Investing 102

[GregWeld]

Interesting how much of a difference being in the "right" stock makes...


I saw that Chipotle Mexican Grille (CMG) was going to be down "pre market" about $46 bucks a share. So of course I had to go see what that was all about (I don't own it)... Seems they only grew their net income 52% for the quarter. What bums!! (being factious here).


Being the stock investigator I am... it's a habit... I always learn something snooping around. I decided to pull up their chart. Bumpy?!?!? OMG.... so real roller coaster ups and downs there to be sure... but remember the big goal? Lower on the left and higher on the right! It's UP 600% in five years. HUGE.

So I overlay McDonalds (MCD) over the chart ---- it's UP 50% in five years. Not horrible. Not the 100% in that time that many stocks are - but it always was a good steady grower. Older bigger companies don't grow as fast as smaller new companies (generally). But 50% vs 600% ----- WOW. So the point is down 50 bucks today isn't a big deal if you've owned the shares for more than about 6 months. LOL

[SSLance]

Anyone following the refinery workers strike (and it's effects on other parts of the oil market)?

My brother is in the non-destructive testing field of work, they do a ton of work for refineries. They have enacted contingency plans as a large portion of their business just stopped or is getting ready to stop completely...until this gets straightened out.

[GregWeld]

As I sit here on the balcony of my room overlooking the Pacific Ocean... and listening to the relentless pounding of the surf... Reading the latest "market news" I saw a news line about Coke (KO) raising prices - which lead to a quarterly earnings beat. Of course I had to go read this and check the price action out. A nice move today on a $42 stock. Nothing earth shaking - no doubling.. just a move in the way the surf does... a little up and little down -- the surf struck me as the way the market works. Sometimes storms make bigger moves - some days are strikingly calm... but it's always moving.

Going to KO chart -- It's UP over 60% in five years - shows a 2 for one split - pays over 3% dividend. 60% over five years is a very nice steady surf like growth in your money. What's more important is that you most likely won't wake up one morning to find half of your money gone in an instant. Very comforting... owning it won't get you bragging rights at the office water cooler... but you might retire quite nicely one day and join me on the beach. Fat and happy. LOL


Just for fun I overlayed the latest market darling.... GoPro (GPRO). No question about it -- had you bought at the IPO price... you'd have a nice QUICK gain of 38% in about a 6 month time frame.... no dividend payment... you must rely on it to continue to expand it's already lofty P/E.... If it can grow the earnings - your price will MAYBE expand. In the meantime you've been on a huge roller coaster. Nothing wrong with the roller coaster ride IF you can stomach it. That is for you and you only to know. Your time line - your confidence - your stockpile. I am not advocating either stock or either way of investing... and the best bet would be to perhaps own a little of each once you're in the comfortable position of feeling secure in your base holdings.


To be sure - my statements about what I'm doing - or my personal positions are to GOAD you all into raising your game. It is NOT bragging - nor is it meant to stick my tongue out at you. Think of it more as a build you're watching - If you're watching Stielow build his cars - you should want to emulate and learn from what he's doing. Money is the same way - or should be... but nobody ever talks about "that"! Investing is like building your skills and building a car... you learn from others - you aspire to be like that guy... or have a car like that.

[WSSix]

Good post, Greg.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by WSSix

Good post, Greg.

Thanks Trey! I'm always wondering if anyone is still reading.


Still trying to keep this "102".... and just help people to look and think about "the market" as the thoughts come into my head. What I really hope is that people that have followed along for awhile have come to view the market differently... instead of scary... it's more of an understanding of the ups and downs....

The part that still gets to me is that this whole time - the market has been the BULL (meaning going up). WE WILL eventually change to a BEAR market... and that's when I really hope people have learned not to panic sell and change their strategy. When it's all going up it's so f'n easy. It gets real hard to pile in fresh money when it's not all roses. But that is when the big money is made.

[ironworks]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Thanks Trey! I'm always wondering if anyone is still reading.

HUH.... What did you say?

[WSSix]

I read everyday. I'm just sitting back and watching my stocks at this point. I've made almost all my purchases for 2015 for my Roth. I left a little behind in case my oil stocks drop even lower. Then I can get an even better deal. I'll only give it a little more time though as I don't want to miss a dividend payment.

I'm still very torn on my MCD stock though. A big part of me says to sell but the other part says be patient. The two stocks I'm considering as replacements are capital driven instead of dividend plays. So I'm just not sure yet what I'll do.

My one oil gamble stock has gone down so much I was able to buy 50% more shares for only $100. I figure for such a little amount, I could take the risk. Sure, it may be $100 more, which is minor overall, that I lose but the reward could be so much better. I expect it to be rocky for some time but ultimately work out in the end. I may, however, sale it as soon as it goes green just to be done with it, lol. Time will tell.

Oh and the little man behind the curtain screwed me. I bought SO two hours before it crapped itself. I even waited for the Q4 2014 earnings report to see how they were doing, which was good. Then they announced the delay on the nuke plant down here and it dropped. Oh well, I own enough, and at lower prices, that the dividend makes up for the current loses from the new shares I just bought.

Thanks again, Greg