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  #2871  
Old 05-12-2013, 12:53 PM
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This news article was posted on NBC news.com today....

The real points of posting this kind of stuff is more just to say -- the minute you think you know what's going to happen... it won't happen that way. Thus -- market timing does not work. It's only useful information in a hindsight kind of way.

The part I like about everyone hollering about a "new record high" --- is that -- when you think about it -- there's zillions of new market record highs - otherwise we couldn't have gotten to this latest one! So really - a new record high is nothing more than just another day. I pay NO ATTENTION to the talking heads that pronounce that because we're in record territory -- that something must happen to knock us out of it. Maybe... maybe not... when? Who knows.... but if you go back and do a chart of the DOW --- it's not a straight line higher -- but it is (obviously) higher over a long period of time. Are there periods when it SUCKED --- oh yeah... but the chart is far higher on the right than it is on the left -- including the Great Depression which is a horrible dip down.


http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/hi.../djia1900.html






Stocks: 'Sell in May and go away?' Not this year


REUTERS


A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange.
NEW YORK -- With the Dow and the S&P 500 setting another string of record closing highs this week, the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Go Away" is starting to look weak.

Closing out the second week of May, the Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 2.3 percent for the month.

For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a stunning 14.6 percent.

Some analysts say that when the market starts off this strong, it tends to keep the upward momentum going until the end of the year.

"Instead of 'Sell in May and Go Away,' we may be setting up for a surprise May rally," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.

"What's encouraging is that small-cap stocks have been outperforming the market recently. It's a sign that the market is going for even the riskiest sectors."

Both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 topped major milestones for the first time in early May, with the Dow Jones industrial average surpassing 15,000 and the S&P 500 breaking through the 1,600 mark. Since then, the indexes have been steadily holding above the landmark levels. The Nasdaq Composite Index has climbed to the highest closing levels in 12-1/2 years.

In a sign of the rally's breadth, the Russell 2000 index of mid- and small-cap stocks also hit all-time highs recently.

Technical analysts say the next level to watch would be 1,660 on the S&P 500.

"The main question is whether the bulls can maintain the 1,600 level on the S&P 500 for another week," said Ari Wald, technical analyst at PrinceRidge Group, a New York-based investment bank.

"If it does, the next level is 1,660. But with markets already this high, it won't be easy."

Despite lingering concerns about a technical pullback, the market's strong performance so far this year has also increased the chances of equities rallying throughout the year, according to some analysts.

"With the market up so much, can it continue to make gains over the next seven months through year end? At least based on history, it has a better chance of continuing higher during strong years than when it is not up significantly," Bespoke Investment Group analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Bespoke noted that this year is only the 11th-best start to a year since 1991, when the index gained another 9.7 percent for the rest of the year.

If 2013 plays out like that -- with another 9.7 percent gain in store for the S&P 500 -- the broad index would finish the year up a whopping 24.3 percent.

Laggards play catch-up
Among recent gainers, sectors closely tied to economic growth such as technology and financial stocks have been catching up after lagging for most of the year.

"We are seeing the once beaten-down stocks making a comeback," Wald said. "It's been sort of a rotation of leadership that has been taking place for a month or so. It will be interesting to see if this can last" into next week.

The S&P financial sector index is up about 2 percent for the month, while the S&P information technology sector is up about 3 percent.

For some perspective, the tech sector has a way to go, when compared with defensive sectors like utilities. The S&P utility sector index is up more than 13 percent for the year, while the S&P info tech sector index is up less than 8 percent.

Consumer in the driver's seat
The American consumer will get Wall Street's attention next week when a raft of economic data and retailers' earnings could shed some light on whether they shopped for more than just the bare necessities.

Retail sales for April will be released on Monday by the U.S. Commerce Department.

"It (retail sales) will be a chance to look at the real picture after weak numbers last month on sequestration and other (external) factors," said Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist at ING U.S. Investment Management in New York.

"The market is driven by good fundamentals from corporate earnings, but it's really the consumers that take up 70 percent of our economy. They are a real game changer."

Other economic data on tap includes April import and export prices on Tuesday, followed on Wednesday by the U.S. Producer Price Index for April, the Empire State Index for May, industrial production and capacity utilization for April, and the National Association of Home Builders Index for May.

On Thursday, the economic agenda includes the U.S. Consumer Price index for April, housing starts for April, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed's survey for May.

