Investing 102

[GregWeld]

Just to be sure --- What I'm discussing above is more about a WAY TO THINK about prices - and when to buy and blah blah blah. The goal is important... the amount of time allotted to that goal. What is your purpose for investing. Is buying down .50 cents today more important than the long term goal?

I posted the "bull market" vs "bear market" charts to show the returns available over various periods of these kinds of markets.

Here's something that I've been shown in my own accounts time after time....


IF I'm up 100% over the last 4 year period -- and I'm now down 30% this year (example only!) -- I'm still ahead, right?

If I'm NOT in the market at the beginning of a bull market I probably lost part of that market's run. Example - if you waited until '10 to get back into the market after the '08 bear was done -- you'd have lost a huge part of the overall return. So look at it this way (made up numbers for example) --- '08 sucked you started with 100K and went down 40% - so you started '09 with a big loss and "only" had 60K invested....but since then you're UP (using the QQQ Dec 08 til today) 191%... You've made all your money back plus some! Had you sold and gone all cash and sat on your hands... you'd just have a huge loss. You'd have made .25% interest on a bank account.... versus the 4 or 5% dividend (compounded and reinvested in shares all along at cheaper prices) and blah blah blah.

Those bull / bear charts show the REMARKABLE rebound the markets make ----- and thus ---- my oft repeated the "chart is lower on the left and higher on the right". Over TIME you are rewarded. Over time - you WILL suffer pain and angst - and then be richly rewarded.

IF YOU'RE REALLY SMART -- YOU'll BUY LIKE A PIG WHEN THE MARKET IS AT IT'S WORST.... but who really does that? It's far more typical to buy when the market is doing well... regardless of whether we're buying stocks - or houses - or cars.

[CamaroMike]

Michael Lewis

[CamaroMike]

I feel more secure every time you post Greg.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by CamaroMike

Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis may have some good points with his discussion -- there's never ANYTHING wrong with putting something like this under the microscope. But his calling the market "rigged" etc -- is just book selling BS.

Anyone that knows anything about anything knows the market has always been in favor of the large institutions and funds that trade. They're the ones setting the price action. We are all just along for the ride. I'm perfectly okay with that. I never try to game what they're doing or try to get ahead of the big boys when their is possible news of a merger etc. When you try to do that - you'll get squashed. This is why I always say to just buy good stuff with a dividend and sleep well.