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Originally Posted by sik68
Speaking of profit-taking...
Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) was a stock I've owned for a while now, but didn't really know WHY other than I read some articles a while back. I don't follow the industry, don't know the company, doesn't pay a dividend, and and it's not one of those companies that makes enough headlines to keep track of it easily.
The price skyrocketed in the last 3 months, so I sold out Tuesday after a 62% gain. More importantly I learned 3 things:
1) Don't be greedy
2) This was luck, and for every stock that I rely on luck to make me money, I will be AT least as unlucky for another stock.
3) I freed up money to invest in a 'steady eddy.'
It felt really good to learn a lesson and make money at the same time. I am seeing more and more that knowledge of a company is more valuable to my sanity than the share price. I rest easier knowing that I reduced my exposure to what I don't know, if that makes sense.
Greg, do you you think a young guy like me (29) should take an interest learning to "scale in and out" of the market? My sentiment is that this recent run may be a good time to see what scaling out (say 30% out) of my mutual funds can do, but remain all-in on my steady-eddy dividend stocks. My reason is, with all my money tied up now, I don't have any for periods when the market "goes on sale." Timing the market is bad I know, but I think I need some on the sidelines if I ever want to take advantage of a market on sale. Am I being logical? Thanks!!
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Number ONE!!
Good for you for learning. Knowing what and why you own something is CRITICAL to being a decent INVESTOR.... and that's why I preach to know and understand what you own. It really really helps when the market SUCKS.... Nobody cares what they own when the market is hot -- but it's invaluable when you're dying the death of a 1000 cuts!
Number TWO...
Scaling in and out is not a good thing in the way you're "thinking". You'll be out when it goes up and you'll be in when it sucks and so on...
Scaling in and out is more about MENTALLY doing a checks and balances --- i.e., If you plan to invest 5,000 dollars --- or you intend to buy 1000 shares of something. It FEELS better to buy HALF.... and wait... watch - learn - is the stock doing what you thought or did you jump before you really did your homework etc. So give it a FULL quarter.... then buy another quarter.... OR maybe you made a mistake on the intial buy -- and lucky you! You only put in half!
It's a thing so you don't end up with buyers remorse. Same way selling. You can get sellers remorse... 'cause just after you sold half -- the SOB shoots up $3 a share on a better profit report (or something - whatever).
NOW ---- If you have no NEW MONEY -- then you just need to SAVE that new money.... so that your new money is actually new money - not the same money you already had invested. Selling to buy something else is EMPLOYEE RETRAINING - but you still have the same amount of employees! You need NEW employees.
This - of course... is in ADDITION to repositioning because you have a big loser --- or because a stock you owned doubled or something -- and you're just retraining. But you don't want to sell one stock just because it's going up to buy something else you think MIGHT go up. Do that with new money.
AND --- if you're a real investor -- stay 100% invested with all your long term funds. When the stocks go DOWN -- your dividends will be buying you more shares at lower prices -- but if you don't own the stocks - you won't get the dividends! Your dividends being reinvested for you each quarter is also an automatic scale in.