Wall Street will get a look at consumer sentiment on Friday, when the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers will release its preliminary reading for May.

On the earnings front, a number of retailers are scheduled to report results, including Macy's on Wednesday. Results from J.C. Penney, Nordstrom, Kohl's and Wal-Mart are expected on Thursday.

With 89 percent of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings so far, 66.7 percent have topped profit expectations, above the average of 63 percent since 1994. However, only 46.4 percent have beaten revenue expectations, well under the average of 62 percent since 2002.
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  #2872  
Old 05-12-2013, 08:41 PM
WSSix WSSix is offline
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My OXY stock is at a record high too! It's only down $400 now. It was much lower.

I do wonder though, how much all this talk about what's supposedly going to happen, even though no one really knows, affects the market. While I'm in this for the long run and don't care about record highs either, I can't help but think if people would just chill and let it ride, the ups and downs might not be so bad. Maybe I'm too much of a cynic or just don't bother to count my chickens until they hatch though.

Regardless, my choices aren't doing bad and I'm happy to see the NYSE up. I'll update soon as it's been a year since I started all this and I'd like to see how I'm doing compared to my other accounts that are controlled by the pros.
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  #2873  
Old 05-13-2013, 01:04 AM
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Trey ---


If you own 10 stocks -- 5 can be doing well -- 2 are doing fantastic -- 2 are break even -- and ONE can ruin your performance!


About the time you sell the loser.... it takes off straight for the moon and runs 10 points. Then something else sucks -- and something else goes even. It's just that way. We can never have 10 out of 10 going gangbusters.

I hope that at the end of the year period - you're up 11% or so in capital -- and have gotten a pretty good 4 or 5% cash return in dividends.


That doesn't seem like much -- but the 10 year treasury is still at 1.66% !
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  #2874  
Old 05-13-2013, 12:43 PM
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Greg's last post just exploded my head...LOL
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  #2875  
Old 05-13-2013, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RECOVERY ROOM View Post
Greg's last post just exploded my head...LOL


That was pretty easily done.....
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  #2876  
Old 05-14-2013, 01:19 PM
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  #2877  
Old 05-15-2013, 10:53 AM
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This market has just been fantastic ---- and every time I look at some name to check relative performance -- I'm blown away.


Coke (KO) a certain "steady eddy" -- is UP 17% Year to date...


Altria -- (MO) -- is up 18%


Con Ed -- (ED) -- is up 11%


I'm just tossing these out there because they're the "BORING" low paying dividend names we've talked about many times. Folks! Hello! That is some amazing capital growth given we're only 5 months into the year!


Something else I've tried to get folks to understand - or at least be aware of -- is that let's say we have a "healthy" pullback... 10% or so.... if we do? We're still going to be UP. Gotta love that kind of market.
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  #2878  
Old 05-15-2013, 11:41 AM
toy71camaro toy71camaro is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregWeld View Post
This market has just been fantastic ---- and every time I look at some name to check relative performance -- I'm blown away.


Coke (KO) a certain "steady eddy" -- is UP 17% Year to date...


Altria -- (MO) -- is up 18%


Con Ed -- (ED) -- is up 11%


I'm just tossing these out there because they're the "BORING" low paying dividend names we've talked about many times. Folks! Hello! That is some amazing capital growth given we're only 5 months into the year!


Something else I've tried to get folks to understand - or at least be aware of -- is that let's say we have a "healthy" pullback... 10% or so.... if we do? We're still going to be UP. Gotta love that kind of market.
Are you spying on my portfolio?? lol. I have all 3 of those.. I'm not complainin one bit.

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  #2879  
Old 05-15-2013, 11:44 AM
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You're the main event Albert!!!





How about Kinder Morgan Parners (KMP) ---- PAYS $1.30 dividend today --- and on top of that is UP a buck today as well!!!


Amazing market folks! Just amazing! Enjoy it while it lasts.... 'cause this is one of the best I've seen and I've been doing this (investing) for 30 years.
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  #2880  
Old 05-15-2013, 11:51 AM
toy71camaro toy71camaro is offline
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The "big one" for me has been KMB... up 23.96 YTD. Plus their 3.08% Divvy (which is actually 4.09% YOC for me)...

Although, its all paper gains right now. its neat. I am waiting for a pullback, so my divvy payments can buy more shares on sale. LOL. But, pushing ahead like this isnt bad either.

I've got 30+ years before i need to (or can) touch it.
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