I have really tried to avoid the discussions regarding an individual and an individuals stock picks or pans.... that's a bottomless unrewarding pit. The reason I say that is because the very nature of any "market" is that one person wants to own something and the other wants to sell - and they both may have very valid reasons that SUIT THEMSELVES AT THAT TIME. Each of us has different views of the world - have different levels of wealth - disposable income - savings needs etc. So that's a long disclaimer.
Having said all of that ---- I think you should be feeling pretty rosy TODAY having NOT sold your CASY.
Just to make this into an example... I had stated in an earlier post that the day you sell - the market will go bonkers (I didn't use those words) and it will go up. Today - for CASY is a prime example of that.
Now then -- this line of thinking, while hypothetical at best -- can get you into trouble when you really want to sell something but are afraid to pull the trigger because you're absolutely sure it will go up 15 minutes after you sell. GET OVER IT. Go back to the charts - refresh your brain looking at the SQUIGGLY line. It goes up and down like a yoyo. You'll never get it right - you can only do the best you can do at the time.
Use the squiggly line to either confirm or deny your thoughts. While it might be squiggly - is it on the general glide path UP ----- or has the line turned decidedly south and it's squiggling down. I'm talking about using the line as a general reference here. A longer term (albeit historically) view if you will.
Now -- I tend to also look at how much that line tends to "oscillate". I use that to show myself visually that perhaps this particular name (whatever that name is I'm looking at) is "volatile" if the squiggles are large... or it's a pretty steady eddy and the line has small oscillations in price. If I see this - then maybe it correlates with what's freaking me out at the time --- i.e, the stock is volatile as seen in the graph and the price fluctuation is pretty "normal" for this particular name.
Go to whatever platform you (when I say YOU -- I mean anyone reading this) and pull up a chart --- YEAR TO DATE -- and plug in GoPro (GPRO) and then add to the chart (using comparison function) Altria (MO). Keep this at Year to Date so you have a visual of the stock price movement.
I have always warned about KNOWING YOURSELF in investment. Look at the movement in GoPro vs Altria. Sure GoPro has really moved up huge since it's debut -- that's not what I'm talking about here --- What I'm talking about is COULD YOU STAND THE GIANT NASTY PRICE SWINGS.
It's easy to see that had you bought GPRO early -- you'd be way up -- but that's hindsight. Would you have been able to put your hard earned money in and then have it down 4 or 5 dollars two days later??
Okay --- I'd use this chart to help me understand that a name like GPRO is VOLATILE... and that maybe these big price swings are "normal" for a stock like that..... but looking at MO -- I see super steady -- and then if there was a big whoop-te-do downward in the chart THAT would make me nervous and I'd have to go research to see what happened because thats not normal for this name.
The short answer or reason for this post is that --- make certain you do a little "work" before you buy and before you sell. Make certain that you truly understand the particular stock you're looking at. The trend - the trend vs the market in general - the "action" of the name (big swings or steady). The reason for that is for your MENTAL STATUS because your mental status is about 90% of the battle. Panic and sell or buy too quickly without doing the right amount of work will kill your long term performance.
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Originally Posted by silvermonte
I would like to ask some theoretical questions. Lets say a year or even 2 years from now a stock has has no growth and the dividend payout has not increased at has been a low value. My money could be put to better used in a best of breed. Now assuming the company is not doing anything wonky behind closed doors, what would be a reasonable time frame for a person to wait on a stock to start doing something again?
I can use my CASY stock as an example. I bought in 2 years ago and it has had great growth and I'm well in the green on it. So if for some reason it was to just go stagnant and nothing would change for a year, how long should I wait if there is no news coming in from their side on what is going on.
That's not what is going on with this but I was just using it as an example. I could see myself saying well I've made X and if I wait a bit longer I might make more. That would be the emotional side taking over with investing. What clues should a person look for to know its time to move to greener pastures?
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