Quote:
Originally Posted by CRCRFT78
FINALLY I have caught up with this thread again after slacking off. After watching the market take some serious hits I realized I needed to get back on board with what I have going on and put some idle (LAZY) workers back to work.
I have about $3800 in my retirement account and have been considering purchasing ATT (T) with that or adding to my two red positions. CAT is -12.80% and KMI is -28.34%. The rest of the account is doing pretty good.
Do you think it would be wise to spend it all on ATT, add to the 2 in the red or divide it between the three of them? I've included a screenshot of my holdings for your critique.
|
Always hardest to put money into the bleeders... but that's what you do if you still think the company is solid - that the dividend is solid - and if you believe the share price is down for some reason other than the company is going to hell. Remember that if you simply bought the same amount of shares that you have - it's only going to cut your loss a little. That would be called "doubling down".
In your case - let's take KMI:
You have 31 shares @ $41.35 per share cost basis. So if you bought 31 more shares at todays price of $29.63 --- your new cost basis would be 62 shares @ $35.49 per share. That is closer to where it's trading - but not really close enough for "me"... If it was me I'd want to get my share price down to maybe $32 ish. That way it has less to recover before I'm made whole - or I take a loss and turn it into a gain. So I might buy 100 shares of it. Your position would then be 131 shares @ $32.47
That is painful to do - takes this position to "out of whack" with the 5% rule -- but rules are made to be broken IF you think of this as a TEMPORARY position that is a bit of a gamble = in a effort to get you back to even.
KMI moved down with oil - yet it's their pipes that move oil... regardless of the price of oil - a person that owns the crude has to move it to sell it - that uses KMI's pipes... the consumption of oil is not the problem - the oversupply of it is. Regardless - if you have too much supply - you might have to store that - and that means you have to move it to a storage facility etc.
If oil comes back just a little... KMI will move with it. In the meantime you're collecting 6.6% dividend... which is just huge. And you have more upside potential here than you do down - unless oil goes to $35 or $20... which is something we just don't know. Oil seems to be floating right around the $40 level here for some time... and the oil rig count is on the decline - which helps with the oversupply... and blah blah blah.
So it would cost you $2900 of your $3800 available. I'd hold the remaining grand and build back some more cash. Cash is always nice - and the more volatile the market the more comfort you'll get from holding some cash. If you really want to do some math - you'd take the 6.6% dividend you're making on the new KMI purchase - and spread that over the $3800 (if you want to look at it that way) and you'd be making about 5% on that - which is a good return! Even though a grand is sitting idle.
Mind you -- this strategy doesn't always work!! Share prices can fall further - giving you an even larger loss (because you'd be holding even more shares!) - but when this strategy works -- it works really really well!
As soon as the share price approached or exceeded the new cost basis.... I'd sell the original 31 shares (you can do this - as you can identify which shares should be sold) leaving you with the 100 shares at your $29 purchase price... and then your gains can start from that new lower cost basis. I'd then use that money plus any new cash and the remaining cash you had and figure out what to do with that... when you're ready.
Ask more detail if you don't understand the strategy. If you're nervous about this strategy - then let's discuss a different move.
I'm focusing on KMI rather than CAT because the CAT isn't that much of a loss - and it can recover that distance pretty quickly on it's own... if we see China and Europe recover a bit... I wouldn't chase that here. The KMI has the big reward component if oil recovers just a bit - and the dividend on it is fantastic down here!