Investing 102

[glassman]

You've answered my question wonderfully. Precisely the answer i was looking for even when not quite asked properly. Thanx

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by glassman

You've answered my question wonderfully. Precisely the answer i was looking for even when not quite asked properly. Thanx

Good! Because I still have no F'n idea what you were asking!


LOL

[GregWeld]

I stole this directly from Motley Fool.... it states what I've tried to state here before... Predictions are a fools business. Ask Ballmer (the EX CEO of Microsoft) about what he thought and said about the iPhone. An Idiots statement.



Steve Ballmer QUOTE:
“Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan?” Ballmer chuckles in the way that only Ballmer chuckles. “That is the most expensive phone in the world. And it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine.”


You think he wishes his EX company sold anywhere near 10 million of something in a weekend??


Now for a better "quote"....


If we want to plan for the future, we must predict in some capacity. But, to extend a theme proffered in last month's introduction, how do we think about predictions in such a hard-to-predict world?

Partly, we can't: The simplest way — and, if our investing track record says anything, the most safely profitable way — is to seek stocks that require fewer predictions; companies whose pasts most tend to approximate their futures. No complicated series of contingencies needs to play out for most Income Investor stocks to succeed.

[Sieg]

As a Microsoft shareholder I was seriously upset to hear of Steve's departure.









After all, in '99 I had 80 shares @ a $93 avg cost. Look what he did for me!

Thankfully a couple splits and buying 100 shares in '13 @ $27 got me back in the green.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by Sieg

As a Microsoft shareholder I was seriously upset to hear of Steve's departure.









After all, in '99 I had 80 shares @ a $93 avg cost. Look what he did for me!

Thankfully a couple splits and buying 100 shares in '13 @ $27 got me back in the green.

The ONLY reason it's green right now is because he was replaced. I believe pushed out... because of the repeat of another OS that is needing major revision and is managing to further piss customers (enterprise customers) off. He was a failure at phones - a failure in the tablet market - and produced a series of bad software (mistakes) as well as made a fool of himself (thus the company) repeatedly.... "the monkey dance".... "Screw Janet Reno"... the iPhone comments stated earlier.

The most interesting thing I can point a person to is to go to Google Finance and pull up a chart of MSFT -- click on ALL so it shows the history of the stock dating to 1986... (My wife started there in 1984) and see the PEAK in 1999. That was when Bill Gates announced Ballmer would be CEO. It then stumbled along until they announced his departure.

Having said all of the above -- had you bought the IPO.... You'd be up 46,000 PERCENT. Every dollar you invested would now be worth $46,000. $10 (ten dollars) would be worth half a million... $1,000 would be worth 4.6 MILLION.

That story is what pushes people into IPO's to this very day. Everyone wants to be in the next MSFT.

[glassman]

my peabrain cant even comprehend 46,000%. Wow. And that was just before the time Lynch wrote "one up on wallstreet" where he was sayin "you hit true pay dirt if your stock is up ten fold". But i guess that is "tech" stocks (*that i dont know) vs stocks i do know/see/recognize (oil, consumables, entertainment )

Great stuff the last few pages.

[JasonElvisHeard]

anyone been following "blockbuster video" lately... now (ELEKTRA*:Mexico)?

I started looking into it since Feb. Although Blockbuster crumbled here in the US the last 3 quarters in 2013 it posted 118M in profit from mexico operations while under the ownership of Dish.

Since the acquisition (ELEKTRA*:Mexico) has been rising lately... this could be a possible "bagger" in the works. The first few months after the acquisition the stock fumbled a little, but now it looks like they have figured out how to capitalize on the recently acquired brand and we may see some serious earnings in the near future. It will be interesting to see the earnings after the next quarter.

I know its a random curve ball but I have been taught to look everywhere haha.

[GregWeld]

I've been poking around trying to figure out where I need to put some money to work and get some yield... which triggered something in my pea brain that might want to be brought up for this thread.

That wouldn't be the above post about some failed stock that now trades in Mexico... LOL

I like to buy on "DIPS"... and today we have a dip. Is this the dip I'm waiting for to get me excited? Just NO.... While down 200 points on the DOW seems like a "WOW"... it just isn't. It was 10 years ago --- and the number seems "large" - but it's NOT on a percentage basis. Down 200 points on the DOW is barely over 1 PERCENT.

