Investing 102

[WSSix]

I'm swimming in a sea of red personally. It's a little uncomfortable right now honestly. I'm glad I'm in this for the long haul though. If I had to make money on trading, I'd be so screwed. I can see why traders might have high stress levels.

[Sieg]

Originally Posted by WSSix

I'm swimming in a sea of red personally. It's a little uncomfortable right now honestly. I'm glad I'm in this for the long haul though. If I had to make money on trading, I'd be so screwed. I can see why traders might have high stress levels.

Relax......the tide goes in and out, some storms are bigger than others, and major Tsunamis are infrequent.

I hoping there's going to be a reason to go on a little 'average down' shopping spree soon....

[CRCRFT78]

So I have been trying to catch back up with this thread (on page 461) after not reading it for awhile and wanted to skip ahead and get some of your opinions on the Volkswagen debacle. I haven't had a chance to dig deep into whats going on but I did look up the stock to sort of get an idea of whats going on with it. Volkswagen AG (ADR) OTCMKTS:VLKAY the share price is at $27.10, P/E 5.64 and a Div/Yield 1.09/4.01. Now my thinking is that it has the ability to recover and have some decent growth along with the dividend payment over time and be a winner. What could I be missing or not thinking about as an investment consideration?

P.S. I hope I have the right symbol. This was just a spur of the moment look up to see what the stock was doing (besides falling).

[Vegas69]

I bet Greg will say not to catch the falling knife. It's awful early in the cycle.

I started this deal two years ago and I'm still very happy I did. I have 8.5% more dinero than I would if I left it in the bank before dividends. I got lucky with some good companies that are doing well.

I recently listened to a cd that claimed that 97% of mutual funds are outperformed by the S & P 500. Mutual funds are glorified savings accounts. I see the value of a Roth IRA or a match 401k, but mutual funds are to safe to hit a home run with.

[JKnight]

I agree with Todd on this one, falling knife analogy and all. I personally like the idea of trying to buy low during this scandal, but it's probably too early given the size of this mess. If you are going to get in on this, you're going to have to make monitoring this situation your new hobby and even then it's still a gamble.

[JKnight]

It's only one metric, but the P/E is looking pretty good relative to peers...

[SSLance]

Couple of days ago I did a little 18 month portfolio performance comparison, mine against my business partner's which is managed by a big high faluting wealth management planner.

After you take out the 1% management fee he pays, my portfolio beat his by a couple of tenths of a point...and I'm still less than 50% invested, the rest in money market cash.

You should have seen the look on his face when I shared. lol...

And that doesn't take into consideration the income tax consequences of the odd trade here and there the wealth planner did (probably to make it appear as if he knows what he is doing). And oh yeah, the fees...added up to over $45,000...so while the advisor made $45,000 managing his money, he was basically even over the last 18 months.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by JKnight

It's only one metric, but the P/E is looking pretty good relative to peers...

I ASSume you're referring to Volkswagon (VLKAY).


Investors will look at the larger picture... and decide whether or not the company as a whole - pimples and all - will be able to recover or not. The issue to me would be -- buying too early and suffering for awhile... while collecting 4%... or waiting for the turn up (if) and perhaps missing it altogether. Yesterday the stock was up $1+..... and that was UP 6.5%

I like to look at the percentages rather than the actual dollar amount.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

I bet Greg will say not to catch the falling knife. It's awful early in the cycle.

I started this deal two years ago and I'm still very happy I did. I have 8.5% more dinero than I would if I left it in the bank before dividends. I got lucky with some good companies that are doing well.

I recently listened to a cd that claimed that 97% of mutual funds are outperformed by the S & P 500. Mutual funds are glorified savings accounts. I see the value of a Roth IRA or a match 401k, but mutual funds are to safe to hit a home run with.

Now you know why I HATE Mutual Funds.... I'd only ever invest in them if they are the only thing you can get in your company matched retirement program.

Yes - Todd - It might be a bit early for Volkswagon.... but I don't think it's a falling knife. My guess is - most of the damage to the share price is probably done. It's a good company overall... and NOW has a decent dividend payout. Not great - but the 4% and the possible recovery upside is a decent "bet".

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by CRCRFT78

So I have been trying to catch back up with this thread (on page 461) after not reading it for awhile and wanted to skip ahead and get some of your opinions on the Volkswagen debacle. I haven't had a chance to dig deep into whats going on but I did look up the stock to sort of get an idea of whats going on with it. Volkswagen AG (ADR) OTCMKTS:VLKAY the share price is at $27.10, P/E 5.64 and a Div/Yield 1.09/4.01. Now my thinking is that it has the ability to recover and have some decent growth along with the dividend payment over time and be a winner. What could I be missing or not thinking about as an investment consideration?

P.S. I hope I have the right symbol. This was just a spur of the moment look up to see what the stock was doing (besides falling).

Volkswagon (VLKAY) is much more than just Volkswagen... it's Porsche - it's Bentley - Audi - Lamborghini - Bugatti - Ducati.

The 4% dividend rate is a direct result of the falling share price... My bet is that after a few heads roll -- and some fines are paid... and some fixes are done... This will have been a very good time to buy a good company. In the meantime you might feel like a dart board in a bar... but when the dust settles and things quiet down... the share price should rebound.