Thread: Investing 102
View Single Post
  #5495  
Old 05-01-2016, 01:29 PM
Flash68's Avatar
Flash68 Flash68 is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: NorCal
Posts: 9,180
Thanks: 58
Thanked 158 Times in 104 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegas69 View Post
I'm starting to see many similarities locally that I saw just over a decade ago. While I don't see the indicators there for the same type of meltdown, I do know that things cycle and I think Spring is over and we are well into Summer, maybe even approaching Fall in the cycle.

Housing is up over 40% in less than 4 years
People are spending, spending, spending on non essentials.
The construction industry is BOOMING driving construction costs up substantially. I met with a local architect that is a real player. He said it's curtailing the commercial segment.
Low to no down payment programs are back for housing
Sloppy and new professionals are coming back into my industry
A recent Inman poll showed a majority of Americans are moderately optimistic to optimistic about the real estate market. That's a stark contrast from a short time ago.
I have a listing appointment tomorrow where the value is ABOVE the price they paid in 2005!

We are coming up on 5 years into our housing recovery. The median price of a home has stayed stagnant for 9 months with a shortage of inventory. The stock market is up there...look at its growth in the same period.

I do feel the foundation is much stronger this time around. I just think the next cycle is coming on in 1-3 years. I want to be cash heavy and debt free this time around.

What's your local economy or industry feel like?
Agree with most of your analysis here. I've been looking for add'l rental properties since I bought my last one in late 2014 but the bidding and pricing is just insane in the areas I want. But with the low fixed rates, and skyrocketing local rental rates, I am still looking for something "acceptable" to me in terms of my own analysis and requirements -- neighborhood (path of progress), tenant situation (vacant vs occupied), etc -- as my target area is about the most anti-landlord you can find. But I welcome that as it keeps most of the scaredy cats away or those unwilling to deal with that.

I know I could sell my 4 plex I bought 18 months ago for $200-300k more, but I have an incredible 30 year fixed rate so will hold it. I mean, what would I buy with the proceeds anyway?
__________________
2004 NASA AIX Mustang LS2 #14
1964 Lincoln Continental
2014 4 tap Keezer
Reply With Quote