In money -- everything is about PERCENTAGES. Doesn't matter if you make 1 dollar -- as long as that was on a 10 dollar investment - you made 10%... HUGE.... 1 Percent... come on.... 10 cents on 10 dollars. Not enough to move the needle.

So ---- While I say I'm poking around.... and I have some serious cash to put to work... I'll wait. IF the market is heading for "correction" territory... then that's in that 10% vicinity. THAT get's me excited... because it raises my yield... and it CAN snap back and recover that 10% down move - making me seem really smart... If it stays down - so what? My yield is good... I didn't pay "UP" and then have to wait for it to recover... and if it goes down beyond the 10% -- I'm a lot closer to where it goes than I am had I paid "full price". Think of it as NORDSTROM'S just did the whole store at 10% off... you'd be happy as hell to go shopping. If the 10% didn't lure you into the store -- next month they might go to 15% off.... you should be happy once more - go grab that sweater you passed on at the last trip! Now you're glad you waited. If they didn't go to 15% off ----- and they go back to full price.... it's okay - you didn't need the sweater that badly anyway. There will be more sales in the future.

That doesn't mean you should be frozen in place. YOU ARE NEVER EVER GOING TO GET THE VERY BEST PRICE - on either the buy side OR the sell side... ain't going to happen. Get over it. Buy when you're ready - start collecting those dividends and 5 years from now you'll look like the smartest guy in the entire Universe.

[JasonElvisHeard]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

That wouldn't be the above post about some failed stock that now trades in Mexico... LOL

my point was more about the unusual aspect of how markets work. What was in essence a failed stock is now posting increasing profits in a different market. If I were to say that Dish was going to take blockbuster to mexico and make over 100M in 3 quarters I'm sure you would have the same response (me too), but they did and it seems the platform is doing really well down there.

I just noticed it because it was unusual, something that failed here is growing and posting increases in revenue / profit. Only time will tell how long this can be sustained but the parent company knows the market very well along with several ideas on how to increase revenue / profit (because revenue is nothing without earnings).

I'm also not saying go and buy it now, simply pointing out that undervalued situations can pop up anywhere. Ill check it in a few months to see how things are going. It is very unusual that something can fail so bad here then come back so strong in a different market with a refined product offering.

[GregWeld]

If you read your post about this -- it sounds like a troll pump and dump. Not dissing you personally - and you make some decent points. But this is investing 102 --- which means people just getting started. There's no room for sophisticated research -- or gambling -- or foreign holdings..... this is SIMPLE investing -- dividends - some growth - safety - reliability - understanding the fundamentals. When people have 2 or 3 hundred thousand dollars in investments -- then that's a different thread... where people can stretch a bit or gamble a bit. At that level - they should be getting 10 or 15 or 20 thousand dollars a year in dividend income.... and the compounding starts to really take hold...

If you're playing with 10,000 total investable dollars -- why try to make it 2,000..... money is too hard to come by to gamble with it. That's not to say some people win the lottery.... that's not to say someone might gamble 10K and wind up with 100K... but more often than not -- that 10 becomes 2. I'm trying to get people to TRUST in the stock market and take baby steps - and get some solid rewards - and be able to live thru the ups and downs - without getting ulcers or bailing out.

Originally Posted by JasonElvisHeard

my point was more about the unusual aspect of how markets work. What was in essence a failed stock is now posting increasing profits in a different market. If I were to say that Dish was going to take blockbuster to mexico and make over 100M in 3 quarters I'm sure you would have the same response (me too), but they did and it seems the platform is doing really well down there.

I just noticed it because it was unusual, something that failed here is growing and posting increases in revenue / profit. Only time will tell how long this can be sustained but the parent company knows the market very well along with several ideas on how to increase revenue / profit (because revenue is nothing without earnings).

I'm also not saying go and buy it now, simply pointing out that undervalued situations can pop up anywhere. Ill check it in a few months to see how things are going. It is very unusual that something can fail so bad here then come back so strong in a different market with a refined product offering.