I will make this unequivocal prediction:
You will never buy at the low point - and you'll never sell at the highest point.
You buy when you can... and when you feel "okay" about the market. Buying is harder than selling. I "scale in"... I figure the position I want (in dollars or number of shares) and then I tip toe - then down or up - I buy more - and so on until I hit my position. Okay --- I fully get that I'm buying positions that allow me to do that. If a guy is buying 25 or 50 shares.... furgidaboudit. Just buy. If you're buying 100 shares.... buy 50 and then sit back and see how you feel about that (and all other inputs) and then buy 50 more when you're ready.
Now --- OIL is terrible.... all my oil stuff is terrible and anything related to oil is terrible. OH HELL YES I'M BUYING. As the price drops - the percentage the dividend represents goes up. The price that kept me out because the yield wasn't there - can now come in and that yield is suddenly in my range. I'm much more about the yield than I am about the few bucks the share price swing is "today - or this week". I'm going to go with my knowledge of the last 50 years that the price WILL go up over time. So the price I pay today isn't really all that important other than it makes me feel smart. What I'm really after is the yield on that particular investment. I'm a buyer in a terrible market I'm never a seller in that market.
What happens if I wait too long for just the perfect "low" -- the friggin' market snaps back on me and the next thing you know the stock I wanted to own has run away. So I just try to do the best I can over a longer period of time. Once you get your head around that kind of investing you have far less stress about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chichirone
I wonder if the past 30-180 days performance, or lack there of, leads to a buying opportunity. An example is COP. They are down 13% since Sept 15th and down nearly 20% over the past 6 months and 5% YOY. There are a number of good payers out there so does it make sense to scoop some up at a discount. The saying goes, buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying? Or is there still discounting available to stretch the investing dollar? It is a long term hold pattern for us but my curiosity is getting the best of me knowing none of us have a crystal ball to truly answer this question, but there has to be some indicators to consider a good buy.
So I guess my question really is, what is a good indicator(s) to consider to make a buy but not wait until its too late and the "opportunity" to buy at a discount has passed on bye.
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