Yep, I had similar thoughts at one time as well. While I have utilized a 1031 before, I bought this one with Camaro money.
You know how those custom projects go. They always cost more than you thought they would up front.
So I decided to utilize the primary strategy for 2 years while we build. It's worked out very well for our stage with Hugh and living simpler.
I have a very simple philosophy that has served me well so far. If a house doubles in value, I sell it. I'm glad I didn't utilize a 1031 on a number of them as I would of been forced to move up in value with poor markets on the horizon. It would've cost me far more than the 15% capital gains and I was only 2-5 years into the depreciation cycle. In fact, the 1031 I did utilize ended up costing me when I exited a market a bit late.
At this point my plan is to wait until the next recession and buy when the market is the most pessimistic. I don't mind moving in and out of markets as long term rentals mean bad tenants and major repairs at some point. Now, I only buy if the numbers make sense. I don't make the numbers work. If I get caught, I want the choice to hold long term. That's the real key to real estate investing. Can you wait until the timing is right worst case? If not, don't buy it. Unless you are a big risk taker and I'm not. I don't mind being the tortoise.