I'll show just one more example here...to help you figure this out Ben.
Here are the raw time results from our second to last event last season. Not only was this was held at Heartland Park Topeka which let the course designers setup up a much more wide open nationals style course than we see at our regular site, but it was also pretty dern cold in the morning heats and warmed up considerably in the afternoon heats.
http://www.kcrscca.org/results/solo/...vent12_raw.htm
I finished 39th out of 91 drivers that day in raw time with a lot of the drivers I beat in the last event of the year finishing ahead of me in this event. Temps, which heat you ran in and type of course were majors factors in this. Cars and drivers were basically the same. I ran in heat 1 in the cold, whereas I normally run in heat 2 which would have been a tire grip advantage on that day. Same event, I PAX'd 46th out of 91 drivers.
http://www.kcrscca.org/results/solo/...vent12_pax.htm
I still beat a 2012 GS Corvette on Hoosier A6s by 6 tenths raw time that day. Chris beat me by almost 2 seconds at our last event of the year though which is a little bit more normal.
There is no rhyme or reason, show up run, do the best you can and try to get better for the next event. It'll start to click eventually and you'll notice it when you really start to pick up your times.