How much is $17 trillion? Visualized for reference.

[camcojb]

Originally Posted by parsonsj

Here's the problem with disputing the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The same people tell us about the deficit. Here we are discussing the overall Federal budget deficit ($14T or so today), and how do we know that number? Because the Federal government publishes it. We all believe that number. So why don't we believe the inflation numbers published by the Federal government? Why don't we believe the unemployment numbers published by the Federal government? I find this strange, and it's really inhibiting a good discussion.

because it's easy to see things that make us believe the government numbers are heavily massaged. With the deficit, we can't really see that, have to take their word for it. With unemployment, we know they don't count so many people for so many reasons that the stated number is BS. U6 unemployment is somewhat accurate at least, but they don't talk about that one because it looks really bad. The government likes to quote the much more optimistic figure that doesn't count people who lose their benefits or have given up trying (even though they are all unemployed), that doesn't count underemployed, etc. As far as inflation, I think they should include food, etc. in those figures, because they are a required part of life, and there is no doubt that section is going up WAY more than the governments quoted figures.

[parsonsj]

Originally Posted by Jody

As far as inflation, I think they should include food, etc. in those figures, because they are a required part of life, and there is no doubt that section is going up WAY more than the governments quoted figures.

That number is available, and from the same source, and is called "headline inflation" or Consumer Price Index (CPI). Last month that number was 1.66% -- even lower than core inflation. Why? Probably mostly due to falling oil prices. Next month that number is probably going to go up. Why? Probably due to drought conditions over much of the US.

Core inflation is used by economists and policy-makers because it's not subject to these quickly changing conditions, but still reflects longer-term trends. It's the same reason that retail sales figures are trended with seasonal adjustments, or moving averages, etc., etc. It's not dishonest, or meant to obfuscate, but rather to allow good decision-making based on things that don't change quickly. Over time, CPI and core inflation are within error bars of each other.

We can talk about any of these numbers, but it's not a serious discussion when we take the government's word for one number (deficit), but not another (inflation or unemployment).

[camcojb]

Originally Posted by parsonsj

That number is available, and from the same source, and is called "headline inflation" or Consumer Price Index (CPI). Last month that number was 1.66% -- even lower than core inflation. Why? Probably most due to falling oil prices. Next month that number is probably going to go up. Why? Probably due to drought conditions over much of the US. Core inflation is used by economists and policy-makers because it's not subject to these quickly changing conditions, but still reflects longer-term trends.

We can talk about any of these numbers, but it's not a serious discussion when we do take the government's word for one number (deficit), but not another (inflation or unemployment).

ok, I'll go a step further. I'm self-employed for the last 25 years. My supplies, from electrical to construction, to cleaning have all jumped way more than 2-3% from now to last year, and from then to the year before. I just looked online at some of my bulb pricing. These are USA made products.

MH70med up 23% from 7/2010 to 7/2012.
MH400 up 20% same time period
MH100med up 22% same time period

And on and on. These are the exact same pieces from the exact same manufacturer. Same with other supplies............. garbage bags from Costco, up almost 20% in the last 18 months. Window cleaner, up just over 20%............

The bottom line for me is my checkbook tells me their inflation numbers are not real, and you couple that with the advantage for them to under-report them, or manipulate them to make things look better, and I'm just not going to buy it. Don't care to argue the deficit number, other than it's growing too fast at this point.

[Bucketlist2012]

Originally Posted by parsonsj

Here's the problem with disputing the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The same people tell us about the deficit. Here we are discussing the overall Federal budget deficit ($14T or so today), and how do we know that number? Because the Federal government publishes it. We all believe that number. So why don't we believe the inflation numbers published by the Federal government? Why don't we believe the unemployment numbers published by the Federal government? I find this strange, and it's really inhibiting a good discussion.

Actually I think the Debt is even higher than they say it is...So no , I don't believe the debt number, it is worse than they are saying. Kinda blows your argument up, eh ?

Never are the "facts" you so much believe, ever lower than reported. They are always higher.

