Investing 102

[captainofiron]

Originally Posted by glassman

Just heard that. I woulda put money on them "going down", meanwhile, my dumass is watching everybody and their brothers buying this product. I really should start paying attention....

Im in the same boat, only thing that keeps me from buying is that I think it will inevitably go down as some other tech/service comes out that becomes hot and makes Netflix obsolete

[captainofiron]

Seagate (STX) took a dump on me today, I was looking at it and my other big performer and was thinking about selling what I had made on them to buy something else, then the rug got pulled out from under STX this morning

[GregWeld]

There are so many "things" happening around the world that it makes a guy have mixed feelings about what picture we should have going forward. Europe in recession... Russia in recession... China growth slowing... Terrorism around the globe.

Falling oil prices are supposed to be a "gift" to everyone's pocketbook. Even I notice the difference when I fill up. Yet - there is little doubt that people in the oil patch will suffer as layoffs occur and drillers etc slow their buying of whatever it is that they need to operate.

HO HUM! The same news with different headlines has been going on since the beginning of time. Just put a different name on a country with problems... or a "monetary" crisis somewhere... and I can't ever remember when there wasn't a war somewhere in the world.

Here's what I have noticed lately that may be a little different. If a company misses their numbers - they get HAMMERED. Not often have I seen companies sell off 10% in minutes after they've reported a miss. What this signals to me is that people want an excuse to sell something. Anything. To me that means people have grown "skittish". Something in the air is making people nervous or unsure. When you're unsure or nervous - you sell.... sellers deflate the price.

The biggest gainers usually deflate the fastest. But remember, if you've been in the market awhile - and the stock has run 30% - and drops 10%.. you still have a gain.

Don't forget that you're the best human intelligence around. How's your company doing. Business good? Are your friends businesses good? Or? Be aware of what's going on around you. Houses sitting or are they sold in a month or so... The restaurant you go to frequently busy or just plugging along... Doesn't mean you need to react in your accounts - it's just another thing in investing to learn. Be heads up and pay attention to your own sense of wellbeing.

[captainofiron]

my Conoco has been hit pretty hard the past week.

My dad works for Halliburton and works alot in the Eagle Ford, and he says they are slashing costs left and right

I hadnt seen gasoline this cheap in a long long time

its definitely unnerving, but like you said Greg, you dont lose money until you sell

[Vince@Meanstreets]

Buy buy buy! well soon.

[Vince@Meanstreets]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

There are so many "things" happening around the world that it makes a guy have mixed feelings about what picture we should have going forward. Europe in recession... Russia in recession... China growth slowing... Terrorism around the globe.

Falling oil prices are supposed to be a "gift" to everyone's pocketbook. Even I notice the difference when I fill up. Yet - there is little doubt that people in the oil patch will suffer as layoffs occur and drillers etc slow their buying of whatever it is that they need to operate.

HO HUM! The same news with different headlines has been going on since the beginning of time. Just put a different name on a country with problems... or a "monetary" crisis somewhere... and I can't ever remember when there wasn't a war somewhere in the world.

Here's what I have noticed lately that may be a little different. If a company misses their numbers - they get HAMMERED. Not often have I seen companies sell off 10% in minutes after they've reported a miss. What this signals to me is that people want an excuse to sell something. Anything. To me that means people have grown "skittish". Something in the air is making people nervous or unsure. When you're unsure or nervous - you sell.... sellers deflate the price.

The biggest gainers usually deflate the fastest. But remember, if you've been in the market awhile - and the stock has run 30% - and drops 10%.. you still have a gain.

Don't forget that you're the best human intelligence around. How's your company doing. Business good? Are your friends businesses good? Or? Be aware of what's going on around you. Houses sitting or are they sold in a month or so... The restaurant you go to frequently busy or just plugging along... Doesn't mean you need to react in your accounts - it's just another thing in investing to learn. Be heads up and pay attention to your own sense of wellbeing.

