Investing 102

[Vegas69]

It appears the more laid back markets in the mid-west are far stronger than say Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, etc... Our prices shot up over 45% since the pandemic. When interest rates nearly doubled, affordability went to crap. In fact, the average monthly payment in the valley shot up $750 per month over night. That's a tough pill to swallow for an average buyer. I've witnessed a median priced property where the rents were $600 less per month than ownership with a minimum down payment. My research showed that our only chance was to sell to an instiitutional investor. We had virtually NO showings/interest on a median priced house in regards to a primary residence buyer. After aggressive price cuts, we did secure an institutional investor that will lease it. Many Vegas neighborhoods are dominated by hedge fund type investors.

One the high end, the absortion rate is very low. People are just throwing in the towel and withdrawing their listings. Conditioning is a factor. It's a completely different market almost overnight. That means it will take far more patience and aggressive strategies. It will take agents and sellers some time to adapt.

[BonzoHansen]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

It appears the more laid back markets in the mid-west are far stronger than say Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, etc... Our prices shot up over 45% since the pandemic. When interest rates nearly doubled, affordability went to crap. In fact, the average monthly payment in the valley shot up $750 per month over night. That's a tough pill to swallow for an average buyer. I've witnessed a median priced property where the rents were $600 less per month than ownership with a minimum down payment. My research showed that our only chance was to sell to an instiitutional investor. We had virtually NO showings/interest on a median priced house in regards to a primary residence buyer. After aggressive price cuts, we did secure an institutional investor that will lease it. Many Vegas neighborhoods are dominated by hedge fund type investors.

One the high end, the absortion rate is very low. People are just throwing in the towel and withdrawing their listings. Conditioning is a factor. It's a completely different market almost overnight. That means it will take far more patience and aggressive strategies. It will take agents and sellers some time to adapt.

As a local in the know, do you think the constant national level news of water issues, lake mead, etc., are impacting the vegas & area (maybe all SW?) markets, especially relocations?

[Vegas69]

I think it's starting to have an effect. Our population shrunk last year by about 2%. That's the first time we've lost population in 50 years I believe. I plan to leave here in 18 months and it's a factor in the decision. Have I had a client leave in 22 years due to the water? Not directly. I think it's a factor now and it will become more imposing if mother nature's path continues on the track it's on currently. The lake was nearly full 22 years ago. That's not really that long ago, but the SW has grown substantially in that time. Vegas is first in line and we have a 3rd intake near the bottom of the lake. Even if the lake gets to dead pool which means the river will stop in Lake Mead, supposedly we'll still have water. We only take about 5-10% as it is. I sincerely hope mother nature changes her tune and it never gets that severe as it will devastate the SW. Especially AZ, CA, and Mexico. There needs to be stricter measures in my opinion. Outlaw grass and pools at least for a while. The pool contractors here are so busy you wouldn't believe it. Imagine the amount of water it takes to fill a pool and replace evaporation. Grass needs to be watered 15 minutes a day, 7 days a week to have a chance to keep it alive in the hot months. There are so many things that can be done, but I don't think it will change until it gets really bad. That's seems to be the human way. I don't plan to stick around to see how it plays out.

[WSSix]

Where are you planning to go, if you don't mind me asking, Todd?

I've have to agree with you about the pools and grass. You're literally in a desert. It's amazing to me the number of pools people have in Florida. Florida has sink hole issues in certain parts specifically because they've been dropping the water table so much.

[Vegas69]

God willing, Spearfish South Dakota. We've loved it for almost 20 years. It's a thriving ecosystem with great people and a small town feel, but with reasonable convenience. The Black Hills is really a paradise. Ponderosa pines, prairies, streams, lakes, trails, and low humidity due to the elevation. Clearly they have some serious weather with snow and hail, etc, but we're ready for the seasons. All this sun is getting old. LOL I'm hoping for 5+ acres and a large detached shop.

[dhutton]

I’ve read a couple of times that Duluth Minnesota is the place to head to escape climate change, assuming you believe in it, but damn that is a cold place in the winter.

Don

[WSSix]

Sounds lovely, Todd. I haven't been to S Dakota but hope to some day. Best of luck on getting there and dealing with the winters.

Don, I was in Grand Rapids, MN three years ago during January or February. I was testing a new installation. It was -30*F so we were able to do cold start testing by just leaving the machine outside overnight, lol. It's a dry cold but everything is covered in ice and snow for months.

[srode1]

Originally Posted by dhutton

I’ve read a couple of times that Duluth Minnesota is the place to head to escape climate change, assuming you believe in it, but damn that is a cold place in the winter.

Don

I just went through Duluth on my way to the Boundary Waters for a Scout canoe trip for a week. No disrespect tot he hearty soles who live there, but I would rather deal with any climate change coming than live there in the Winter. I'd bet they would enjoy a bit of global warming that time of year.

On the green topic, it will be interesting to see how the new bill that just passed the Senate impacts large company profits, the market, inflation and the US economy. I have only heard what is in the news which I'm sure is largely biased both ways depending on who the source is. I'm not optimistic but time will tell.