Investing 102

[68ZClone]

I've not posted on this thread, but have been reading with much interest. Thanks to you all for your candid conversation regarding sound investments! I've certainly learned a lot.

I was looking through my portfolio this morning and noticed MCD gave me a 10% raise last week by increasing the quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.77!

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by 68ZClone

I've not posted on this thread, but have been reading with much interest. Thanks to you all for your candid conversation regarding sound investments! I've certainly learned a lot.

I was looking through my portfolio this morning and noticed MCD gave me a 10% raise last week by increasing the quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.77!

WELCOME!!

Hey -- Mickie D's is better to you than your boss!!!!

[96z28ss]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

WELCOME!!

Hey -- Mickie D's is better to you than your boss!!!!

Oh yeah PM, MO, MCD, they all recently gave better raises than an employeer.

[Flash68]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Prepare to be underwhelmed.... I'm not a very exciting guy.

You got that right.

[bdahlg68]

I picked up another 30 shares of ED today (don't laugh Greg!, I'm working up to bigger slugs ). Looked on sale to me down 10%'ish in the last 2-3 months. Plus yield at 4% is hard to pass up with the current uncertainty level. I also added some MCD a week ago given the dividend bump. To balance these steadies I added to my speculative CYOU position as well yesterday. Going to trim back on NLY and MMT positions shortly to free up some funds for future sales. Both NLY and MMT have done well for me but it may be time to reduce those positions for the time being. I currently have 14 differnt stocks in my portfolio. I may trim that back for the next month or so depending on how things go. Always looking for bargains on the best!

[GregWeld]

Brian -- As long as you're thinking and paying attention.... that's the number 1 thing I'm pushing here... So good for you.

[bdahlg68]

I don't feel like I'm playing with chump change, just no where near your league. But, only 32 1/2 years old so you've given me a goal and a path - and for that I'm extremely appreciative.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by bdahlg68

I don't feel like I'm playing with chump change, just no where near your league. But, only 32 1/2 years old so you've given me a goal and a path - and for that I'm extremely appreciative.

Well - unlike the cars posted on Lat G -- this is really a very uncompetitive thread! I know how fortunate I am and have been.... thus part of the reason for trying to spread the word and help others have some of that same luck if at all possible!

I wasn't born with a silver spoon - I worked my butt off - as has my darling bride. We've just been a heck of a lot luckier than most - and many that I'm positive have worked longer and harder.

Keep at it - and when you're my age - you'll be coaching others to follow what you've done!

[GregWeld]

I woke this morning -- and the market is "down" -- let's not forget this is a PERCENTAGE game.... down a hundred points is a real ho hummer anymore... as is UP a hundred.


I immediately began to worry that you all would go back and read my "on sale - put your thinking caps on" post a couple posts ago... and think "oh hell - I'm not ready and I'm going to miss out... such and such is down 50 cents!"


NO! That is not the kind of preparation and thinking I was trying to portray.


I'm talking BIG on sale.... of real stuff.... on stocks you may already own or are on your list. We're not day trading here. We're investing.

Do your thinking in percentages.... AAPL off $5 is hardly a screaming buy...

We're talking long term investing -- and just how to think about what you're doing over that long term. SO lets say it takes you a year to save $2500 for your stock purchases... and during that year you've watched the market sinking... and here you are - ready to buy - and the market is poopie... and you're getting cold feet. This is when you have to say to yourself -- "X" company is still a good company - they're still paying "X" dividend -- there is not company specific horrible news... the market is down and so are they. Period. That is when you need to buy not turn away. Put your money in -- you just got a great opportunity. Go look at a long term chart and look at how many times things were down -- stair stepped -- a "swale" in the chart... but more importantly look at where it went AFTER that... had you been LUCKY ENOUGH to have bought then - where would you be now?

I'm NOT saying that the minute McDonalds drops $2 you should run out and hawk the house and back the truck up and fill it with MCD shares. And you certainly wouldn't buy a stock that is DOWN 10% in an up market -- unless you're doing a bunch of work to figure out WHY it's down when everything else is up! Or thinking that because Faceybook is down 50% it must be "on sale" therefore a great stock to buy "because it's going to come back". NO! Please -- that's not what I meant!

[GregWeld]

We don't want to be discussing individual recommendations to buy or sell companies -- we want to keep this thread about investments in general... and use various real life companies for discussion purposes and examples...

SO with this "view" in mind....


I've updated my Apple (AAPL) iPhone to the new iOS6.... the one you may have heard about with the messed up Map app. I shrugged this map debacle off.... but it is something that I use ALL THE TIME....


Adrienne (daughter) was in Chandler yesterday trying to find where the new rig is -- it's at a well known address -- it's Freightliner of Chandler - it's right on the I-10 freeway... but is a weird set of streets to get there.... HER iPhone can not find the place so she's calling me.... Mine won't find it either and I had actually put the street address in!! OMG are you kidding me!

Okay -- so this isn't really a big deal right? Well --- it could be as far as the STOCK is concerned... because this is making all the news headlines and it's all you hear about from the talking heads etc on TV.... So why would it be important to the stock? Again just using this as a POSSIBLE EXAMPLE....

Apples stock has been on a tear -- it's really been meteoric.... and it's "priced for perfection"... which means any little hiccup in sales or gross revenue or by any other "metric" it has to OUTPERFORM the expectations.

Now -- they've only shipped a few million of these - into an installed base of a half a gazillion or whatever number it is... but and here's the big BUTT -- what if this gives consumers "pause" -- maybe just a pause on buying a $600 phone waiting for the company to come out with a fix - or perhaps they - after having had several versions of the iPhone - decide to actually take a look at the Android versions -- or whatever.... Maybe just 5% of people do this and Apple's sales numbers miss the "expectations". BAM! Ya get hammered. And you get hammered over night... and sometimes then, this causes a great run to finally "break" because people with HUGE profits decide to start selling to lock in a profit... they get "nervous"... their selling causes more selling...

Remember that to make an UP market -- you need MORE buyers than sellers... and when you have more sellers than buyers - things go DOWN not up.

You want to see this in real life -- pull up an "ALL" chart of Microsoft (MSFT).... the peak is December 1999 (the actual month they announced Steve bonehead Ballmer was going to be the new President) -- this chart looks like a MOUNTAIN -- a long slope up -- a nice (huge) peak -- and a long slope down.... More SELLERS than BUYERS.

What I'm really talking about here is what you hear all the time - IS THERE A "FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE" in the business? Is there a "consumer sentiment" change?

I'm not saying there is - or is going to be - or anything like that --- What I'm saying is ----- Lets watch and see 'cause it might be a great learning experience. For the market, I hope this doesn't happen... but I'm keeping my eyes and ears open, and if my friends start talking about maybe looking at a different phone "this time" --- or if they're saying they're "fine with the phone I have".... DUDE! I'm paying attention to that!

All of you are very intelligent -- and now what you need to LEARN is how to use what you know - put that into an understanding of how to be "ahead" of the market - or how to "spot a trend".... without even thinking about it - you may have done this in the past. Now start to think about how it could possibly affect your investments.

I'm not talking about being SPECULATORS here -- I talking about just good old fashioned basics.

When you go to Home Depot - are they busy? Or have you begun to see empty stores...

Are your friends all buying new cars and trucks? Or not....

Are you being asked to work overtime? Are they hiring or laying off...

Is the restaurant you go to all the time packed? Or are you going there less and nobody talks about the place anymore...

Put your eyes in and your thinking cap on and start to look at this "basic info"
and how you could be ahead of the market - or maybe not buy that sector in the market - or is there some investable play here?