Plus the airlines must be getting killed right now. They hedge fuel and they might be stuck with 2014 pricing for a while.
Mark my words, this oil drop is going to start WWIII or conflict XXVVIIM

[GregWeld]

The oil price drop is definitely a "disruptor"..... Good in so many ways -- terrible in so many ways... We can't even imagine all the ways good and bad. If you're buying oil to make a product etc -- you're a happy guy! If you're a driller - or in that "supply" side of things -- we've yet to see all the fallout. For me -- I'm just holding what I have... KMI -- ETP -- BPT.... These three in the oil "space". They pay me good dividends --- and that's the take away here. They pay me to wait and see. I'll only get killed if it's so disruptive that they cut or suspend the dividend.

My "oil / pipes / infrastructure" dividends at risk are 124K per year.... so there's some risk there.


Now --- Per my earlier discussion about maniac (ma nye ick) swings in prices.... WOW --- AMAZON reports and the shares jump $40 in aftermarket trading... Alibaba (BABA) doesn't make as good of a growth number as people expect and it drops 8 or 9 bucks...


It's so fun to be on the sidelines and watch this stuff.... and man I wished I owned AMZN and got that $40 pop!! But it's those pops and drops that just cut a guy to pieces! For every POP up you get --- if you're into these kinds of high fliers -- they CUT just as easily on the way down. That's the old "risk / reward" of the market.

[GregWeld]

Interesting how much of a difference being in the "right" stock makes...


I saw that Chipotle Mexican Grille (CMG) was going to be down "pre market" about $46 bucks a share. So of course I had to go see what that was all about (I don't own it)... Seems they only grew their net income 52% for the quarter. What bums!! (being factious here).


Being the stock investigator I am... it's a habit... I always learn something snooping around. I decided to pull up their chart. Bumpy?!?!? OMG.... so real roller coaster ups and downs there to be sure... but remember the big goal? Lower on the left and higher on the right! It's UP 600% in five years. HUGE.

So I overlay McDonalds (MCD) over the chart ---- it's UP 50% in five years. Not horrible. Not the 100% in that time that many stocks are - but it always was a good steady grower. Older bigger companies don't grow as fast as smaller new companies (generally). But 50% vs 600% ----- WOW. So the point is down 50 bucks today isn't a big deal if you've owned the shares for more than about 6 months. LOL

[SSLance]

Anyone following the refinery workers strike (and it's effects on other parts of the oil market)?

My brother is in the non-destructive testing field of work, they do a ton of work for refineries. They have enacted contingency plans as a large portion of their business just stopped or is getting ready to stop completely...until this gets straightened out.

[GregWeld]

As I sit here on the balcony of my room overlooking the Pacific Ocean... and listening to the relentless pounding of the surf... Reading the latest "market news" I saw a news line about Coke (KO) raising prices - which lead to a quarterly earnings beat. Of course I had to go read this and check the price action out. A nice move today on a $42 stock. Nothing earth shaking - no doubling.. just a move in the way the surf does... a little up and little down -- the surf struck me as the way the market works. Sometimes storms make bigger moves - some days are strikingly calm... but it's always moving.

Going to KO chart -- It's UP over 60% in five years - shows a 2 for one split - pays over 3% dividend. 60% over five years is a very nice steady surf like growth in your money. What's more important is that you most likely won't wake up one morning to find half of your money gone in an instant. Very comforting... owning it won't get you bragging rights at the office water cooler... but you might retire quite nicely one day and join me on the beach. Fat and happy. LOL


Just for fun I overlayed the latest market darling.... GoPro (GPRO). No question about it -- had you bought at the IPO price... you'd have a nice QUICK gain of 38% in about a 6 month time frame.... no dividend payment... you must rely on it to continue to expand it's already lofty P/E.... If it can grow the earnings - your price will MAYBE expand. In the meantime you've been on a huge roller coaster. Nothing wrong with the roller coaster ride IF you can stomach it. That is for you and you only to know. Your time line - your confidence - your stockpile. I am not advocating either stock or either way of investing... and the best bet would be to perhaps own a little of each once you're in the comfortable position of feeling secure in your base holdings.


To be sure - my statements about what I'm doing - or my personal positions are to GOAD you all into raising your game. It is NOT bragging - nor is it meant to stick my tongue out at you. Think of it more as a build you're watching - If you're watching Stielow build his cars - you should want to emulate and learn from what he's doing. Money is the same way - or should be... but nobody ever talks about "that"! Investing is like building your skills and building a car... you learn from others - you aspire to be like that guy... or have a car like that.