Investing 102

[SSLance]

I've enjoyed reading comments from both sides of the GPRO camp, and there are two distinct different sides for sure.

I like the product and think they have the best thing out there...right now, but Greg is right in thinking that someone else may come along and make a better product eventually. To me this is about the difference between getting paid back for prior success vs continuing to create new success. None of us have any idea exactly how GPRO is going to be going forward...that is the gamble.

Now, there is also another factor in this...and this has been my bugaboo with the stock market as a whole for a long time now. Success as a company is one thing, success in keeping the company's share price high is completely different. If the naysayers of GPRO are eventually successful, Mr Market can tank the stock regardless of whether the company can stand on it's own two feet or not. This is where the CEO has to stop working in the company and start working "On" the company. He has to make the rounds both on the air and in private and keep on convincing the institutions that GPRO is a worthwhile investment. So far, I'm not sure he has been successful at this, maybe he can learn on the fly though.

[toy71camaro]

All good points about GPRO. Honestly, I was already in the thought process where Greg was when I heard about them going public... My first thought was "someone hasn't challenged them and made something better by now?"

I dont own one. I know a few people that do. Im a techie so I do hear a lot about them. But really, I never understood the hype. They're a small video camera with a whole bunch of different mounts. Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

[CamaroMike]

Originally Posted by toy71camaro

Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

Hmmm maybe I will!

[SSLance]

Originally Posted by toy71camaro

All good points about GPRO. Honestly, I was already in the thought process where Greg was when I heard about them going public... My first thought was "someone hasn't challenged them and made something better by now?"

I dont own one. I know a few people that do. Im a techie so I do hear a lot about them. But really, I never understood the hype. They're a small video camera with a whole bunch of different mounts. Why hasn't someone came along and stole the thunder yet. lol And I think its just a matter of time before someone does.

I learned something yesterday I was unaware of...

While making money off content may be a logical next step, thus far GoPro has been successful because it sells novel hardware. Much of what has made the company successful is the technology inside its cameras. GoPro makes light mountable cameras which feature high quality components from Sony (SNE), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Ambarella (AMBA). Qualcomm and other semiconductor companies like Intel (INTC) and Micron Technology (MU) have been on fire lately.

Ambarella has largely been flying under the financial media's radar, despite the company's meteoric rise. Ambarella makes the internal memory chip which allows GoPro to record HD video. Ambarella's chips can also be found in DropCamera products. DropCamera was acquired by Google's (GOOG) (GOOGL) Nest Labs a few days ago for $555 million. Shares of Ambarella have experienced heavy volatility since January, but the company has beaten every earnings consensus and the stock has climbed 169% since the start of 2013. In GoPro's S-1 filing the action camcorder company basically admitted that it had no alternative to using Ambarella's chips.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2287...-ought-to-know

I've seen videos from just about all of the other cameras currently in the market and none of them can hold a candle to GoPro's video quality (as of yet). Their small size, virtual indestructibility, and mounting versatility are also above and beyond the rest. That's why they have the market's interest and the aftermarket as well (other companies making accessories for GoPros).

It'll be fun to watch what they do from here, I'll be watching from the sidelines though.

[Sieg]

GoPro is interesting. I've owned every one of their models and had some very negative experiences due to performance shortcomings associated with product engineering. As for warranty support, they're quite evasive.

GoPro is as much marketing company as it is a video camera company. Their marketing is better than the camera even though the images the camera can capture are sometimes spectacular. That works with today's consumer.

I don't know actual numbers but I'd speculate that GoPro's market share is greater than Apple's iPhone. GoPro's market penetration is pretty impressive as is their client list.

Many think the iPhone is the ultimate, but to myself they have numerous performance shortcomings and are extremely over priced compared to their competition yet they sell like hotcakes and every up and coming consumer wants one. I imagine similar can be said for GoPro. Both companies have substantial global recognition.

It will be interesting to watch the stock performance.....so far it's a flatliner. Considering the market conditions since IPO flat isn't that bad........IMO.

[GregWeld]

GoPro (GPRO) is running like the IPO's of 1998/99.... and it's interesting that the "market" is so hot on what (on the surface) is a one trick pony. I'm saying that because basically they just have ONE camera. At this point we don't know if it's just the latest "trader" darling - or if there's real intrinsic value that is yet to be discovered.

Here's the 102 version of this:


MANY IPO's come out and all the TV talking heads can do is discuss it -- and the stock flies -- for awhile.... then the next big IPO comes out - and the old one stalls out and the new one is all they can talk about.

Make CERTAIN that if you choose to invest in these IPO's - that it's play money. And make certain you're investing in the COMPANY and not just your personal love for a product. There's a difference... and in order to hold long term - you must understand the company and whether or not they can make money. In the longer run - the market will only reward "making money" because their love of the hype is pretty short lived.

Obviously there's many more people that want to own this company right now and it's painful to watch it run and not be in it. It's what people wanted out of Twitter and FaceBook.... it's fun when they go straight up.

What happens is that you missed this one -- so the next one you're NOT MISSING IT NO MATTER WHAT.... and that's the trap. The mind screams at you that you missed a double on "X" and by god you're not going to do that again. Be careful of that thinking

If a STOCK (not a company) is going to double and triple.... while you might not have gotten in at the bottom -- there's still plenty of time to watch and learn and get in and make 30% or 40% somewhere along the line. Sometimes that's far better than LOSING 30% when the air comes out.

[SSLance]

or 60%... or worse...

Good advice as always Greg...

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by SSLance

or 60%... or worse...

Good advice as always Greg...

Lot's of times I'm dead wrong Lance.... it's just a discussion -- and my view is nothing more than "think about this".... rather than a Do this or do that. It's just an old dog that's been at it awhile trying to have others avoid some of the stuff that can bite them in the ass. My point of view is neither right nor wrong -- it based on just trying to give guys stuff to think about.

I can think of at least half a zillion companies that I should have invested a million bucks in and I'd have my own Jet now.... and I missed them - or sold them or whatever before they went to the moon....

I can think of a least another half a zillion that never ever did what I thought they'd do. Whether that was go up or tank.

I was an early investor in Amazon - Starbucks - Costco - Dell - Cisco - Intel.... if I held the original investments in them I'd buy everyone on here a Rolls Royce.... Starbucks was bought on the IPO at the IPO price and flipped within a couple days for a whopping $500 gain..... I'd bought 1000 shares. At the time - I thought -- how many cups of coffee can these bozos sell.... Well -- Apparently they can sell quite a few!!!

Amazon was an internet book seller.... big whoop... when they couldn't make a profit - I bailed.

Costco was a CLUB only at the time -- and made 10 or 11% markup... How were they going to survive in a downturn? Obviously - quite well.

So when you're looking at a stock like GoPro --- who the hell knows. I don't and we won't know until it plays out.

What I do know is that there was plenty of time to get back into any one of the above names and there was plenty of room to run. A guy didn't have to buy it the first day to get it right.

That's all.

[Vegas69]

Greg, Thanks for the humility buddy.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

Greg, Thanks for the humility buddy.

Welcome! Just don't get used to it! LOL