Inflation, Budgets, Debt numbers, Unemployment figures. Always end up higher, and never lower than they report..These are manipulated figures.

I find it strange that you so hold onto what you call "facts", when we in the real world see the increases for ourselves..Those are the facts. What is happening in the Real world.

So you can keep believing and posting your "facts", but the real world tells us differently. So therefore I believe you are just mistaken.

Very impossible to believe your argument, unless I am on your side of the agenda...Where I sit, the costs are up and the debt is way too high.

So I just humbly feel your confusion is just based on an agenda and not reality. Numbers lie...And always to the worse side of the equation.NEVER to the benefit of the people..

[parsonsj]

Jody, please understand that I'm not trying to claim that your costs aren't going up. I am claiming that the BLS numbers are real, and that US policy should be based on the BLS numbers.

If your argument is that the US government is deliberately fudging the numbers and lying to the population, then my question is simply this: why wouldn't the US government do the same thing with the deficit numbers?

[Tony_SS]

Originally Posted by parsonsj

Here's the problem with disputing the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The same people tell us about the deficit. Here we are discussing the overall Federal budget deficit ($14T or so today), and how do we know that number? Because the Federal government publishes it. We all believe that number. So why don't we believe the inflation numbers published by the Federal government? Why don't we believe the unemployment numbers published by the Federal government? I find this strange, and it's really inhibiting a good discussion.

John, I think you might be confused. The deficit is the amount of money lost for the fiscal year. The debt is the total amount owed by the govt. The deficit is added to the debt every year.

The last 5 fiscal years, our govt has run over 1 Trillion dollar deficits. Right now our total debt is over 17 Trillion, not 14 Trillion. So we add over a trillion dollars to our debt each year... What could go wrong?

As for the deficit and debt numbers being accurate, it's really a red herring in this discussion. We know the unemployment and inflation numbers are skewed to their benefit, there's good reason to question the deficit and debt numbers too.

Generally speaking, I'm not sure why some people have such a hard time trusting corporations, yet they automatically believe any govt numbers are true and honest.

[parsonsj]

Originally Posted by Mike

I don't believe the debt number, it is worse than they are saying. Kinda blows your argument up, eh ?

You bet. Nicely done.

[Bucketlist2012]

Plain and Simple.

Further printing of money is not going to help company's earnings rise, it is not going to help profit margins expand further, it is not going to help GDP expand, it is not going to help global exports volumes increase, it is not going to help the unemployment fall, it is not going to help Greece from eventually defaulting and it is not going to help Spain with it's borrowing costs.

Printing money will only make prices of food, energy, and metals rise dramatically.

Those are the facts, and personally I don't mind if people don't believe it..They do so blindly, and with an agenda that is not fact based. I won't argue the points, because you cannot argue someone right.. They have chosen their "facts" or agenda, and they are sticking with it..

I choose to base my decisions on the facts of the reality of the situation. And although i find it strange that some people will never see it, much of life is strange, so I do my research, and choose my path...Others can decide for them selves..

[parsonsj]

Originally Posted by Tony

John, I think you might be confused. The deficit is the amount of money lost for the fiscal year. The debt is the total amount owed by the govt. The deficit is added to the debt every year.

Not confused. Just a little sloppy with the words. My apologies, and I've fixed my post.

[Tony_SS]

Originally Posted by parsonsj

Jody, please understand that I'm not trying to claim that your costs aren't going up. I am claiming that the BLS numbers are real, and that US policy should be based on the BLS numbers.

If your argument is that the US government is deliberately fudging the numbers and lying to the population, then my question is simply this: why wouldn't the US government do the same thing with the deficit numbers?

The policy is based on the numbers they fudge.

And most likely the govt does do the same thing with debt and deficit numbers.. I don't think anyone is disputing that.

The Pentagon can not account for 25% of what it spends. In 2001 our own Sec of Def admitted that they could not account for 2 trillion dollars. That's pretty good evidence they aren't too good with their books in any area.