle from 2006 to 2011 prices continued to decline leveling off late 2012 and then beginning to rise 2013. Peak should be late 2015 into 2016 then watch out cause it will happen all over again.
This is just my personal opinion and how I gauge the market.

Are you looking for a primary residence or an investment property?

I know it's not scientific, but your 10 year cycle reference isn't far off, although it isn't destined to continue on that trend forever.... we had the early 80's, and the early to mid 90's, then once dot com stabilized the mid 2000's... we are right back there now in the mid 2010's.... wow, G, you're pretty on top of it buddy.